moonslav59

Actually, Duran adds a closer value but plays the wrong position for SD. I'd give Price and Chavez for Yates & Myers in a heartbeat. (I'd even give some cash, too.) I'd jump for joy over this accepted deal (minor overpay by BOS): Price, JBJ, Chavis & $6M for Myers, Yates & Margot

Nope. Maybe DHern or Walden?

I don't think anyone doubts he "has the stuff:" it's about being ready or helpful for 2020.

Isn't Myers an OF'er for the Padres? We'd likely play him at 1B, if we trades Price and JBJ for him and ____.

This whole budget situation has kept us from jumping on some seemingly cheap deals for big named players. We need to get Bloom some room to move by dumping some large salaries.

I like the guy, but we need to cut salary and Pitt is not looking to add salary by taking a larger salary back.

I guess the theory would be to trade ERod for a pitcher not as good as him but with more years of control. This lessens our team value for 2020 and 2021 but may improve it for 2022 and beyond- depending on the numbers of years of control. It's not an outlandish idea, but I'm hopeful we can win in 2021.

Giving $5M with JBJ kind of defeats the purpose of cutting major budget cost, but I'd probably do that deal, if they threw in Marisnick. I know you are not a fan of his, but he plays great D and is versatile. He's not known for his offense, but 2017-2019: OPS .728 Marisnick .727 JBJ (double the PAs)

Trading a guy after his best year makes sense, in theory. Sell high. I guess one has to think ERod topped out in 2019 to like the trade idea, unless the 2 years of control sways your thinking towards a longer controlled pitcher on a longer term rebuild plan.

The trade simulator does not accept ERod & JBJ f(30.0 value combined) for May (55.4). We'd have to add Chavis and Walden to come close. I think the site undervalues 2 years of ERod. That package, according to the site, might get us ... C Ruiz (34.3) or SP Urias (29.1) or 2B Downs (20.6) + C Cartaya (12.3) or SP Gonsolin or Stripling 18.9 + C Cartaya (12.3) or SP Gray (17.2) + C Cartaya (12.3) or Gonsolin (18.9) + Maeda (12.2) I don't think I like any.

BB/PA by 2019 innings: 14/146 1st 11/141 2nd 13/139 3rd 15/147 4th 8/132 5th 14/152 6th & 7th combined Career 47/522 1st 44/526 2nd 37/494 3rd 48/515 4th 32/441 5th 27/334 6th 12/142 7th & 8th This shows what we all know: he has struggled to get out of the 4th inning.

Your thoughts on my Mets offer?

I like Ward a lot, but we will not rush him. We shouldn't either. To me, the most likely AAA players to help us in 2020 are: Dalbec Houck Chatham Shawaryn Mata, Ward, Duran & Feltman are expected to begin in AA. I supposeone could be a September call-up, but we are more likely to give some AAA players a look before them. We also have rule 5 guy Jonathan Arauz and Lin. Guys like Travis, Marco & Johnson might be re-added to the 40 man roster, if they are doing well and a specific need arises. There's also Kyle Hart, Denyi Reyes, Brewer, Lakins, Poyner, Osich, Mazza, Weber and others who could be ahead of those AA guys.

These trades were accepted: JBJ & Chavis for D. Smith, Marisnik & Matz JBJ for Lamb & Barraso

I'll take the 3.3 BB/9 with the standout .714 OPS against (.664 second half). Opponents have a .246 BA against ERod from 2018-2019. The guy wins. It's like what they used to say about Chris Carter (the MN WR'er), "All he does is catch touchdowns." (I had him on my winning fantasy football team.)

Yes, namely the money situations is a big factor.

Here's an example I just mentioned. The simulator did not accept Price, Chavis & JBJ for Myers and Margot, but my guess is if any GM would say no to that trade it would be SD's not Bloom. If I added Quantrill to the deal, it accepted it as a minor overpay- by the SOX! I'm pretty sure SD would say NO! The site has serious flaws, but I like it anyways as a way to explore frameworks for trades. I wonder how often they adjust their rating numbers?

I don't disagree, but Barnes was improving every year until 2019. If a manager uses him right, he can still get 65+ IP without going back-to-back days.

