moonslav59

That is a concerning aspect of Gray's portfolio, but it is just a 7 game sample size, and he was facing some good offensive teams. (.895 OPSA at Fenway and .812 vs Sox batters H & A.) He does have this... .672 v BAL .685 v TOR .701 v NYY Do you buy this ting? (.772 v TBR is not good.)

xFIP does, so what of that stat? I still value ERA+ and ERA- more, and I also look at K-BB% and OPS Against. Gray's .726 OPSA is not great and not #2 material, to me, and when you couple that with ERA+/-, I'm seeing him as a #3. Valdez .667 Bello .669 Giolito .685 My guess is Brez & Co. think Casas is one answer, so no to Alonso. I doubt we sign a DH like Schwarber, so that leaves sideways moves like Bregman or Bichette or a bold move to trade for K Marte. I don't see K Marte as enough to replace Devers and Bregman combined. That would be putting a lot of faith in Casas, Mayer and 300 more PAs from Anthony, and that's if we still have Duran and Abreu after trading for KMarte.

I dont think Gray is a dandelion. I think he has the upside to be a Rose, but at age 36, I doubt it. Some stats show he's a Rose, and with the posters talking him up, it seems they have always valued FIP, so I don't think they are stretching to find silver linings. Maybe some will be happy with Gray replacing Gio and Bregman coming back as a push. Maybe some will be upset but not by enough to raise a storm. I'll be pissed, but I'm always going to be a Sox fan. I've been a fan through worse than this and longer than this. I think our future looks brighter with so many really good players- many locked up for many years, as well as more young pitching prospects than I've ever seen on a Sox team, at least since the Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda years. I've call what these guys have been doing a "sham." I think the sham ended last winter, but with the Devers dump and the loss of Bregman and Gio, they must prove it's still over, or I'll be driving the sham wagon, again. We have a window that can be wide open for 4-5 years- maybe even more. In the past, it seems like JH has been good at realizing that and acting accordingly. I will not project he'll do that this winter, because I'm skeptical, but I'm not going all doom & gloom until the winter additions are over. I preferred better than Gray, but IMO he's better than Wacha/Hill, Buehler, Gio, Sandoval and all the others that flamed out. My top priorities were a mega bat to replace Devers, a solid #2 SP and another good bat. We got a borderline 2/3 SP'er and have yet to address the offense. Time will tell, but I'm watching every Sox game I can, until I die, even if we add nobody else.

Nobody is buying the idea than a Dandelion is a Rose. It won't be tolerated.

I never fully bought into the whole "wilts in the spotlight" thing. Sometimes pitchers just have a bad year. He was coming off two injury shortended seasons in that bad 2018 season. It's notable that his worst season was with OAK- certainly no spotlight's there. He's had only 3 seasons below 100 ERA+ 2016 OAK 2018 NYY 2025 STL His next 3 worst seasons: STL, CIN, OAK, so one of his worst 6 seasons was in NY. His 2017 season was in the middle with a 122 ERA+.

Those are numbers, how do you rate them? Would it take a similar package as Crochet's to get Ryan? (No way Gore should get close to what the CWS got for GC.)

His contract is, but yes, if we add 2 infielders, that add offense, then he's fine at DH. I'm not sure I'd count Casas as one of those infield additions, but Brez & Co probably are. (I doubt we sign Alonso. Maybe we add J Bell or Hoskins.) If we settle on just Bregman or Bichette, our offense did not get any better than it was opening day 2025 (with Devers & Bregman- not to mention Refsnyder.) If add just one bat, to me K Marte would be the best, and since we hardly used any major trade capital to get our SP'er, I think we can find a way to outbid everyone else for KMarte. We'll have to make do with Mayer/Romy at 3B and Casas (Romy) at 1B with Masa (Romy or Ref?) at DH. If we only add one bat, I might switch my call to trade Duran, but instead trade Rafaela with others for KMarte. We'd need Duran's bat. This might be the line-up, which still looks worse than the one with Devers, Bregman and Anthony: 1. L Anthony CF 2. S KMarte 2B 3. L Duran LF 4. L Casas 1B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF (R Ref RF) 7. L Masa DH/ R Ref or Romy DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

Good point.

