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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Correct. My bad. The worst I can find, without going back too far is you've won 4 of the last 7.
  2. moonslav59
    Fun with numbers... Dalbec is at ... .957 since July 21st (last game at TOR) .832 since July 9th (first game vs PHI) .827 since June 28th (first game vs KCR) .812 since June 15th- 2 months! .809 since June 5th. You have to go back to June 3rd to get a sample size below .800 with Dalbec.
  3. moonslav59
    Who was the last good or great IFA we signed?
  4. moonslav59
    If it's a skill, what happened to Josh Beckett in 2008-2009? His regular season ERA those 2 years was 3.93. His career was 3.88. Before 2008, he was on pace to become one of the most "clutch" pitchers in the history of MLB. The rest of his post season saw him have a 7.71 ERA (18 ERs in 21 IP) How about Mr. Choke Barry Bonds?
  5. moonslav59
    So you'd expect about 1 time of 74 heads per 1 million sample sizes. ~2 per million at 73. ~1 per 100K at 72 (or 6 per million). 2 per 100K at 71 (16 per million). 4 per 100K at 70. Maybe had I said 70, my point would have been more realistic.
  6. moonslav59
    How about 73 Heads? LOL
  7. moonslav59
    Impressive stat get! Not that impressive a stat.
  8. moonslav59
    You don't think, if you flip a coin in 100 times sample sizes- a million times, one or two might come up 75 heads?
  9. moonslav59
    They should change their name from the O's to the M's, but keep the cool logo. "The Morioles"
  10. moonslav59
    I cherry-picked the worst, which is not bad at all. You've won 3 of the last 6.
  11. moonslav59
    Not only does not playing Monday help our pen, not playing Thursday also helps Cora by not needing to "save" anyone for the next day.
  12. moonslav59
    I believe studies have shown that randomly generated samples mirror almost exactly what happens in reality. Kimmi knows more about this, but I do remember reading the linked articles she provided, long ago.
  13. moonslav59
    His Tuesday sample size is large, too.
  14. moonslav59
    He's never played over 200 innings at 2B, until this year. Last year, he looked kinda shaky. When the moved him 10 1B, instead of Kike, who had actually played 1B in MLB over 80 innings, I figured Cora liked Kike's D at 2B more than Arroyo's. I think Cora once said Kike was the best defensive 2B in the league, too. So there is that. I agree on Kike>>> Duran in CF.
  15. moonslav59
    Wouldn't you expect these types of variances by randomly generating numbers based on the playoff sample sizes and regular season stats? How does just showing one pitcher did way better than another prove it is because the sample size was mostly clutch. If you looked at pitcher stats for Monday vs Tuesday or the moth of June vs the month of July, you'd see similar variances, but you'd probably not claim Kershaw has a special Monday or June skill that others do not possess, right?
  16. moonslav59
    I'm no expert on Sox prospects, especially at the lower levels, but these numbers look encouraging: OPS Against: .703 Blalock (60 IP) .680 DiValerio (54) .707 Kwiatkowski (51) .579 C Cobb (51) .524 Roedahl (45) .576 Fernandez (36) .440 B Walter (31) OPS .961 Joe Davis (189) .871 Groshans (141) .864 Yorke (271 ABs) .786 Northcut (274) .834 S Scott (212)
  17. moonslav59
    Having Monday, Thursday and Monday off in the next 8 days should help us limit having to over use our best RP'ers, but even if our pen does well, this week, I'll still be concerned, as I am with our starters and defense, too. The offense is the only thing I know can and will bounce back from bad stretches.
  18. moonslav59
    With Shaw, the answer might be a 50-50 guess, at best.
  19. moonslav59
    ..and of course, I'll repeat the refrain, "He can't hit any worse than Cordero, Marwin or _____!"
  20. moonslav59
    Papi did defy the bell curve by having his 4th best OPS year at age 40- hhis last year. He also had his best OPS+ year at age 36, 3rd best at 40, and 5th best at 37. His 7th best was at age 35. His worst 3 OPS+ with the Sox, were ages 32, 33 and 34, which many, including myself felt were signs of continued decline. His best, in order: 36, 31, 40, 30, 37, 29, 35, 28, 27, 38, 39 It's almost a perfect pattern of alternating pots 34 years with pre 31 years. The normal peak years (maybe 28-30) were not his best.
  21. moonslav59
    Our poor defense is one reason I want to see Kike in CF. It's not enough to move the needle that much, but any little bit helps. The question is, which is better? Kike> Duran in CF or Kike> Arroyo at 2B?
  22. moonslav59
    That's what they said before Cruz and JD signed their last deals.
  23. moonslav59
    He certainly might, but what makes you think he'll buck the trend of most players his age? Yes, he works harder and studies the game more than just about anyone, but he's already shown signs of slowing down a bit and having longer "slumps," if you call hitting .725 for a month a slump. OPS+ 144 in 3 years prior to his peak at 171 from 2017-2018 at ages 29-30 (the normal meat of prime) 129 from 2019-2021. (120 from 2020-2021) Even his 2019 season was slightly below his 2014-2016 three year span. I have to think he'll stay around 125-140 for 2021 and more like 120-135 in 2022, with continued decline afterwards to some degree. Who knows, maybe he's the next Dwight Evans or Nelson Cruz.
  24. moonslav59
    If he hits .880 in 2022, he might get a Nelson Cruz type 4 year deal, and he'd be fine with that, IMO.
  25. moonslav59
    I think he actually surprised people at how not horrible he was at 2B.
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