moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I haven't heard one person say move Bogey to 3B, this season. What would we do, have Arroyo or Arauz play SS? As much as I'm not a big fan of Bogey's D, he's a huge overall plus, and I would not mess with him. Now, if Devers sucks on D in 2021, and we acquire a good defensive SS, next winter, maybe we can talk. (Yes, that would force a Bogey opt out after 2022.)
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There is a risk, and Pablo did implode while in his "prime." You picked the worst comp, which is understandable from a non Sox fan, but there are plenty of comps where an .830 hitter ar age 24, with almost 1700 ML PAs under his belt, have gone on to do better and even great things. Baseball Reference compares him to Scott Rolen at age 23. I don't see Pablos name in the top 10 list.
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Why should he get worse after age 24? His .830 career OPs, put together at ages 20-23, blows the league average away at 1B and even more so at 3B. The question is, will he be significantly better than .830 for a few years, as he moves through his prime years? It is a gamble, but I'm expecting a big improvement over the next few years. The kid came up raw as raw can be, and he still did very well. He seems to have smoothed out some of the rough edges, but he's a pure hitter. I'd extend him to more than 6 years $150.
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Take into account that Devers was the youngest player at every level he played. Then, take a look at the league average OPS at 1B, and tell us again why Devers, who is only 24, can't "stand up" to other MLB 1Bmen. .815 2017 (Devers .819) .760 2018 (Devers .731) .789 2019 (Devers .916) .774 2020 (Devers .793) Devers career: .830 and is only 24. I appreciate getting a different perspective from non Sox fans, but sometimes you are far from objective.
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RF is a monster position in Fenway. Renfroe might be okay, but it helps to be plus out there for half our games.
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MLBTR on the Sox... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/red-sox-notes-bloom-martinez-chavis.html
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Maybe a .500 team?
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Okay, Vaz will probably be slotted ahead of EHern- maybe 8th or 7th- not 5th.
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Good point. We don't know, for sure. He may start out as our FT CF'er until he proves he can't hit lefties or shows he can. I checked out his minor league splits, and you have to go back to 2017 to find a significant sample size v LHPs: AAA .717 in 97 ABs (1.054 v RHPs in 293 ABs) in AA (2016) .833 v L (64 ABs) .834 v R (181) A+ (2016) .939 v L (59) .744 v R (238) A (2015) .623 v L (99) .592 v R (382) These numbers are more encouraging than his small MLB sample size v LHPs.
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Define "good year." Devers came up at age 20. He hit .819 that year. Yes, just 240 PAs, but still a "good year." His .731 sophomore year was not good- not bad, but not good. 2019 was excellent (.916). 2020 was "good" (.793). He's had a "good year" 3 out of 4 seasons, and he's barely 24. ____________________________ Judge came up at age 24. Devers hasn't even played his age 24 season, yet. He's had 4 good to excellent years after his first 27 game season. He's played over 112 games, once and turns 29, soon. ____________________________ Comparing the two seems rather pointless, given their ages and vastly different strengths and weaknesses.
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Vaz will not hit 5th. Book it. Renfroe/Cordero & Dalbec will all hit above him. (Not Cordero v LHPs) The thing many miss on Dalbec is his OBP. Guys like Chavis & Middy never had that. Guys who K a lot and hit homers are a dime a dozen, but the ones with high OBP's are keepers. Can pitchers learn how to get Dalbec out to the point where he flounders? Sure, but don't bet on it. I could see putting Vaz ahead of EHern, and if Arroyo is in the line-up, him too. I think you and others either vastly under rate the Sox bottom of the order, or you haven't looked at the line-up of the worst 20 offenses in MLB. The Sox will have a better than average OPS from the 5-9 or 6-9 hitters. Better than the Yanks or Jays? Probably not, but that doesn't make them awful.
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MLBTR Chat line predicted Odorizzi to the Jays for $20M/2 with vesting option and JBJ to HOU for $20M/2.