And, xFIP shows Gray was a top 30 SP'er in 2025. (Cease, too.) 100+ IP in '25 1. Crochet 2.64 12. Gray 3.07 18. Valdez 3.34 20. Cease 3.56 21. Suarez 3.61 26. Bubic 3.63 28. Lodolo 3.66 30. Ryan 3.70 _______________ #2's???? 34. Gore 3.78 36. M Kelly 3.81 58. Gallen 4.12 _________________ #3's???? 62. M Keller & Bibee 4.17 65. Alcantara 4.19 73. Singer 4.25 86. Bello 4.39 98. Giolito 4.59 (127 pitchers in sample size.)

He did get a couple shots later, but it's too early to know what his true upside is.

For two to three seasons it has not been "CHEAP," it's been "SHORT." $39M/2 Gio, $21M/1 for Buehler than $21M/1 for Gray is a lot. True, it's even not as much AAV as Cease, but it's not chump change, either. It's over double the AAV on Richards, Kluber, Wacha+Hill and Sandoval. I'm not making excuses. I agree with you that Gray is not a #2, and the talk was more about a high 2 or co-ace with Crochet, so it makes it even worse. On Valdez, he just turned 32 and has had some "issues" in HOU. Suarez is 30 and is a solid #2, in my book. 2025 fWAR: 4.0 Valdez & Suarez, 3.6 Gray, 3.4 Cease (3.1 Ryan & 2.8 Lodolo are some guys mentioned as #2 additions) FIP: 3.21 Suarez, 3.37 Valdez, 3.39 Gray, 3.56 Cease, 3.74 Ryan & Gore (all top 30 in MLB) Lodolo at #35 at 3.81 ERA-: 75 Suarez & Lodolo, (78 Bello & 80 Gio) 83 Ryan (all top 30) then...90 Valdez (37th) 99 Gore (58th) 104 Gray (69th) 112 Cease (81st) 3 Year numbers: fWAR 12.8 Gray (5th) 12.1 Valdez (8) 11.7 Cease (9) 9.6 Suarez (15) 8.6 Ryan (27) 7.3 Gore (40) Pretty much all were 1's or 2's. FIP: #10 Gray, 16 Valdez, 20 Cease, 21 Suarez, 35 Ryan, 48 Gore, 54 Lodolo ERA- 19th Valdez, 23 Suarez, 32 Gray, 39 Ryan, 51 Lodolo, 58 Gore,102 Cease. I really don't want Valdez, although I think he will be better than Gray. Suarez would be great but is out of JH's range from day one. To me, we have a longshot chance at landing Lodolo, Alcantara, Gore or Ryan, but two big bats are my two top priorities, now that we have Gray at $21M.

How would you rate where Ryan is now versus where Crochet was when traded? Pretty close? It's hard to not let what Crochet did, this season to interfere with this comp.

The trade made us better, for sure, and the odds are low we will look back and say, I wish we still had Clarke or Fitts, but then again, we may have felt that way about Priester. The focus needs to turn to replacing Bregman and 1/2 Devers. There really needs to be a gain, since we can't really count on Gray doing much better than the 2025 Gio. Signing Bregman or Bichette is a push on replacing Bregman. Replacing Devers is the real challenge. To me, KMarte is the best choice with Alonso or Schwarber as close. Signing both Bregman and Bichette is not really a power boost, but could be enough. (I'm not sure we afford both after adding $21M for Gray, so I'm thinking trading some salary for KMarte works better.)

FIP and xFIP have grown on me in recent years, and I like your point about GB/FO ratios, but there are too many exceptions that keep me skeptical. Here are some of the largest differentials between ERA and FIP: Better FIP .52 Luzardo .41 Syndergaard .38 Kirby .35 Nola .29 Gray .28 Webb .26 Sale _______________ Better ERA .49 Kershaw .45 Urias .41 Verlander .38 Fried .36 Buehler .33 Bassitt .26 deGrom ______________ Some interesting names on each list. How about the highest FIPs of the ERA- leaders? ERA- Rank v FIP Rank 7. Verlander 3.45 (18th in FIP) 13. Urias 3.66 (31st in FIP) 16. Bauer 3.69 (33rd) 23. Hamels 4.28 (95th)

I had hoped for better than Gray, but honestly, he seems like a much better bet than Buehler was, than Sandoval was, than Paxton & Kluber were, than Wacha & Hill were, than Kluber & Richards were and certainly better than Martin Perez was. If we check the 2 big bat boxes at 2 of these positions, I'd be fine with this winter: 2B, 3B, 1B or maybe DH I'd count Bregman, Bichette or Polanco as one, but not if they are the best bat we add. IMO, we need one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber. A second bat from the above group would be great, but more likely the best we can hope for might be KMarte or Alonso plus Realmuto.

