We are about 1/7th of the way through the season, and let's see how many players are clearly over-achieving and may realistically be expected to regress to the norm:
1.199 JD- The guy did hit 1.066 in '17 and 1.031 in '18, so although this is 130-160 points higher than those seasons, it's not really a gross over-achievement, thus far.
.975 Bogey- He's in peak prime and hit .939 in '19. No surprise, here. He could even end up higher.
.908 Verdugo- He's still nearing peak prime and has been on the rise every season from his rookie year. Some may find a jump from .844 in '20 to .908 extreme, but not me.
.907 Devers- Call me biased, but I have been projecting a monster year by Devers at some point between ages 25-29, maybe more than just one season. He hit .917 in '19, so it should not shock anyone, if he ends up over 1.000.
.771 Arroyo- Maybe the best candidate beyond JD for "regression," but the guy did hit .736, last year, so this isn't really surprising.
.727 Kike- Pretty much what should have been expected. (I expected better CF defense, but that's me.) He hit .744 from '17-'20,so maybe we can expect better?
.692 Vaz- Vaz had a .798 OPS from '19-'20. This is a disappointment. I expect an improvement, here. He did hit .540 in '18,so who knows?
.677 Marwin- The "trash can season" has made it difficult to judge his highest upside, but he did hit over .733 in both '18 & '19. Once could expect an improvement, even in a season where hitting is down.
.646 Dalbec- Hard to know what this kid can and will do. I love his ability to get on base- not just his power, but he has struggled out of the gate. I'd like to think he's better than a coin flip, but we do have Marwin, Chavis and maybe even Ockimey/Casas in the wings.
.510 Cordero- No way anyone can project his future. He's certainly shown better than this, but his sample sizes are so scattered, it's impossible to much of anything.
.496 Renfroe- This guy has killed lefties for years. He really shouldn't play much once a righty comes in, but with a limited bench, he has been forced to play beyond his means. He's actually over .740 vs lefties, this year, so maybe, if we start using Marwin and Kike in the OF more often, we can get him into a platoon routine.
.471 Plawecki- The guy hit .708 from '17-'20, a very respectable number for a back-up catcher, these days.
So, these guys have sucked on D and not been good at base running. Can anyone honestly look at the totality of this group and say they have been overachieving, so far?
Now, the pitching is another story. I'll do a data dive on them, first thing in the morning, but again, you might be surprised how unsurprising some of our pitching overachievers really are.