moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Baseball
Wouldn't you expect these types of variances by randomly generating numbers based on the playoff sample sizes and regular season stats? How does just showing one pitcher did way better than another prove it is because the sample size was mostly clutch. If you looked at pitcher stats for Monday vs Tuesday or the moth of June vs the month of July, you'd see similar variances, but you'd probably not claim Kershaw has a special Monday or June skill that others do not possess, right? -
I'm no expert on Sox prospects, especially at the lower levels, but these numbers look encouraging: OPS Against: .703 Blalock (60 IP) .680 DiValerio (54) .707 Kwiatkowski (51) .579 C Cobb (51) .524 Roedahl (45) .576 Fernandez (36) .440 B Walter (31) OPS .961 Joe Davis (189) .871 Groshans (141) .864 Yorke (271 ABs) .786 Northcut (274) .834 S Scott (212)
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Having Monday, Thursday and Monday off in the next 8 days should help us limit having to over use our best RP'ers, but even if our pen does well, this week, I'll still be concerned, as I am with our starters and defense, too. The offense is the only thing I know can and will bounce back from bad stretches.
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With Shaw, the answer might be a 50-50 guess, at best.
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..and of course, I'll repeat the refrain, "He can't hit any worse than Cordero, Marwin or _____!"
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Papi did defy the bell curve by having his 4th best OPS year at age 40- hhis last year. He also had his best OPS+ year at age 36, 3rd best at 40, and 5th best at 37. His 7th best was at age 35. His worst 3 OPS+ with the Sox, were ages 32, 33 and 34, which many, including myself felt were signs of continued decline. His best, in order: 36, 31, 40, 30, 37, 29, 35, 28, 27, 38, 39 It's almost a perfect pattern of alternating pots 34 years with pre 31 years. The normal peak years (maybe 28-30) were not his best.
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Our poor defense is one reason I want to see Kike in CF. It's not enough to move the needle that much, but any little bit helps. The question is, which is better? Kike> Duran in CF or Kike> Arroyo at 2B?
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That's what they said before Cruz and JD signed their last deals.
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He certainly might, but what makes you think he'll buck the trend of most players his age? Yes, he works harder and studies the game more than just about anyone, but he's already shown signs of slowing down a bit and having longer "slumps," if you call hitting .725 for a month a slump. OPS+ 144 in 3 years prior to his peak at 171 from 2017-2018 at ages 29-30 (the normal meat of prime) 129 from 2019-2021. (120 from 2020-2021) Even his 2019 season was slightly below his 2014-2016 three year span. I have to think he'll stay around 125-140 for 2021 and more like 120-135 in 2022, with continued decline afterwards to some degree. Who knows, maybe he's the next Dwight Evans or Nelson Cruz.
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If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.
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I think he actually surprised people at how not horrible he was at 2B.
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No, but if we have to PH for someone, or someone gets hurt late in a game, I'd rather have Shaw at 2B than Cordero or Vaz.
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As better options than Rios/Valdez? I'm not seeing any, but it is interesting to talk about it.
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I'd say, right now, with Schwarber's defense at 1B in question, Shaw might be more valuable than Cordero & Arauz. I like Munoz, but I'll leave that choice to Bloom. When we expand to 28, my guess is we go with 14 pitchers and 14 everyday players. With 100% health, I see no room for Shaw either, but he may be close to equal to our 14th everyday player. 14 pitchers: Sale Eovaldi ERod Pivetta Houck Barnes Ottavino Whitlock Richards Perez DHern (may miss Sep) Taylor Sawamura Last pitching slot: Brasier, Valdez, Davis, Robles, Rios, Seabold, Andriese 14 Non Pitchers Vaz Plawecki Schwarber Dalbec Arroyo Devers Bogey Verdugo Kike Renfroe Duran JD M last 2 slots: Arauz, Cordero, Wong, Shaw, Santana (DFA'd by SEP?) & maybe Munoz (not on 40, right now.) To make room for Munoz on the 40, we may first have to "make room" for Brasier (60 day IL) &Taylor (COVID list).
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Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Baseball
Good point. Just the word skill is enough. Can a player repeat the skill in clutch situations in a better manner he does in non clutch situations. It's really the same as saying it is a skill. Papi had better hitting skills than most players and hit better in the clutch than most players by about the same amount. If his clutch stats were better than his non-clutch stats, could he sustain that over a long period of time? With randomly generated numbers, would we see more than the expected amount of players with very good or very bad stats in the clutch? If yes, that would be evidence it is a sustainable skill. If not, it is evidence, but not conclusive proof, that clutch is not a skill. -
That's why I posted it! LOL!
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Our pitching staff is 3rd in fWAR in the AL- barely ahead of TBR and OAK, but significantly ahead of HOU, SEA and way ahead of TOR. ERA is deceptive due to home parks and strength of opponent's offense teams face. Our xFIP is 4th, and it's our defense that is killing our pitching numbers, IMO. We are killing ourselves in BAbip- the worst in the AL by a lot. .324 BOS .312 BAL .306 KCR .299 LAA Wanna see who 7 of the best teams in the AL are? Look at the lowest BAbip #s: .270 HOU .279 NYY .282 CWS .283 OAK .284 TOR .285 CLE .286 TBR .289 SEA Those are the top 7 of the top 8 teams in the AL, except for the Sox. Our ERA- is 7th and behind every contender, except SEA. Our WHIP is a pathetic 13th. It's our defense- not our pitching. (Note: I'm losing my faith in UZR/150 as it shows us with the top D in the AL. (DRS shows us 6th best in the AL.)
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I thought we were looking at who can help, now, and are not on the current 26.
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I expect him to slowly keep declining as he ages, like most players do. Do you expect him to repeat 2018 or 2019? Of course, he may, but he could repeat 2020, too. I'd expect a slow decline, but slowly declining from .920 is still damn good.
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Actually, I don't even look at sample sizes that small and scattered when making suggestions. I still like Cordero, but now is not the time to give him a look. He should be playing everyday in AAA. Shaw is better, for now and for what we need, now.
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No, never starting. I clearly said, "late inning defensive replacement for Schwarber."
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Agreed, but he plays it better than Cordero, and having the option of playing him there helps Cora with late inning flexibility.
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It's almost a perfect bell curve, if you throw out 2020's sort season.
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I never noticed Rios was sent down. He did okay for a bit.
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Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Baseball
It seems like some people imply those who think it is not a repeatable skill deny even the existence of the concept. (Haven't heard that in a while, though, so maybe they have realized the folly.)
