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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    The thing is, a slump for someone like Gwynn was hitting .650 to .700, not .450 to .550. I checked out a few of his best seasons and found this: 1997: the year he hit .372 (.957 OPS) 35 games stretch hitting .287 (.730 OPS) near the end of the year. 1994: his best OPS year (1.022) Was the model for consistency. After being at .898 on April 22, he never fell below .967, and even then, he was only under .982 after just 2 games the rest of the season! He was over .990 after all but 4 games after 4/22. 1986: the year he had his most PAs (701) .848 OPS .741 in first 17 games (not far from .848). .675 in 24 game stretch from 7/17 to 8/12. Not your normal "slumps."
  2. moonslav59
    Well said. I'm far from giving upon Downs, but I was just pointing out how our farm improved, and what did not help it move up, this time. Maybe Next year, Downs helps us move to top 3, again. (That may be hard, as Duran will likely graduate from prospects status.)
  3. moonslav59
    Yanks and Rays up 2-1 in the 5th. If one could lose, tonight, it would be a nice boost for tomorrow.
  4. moonslav59
    I do think our farm got deeper by players already in the system getting better- not just by adding Mayer and other draftees. I have given credit to DD for some of the draft choices he made with low picks that have risen higher and faster than I expected. The thought deadline trades of 2020 would help more than it seemed to help. Pivetta was a great get, but he's not a prospect. Pots, Rosario, Wallace and others have been unimpressive. The Cordero trade added some promise, but nothing that jumps out at me. Downs is seeing his stock decline- maybe Wong's has risen a little. The trading away of Yankee farm depth was probably a big part of us passing them, despite jacko not thinking so. Having 3 guys in the to 40 was likely the biggest factor. We still seem to have a big gap between the tope 3 and the promising helium kids.
  5. moonslav59
    Are we so sure DR will bolster?
  6. moonslav59
    Bobby Dee does have much more to work on. My hope was he could improve his swing selection and take more walks, but I'm not sure if that's the issue. A sub .300 OBP is something a player needs a lot of power and better BA to outweigh it. The only thing I can say is that even though he is very old for a rookie, he only has 420 PAs in the bigs. He needs time to work through some of these things out, and maybe he never does. The issue might be that a winning team, sometimes can't have the patience to give players a long enough chance to show they belong. That pressure can also hurt a player- knowing there's a time limit.
  7. moonslav59
    Yes, I mentioned it after the Yanks traded away a lot of farm depth and the Sox drafted higher.
  8. moonslav59
    "Baseball America just released its updated organizational rankings and the Red Sox have made an impressive leap into the top 10, rising from 20th to ninth, leap-frogging both the Blue Jays and Yankees in the process. The Red Sox boast three of the game's top 100 prospects in first baseman Triston Casas (20th), outfielder Jarren Duran (22nd), and first-round pick Marcelo Mayer (32nd)." Jacko claimed the Yanks still ranked higher than the Sox after the draft and trade deadline deals.
  9. moonslav59
    Thanks for this. Jacko totally disagreed with me, when I said that after this draft we'd be close to even with the Yanks, if not better.
  10. moonslav59
    It has a very limited use: it's only good when comparing catchers from the same team with the same pitchers only. The sample sizes have to be significant, so often there are very few samples to compare. Other than that, the variables are not much different from other stats: strength of opponents vary, park factors, defensive alignments behind the pitchers and more vary, but that's true of BA, ERA, OPS, etc... It's also best to use OPS against- not just CERA. When one catcher continuously gets blown away by just about every pitcher by pitcher comp, it's hard to ignore.
  11. moonslav59
    We've had 6 signing periods since Moncada's year. Two were affected by penalties, but what of the next 4? Okay, one poor kid died (Daniel Flores in '17) and we also picked G Jimenez, that year, but he doesn't look like Moncada or Devers, just yet. Bonaci in '18? Nope. Chacon in '19? I think not. Bleis in '21 is too early to tell. (Sawamura is kinda separate.) We've lost an edge we used to hold. We went from Devers, Bogaerts, Moncada, Montas, Margot, DHern & Iggy in a 6 year period (2009-2014) to Nothing in the 6 periods from 2015-2021- count these as 4 yrs, but it still sucks.
