moonslav59

A real expert. I still think there's a chance Sale is pitching in July. Sure, I could be wrong, but we were talking best case scenarios.

So the very best case scenario, which one could assume we are in a playoff hunt, is he can only get 10 starts. I agree my top end of 18 GS'd is too rosy, but I still think he may get 12-14 starts. If the start of the season is pushed back, and/or we make the playoffs, we could see 12-16.

This is not "vagaries of memories;" it is a correct recollection of what the rumors were back then. It may be hard to prove the rumors were correct. I do not think there were any rumors of abuse. If I'm wrong, then my memories can be called vague.

Wow, 10 is so far from 12.

I never heard the abuse rumors- just that he was hitting on numerous other players' wives.

MLBTR Yankees third baseman Gio Urshela underwent surgery Friday to remove a bone chip from his right elbow, the team announced. He’ll need three months to recover.

Theo was the master of gaining comp picks. He clearly made some trades with that in mind (like the Wagner deal.) 2003: Matt Murton & Abe Alvarez (Cliff Floyd) 2005: Ellsbury & Lowrie (OCab) later, we traded JL for Melancon & got a comp pick for Ells. Hansen & Bowden (D Lowe) later, Hansen was part of the Manny for Jason Bay deal (another comp) Buchholz & Egan (Pedro) 2006: Daniel Bard & Kris Johnson (Damon) Caleb Clay & Aaron Bates (Mueller) 2007: Nick Hagadone (Gonzo) later part of Masterson for VMart deal (later comp pick for him, too) Ryan Dent (Foulke) 2008: Bryan Price (Gagne) Stephen Fife (Hunter Morris) later traded as part of the trade for Erik Bedard 2010: Kolbrin Vitek & Ranaudo (Wagner) B Brentz & Workman (J Bay) later Workman was traded w. Hembree for Pivetta & Seabold 2011: Barnes & Owens (VMart) JBJ & Swihart (Beltre) 2012: B Johnson & Pat Light (Papelbon) later, Light was traded for F Abad 2014: M Kopech (Ellsbury) later part of the trade for Chris Sale It's interesting to look at a few of these comp picks and how their effects can be long-lasting: Trading for 2 months of OCab ended up netting us or helping us acquire Ellsbury, Lowrie, Melancon and Sale. By letting Derek Lowe go, we drafted Hansen, who helped us get Jason Bay, who helped us get Workman and then Pivetta & Seabold. Hagadone helped us get VMart who netted us Barnes. Some gifts never stop giving!

My favorite Sox SS's since I started following the Sox in the early 70's (note: I tend to hold my childhood heroes in a higher light): 1. Burleson 2. Aparicio 3. Gonzalez 4. Iglesias 5. Valentin 6. Cora 7. OCab 8. Nomar 9. Bogaerts 10T. Guerreo, Rivera, Reese (As you can tell, I'm a pro D SS fan.) Top Sox SS's by fWAR over the last 50 years: 38.9 Nomar (966 gms) 31.2 Valentin (991) 26.4 Bogaerts (970) 17.8 Burleson (1031) 12.7 Reed (715) 4.8 Scutaro (263) 3.9 Drew (163) 3.5 Lowrie (256) 2.7 Aparicio (367) 2.5 Gonzalez (155) Followed by Merloni, Renteria, Aviles, Iggy, Cora, Rivera, Jurak, OCab, Owen, Lugo, C Rodriguez, Reese & Guerrero. Those with negative fWARs: -3.3 Ed Romero -3.2 Gutierrez -1.3 Lansing -0.1 Quinonez 0.0 Hoffman, Lin & N Green

I loved Gonzo, too. I remember, the year he left us, he hit 23 HRs. (He did pretty well, on offense, for us, too.) Although Scutaro did better, on defense that next year, than I expected, I never understood that choice.

The Nomar of pre-2004 blows OCab away, but 2004 and later, Nomar was no longer Nomar. Also, Nomar's defense was pretty bad, despite the hype he received for his running, jumping, twisting throws from the hole, when other better defenders would simply, plant and throw. Nomar's offense was spectacular and second to none at SS, save ARod.

Not every patient is the same. There are examples of players returning significantly earlier than 18 months. A person's drive and willingness to follow the protocols matter. Every doctor will agree. Also, TJS is not what it was long ago. https://www.newswise.com/articles/new-surgical-technique-cuts-tommy-john-recovery-time-in-half My point was that, if anyone can cut down on the recovery time, it would be someone like Sale. (Also, I was talking about 12-18 GS'd not IP. I agree, Cora will start him off very slowly and cautiously.)

