moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Betts, Eovaldi & Workman for Pollock Maeda Gonsolin Gray Wong Beaty
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No way we get all 3. Maybe Gonsolin and Gray or Cartaya. We need to get LA to take Eovaldi or Price with Betts. Gives us back Pollock to even up the money a little plus some prospects.
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Negative value Players: Sox -55 Price -30 Eovaldi -25 Pedey -14 Castillo -11 Sale Some other teams: Padres -102 Hosmer -73 Machado -55 Myers Giants -40 Cueto -34 Posey -33 Longoria -18 Belt -14 Samardzija -14 Crawford Yanks -125 Stanton -28 Hicks -9 Happ -5 Cole -5 Britton -2 Tanaka -1 Gardener Cards -38 Goldschmidt -25 Fowler -19 Carpenter -13Molina -7 Cecil -6 Mikolas -4 Martinez -2 Miller Cubs -73 Heywood -21 Lester -21 Kimbrel -9 Chatwood -3 Descalso
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MLB Trade Values website assigns values to players and prospects based on their projected worth and contractual cost. It's certainly not a perfect set-up, but there are some interesting data points to look at. The Sox have just 8 players valued over 20. 127 Devers 91 Bogey 51 Betts 36 Beni 28 ERod 24 Barnes 23 Vaz 22 Casas (the only prospect) We only have 5 from 10-19.9 (all prospects of recently graduated): 19.7 Dalbec 17.7 Chavis 12.4 Mata 12.1 Duran 10.6 D Hern 2 over 90/ 3 over 50/8 over 20/ 13 over 10 Here's what a few other teams have: Braves (2 over 185!) 2 over 90/6 over 50/12 over 20/20 over 10 (9 are prospects) Jays (2 over 120) 2 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 7 over 20/ 14 over 10 Dodgers (2 over 112) 2 over 90/ 7 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 20 over 10 (7 prospects) Padres (1 over 120) 1 over 90/ 5 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 21 over 10 (10 prospects) Orioles (1 over 79) 0 over 90/ 1 over 50/ 4 over 20/ 8 over 10 Yankees (1 @ 120) 1 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 9 over 20/ 16 over 10 (3 prospects)
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MLB.com has Kopech #20. 77 Casas Nobody else.
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Also... David Wells for George Kottaras (a hot catching prospect- beware Campusano) Dave Roberts for David Pauley & Jay Payton Doug Mirabelli for Mark Loretta Josh Bard & Cla Meredith for Doug Mirabelli There's probably more.
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We have a lot of obsolete or near obsolete players on the 40 man roster plus deadwood contracts and one-year controlled players. Would you fret, if we DFA'd or traded any of these guys for nothing special? 4 Salary Dumps or Deadwood: Pedey Price Eovaldi JBJ (one year left) 9 Mehs Hembree Lin Velazquez Brasier Brewer Reyes Weber Shawaryn Osich 4 Players that would be missed but have just 1-2 years of team control left: 1 Workman JD Matinez (likely opt out unless he gets hurt or declines sharply) 2 Barnes Perez That's 17 players out of 40, then these 9-12 recently added players to the list: Matt Hall Jeffery Springs Austin Brice Chris Mazza Jonathan Arauz (rule 5) Plawecki (2 more arbs) Jose Peraza (2 more arbs) Kyle Hart Yoan Aybar Marcus Wilson (likely Keeper) CJ Chatham (likely Keeper) Bobby Dalbec (Keeper) It's clear we have over 20+ players with very little plus value, if any.
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I'd make this offer to the Dodgers: Betts, Eovaldi & Workman for Pollock, Gonsolin, Stripling, Cartaya & Beaty
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If Groome shows promise, we can make space on the 40 man. Right now, we have 17-20 guys we could lose without blinking. If he's still in single A by season's end, it's highly unlikely anyone picks him, if he's not protected, unless he shows serious growth in '20.
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The package without Myers makes some sense, or if they pay all but $5-7M per year on Myers's contract. No way I trade Betts and add a future (likely) deadwood contract. The other part of the package does not do enough to offset his negative input. The MLB trade simulator says the Padres fall short by 38 by including Luchessi & Quantril- not just one! Basically, SD would have to give over $35M, Myers, Campusano, Luchessi, Quantril & Cronenworth to be accepted on the site. I'm not saying the site is accurate, but the offer you mention is far short of even.
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Ward has been increasing velocity and added a cutter. He pitched 25 starts and 126 IP, this year, at age 23. You might be short-changing him. Groome is a big question mark, and you are right about 2020 needing to be his year to show serious growth. You also did not mention Jimenez, but he is pretty far away.
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We should have no problems with rule 5 for a while. Weak farm. Weak 40 man roster depth. Rule 5 DEC 2020: Christopher Acosta Eduard Bazardo Garrett Benge Gary Calvo Marino Campana Pedro Castellanos Kutter Crawford Ricardo Cubillan Chad De La Guerra Jerry Downs Jose Espada Rio Gomez Matthew Gorst Jay Groome Hunter Haworth Tanner Houck Matt Kent Jose Larez Adam Lau Dominic LoBrutto Nick Lovullo Everlouis Lozada Bryan Lucas Charlie Madden Alan Marrero Joan Martinez Bryan Mata Tate Matheny Alexander Montero Oddanier Mosqueda Brendan Nail Brett Netzer Tanner Nishioka Emerson Ortiz Michael Osinski Yorvin Pantoja Keibert Petit Isaac Pinales Antonio Police Bobby Poyner Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Jeremy Rivera Kleiber Rodriguez Jagger Rusconi Kelvin Sanchez Yasel Santana Zach Schellinger Alex Scherff Nick Sciortino Kervin Suarez Jake Thompson Josh Tobias
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The money hit for 2021 and 2022 makes this a clear no. Clearing budget space to reset is not the sole purpose here. We need to set ourselves up for 2021 and beyond, budget wise. Betts is not a salary dump player, so why should we treat him as such. The only way we should take Myers is if they take Eovaldi or Price- or at least give us Patino. Campusano is highly rated, but catching prospects are more miss than hit.
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A good summary. I'd add Ward and Groome as possible pitching prospects with high potential.
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That sounds more like it, to me.
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I looked the other day and was surprised to see us 25 to 1. I also found us ranked 4th or 5th in odds among AL teams.
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Is 25:1 ridiculous luck?
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I hear you loud and clear. Fire sale time. Begin the chant, "Wait until next year!"
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It wasn't a few hours days or weeks ago?
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Chances are Vaz or Plawecki need some IL time during 2020.
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My guess is he will be invited.
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They cost too much. Teams know they need some low cost studs, and a bunch of lottery tickets has a better chance than no tickets at creating some cheap stars. I'm not downplaying the importance of FAs and spending to fill gaps, but the 2004, 2007 and 2018 championships were built almost entirely from the farm of by trading top farm pieces for studs. Yes, JD Martinez, Vic, Lackey and Manny were essential, but without strong farms, we have zero rings in my lifetime. We sucked for decades. The same decades are farm sucked. We came close only when we had guys like Rice, Lynn, Evans and Fisk in the 70's and Clemens, Boggs and other later on.
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I get your point, and the 2013 season is not a shining example of strong previous farms leading to a ring, but the fact remains, we have no rings when the farm was weak for 2-3 year prior to the ring season. Every ring we have in my lifetime was won during or one year after we had a very strong farm.
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Agreed. I think they wait until the deadline. I understand the business side, but as a fan, my choice would be to go for it in 2021 or 2022 and give up on 2020.
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All choices, except 1 involve trading someone at some point.