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The Jays certainly improved, and they have a bunch of young players who should only improve, but as we have seen with many young players, they do not always follow a bell curve. BTW, the Sox have a bunch of players approaching prime, who could also improve or even have monster years. Plus, we have a few in the meat of prime. Only JD is past prime, but not by so much that he can't still have a big year or two left in him. Devers is 24. (.916 in 2019) Verdugo is 24. (.817 in 2019 and .844 in 2020.) Dalbec is 25. (.959 in 2020 small sample/ .816 in minors 2019) Arroyo & Chavis are 25. Cordero is 26. (.754 since 2019) Prime: Bogey is 28. (.939 in 2019/.921 '19-'20/.907 '18-'20) Renfroe is 28. (.805 in 2018) EHern is 28. (.836 in 2015/ .806 in '18) Vaz is 30. (.798 from 2019-2020) I'm not saying everyone will match their most recent high numbers, but they have all shown they CAN do well, except for Cordero & Dalbec with small sample sizes. Plus, JD is 33. (.938 since joining the Sox.
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Vaz has hit about .798 since 2019- a rather large sample size. He will likely be out 8th hitter, maybe even 9th. How many teams get .798 in the slot? A Renfroe (.907)-Cordero (.786) platoons looks very promising, but largely unknown. Kike between .730 and .740 is above average for a 7-9 hitter. Dalbec is a big if, but very promising.
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Based on what? The kid was given 10 games at 3B before being thrown in at 3B in 2013. He played 53 games at 3B his whole career- mostly the first games of his career. Judging him by that sample size is pretty sketchy. (I'm fine with Devers at 3B.)
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You sure know how to seek out each Sox player's biggest weakness and act like that's all there is to that player. So what, if Renfroe K's a lot. He's stuck around MLB long enough to prove he belongs. He hits about 40 Hrs and 30 doubles per 650 PAs. He has great splits vs LHPs and has been over .700 vs RHPs. True, Cordero is a huge question mark. Who knows what we get with him? As for Kike, his 2018 "outlier" season was not his best, so maybe a little more research might help. He had an .801 OPS from 2014-2015 (352 PAs) and he had a .752 OPS from 2017-2019 (1113 PAs). Once could easily argue his .607 OPS in 2016 (216 PAs) and .680 OPS in 2020 (148 PAs) were bigger outliers than 2015 and 2018, but you will see what you want to see. I see a decent .740 hitter, which is pretty good for 2B.
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Agreed, and Renfroe vs RHPs is likely still better than Arroyo. Until we know more, Cordero should probably never start vs a LHP. So, one could call it an Arroyo-Cordero platoon with EHern flipping from 2B to CF. Gonzalez & Chavis might get in ob the act, too. IMO, finding a way to platoon Renfroe and Cordero in LF would be best, but playing Arroyo too much is not a good idea. Assuming Devers, Bogey, Verdugo, JD, Vaz, EHern & Dalbec play FT or near FT, the last 2 slots (LF/CF & 2B) will likely be divided based on splits: L-R Splits since 2017: v RHP .786 Cordero .782 Marwin Gonzalez .740 Chavis .704 Renfroe .678 Arroyo v LHPs .907 Renfroe .743 Marwin G .699 Chavis .597 Arroyo .573 Cordero (Marwin's numbers are inflated from 2017.)
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True, and even a batting slot by batting slot comp can be misleading.
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Our 9 hitter has a .798 OPS the last 2 years. That might be the best in MLB. While Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero may be big question marks, their numbers look very good. EHern as the 8th hitter might be top 6-8 in all of baseball.
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My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.
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BOS vs TOR C Vaz >Jansen 1B Dalbec 2B EHern 3B Devers > Biggio SS Bogey > Bichette LF Renfroe CF Cordero RF Verdugo > Grichuk DH JD > Tellez/Hernandez Seems pretty close.
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Maybe you'd like this... 1. Verrdugo 2. Bogey 3. Renfroe/Cordero 4. Devers 5. JD 6. Dalbec 7. EHern 8. Vaz 9. Arroyo or Cordero/Renfroe (off handed)
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Fair point.
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I agree, but his splits scream for a platoon.
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Current Sox Players Splits since 2017: v RHP .911 JD M .874 Devers .855 Bogey .810 Verdugo .786 Cordero .782 Gonzalez .740 Chavis .716 Munoz .715 Plawecki .705 Vazquez .704 Renfroe .691 EHern .678 Arroyo v LHPs 1.155 JD M (best in MLB) .907 Renfroe .868 Bogey .811 EHern .795 Vaz .788 Verdugo .780 Munoz .743 Marwin G .726 Devers .699 Chavis .689 Plawecki .597 Arroyo .573 Cordero
