moonslav59

Money paid to players no longer on the Sox (lux tax): $16M x 2 Price $13.8 x 1 Pedey $2.8M x 1 Beni We get $1.8M from the Yanks for Ottavino Total: about $31M for 2021 but down to $16M for 2022 and zero for 2023.

With Kike in CF, Verdug in RF and Renfore/Cordero in LF, the OF is a slight plus on defense but not on offense. With Cordero playing well and often (not likely) our OF could be average or better on offense but not defense. Cordero has huge upside, and you know it. I never said it will be plus- just "could."

We have re-set several times before, sometimes for 2 years in a row, so what makes you think this time is different? I truly believe we will go over the tax line by a significant amount next winter or the one after. Henry and Bloom are waiting until the foundation is ready for a serious competitive team to spend large and long again. We spent a lot, this winter, but not large on any one player and not long on anyone. That, to me, was an excellent strategy considering where this team was at the end of 2020. $10M x 1 Richards $8.9M x 1 Ottavino (German) $7.0M x 2 Hernandez $5.0M x 1 Perez $3.1M x 1 Renfroe $3.0M x 1 Gonzalez $2.1M x 1 Andriese $1.5M x 2 Sawamura That's over $40M spent on additional 2021 contracts. (We lost JBJ & Beni.) We had a lot of holes to fill, this winter, and not just on the 26 man roster. We weren't 1-2 big time players away from being strong contenders. Had we signed Bauer and Springer and left 6+ holes open, we'd be no better off than we are, now. Bloom has remade the 40 man roster that was horrific from the 30-40 slots, last year. We now have depth and promising young players at our most high need areas: P: Houck, Seabold, Mata (IL), DHern, Ward, Song, Groome, Bello and more 2B: Downs CF: Duran Casas is not really filling a big hole, for now, but when JD leaves, we'll have Devers, Dalbec & Casas to play 1B, 3B & DH. We also have Jimenez, who I rank above Duran, and J Rosario as OF hopes. Rolando Hernandez and Wong as catchers of the future. Potts & Arauz as IF infusions. Look at all the players Bloom has added and not just the ones we've lost (Betts, JBJ, Beni- maybe Price & Moreland- are the only ones that are still promising future production): Verdugo Kike Hernandez Richards Ottavino Renfroe Pivetta Perez Andriese Cordero Sawamura Seabold Marwin G Arroyo Valdez Arauz Plawecki R Hernandez Wong Whitlock Even more significant are the non 40 man roster additions: Downs Santana Munoz Gossett Puello Potts Rosario C Hermann J Wallace German Winckowski Politi Koss plus a bunch of PTBNL from KC and NYM (Beni trade) Draftees: Yorke Jordan Drohan add 2021 picks

Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold? How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?

This is so true. Even in 2019, many blamed the pen, when the starters were clearly at fault for the vast majority of our losses. I actually presented a game by game analysis that showed the starters lost way more games for us than the pen, and that didn'y even factor in the fact that starters not going even 3-4 innings taxes the pen beyond reasonability.

Agreed, and fangraphs places both the rotation and pen about average of slightly better than average. Our defense is weak, but I assume that is part ofr our pitcher's projected numbers. Our offense is top 5 or 6, although fangraphs rates our batting at 11th or 12th.

"Market rate" includes health concerns. What would ERod have gotten as a FA, this winter. If GMs listened to you and your armchair prognosis, he'd get way less than he would have pre-COVID.

What about the "prospecting" that shows the Sox rotation tied for 15th and just 1.0 away from 11th and a pen rated 14th and just 1.0 away from 8th? (fangraphs) Overall, we are "prospected" 14th, and yes, we play a tough schedule, but projecting wins in the 70's is a bit more wishful than factual. The Sox are about 2,0 WAR away from 10th place- average of above average. (We are also 2.0 away from 15th.)

The pen is also the easiest area to improve at the deadline. If we are in the race, we can improve areas we need help.

We also have Dalbec, who is not being "promoted," but will play way more than he did in 2020 (pro-rated), and guys like Seabold & Houck, who may not be "studs" but can fill key roles.

Duran actually does "steal 1B." His speed gets him many more IF hits than almost anyone else. His speed also makes him close to an average defender in CF, IMO, but I'm no expert on where his defense is at, this moment. I have not been big on Duran hype, and I do not think he is a lock to be a plus CF'er in MLB, especially in 2021, but there is certainly a chance he is an overall plus, right now. If Cordero comes through, we don't need Duran, this year. If he doesn't we can use Chavis in LF, and maybe Renfroe and Chavis's offense can outweigh the ,losses on defense. We have multiple ways to make the OF a plus, including using Kiki in CF.

