moonslav59

No Morton, either. And Chirinos is out all year.

Having 3 guys at the end of our pen that are out of options (Andriese & Brice) or rule 5 (Whitlock) force other- maybe better- pitchers from being on the 26 man roster, but as we all know, we'll likely have more than just Sale on the IL to start the season. We may also want to send Houck down for a few weeks to limit his IP and gain an extra year of team control. We may end up sending Whitlock back or trading him, but he seems to be worth keeping around. I'm just no big fan of Brice, but yes, keeping as many options in the system makes the most sense, so he'll likely start the season on the 26 or the IL.

If that's the criteria, we'd have next to nobody left.

Exactly, here's the pessimist view of the Yankee rotation. Cole looks solid, which is better than only our 5th starter looking solid, then... #2 Kluber: under 37 IP from 2019-2020 #3 Taillon: under 38 IP from 2019-2020 #4 Montgomery: under 75 IP from 2018-2020 #5 D Garcia: 34 IP, last year. 21 years old (111 IP in 2019 in the minors) #6 M King: 85 IP from 2019-2020 (ML and minors) 27 IP, last year. 48 in 2019 (MLB + minors) #7 D German: 0 IP, last year and 143 in 2019. If you total up those IP of their #2 to #7 SP'ers from 2019-2020, it's less than our #2-#7 starers.

Of course, there's a good chance Eovaldi spends time on the IL. His history suggests he has a much higher chance than most pitchers, but I still feel like it is hit or miss for 2021. One could argue he is due for a full season or near full season. It's not like he's very old or has had a recent injury that makes me think it will reoccur. ERod is a tough one to project. While months of bedrest are not the best thing for conditioning, being in great condition is not really needed to be a great pitcher. Yes, it usually helps reduce injuries or the chances of injuries like those caused by running to 1B (his previous knee injury). There are big questions, for sure, but we've heard some encouraging things about his recovery. Sale seems to have some people like Jacko saying he's toast, while others are hoping for his return in early July and maybe a return to near norm by year's end. The subject has been beaten to death, and nobody can really know. I agree with Jacko on Richards probably being the best hope of the 4 to stay healthy and pitch well in 2021. Perez, Pivetta and Houck may be forced to pitch a lot, although Houck's innings will probably be limited to 140 IP or so. I hope we don't need to rely on Whitlock, Mazza, Seabold, Mata or others for too many starts, unless we are out of it early.

Even DFA'ing Springs and starting Valdez in AAA, there may not be room on the 26 man roster for Brice. Pitchers like Houck and Taylor have options, too. Let's say 13 pitchers and Sale starting on the 60 day IL: 1. ERod 2. Eovaldi 3. Richards 4. Perez 5. Pivetta 6. Ottavino 7. Barnes 8. Brasier 9. DHern 10. Taylor 11. Andriese (no options) 12. Whitlock (rule 5) 13. Brice or Sawamura Now, chances are someone on this list starts the season on the IL, but we also have Houck, Valdez, Bazardo, Mazza, Seabold & Mata pushing upwards.

You act like 28, 31 and 33 are too old for 170 IP. Pessimism abounds on the left coast. If it makes you feel better, take 20-25 IP away from those three and add 15-20 to the next four. Certainly, that is doable. It's not a long shot to think some mix of IP'd from our 7 SP'ers could equal 860 IP- the mean for 2019 rotations. 123 x 7 = 861.

Sox Making Progress on a Deal with Hirokazu Sawamura Looks like it will be a ML deal. Bye-bye out-of-options Brice?

If I'm looking for an innings eater with not much of a ceiling, I'd go with Porcello. If I'm going for talent and the chance at 170 IP and maybe a 1 year deal: Paxton. If I want the best of the remaining SP'ers and am willing to go 3 years and break the lux tax line: Odorizzi. Teheran is not a bad choice. It's not like I wouldn't want him, if the others are a no-go, but I'd say no to Walker. We have enough returning from injury starters already.

So, I guess that's a no. He's NOT an innings eater.

You know me by now. I don't put much value in just the most recent tiny sample size. You know Walker better than any of us. Does "inning eater" come to your mind with him or Paxton? (Yes, Teheran has pitched more than both, but Paxton pitches better.) Also, I'm not the only one ranking Paxton higher than Walker & Teheran.

I'm okay either way with Odorizzi, too. I'm leaning towards thinking not going over the tax line is a very high priority. The only way that changes is if we not only look like we might be in line to make the playoffs at the trade deadline, but that we look like we could advance in the playoffs. I think (and hope) we look at our window as being 2022 to 2024 and maybe beyond. Spend big in 2022 and look to maybe reset in 2025 or 2026. If we go over, this year, we may have to reset in 2024 or 2025 (a year earlier). What year will we have a better chance at winning it all? 2021 or 2024/2025? I can't imagine anyone thinking it's 2021. I know 2024 is a long ways away, but I like our longer look much better than the shorter one.

I can see how someone might think expecting much or even anything from Sale, this year, is wishful thinking, but it's not absurd to expect good seasons from ERod, Eovaldi, Richards and decent seasons from Perez, Pivetta and Houck. Expecting all 6 to be healthy and do well is asking too much, of course, but if 3-4 can do well until Sale comes back, or if 4-5 do well with Sale never coming back, we can easily make the playoffs. I don't expect anything more than that, but our line-up has a chance to make-up for some weak areas.

I've never believed in the "crap shoot" theory and provided evidence that it is just not true. Any body that thinks this Sox team can win it all in 2021 is smoking something I wish I had.

