moonslav59

I'm not saying Henry is ruthless, or that ruthlessness is a virtue, but it does seem to lead to success more than we might think or hope it would.

Being a people person is obviously not a necessary quality to winning or being successful. He got us 4 rings, so all his faults have been outweighed by those 4 seasons. We've also been damn good in most of the other seasons, as well. I think the move to Bloom was the necessary thing to do. Sure, it might suck to have a year or two with little playoff hopes, but I'm confident we have the right guy to get us back to the top. I'm not going to freak out about a bad year or two. I knew this day was coming when we traded away just about every top prospect, except Devers, ERod and Beni. Now, it's time to pay the piper. I'm not sure why it seems so shocking to some. I admit, I was surprised it came in 2019 not 2020 or 2021, but the writing was on the walls. (Sorry for all the cliches.) We still have a solid base to build upon. Bogey, Devers, ERod, Beni and a few others under team control beyond 2020 could be enough to make the turn-around shorter and less painful, but my only worry is that by trying for one last hurrah in 2020, we damage the scope of the rebuild by not getting the most we can out of our shorter controlled players and over-priced aging stars. If Price and Eovaldi start 2020 poorly, we'll have lost any chance at some salary relief via trades. I'm hopeful, we'll go back to spending large after the reset, but that might not be enough, if Price and Eovaldi (or even Sale) become total dead weight like Pablo & HRam became.

I'm not stressed at all about this off season, and I'm pretty sure this "cliff" or whatever it's called is not a shock to management. Maybe it came a year or two earlier than hoped or expected, but anybody who has been around baseball knows things can turn on a dime. (Yes, that also means we could turn things around to the good and seriously compete in 2020 with the team, as is.) I don't think one "mediocre year" changed our roster plans. I think we knew all along that the day of reckoning would someday be upon us. What has changed is the outlook of the big 3 SP'ers: Sale, Price and Eovaldi. The pitching you and I and Sox management sees as the best way to build a true winner. Eovaldi's really hasn't changed much in the grand scheme of things, but after his 2019 playoff performance, we just felt better about his future and paid him too much and for too long. Can he rebound? Hell yes! Will he? Looking at his history, I see more reason to think no than yes. Price has gotten a lot of discussion, including this thread. He's another guy who got our hopes peaked by his 2019 playoff output after being pretty disappointing just about every year before and after. Something is clearly wrong with him. We can try to deny it and hope his "miracle arm" carries us through 2020, but I, personally, doubt it happens. I seriously doubt it. The guy looked as good as Scherzer at the time of their signings, but he's done nothing since 2016 to show much reason to hope. A brief period here and there have flamed the hopes. He's pitched about 350 innings the last 3 years (age 31-33). If he starts off 2020 like he did 2019, his trade value could rise enough to make it more worthwhile trading him, but if you look closely at his 2019 start, you'll see serious cause for concern that even Sox management saw. After his first 2 bad starts, he pitched 7 innings (92 pitches) in game 3 (0 ERs). He never pitched 7 innings again, all year, in fact, he never pitched over 6 innings. He did have 2 starts with over 100 pitches later that summer, but he lost it in mid July. Sure, one could point to 16 starts from April 14 to July 19 and say we might get that for 32 starts in 2020, but I see no basis for that optimism. He ended the season with just 2 starts after August 1st (4.2 IP combined). Those 16 starts: 9-7 3.25 ERA (.664 OPS against). That brings me to Sale. Chris Freakin' Sale! At time, he looked more like Freakin' Chris Sale, this year, but I still have more hope for him than Price and Eovadi combined. However, there is much to be concerned about. His velocity is down, and it may take time for him to re-invent himself. He's got the right attitude and determination to do it, but expecting it to happen overnight is likely being too optimistic. Can he reagin the velocity and not have to change his style? Maybe- maybe not. Either way, it's a huge "if." Certainly things have greatly changed for these 3 SP'ers since this time last year. Yes, the focus was and will always be about the pitching, namely the rotation, so in my opinion, it's more than just a "mediocre season" that has changed the outlook and trajectory of this team: it's the pitching. Add the pen woes to the projections of our big 3 starters and I don't think it's shocking at all to seriously consider moving the rebuild up a year or two. I'm fine with waiting it out, just in case we rebound, and if we don't, maybe have a July sell-off, but doing that may seriously damage the scope of the rebuild- weakening and extending the time it takes to get back to the top. It's a tough call to make, but clearly the top brass has not decided to go "all in" for 2020. The choices, now, seem to be play it half way or start the rebuild sooner rather than later.

Henry was the best thing that ever happened to the Sox. Is he or anybody perfect? No, but he was the number one reason we have 4 rings. He's hired some great people to do what needed to be done. He's fired (or let them walk) most of them,too, but in many ways, that's what was needed at the time. (BTW, many of us hated the CC signing. I called him a "glorified platoon player whose contract would cripple us for years.")

