moonslav59

Yes, I said hoping "enough of all...go right." We probably can't have Sale, Price & Eovaldi go right but Erod get hurt again or decline. We probably can't have Betts & JD return to 2018 numbers, if Vaz and Devers do, too. To me, we have a lot of 30-50% chances of each player having big years- maybe 40-55% chances if being optimistic. Can it happen? Of course. Many feel (not me) that 2013 was such a year, while the evidence shows most players did not have career years that year, but it is an example of a year when just enough went right, including our 3rd string closer having one of the best seasons, if not the best, a closer ever could have. I remember being upset that winter and summer before- thinking we were "playing it halfway" and just trying to do enough to appear competitive. I was wrong then, and I could be wrong, now. I hope I am.

You don't think there's a chance Chavis and/or Dalbec might end up like Middy? Middy: .791 in AAA (62 HRs/286 K'sin 1238 PAs), but... .865 in AA in 2011 (18HRs/95K's in 397 PAs) 1.057 in AAA in 2012 (9 HRs/18 K's in 100 PAs) .835 first half season in MLB (15 HRs/70 K's in 286 PAs) .611 afterwards (28 HRs/255 K's in 948 PAs after 2012) Chavis: .834 in AA (20 HRs/91K's in 413 PAs) .911 in AAA (9HRs/33Ks in 113 PAs) .766 in first half season in MLB (18 HRs/127 K's in 382 PAs), but... 1.186 first 15 games (6 HRs/16 K'sin 63 PAs) .690 next 80 games (12 HRs/111K'sin 319 PAs) Dalbec (Better defender than Middy & Chavis in the minors) .945 A+ (26 HRs/130 K's in 419 PAs) .829 AA (26 HRs/156 K's in 563 PAs) .779 AAA (7 HRs/29 K's in 123 PAs) All 3 had 25-30 HR power over 650 PAs and very high K rates. That doesn't mean they willall end up with same fates, but certainly there's a significant chance Chavis and/or Dalbec may end up being no better than Middy. I'm not sure why, buy I like Dalbec more than the other two. His defense is better, and his K rate looks a little better.

I have tremendous faith in Bloom, but we have to get the budget under control, so he has some room to move, first. I don't have much faith in 2020. I had had hopes this day would not arrive, so quickly, but it's here and now. I'm clinging to some slivers of hope that Sale, Price and Eovaldi will all have a good year at the same time, but the realist in me knows those odds are long. Some players took big steps up, last year, namely Devers, Vaz, Taylor, Walden & Workman. Erod solidified his standing as our most reliable and winning SP'er. Hoping Betts & JD play more like 2018 than 2019 is not a long shot. Hoping JBJ, if not traded, avoids a pro-longed slump is not a wild hope. Hoping Beni gets past his little bump in the road is not either. One at a time, nothing looks too unbelievable, but hoping enough of all these things go right at the same time is a bit of a stretch, to me. That's why I am leaning firmly towards the idea that we look more towards 2021 than 2020. I don't want us to be irrelevant for 3 years in a row (2019-2021). I'd keep Sale in hopes he returns to form. If he never regains his velocity, I have faith he has the determination to reinvent himself into a big plus by 2021 or 2022. Plus, we wouldn't get much back by trading him now. I'd look to trade my favorite Sox player over the last decade: JBJ. We can use the salary relief to help reset. We'd need to trade Price or Eovaldi to get under, and I might just settle on the best offer we can get, even if it looks bad. Keeping both looks worse, to me. (Price, JBJ, Chavis and cash for Myers & Margot might work.) If we can't dump one, maybe trading JD would get us under. He's likely opting out anyways, and we may be able to re-sign him next winter, if we reset this year. Betts is the wild card. We've discussed him enough. My worst fear is we lose him for a crummy comp pick. Everyone know I'd offer him a ton, but I'm not against trading him now or in July, so we can better our longer term outlook before trying to bring him back on a mega deal. The two year players are tough calls, too. I may be fooling myself by thinking we can reset and be back near the top by 2021, and even if I'm right, keeping 2 year-controlled players may not be a great idea, but I want ERod on this club for the next 2 years. He's a winner and doesn't cost much. That's just the type of player we need. Once we reset, I'd look to extend him. Barnes & Hembree could be dealt but only for equal value with more years of control. Workman is a tough call, too. He has one year left and is probably an ideal sell high candidate, right now, but I've always liked him and would like to see him extended. If we wait to July, and he's hurt or not doing well, what then? I'm not happy trying to be a realist here. I'd like to be optimistic about 2020, and I do go through periods of hope, but I'm in for the long haul. I've been through lean years as a Sox fan, and I may be in the minority, right now, and I understand the need to make money in 2020, but I'm thinking we should make 2021 and beyond our higher priority. I'm not 100% sold on the idea, but I'm nearly there. Bloom is the guy to get us there, but he needs time and a reset to get there.