Nobody, except maybe jacko, expects all or most to "regress." The problem is we need progression from many over 2019. Yes, we don't over 2018, but we are missing a few key and many minor pieces from that 2018 club. If we get the best of 2018 or 2019 from all our players, wecould win 118 games again, even without Porcello, Kimbrel, Kelly, Pearce, Pom, Nunez, Holt, Leon and others, but that's kinda wishful thinking, isn't it? Not totally unreasonable to hope most do, but will enough do it? Here's the best season out of 2018 or 2019 by current Sox players: The optimist view: OPS 1.078 Betts '18 1.031 JD '18 .939 Bogey '19 .916 Devers '19 .830 Beni '18 .798 Vaz '18 .766 Chavis '19 .744 Lin '18 .738 JBJ '18 Here's the pessimist view: .939 JD '19 .915 Betts '19 .883 Bogey '18 .774 Beni '19 .766 Chavis '19 .731 Devers .717 JBJ .573 Lin .540 Vaz Pitchers WAR Optimist: 6.2 Sale '18 3.7 ERod '19 2.4 Price '18 2.1 Workman '19 1.5 Eovaldi '18 (1/3 season) 1.3 Barnes '19 0.9 Walden '19 0.7 Taylor '19 0.7 Brasier '18 0.5 DHern '19 0.4 Velazquez '18 0.3 Weber '19 0.3 Lakins '19 0.3 Johnson '18 0.2 Poyner '18 0.1 Hembree '18 & '19 Pessimist: 3.6 Sale'19 2.3 Price '19 2.1 ERod '18 1.2 Barnes '18 0.3 Brasier '19 0.2 Walden '18 0.1 Hembree '18 & '19 0.0 Poyner '19 0.0 Johnson '19 -0.2 Shawaryn '19 -0.3 Eovaldi '19 Peraza: .742 in '18 .631 in '19 Perez: 1.9 in '19 -0.1in '18

I hope I'm as wrong as I was in 2013.

Good to see improvement as he rises up levels in the minors, but his K rate is was still very high: 24.7%. That's actually a bit lower than Middy & Chavis in the minors, overall, but... Chavis AAA in 2019: 26.6% (26.8 in 2018) So, he was getting worse as he moved up and continued getting worse in MLB. Middy in AAA before 20212 call up was at 18% (18 in 100 PAs) and was at just 24.1 in 2011, so he was improving like Dalbec is.

True, but I think Price for Myers makes sense to both sides. Price is owed $96M/3 and counts as $31M x 3 on Lux Tax (SD does not pay Lux tax) Myers is owed $68.5M/3 BUT counts just $13.8M x 3 on Lux tax- a $17.2M per year benefit to the Sox on the Lux tax- about what we are over, now. The Padres basically pay Price about $9M more than they were going to pay Myers. We could even chip in a little money or add a player. Asking them to take on JBJ might be too much, so maybe trading him elsewhere makes more sense, but I'd love to get Margot back. His stock fell a little last year, but he's a plus defender and cheaper than JBJ. He also has 3 years of team control. I'd give Price, JBJ and Chavis for Myers and Margot despite the site saying it's not accepted as a major overpay by the Sox. It does accpet the trade, if SD adds Quantrill.

I agree, and that's why I like Dalbec more than Chavis, but I've found OBP in the minors does not always translate to MLB. Add to this the belief that Dalbec is the better defender of the 2 or 3, and one can see why Dalbec is valued higher than Chavis. I worry about both. Minors K% 25.1% Middy (702 in 2795 PAs) 25.5% Chavis (449 in 1757) 29.8% Dalbec (480 in 1609) BB% 11.7% Dalbec (189 in 1609) 7.6% Chavis (134 in 1757) 7.1 % Middy (198 in 2795) OBP .362 Dalbec .325 Chavis .325 Middy K:BB 2.5:1 Dalbec 3.4:1 Chavis 3.6:1 Middy MLB K:B: 3.8 : 1 Chavis (127 to 33) 5.1 : 1 Middy (325 to 64) n/a Dalbec

For argument's sake, let's assume these trade values are correct (baseballtradevalues.com) 127 Devers 91 Bogey 51 Betts 36 Beni 28 ERod 25 Barnes 25 Casas 23 Vaz 19 Dalbec 18 Chavis 16 Mata 12 Duran 11 D Hern 9 Jiminez 6 JD 6 Taylor 6 Walden 5 Workman 5 Ward Who do I think is comparatively over valued (sell high) players? 1. Chavis 2. Walden 3. Duran 4. Barnes 5. Beni (tough call) Highest Negative Value: -55 Price -30 Eovaldi -25 Pedey (untradeable) -11 Sale 0 Brasier, Hembree and others Who has the best chance at turning positive? 1. Sale Based on my beliefs, I suggested this trade on that site and it was accepted: Price, JBJ, Chavis, Walden & Duran +$6M ($2M x 3 yrs towards Price) to SD for Myers, Margot, Campusano & Quantrill (It shows we overpaid by 5, but I think this could work for us. It gets us under the luxury tax and fills our CF position, nicely and gives us minor league depth.) The site also accepted this much more simpler trade: Price (+$4M) & JBJ for Myers & Margot

Chavis had better OPS and HR/PAs numbers at AA and AAA than Dalbec, but the sample sizes are small for one or both. Chavis's K rate is closer to Middy's than Dalbecs, but all are/were high. Chavis's last 80 games in the bigs, last year look a lot like Middy's second season with the Sox.