2025 Lists (120+ IP) A> Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Webb, Sale, Eovaldi, Crochet, Luzardo, Yamamoto, Wheller B> Eovaldi, Skenes, Skubal, C Sanchez, Yamo, Brown, Crochet, Sale, Wheller, Peralta C> Skubal, Skenes, C Sanchez, Crochet, Webb, Luzardo, Yamo, Fried, Brown, Gausman (A= FIP, B=ERA-, C= fWAR)

I like ERA+/ERA- more than FIP. There are just too many really good pitchers who never had great FIPs. That being said, FIP has real value, and not many pitchers have great FIP numbers and fail or are mediocre. Here are 3 lists of the top 10 SP'ers over the past 10 years: which do you think is most accurate? 600+ IP A. Scherzer, deGrom, Wheeler, Nola, Cole, Sale, Verlander, Gausman, Kershaw, Gray B. deGrom, Sale, Webb, Skubal, Bieber, Kershaw, Scherzer, Wheeler, Burnes, Fried C. deGrom, Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Fried, Burnes, Verlander, Woodruff, Skubal, Bieber It's kinda hard to pick. I'd go A-C-B. That's fWAR-ERA--FIP

If I had to bet, it might be on Bregman, Realmuto & Matz Maybe Okamoto & Matz.

If my assessment is right, what other team has so much upside promise, in terms of quantity? We have a sure fire #1. Everyone agrees. We have 4 pitchers with #2 upside potential or have already pitched like one. We have another 6 with #3 upside potential. I'd be fine saying Criswell is a #4 tops, so 10 pitchers with that much upside is rather stunning. My guess is one gets traded with an OF'er to upgrade the infield or maybe get that "real #2" that was talked about.

I think Merloni thinks it would be better for the top brass to just come clean with the fans. Don't tell the fans they want a co-ace, trade for Gray and then not explain if he's the co-ace or not. Don't say we need a serious power upgrade and end up with Bregman and Realmuto. I can understand not telling the fans "We are rebuilding for 4-5 years" after the 2018 or 2019 season. They needed to sell tickets, but a 4+ year sham is pushing some boundaries.

I kinda feel the same, but I think the inside track will be to the experienced, first: Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins/Harrison (maybe in that order.) A great ST'ing by anyone, including a rookie, could jump any of these 6 into the rotation. This from a guy who does not put much stock into ST'ing numbers. That's how bunched up they all are.

He's got a rock solid .757 OPS in AAA!

He should play the full season at WOO

We can't agree on what a #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 are on this site, and then we all have different ideas on what numbers are more important than others, so asking us to place out pitchers into these categories is bound to get wild fluctuation. My methodology is to say you are a number one, if you are a top 30 pitcher in many of the stats that matter to me: ERA-/ERA+, fWAR more than bWAR, FIP and maybe K-BB%. (WAR factors in IP alot, so I don't need that included. A Number two is 31-60, #3 61-90 and so on... What I think is interesting about our SP'er ratings is than so many have pretty high ceilings. One could argue many have low floors, too. The pitchers we have with significant experience have already shown they can pitch well for a season or two, but again, almost all have a bad season or two, as well. Determining their ceiling could be just saying they can repeat their bast year. Only Gray is old enough to say that is unreasonable to expect or even hope for. Here is my floor-ceiling ratings for our SP'ers. High 1- Mid 1 Crochet Mid 2- mid 4 Gray Low 2- high 4 Bello High 3- low 4 Sandoval (Had a 3.7 fWAR in '22 & 2.3 in '23) High 3-mid/low 5 Crawford (2.4 in '23 not fully a SP) Mid 3- low 5 Harrison Mid 3- low 5 Dobbins Low 3- low 6 Criswell Mid 2-???? Early Mid 2-???? Tolle Mid 3-???? Perales

Maybe we get Gore or Lodolo, but more likely no other SP'er.