moonslav59

Yes, rebuilding the farm takes time and is much more difficult than it was under Theo, when supplemental picks seemed designed for richer teams, top players fell in the draft due to signability issues and Int'l signings were not restricted. Many of us tried to say rebuilding the farm was not likely going to happen under DD. 1. We were winning "now" and so our draft picks were lower. 2. We were trading tons of prospects almost every year. 3. The rules changed to hurt big spenders and winners. We were both. 4. We got caught cheating and lost a year of Int'l signings- an area we used to do well. I actually think we've done a good job, considering where we drafted and under this new system. We still are no where near as strong as we were under Theo and Ben, but we are better than we were 1-2+ years back. The farm got better with the Betts trade, and we should improve with next year's draft. Most of our best prospects are 2-3 years away, so maybe we should shoot for respectability in 2021, competitiveness in 2022 and ring competition in 2023 or 2024.

I agree. I do think we'll at least get close to the tax limit in 2021. We do want fans to be in the seats and people watching on NESN. It might make more sense to hold off on the tax for one more year, but we could still spend big on players who will be under team control beyond 2021. We could also free up some salary by trading JD or other big ticket players that don't look to be part of our longer term plans (2022 and beyond). For example, we could trade JD & Eovalid and sign Bauer and Springer. We'd still be way under the tax, so we could add a few mid level players, which is what Bloom may be best at acquiring. Then, go large again after 2021 and go $19.9M over the tax,

"We will rebuild the farm." "Henry will spend what is needed." "There is too much money at stake to allow us to suck for even a year." "There will be no cliff."

LOL. Finding optimism in 0-162. I like it.

I'd say no, but if they view the rebuild as a two year thing, they may end up under, next year. It also may depend on what free agents are available, and if they view their price tags as worthy. I think they will go large this winter, and Bllom may have a mandate to stay under the second luxury tax level, which I think is $20M over. That would give us close to $90M to spend- maybe $80-85 to keep some room for the deadline. $85M could maybe be spent like this: $28M SP $18M Closer $17M SP $10M RP $8M CF $4M SP Or, we try to get Bauer & Springer and fill-ins for the rest.

No doubt. There aren't really all that many pluses. Verdugo, Mitch, Pillar & maybe Valdez

It was a sad sight. It's hard to watch. (A very steep and immediate decline= cliff.)

The fate was sealed before all this. We called it "the cliff."

Agreed. At best, we may see this: $25M/yr SP $15M Closer $13M/yr SP $7M RP $6M CF $4M SP $70M total - still under the tax We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.

We could spend a ton of money, this winter and get more than just a SP'er.

If we trade Barnes & Hembree, we'll have over $70M to spend this winter, and stay under the Lux Tax. If we are okay with going over by less than $20M, we could have about $92M to spend. $25M/yr SP $15M Closer $13M/yr SP $10M CF $10M RP $7M SP $80M total

The Astros proved it makes a difference.

This may be the soonest I’ve ever started this yearly thread. Our 2020 team is on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history. It was not really unexpected. The cliff was real, and it is here, now. That being said, I think we have a pretty solid core to build around, and if Henry opens the checkbook, this winter, we may be able to turn this around much more quickly than many expect it might take. Our 40 man roster is about the weakest from 20-40 as I’ve ever seen, but our farm improved a little with the Betts trade and some growth by a few of our prospects. I’m not seeing much help for 2021 from the farm, however. Most of our best prospects are 1.5 to 3+ years away. Here is a breakdown of what we are looking at for 2021 (and beyond): Budget in Lux Tax Dollars: 25.0 Sale 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price ($ to LAD) 13.8 Pedroia 5.00 Beni 4.51 Vaz Options: 6.25 Perez ($500K buyout) 3.0 Moreland ($500K buyout) ARB Players (2020 pay) 8.3 ERod -last arb 3.0 Barnes -last arb 2.9 Peraza -2 arbs left 1.61 Hembree -last arb 0.90 Plawecki - 2 more 0.85 J Osich -2 more 0.70 D Covey -3 more 0.69 DEVERS -1st of 3 left 0.58 Brasier -1st of 3 left 0.57 Brice -1st of 3 left Free Agents after 2020: 11.0 JBJ 4.25 Pillar 3.50 Workman Cots Estimated Luxury Tax Total for 2021: $141.6M ($68.4M under the threshold). Assuming all options are given and all arb players are kept, here is what we are looking at for 2021: 40 Man Roster C: Vazquez, Plawecki 1B: Moreland, Chavis 2B: Peraza, Arauz, Pedroia (60 day IL) 3B: Devers, Dalbec, C Arroyo SS: Bogaerts, Chatham, Lin LF: Benintendi CF: (Acquisition)/Duran is rule 5 after 2021 RF: Verdugo DH: Martinez SP: Sale (60 day IL), Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, Weber, Godley SP: Mazza, Shawaryn, Hart, Stock RP: Barnes, D Hern, Taylor, Hembree, Walden, Osich, Valdez, Brice RP: Hall, Covey, Gonsalves, Springs Possible Rule 5 additions: Mata, Downs, Houck, C Wong I’d say our top priority, positional acquisitions might be: SP (Ace) SP (strong #3 type) Closer CF RP RP 4th OF SP depth Projected 26 Man Roster: C: Vaz & Plawecki 1B: Moreland & Dalbec (Chavis traded) 2B: Peraza & Arauz 3B: Devers & Arroyo SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: _____ RF: Verdugo DH: JD SP: ______, Eovaldi, ERod, _____, Perez RP: ______, Barnes, _____, DHern, Hembree, _____, Walden Let the discussion begin...