  12. moonslav59
    So, the Sox have played 2 more games than the Rays and 3 more than the Yanks. Those numbers change in the next 8 days: Monday: Sox: no game Yanks v LAA TBR v BAL Tuesday BOS 2 @ NYY NYY 2 v BOS TBR v BAL Wednesday BOS @ NYY NYY v BOS TBR v BAL Thursday BOS: no game NYY v MN TBR v BAL FRI-SAT-SUN BOS v TEX NYY v MIN TBR v CWS MON BOS & TBR: no games NYY @ ATL At this point, the Yanks will be even with us in games played and TBR will gain 1 but still be one behind us.
  13. moonslav59
    So, it's real, but just terrible.
  14. moonslav59
    Well said, and there's one other thing: .362 OBP in minors .297 OBP in majors Can that be improved?
  15. moonslav59
    Has someone ever done a study that proves consistent hitting wins more games than streaky hitting? I would think it all evens out. Someone going 1 for 4 with a BB every game (.250 batter, .400 OBP) would create the same amount of runs as someone who goes 0-5 every other game and 2-3 with 2 BB every other game- or every other week... It's nice to have a streaky hitter when others are struggling. It's not so much help when the whole team is on fire and winning 20-8 and 16-2. This isn't meant to prove anything, but let's look at 2 of JBJ's most streaky seasons: 2015 and 2016. I honestly don't know the results before looking them up, just now... 2015 .384 OPS in his first 21 games (May10-Aug 5.) We went 15-6 in those games. 1.361 OPS in his next 28 games (8/6 to 9/7). Team 16-12. .510 the next 25 games to end the season. Team 13-12. 2016: .679 in first 21 games. Team 11-10. 1.245 in next 29 games. Team 19-10 .799 next 53 games. Team 29-24 ,703 in last 53 games. Team 32-21 I can't make heads or toes about anything, here.
  16. moonslav59
    But, it's .809 since June 5th- an even bigger sample size!
  17. moonslav59
    No, it was because VMart was catching him, but then you'd have to admit CERA is real. Such a conundrum. lol
  18. moonslav59
    So, taking steroids can make you clutch? Very interesting. Is that because your head grows nigger, and studies show bigger heads equals intelligence, right?
  19. moonslav59
    Of course, but did he lose the skill, or just have some bad luck? It's not like 4 starts is a tiny sample size, when his whole career had just 13 GS'd. Which begs the question, Was the great part just good luck? Maybe calling anyone with a sample size that small anything is just plain wrong.
  20. moonslav59
    Is everyone who ever did great in a lot of clutch situations definitely clutch, or could some just have gotten lucky? And, is everyone who ever did very poorly in a lot of clutch situations definitely chokes, or could some just have been unlucky? If you answer yes, some can, how can you tell them apart? We all know baseball is a game of streaks- good and bad. Doesn't it seem likely that some players just had a good or bad streak at the right or wrong time? Few had it happen very often. Most had ups and downs. Kinda like any given point is a season or career. If I just said, let's randomly choose several 2-3 week periods out of every player's career to reach the sample sizes of Schilling and Kershaw, how many sample sizes would be almost exactly like their career norm? How many would be significantly higher or lower? How many would reach the extremes they reached?
  21. moonslav59
    He repeated sucking many times, too.
  22. moonslav59
    Schilling never had 2 series in a row with awful numbers, let alone 3, like Beckett. Beckett's 73+ IP sample size was pretty significant, before the boom came down. How about Mr. October, himself? Reggie Jackson. No denying the guy went on a rampage in the playoffs for quite some time, but then what happened? He went about 218 PAs being "da man," but then went 20 for 91 (.220) over his last 100 PAs. He still had an OPS over .810 in that time frame during the regular season, so did he just lose that "clutch skill?" Maybe, he wasn't really all that clutch and just got hot in a few late season series. Career .846 OPS .804 Late & Close .855 High Leverage .885 post Season
  23. moonslav59
    Yes, both have pitched a lot of playoff innings: close to a full season, each. 189 Kershaw 4.19 ERA/1.074 WHIP His worst ERA was 4.26 in 108 IP, then 3.39 in 2021 and he's had 3 seasons with a worse WHIP than 1.074 and a couple more rather close. 133 Schilling 2.23 ERA/0.968 WHIP His best season ERA was 2.35 and 2.54 and WHIP 0.968 and 0.990 These two certainly look like evidence to support the "clutch" player claim, but it does not prove it. It can't be proved, either side.
  24. moonslav59
    ...and then some! lol!
  25. moonslav59
    Correct answer! We used to be pretty good in this area. Okajima Tazawa Bogaerts, Montas and Iggy in one year! (2009) Margot (2011) Devers & DHer (2013) Moncada & Bazardo (2014) Nothing but Hector Velazquez and Sawamura since then!
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