I wasn't so sure about Arroyo either, but not much more so with Cordero or Renfroe off-handed (or Marwin).
I also felt like the chances were better that one from the 5 or 6 had a better chance than just Arroyo. (Arroyo, Chavis, Marwin, Arauz, Munoz/Downs)
BTW, ir's early, yet. Plenty of time for Arroyo to prove Cordero and Renfroe, even off handed, are better than him.