Before I take a stab at your query, I want to point out that your 1458 IP point is a little misleading. In 2019, the Mets starters led MLB in IP with 941 IP. The 15th place team pitched 860 IP, so 623/860 looks a lot better than 623/1458. Plus, fangraphs is notorious for underestimating pitchers IP for all teams- not just the Sox. I'm not expecting 200+ IP from any Sox starter, but we have 7 SP'ers capable of giving 100+ IP, except for maybe Sale, and none of them seem all that bad. Here's my guess, at this point: GS/IP Pitcher 27/170 ERod 26/170 Eovaldi 26/170 Richards 26/130 Perez 22/90 Pivetta 22/90 Houck 13/60 Sale That gets us close to the mean for starters in 2019. Of course, some on this list will get less,but some could get more.

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close. 2018-2020 Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?") Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons) If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon. Odorizzi is my first choice. Paxton is a distant second. Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

If we knew we could just barely make the playoffs by signing Odorizzi, Rosenthal & Pillar or JBJ (maybe going over the line by $15-20M), but are bounced early, would it still be worth it? Assume a reset is planned after 2-4 years going over the limit, and by going over this season, we push forward the reset year by one.

I only listed players who have done something at the ML level in the last few years. This post was not about what might be to come as much as it was about what our current players have already done, recently. If nobody has a career year but just repeats a season like 2018, 2019 or 2020, here's the best we would have: 1. Beni .830 2. Verduo .844 3. Bogey .939 4. Devers .916 5. JD M 1.031 6. Dalbec .959 7. Renfroe .805 8. Vazquez .801 9. Hernandez .806 Now, I'm not saying everyone can or will repeat their best seasons, all at once, but given teh ages of many of these players, it's not outlandish to think many can or will do just that OR BETTER! What we might get fro Arroyo, Chavis, Downs, Duran, Houck, Seabold and Mata could end up being significant, but I was just focusing on what we know we have. The rotation is certainly more of a long shot, as injuries are a major factor in what happens in 2021, but we can see some very good recent numbers from many of our SP'er.

Plus, despite "oversighting Perez" the people he chose to list as "being around for a reason" are not even on the top of the starter depth list. He "forgot" Houck, Andriese & Whitlock, too. Here's my view of our SP'er depth chart: Sale (60 day IL?) ERod Eovaldi Richards Perez Pivetta Houck Andriese Whitlock Mata Seabold Mazza Gossett Hart Weber Hall/Springs

Since no key player on the Sox is older than 34, except Ottavino at 35, I have to think it is not impossible for many of our players to put up numbers at or near, or even higher than the numbers thay have put up recently. Below are the best seasons by current Sox players from 2018-2020, unless otherwise noted in blue. I will also include their current age to highlight how few players are past or significantly past prime years. Past prime but not by a lot 34 JD Martinez ('18) .330 43 130 (1.031 OPS) In peak prime years 30 Vazquez ('20) .801 OPS [('19) .276 23 72 (.798)] 30 HRs in last 655 ABs 29 Renfroe ('18) .248 26 68 (.805) [Hit 33 HRs in '19 in just 440 ABs] 29 Hernandez ('18) .256 21 52 (.806) 28 Bogaerts ('19) .309 33 117 (.939) 26 Benintendi ('18) .290 16 87 (.830) Just entering prime or peak prime 25 Dalbec ('20) .263 8 16 in 92 PAs [162 avg: .263 56 113] 24 Verdugo ('20) .308 6 15 (.844) ['19-'20 combined: .300 18 59 (.827)] 24 Devers ('19) .311 32 115 (.916) There are some amazing numbers listed here, and all 9 players have been over .800 in the last 3 seasons. Now, the Rotation ERA/WHIP: Past prime but not by a lot 32 Richards ('18) 3.66/1.284 in 76 IP [('14) 13-4 2.61/1.038 & 15-12 3.65/1.240 in '15] In prime years 31 Sale ('18) 2.11/0.861 [('17) 17-8 2.90- 2nd in CYA] 30 Eovaldi ('20) 3.72/1.200 or ('18) 3.81/1.126 [('15) 14-3 4.20/1.451] 29 Perez ('20) 4.50/1.339 [('16) 10-11 4.39/ 1.414] 27 Rodriquez ('19) 19-6 3.81/1.328 [('18) 13-5 3.82/1.265] 27 Pivetta ('18) 7-14 4.77/1.305 Just entering prime or peak prime 24 Houck ('20) 3-0 0.53/0.882 in just 17 IP

Yes, you are right. I scrolled down to $5M on the lux tax line and didn't see him. He is listed below some making under $5M. Okay, that means we have about $8M to spend. We could sign a cheap RP'er and maybe someone who can play CF well or 2B by moving EHern to CF. We might want to keep $1-3M for deadline moves, so maybe we'll be able to spend $5-6M before opening day.

The thing that is different about this season and 2013, is that we don't really need any career best seasons from anyone, although we could see Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Beni and maybe even someone else do just that. We just need enough players to do somewhere near what they have already done in the past 2-3 years (maybe 5-6 years for Richards). It's not a lot to ask or expect. The main issue is the health of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi & Richards. To me, the return to form of JD and Beni are important, but not as much as the health of our rotation.

If we are going to stay under the tax line, which is no sure thing, we only have about $3M to spend, unless we dump some salary somewhere. cots does not have the Perez signing listed and has us with $8M to spend. Also, using everything we have left, leaves us nothing for deadline moves that add salary.

The Blue Jays might not be done adding players. If the Yanks are really staying under the tax line, they are done adding.

fangraphs projected team WAR Are we just an Odorizzi and/or Rosenthal away from being a top 5 AL team? 51.0 NYY 42.5 TOR 42.2 MN 41.6 HOU 39.4 CWS 37.4 LAA 36.7 BOS 34.0 TBR 34.0 OAK 31.2 CLE (They do have us with the 5th best rotation in the AL.)