If he's that good, why do you & the Yanks want him gone?

This was the guy you defended to the hilt last winter after I suggested his age was due to catch up to him.

If Bloom had a budget to work with and several good prospects to offer, we'd likely have seen deals by now.

I almost mentioned '03. Also, the year we finished 1/2 behind the Tigers due to the strike.

Eovaldi's -29.5 is mostly due to 3 years left on his contract to just 1 for Happ. Teams were interested in Eovaldi, last winter, and it's not like his injury history is much worse, now. Plus, 3 years is less than a 4 year deal. Eovaldi for Odor or Herrera.

'75 hurt the most to me- maybe because I was a teen. My Packers and Bucks had won championships not long before, but baseball has always been my favorite sport to watch and play. Bernie and Carlton's HRs had me thinking we were on our way. Little did I know the frustration that was to follow 1975 for decades. 1978 sucked, as did '86, but 2004 sure made up for all the heart ache and suffering.

How would fans and season ticket holders feel had we announced we were going all out to win in 2020, then we trade away Betts , JBJ and Price? I'm not sure it gets any harder to dump salary by announcing that intention beforehand. We needed teams to know guys like Price, Eovaldi, JBJ and even Betts or JD are available at a reasonable cost. We need teams to have them on their radar, even if plan B, C, D or lower. Now that most of the best FAs are signed, teams will come looking with more intent and seriousness. That's my opinion, anyways. I expect us to deal Price and JBJ before it gets too close to ST'ing. I'm not sure about Betts. If our return from Price and JBJ is more about 2021 and beyond than 2020, I'm thinking we ought to just decide it's 2021 over 2020 and do some sort of fire sale, but I suppose that can wait until July to decide on that whilekeeping fans somewhat happy.

Merry Christmas!

I guess, if we dump Price and or Eovaldi or Betts and have budget space for some bridge deals to fill slots temporarily, someone like Happ might be slightly possible, but I think Bloom will be looking for pieces that will be useful beyond 2020 at a relatively low cost.

Didn't someone cut their foot getting out of bed? Someone else opening a screen door?

Those February injuries run rampant!

I'm glad he informed us. We'd never have known had an outsider not given us such a deep insight!

2021, baby!

There is still plenty of time. There could be several reasons why it hasn't happened. 1) A team or two might be waiting for something else to happen first before deciding to trade for JBJ. 2) Maybe Bloom has an offer or two but is trying to get more. 3) Maybe Bloom will pay some of JBJ's contract to get a player or prospect worth more than the difference. 4) Maybe we trade Betts and keep JBJ. Maybe he messed up.

I could see us dealing him for a RP'er that may make $3-5M, but who is not overpaid.

If we deal Betts, then yes, we can keep JBJ, but with just 1 year of team control left and a 2020 without Betts, I don't see why we should keep him, unless we extend him to more than 1 year at less than $11M a year. Ilove JBJ, and would love to keep him, but with budget issues, I think we can add a cheaper great defensive CF'er and use the savings to plug holes in our staff, 1B, 2B, C and OF dept slots.

If we can't deal him, we would have DFA'd him. I have to think Bloom has someone(s) interested. The trade value site has JBJ worth +$2, so he's not a negative value according to them.

Here's a trade idea to save on the Lux budget: Eovaldi $51M/3 ($17M x 3 LUX) JBJ $11.2M last arb ($11.2M) Chavis pre-arb Decker minors OF Total $62.2M ($28.2M Lux 2020, $17M '21 & '22) for Herrera $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2 LUX) Marchan (C minors) Maton (SS minors) Morales RHP minors) Total: $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2 LUX) Money saved: $42M LUX TAX savings $22.1M 2020 $10.9M 2021 $17.0M 2022

Here's another one: Price $96M/3 ($31M x 3 LUX) JBJ ($11.3M arb) Walden (pre-arb) Total: $107M (LUX: $42.3M year 1, $31M yrs 2 and 3) for McCutchen $40M/2 (LUX $16.7M x 2) Robertson $11.5M/1 ($11.5M) Herrera $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2) Marchan (minors C) Britto (minors 2B) Total: $72M (LUX: 34.3M year 1, $22.8M year 2, $0 year 3) On the Lux Tax we save $8M in 2020, $8.2M in '21 and $31M year 3 We add a solid RP'er for 1 year. We add 2 OF'ers to replace JBJ, and possibly set ourselves up for a Betts trade. We add some minor league depth at catcher and 2B.

Merry Christmas!

1 year left at $10-11.5M (last arb) is not worth much to the Sox as it might be to a top contender without luxury tax issues. I'm thinking he gets traded for a low cost but decent RP'er.