We now have the worst winning percentage of any Sox team in history. The cliff was real.

I'd trade guys with very little trade value, too, if they are not part of our 2022 plan or beyond. I'd even chip in part of their contracts, if it got us a better return or freed up Lux tax limit space for 2021 or beyond.

I did not include him, because his team control ends after 2022. (The team has an option after 2021.) I did not include anybody not controlled beyond 2022. If we can extend Vaz, I'd include him in on the "core," but he's still not really great.

Tell me Betts was not ultra-special! The guy has made contact in the zone, 99% of the time, this year! Mookie Betts not missing in zone WWW.MLB.COM If Mookie Betts swings at a pitch in the strike zone this year, he's not going to miss. Really. He’s swung at 101 pitches in the zone thus far this season and missed on just one of those swings, a 99.0% contact rate in the zone that leads all players

They should have traded him last year.

JBJ is my favorite player, but there are several very good defensive CF'ers out there for a lot cheaper than JBJ's price tag. Either he comes back at a big pay cut, or we move on.

He sure did his part in trying to get us to 8 runs allowed.

I broke my unofficial streak of maybe 10+ years of watching every possible pitch of every Sox game. I agree, this is too sick to watch. I'm still watching most games, of I should say, they are on the TV in the same room I am in, but I just can't get into this mess.

We will likely break the team record for fewest wins in a season, too. The record is 43 in 1932. (BTW, the record for fewest losses is 47 in 1903 and 1912. We will likely beat that record, too, but who knows just how bad we can get.) Worst winning % ever? .279 in 1932 .286 in 2020 .301 in 1926 A loss, today, puts us at .273.

I blame Dombro for the cliff AND I would not trade 2018 for the next half decade. They are not mutually exclusive of each other. I do think, Dombro went to far, but we won, and we may not have without him going all out. Sure, we can look back and say this deal or that deal was not needed to win in 2018, but that's really not fair, IMO. We got the ring, and now we pay the price. I'm hopeful Bloom can turn us around quickly, but I'm assuming the purse strings will be loosened, this winter. We have a nice core of team-controlled players in their prime or nearing it and a few good prospects that may help in the next 1-3 years, but we'll be needing Bloom to be near flawless in his wheeling and dealings. I'd start now. Trade everyone who is a FA, this winter and look hard at those who will be next winter. Even if the return seems light, anything is better than nothing. The core of Devers, Bogey, Verdugo is pretty good. Sale, ERod and DMart may help, next year. I was for dealing Walden & Beni back when, but I'm not sure it's worth it, now. I'd keep Dalbec over Chavis. I'm not all that high on Duran, but I'm no expert on prospects. I like DHern, Mata and a few other prospects, and hopefully, with the near top draft pick, this year, we can stock the farm back up quickly. The Betts trade gave it a boost, but we could use some infusion. Our 40 man roster is only about 20 deep with true talent. That's the worst I've seen it in decades.

It's about getting better for 2021 and beyond. Nothing personal about Workman. He's a good pitcher.

Is that better than last year? (Have we been playing in London?)