If any player could come back a bit earlier and a bit better than the norm, I'd bet on Sale.

There may be games in empty, full or half-full stadiums by the time Sale is ready to pitch. Certainly, there's a chance he gets 12-18 starts. It's not "unrealistic."

...or, they did not attribute their winning to OCab. Maybe thought they could keep winning without him. One interesting note on OCab: when we traded for him, he was known for his defense but had a decent offense season in 2003, too, yet his defensive metrics were mixed prior to and during that 2004 season. His final WAR for 2004, both teams combined: 0.0! That was his lowest WAR from 2001 to 2010. Year UZR/150 DRS '03 1.3 4 '04 -5.3 10 '05 19.6 5 '06 -2.2 -9 '07 12.6 2 '08 14.9 1 '09 -13.0 -30 '10 1.9 1 '11 -0.8 3 Very up and down. His .707 career OPS was not horrible for a SS. He had 5 seasons with an fWAR above 3.1. From 2001-2008, he was one of MLB's best SS by WAR: 35.8 Jeter 31.6 Tejada 30.5 Rollins 25.0 Guillen 24.7 Renteria 23.3 Cabrera 21.7 Furcal 21.6 Reyes Fangraph's Def 88.6 OCab 82.7 Vizquel 78.7 Rollins 71.3 Wilson 63.7 Izturis 60.7 Gonzo 53.7 Reyes 48.3 Reyes 47.3 Lugo 43.9 Renteria UZR/150 11.0 Hardy 7.8 Vizquel 7.1 Gonzo 6.6 Izturis 6.0 OCab In DRS, he was 9th at +13.

Are you a player's wife?

If COVID affects MLB, it might just be for the first 1-3 months, the time Sale will miss anyway.

Realistic- "best case scenario"- he could start 12-18 games.

When we traded Nomar for OCab, I told my friends the trade would "bring us a ring." I felt we were just a plus defensive SS away from being the favorite. Later, the rumors that he was hitting on other players' wives (and more) was widely thought to be the reason he was not brought back.

Red Sox, Matt Barnes Discussed Extension Prior To Shutdown By Steve Adams | December 4, 2020 at 3:03pm CDT Red Sox righty Matt Barnes will be a free agent after the 2021 season, but the 30-year-old tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston. To that end, Barnes revealed that he and the organization had discussed a multi-year deal that would have extended his time with the Red Sox “beyond next year.” There’s no indication to this point that the two sides plan to resume talks, although Barnes makes clear that he’s plenty open to the possibility. All 30 big league clubs were impacted by the lack of gate revenue in 2020, and all are still waiting to ascertain just what the 2021 season will look like in terms of fan attendance, length of season and other factors. Barnes saw his strikeout and walk rates both trend in the wrong direction in 2020, although as Speier points out, he finished the season with a strong showing inSeptember. Barnes’ track record on the whole in Boston is quite good, and the past four seasons in particular have seen him assume a prominent role in the team’s relief corps. Dating back to 2017, Barnes owns a 3.83 ERA and a 3.30 FIP, having averaged 13.2 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and 0.99 HR/9 with a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate. From 2018-19, only four of the 108 qualified relievers in MLB struck out a greater percentage of batters faced than Barnes: Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates. Barnes and the Red Sox agreed to a $4.5MM salary for the upcoming season earlier this week, so his earnings are locked in barring the restructuring of that salary as part of a longer-term deal. Any such contract talks aren’t likely to happen in the near future, however. Extensions are most commonly negotiated during Spring Training even under normal circumstances — hence last spring’s talks referenced by Barnes — and that figures to be more true than ever as teams wait to gather information that will determine their revenue streams in 2021. If Barnes does eventually reach the market next winter, he’ll join what looks to be a rather weak class of free-agent relievers. Assuming a solid season in 2021, Barnes could make a case for himself as one of the more appealing names on the market. -MLBTR

I'm not sure that's the "best case," but it could be what happens.

I think his defensive decline, likely injury-related, was the final straw.

I meant to say $23M, and my research shows we paid him a $4M bonus, $8M for year one and $11M was sent to the Braves as part of the deal that brought us Andy Marte, who was later flipped with Shoppach for Crisp, Riske and Josh Bard. That was big money back in 2005.

I think we ended up paying something like $33M for 1 year of Renteria.

Exactly, but this fits right into my hopes that we get some promising non 40 man roster players for the scrubs we were about to release anyway. Maybe none of these guys even get 1 PA in MLB, but it's nice to increase the amount of hopeful players in our system.

I like this viewpoint and agree. You'd have to be incredibly physically gifted to make the bigs while being a person who wilts under pressure..