I'm afraid some rosy glasses were received for Christmas by a few of us.

Not likely but he might help during the year. Plus, winning the opening day 2B job does not mean he'll end up being "helpful." He's less than a 50% case, IMO-probably less than 33%.

My list was about 2020 only. Chavis may improve, but he looks like Middlebrooks, to me. I'm not just handing him away. I'm thinking that we could include him in a Price or Eovaldi trade to sweeten the return or lessen the amount of money needed to pay. I like Dalbec better, but I know he may pull a Middy, too.

The blow up would not include Ward. ERod is part of the future. He's the only reliable starter we have. Trading him means we need 5 starters for the future. Ward is one. Maybe Mata another. Trading ERod says screw 2020 and 2021, lets go for 2022. If that's the plan, then follow it all the way by trading anyone with 1-2 years of team control or who is not projected to be helpful in 2022 and beyond. Just don't count me in. ERod is a proven winner. It's basically all he does. The team is 47-14 in his starts the last two years.

No likely to help in 2020. I didn't say beyond 2020. I'd trade Chavis and start Dalbec at 1B, but that ain't happening. Chatham is a long shot.

LOL. I already said I'd vote for Bonds, Clemens, Manny & Walker. That's 4 in 1 year- hardly empty. All way more deserving than Jete.

If we trade ERod, we might as well blow it all up by trading everyone but Devers & Bogey or anyone under team control for 4 or more years. Not happening.

There are a lot of little things that are different from 2018, and they add up. Sure, there are some "additions by subtractions," but it's more than just Porcello & Kimbrel, who are pretty major losses without adequate replacement. No Sale binky-Leon. (Price did much better with Leon, too.) No Nunez, who played more 2B in 2018 than anyone else (6th in PAs on team). No Pearce, who hit over .900 for us after the trade and was huge in the post season. No Moreland (8th in PAs) & Holt (9th in PAs) No Porcello (most IP) No Pomeranz (7th in IP) No Kelly (8th) No Kimbrel (9th) No Wright (54 IP 2.68 ERA) Yes, the main core is still here, but many have huge question marks on health or trends. I've not given up hope, but we need so much to go right, and we did nothing to improve while many AL teams have, I just think the odds are too long to be overly hopeful. It could just take 3 guys to be strong this year: Sale, Price & Eovaldi to have a good chance at making the playoffs, but we need others to step up or not have down years, too. If people are buying season tickets or tuning into NESN to watch Betts play, I can understand it. If they are doing it because they honestly think we will be highly competitive, I have to say I doubt we will be.

I get that, too. I know why they are doing this, but it may likely damage our chances at getting back to the top more quickly. Sometimes just the perception of being good can make you more money.

LOL, If just 24 things go right, all we need is the 25th guy to do well and presto!

I get that, and the plan is likely going to be to sell in July- assuming I'm right about us not be competitive. That way, we sell tickets. We did sell off in 2021 (July) and ended up winning in 2013. I'm not sure how many fewer season tickets were sold the winter before 2013.