K's are over rated- both for batters and pitchers. K's suck, if a batter has a .650 OPS, but Dalbec looks to be a .350+ OBP guys who can hit 35+ HRs over 550+ PAs. If he can do that, he can K 350 times, for all I care.

Some very small sample sizes here, but here are the current ST OPS numbers for the Sox: 1.317 Dalbec 1.200 Downs 1.129 Chavis 1.117 Ockimey 1.100 Cordero 1.008 Duran .995 Kiki .919 Gettys .899 Arroyo .866 Marwin .833 Arauz .780 Vazquez .695 Renfroe .654 Bogey .590 JD .508 Verdugo .400 Plawecki

No doubt. I have confidence in JD. He'll be over .800, this year, and likely over.850.

I agree 100%, and we can actually go with 13 pitchers for the first 15 games or so. We play 7 in the first 9 days, then we could go 5 straight days with just 13. I remember the days when, with a 25 man roster, the choice was between 11 or 12 pitchers. 14 is absurd, unless you plan on having bullpen games or your starters can only go 3-5 IP, and you play 28 games in 30 days. Start with 13 seems like a no-brainer.

My projected 26 man opening day roster: IL: Sale, Brasier & Cordero AAA (Bubble) : Houck, Duran, Arauz 14 Pitchers: ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetta, Perez Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Andriese, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock, Valdez C: Vazquez & Plawecki 1B: Dalbec 2B: Hernandez 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts LF: Chavis CF: Verdugo RF: Renfroe DH: Martinez UT: Arroyo & Marwin Since AAA does not start until May, I'd suggest we start Duran or Houck with the Sox and Valdez in AAA.