I don't see us a being all that competitive for 2020. We just need too many things to go right to have any real shot at being strong contenders. I think not resetting just to give the appearance we will be competitive is a bad plan. If we really wanted to be competitive in 2020, we'd have signed more than the 3 little P's. Playing it halfway will hamper our chances at getting stronger in 2021 and beyond. I understand they have to sell tickets, and I realize this is just my opinion, but this halfway crap bugs me. Go for broke or go for a reset and the shortest rebuild period possible.

That was a head-scratcher. Taylor, Walden & Chavis were the only fringe players that did well, and Chavis was actually just good for about 2-3 weeks: First 15 games: 1.186 OPS Last 80 games: .690 OPS (although the 45 RBIs helped)

It's rather shocking how many unpromising players we have on our 40 man roster. Here's how I break it down: 17 Helpful: Vazquez JBJ (1 year left) Workman (1 yr) Bogey Betts (1 yr) Barnes ERod Beni Devers JD Walden Chavis (?) Taylor DHernandez (?) Peraza Perez Plawecki 5 Questionable (recent or longstanding injury): Hembree Price Eovaldi Sale Pedey 12 Likely not helpful or very helpful in 2020: Velazquez Lin Poyner Brasier Brewer Brice/Marco (DFA'd) Osich Dalbec Wilson Chatham Arauz (Rule 5- needs to be on 26 man roster, right?) Mazza 6 Unpromising: Lakins Reyes Weber Shawaryn Aybar Hart That's over 20 player that are highly questionable at best to unpromising at worst. Assuming 100% health and no more acquisitions or DFA's, here is our projected 26 man roster for opening day: 13 Pitchers S1 Sale S2 ERod S3 Price S4 Eovaldi S5 Perez R1 Workman R2 Barnes R3 Taylor R4 Walden R5 DHern R6 Hembree R7 Brice R8 Velazquez 13 Everyday Players C Vazquez, Plawecki 1B Chavis 2B Peraza, Pedey 3B Devers, Arauz SS Bogey, Lin LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH/OF JD AAA Help: SP Johnson (not on 40), Hart, Houck, Reyes RP Osich, Shawaryn, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Mazza C Bandy & Nunez (both not on 40 man) 1B Longhi & Ockimey (Both not on 40) 2B Marco (recently DFA'd) 3B Dalbec SS Chatham LF Travis (no 40) CF Castillo (stuck in Purgatory) RF Andreoli (no 40) AA Long Shots: Mata, Ward, Feltman, Duran, Wilson

Not me. I actually was surprised Chavis did well for a stretch. Only Taylor and Walden did better than expected for scrubs. (I did not consider Workman a scrub.)

They obviously decided not to spend by acquiring anybody last summer, but yes, the players we called up over the year were not very good. Even Chavis only gave us about 2-3 weeks of good help then turned into a pumpkin.

Nobody is claiming he’s been mistreated. The whole arb process is very predictable. When it does go to arb it’s usually about a very small differential. I doubt Betts would have been upset with the Sox had they not settled pre-arb and he lost the arb.

Somebody asked if the 25-40 slots are much different than other years. I’d say YES!

I’m looking at the bottom of the rosters to compare the #25 to 40+ slots.

2016 Red Sox https://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2016&t=BOS

I'd say our 25-40 players were better in years past. There was no problem with rule 5 this year. We had more roster spots open, this winter, than I can remember. Perhaps worse is the fact that those not needing to be on the 40 man roster yet have been pretty unpromising over the last 2-3 years. There's little hop the 25-40 slots will improve much going forward from within the organization. Here's a look at the 44 players used in 2018- granted several were acquired after this time of the year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-roster.shtml 2016: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2016-roster.shtml 2013: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-roster.shtml

They are all pretty close and equally unpromising. He's ranked 44th just behind Kyle Hart on soxprospects.com. Is there a reason you think he should be lower on my list?