The Sox roster seems to be more or less set. Who the 25th and 26th man will be is still in doubt, but it is time for Part II of the 2021 season. The Part I link is: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19841-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-I?p=1373407#post1373407 I am pretty sure nobody can say we have not improved from last year, but improving from being near the worst in MLB can be hard to quantify. I like notion’s point about Weber being our #3 starter, last year, and now he’s not even the #3 starter at AAA, and the extent of change and improvement goes well beyond Weber. Here is what we have moved on from 2020’s disastrous season: Pitching IP (rank in IP 2020) ERA: 43 (3) 4.40 Weber 30 (5) 4.80 Mazza 29 (6) 8.16 Godley 20 (10) 7.08 Springs 16 (13) 5.74 Osich 14 (14) 7.07 Covey 14 (14) 7.71 Kickham 13 (16) 4.73 Stock 13 (16) 9.75 Walden 10 (20) 5.59 Hembree 8 (23) 4.50 Triggs 7 (25) 4.05 Workman 5 (26) 21.21 Lever 4 (27) 2.08 Tapia 224 IP Total (43% of 524 Total in 2020) Likely less IP than the pro-rated 2020 season: 30 (4) 3.26 Valdez 26 (7) 5.61 Brewer 20 (11) 5.95 Brice 11 (18) 15.55 Hart 9 (21) 18.60 Hall 96 IP Total (18%of 2020 Total) Combined, we will likely see about 60% of our 2020 IP, replaced by new pitchers or pitchers expected to pitch more, this year. Here are the pitchers who had 0 IP with the Sox last year: ERod, Sale, Richards, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo Here are the pitchers expected to see their IP increase from their pro-rated 2020 IP: Pivetta, Houck, DHern, Taylor I see a chance for vast improvement with our pitching staff from 2020 and 2019. Here were our IP leaders in 2019 with their ERAs: 203/ 3.81 ERod 174/ 5.52 Porcello 147/ 4.40 Sale 107/ 4.28 Price 78/ 3.81 Walden 72/ 1.88 Workman 68/ 5.99 Eovaldi 64/ 3.78 Barnes 56/ 5.43 Velazquez 56/ 4.85 Brasier 55/ 4.12 Brewer 54/ 6.20 Cashner 47/ 3.04 Taylor 41/ 5.09 Weber 40/ 6.02 Johnson 40/ 3.86 Hembree 31/ 5.81 J Smith 30/ 4.45 D Hern 23/ 3.86 Lakins, 20/ 9.74 Shawaryn, 19/ 7.71 Thornburg, 15/7.36 Chacin, 12/6.94 Poyner, 8/8.64 Kelley, 6/8.53 Wright. Projected IP for 2021 (ERA)- 1470 Total 190 ERod 3.80 180 Perez 4.50 160 Pivetta 4.40 160 Eovaldi 4.40 150 Richards 4.20 110 Houck 4.20 70 Sale 3.60 70 Andriese 3.80 70 DHern 3.80 60 Ottavino 3.00 60 Barnes 3.00 50 Sawamura 3.50 40 Brasier 3.80 40 Taylor 3.80 30 Whitlock 4.80 30 Valdez 5.00 (We will likely use 20+ pitchers. I listed 16.) Fielding Pro-rated 2020 innings (2.7 x2020) by innings: Catcher 963 Vazquez 427 Plawecki (+26 others) 1B: 489 Chavis 474 Dalbec 446 Moreland (+5 others) 2B: 549 Peraza 322 Arauz 294 Arroyo 165 Chavis (+86 others) 3B: 1283 Devers 70 Arauz 41 Dalbec (+22 others) SS: 1183 Bogaerts 117 Lin 56 Arauz (+51 others) LF: 452 Verdugo 270 Beni 258 Chavis 153 Munoz(+289 others) CF: 1271 JBJ 94 Pillar (+49 others) RF: 666 Verdugo 484 Pillar 81 JD (+184 others) My 2021 Projections of Innings by position (1470 per position): Catcher: 1000 Vazquez 400 Plawecki 70 (Herrman, Hernandez, Wong, Bandy) 1B: 1100 Dalbec 300 Chavis 70 Marwin 2B: 1000 Hernandez 200 Arroyo 200 Chavis 70 Marwin 3B: 1300 Devers 100 Dalbec 70 Arroyo (Marwin) SS: 1300 Bogaerts 170 Arroyo (Arauz) LF: 500 Cordero 400 Renfroe 400 Chavis 170 Marwin CF: 500 Cordero 400 Verdugo 300 Hernandez 270 Duran RF: 900 Verdugo 570 Renfroe Total: 1300: Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo, Hernandez 1200: Dalbec 1000: Vazquez, Renfroe, Cordero 900: Chavis 400: Plawecki, Arroyo, Marwin 300: Duran Batting: Lost from 2020 (pro-rated PA- 2.7 x 2020 PAs) PA/OPS 586/ .801 JBJ 340/ .795 Pillar 324/ .617 Peraza 213/1.177 Moreland 150/ .355 Lin 140/ .442 Beni Added for 2021: Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero, Marwin, Duran/Casas/Downs More from: Dalbec, Arroyo/Arauz Projections: 2020>2021 OPS Player (PAs) .793>.950 Devers (650) .680>.850 JD M (650) .867>.875 Bogey (650) .844>.875 Verdugo (650) .680> .740 Hernandez (650) .959> .800 Dalbec (600) .645> .775 Renfroe (550) .800>.775 Vazquez (500) .733> .775 Cordero (500) .736> .700 Arroyo (250) .857> .700 Plawecki (200) .606> .700 Marwin (200) Budget A look at the 2021 budget in Lux Tax Dollars: 25.6 Sale 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 10.0 Richards 8.92 Ottavino 8.30 ERod 7.00 EHern 5.00 Perez 4.58 Devers 4.52 Vaz 4.50 Barnes 3.10 Renfroe 3.00 Marwin 2.10 Andriese 1.60 Plawecki 1.50 Sawamura 1.25 Brasier 0.87 Brice 0.80 Cordero 4.20 0-3 year players 2.26 40 man roster players -1.77 Ottavino 2.8 Beni 13.75 Pedey 16.00 Price 15.5 Player Benefits TOTAL: 204.4M (Cots Contracts) $5.6M under the tax line I think we’ll do way better than 2020, but it’s hard to project when we don’t know how many IP we get or how well certain pitchers do. There are also big questions about JD, Cordero and other non pitchers. I project 86 wins and a close race for the last WC slot.

I'm back from Mexico, safely. Had a good time, although some of the tasks we had were more stressful and difficult than we expected. Part II is coming soon.

Great medley and album. It was one of my first albums purchased. My favorite songs from that album: Wag Wah Just Like a Woman Medley you mentioned

Nice summary, as was part1. I’m not so sure Downs is a lock, and I’m hoping guys like Jimenez, Potts, Rosario and Hernandez © make a difference, too.

I’m not sure Papi ever “figured it out” in the sense that he could use the information the next time he went through the same problems. To some extent, I think you just wake up one day and the problem is gone, and you don’t know why. Sometimes the solution is to stop thinking about it. For JD that might be near impossible.

Long men are still usually pitchers not good enough to crack the rotation.

Also, chances are the second pitcher comes in facing the #5 or 6 hitter not #4 as I suggest in my example using the minimum innings needed to get to the “third time around” facing the opp’s best hitters.

It was my downfall for any hopes of being a good baseball player.

Has this changed all that much? In the past, there were times you wished the starter stayed in longer, especially if the team had a good and deep pen. Maybe teams have better and deeper pens. I’ll agree they do, these days. However, when facing a very good SPer, knocking him out earlier is still a good strategy, even if the team had a good and deep pen. Sure, it’s not as good as the days when most teams had weak 5 and 6 inning pen arms, but most good starters are still better that their team’s 5-6 and maybe even 7th inning pitchers on their team. Just maybe not to the same extent..