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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    It has a very limited use: it's only good when comparing catchers from the same team with the same pitchers only. The sample sizes have to be significant, so often there are very few samples to compare. Other than that, the variables are not much different from other stats: strength of opponents vary, park factors, defensive alignments behind the pitchers and more vary, but that's true of BA, ERA, OPS, etc... It's also best to use OPS against- not just CERA. When one catcher continuously gets blown away by just about every pitcher by pitcher comp, it's hard to ignore.
  2. moonslav59
    We've had 6 signing periods since Moncada's year. Two were affected by penalties, but what of the next 4? Okay, one poor kid died (Daniel Flores in '17) and we also picked G Jimenez, that year, but he doesn't look like Moncada or Devers, just yet. Bonaci in '18? Nope. Chacon in '19? I think not. Bleis in '21 is too early to tell. (Sawamura is kinda separate.) We've lost an edge we used to hold. We went from Devers, Bogaerts, Moncada, Montas, Margot, DHern & Iggy in a 6 year period (2009-2014) to Nothing in the 6 periods from 2015-2021- count these as 4 yrs, but it still sucks.
  3. moonslav59
    So, the Sox have played 2 more games than the Rays and 3 more than the Yanks. Those numbers change in the next 8 days: Monday: Sox: no game Yanks v LAA TBR v BAL Tuesday BOS 2 @ NYY NYY 2 v BOS TBR v BAL Wednesday BOS @ NYY NYY v BOS TBR v BAL Thursday BOS: no game NYY v MN TBR v BAL FRI-SAT-SUN BOS v TEX NYY v MIN TBR v CWS MON BOS & TBR: no games NYY @ ATL At this point, the Yanks will be even with us in games played and TBR will gain 1 but still be one behind us.
  4. moonslav59
    So, it's real, but just terrible.
  5. moonslav59
    Well said, and there's one other thing: .362 OBP in minors .297 OBP in majors Can that be improved?
  6. moonslav59
    Has someone ever done a study that proves consistent hitting wins more games than streaky hitting? I would think it all evens out. Someone going 1 for 4 with a BB every game (.250 batter, .400 OBP) would create the same amount of runs as someone who goes 0-5 every other game and 2-3 with 2 BB every other game- or every other week... It's nice to have a streaky hitter when others are struggling. It's not so much help when the whole team is on fire and winning 20-8 and 16-2. This isn't meant to prove anything, but let's look at 2 of JBJ's most streaky seasons: 2015 and 2016. I honestly don't know the results before looking them up, just now... 2015 .384 OPS in his first 21 games (May10-Aug 5.) We went 15-6 in those games. 1.361 OPS in his next 28 games (8/6 to 9/7). Team 16-12. .510 the next 25 games to end the season. Team 13-12. 2016: .679 in first 21 games. Team 11-10. 1.245 in next 29 games. Team 19-10 .799 next 53 games. Team 29-24 ,703 in last 53 games. Team 32-21 I can't make heads or toes about anything, here.
  7. moonslav59
    But, it's .809 since June 5th- an even bigger sample size!
  8. moonslav59
    No, it was because VMart was catching him, but then you'd have to admit CERA is real. Such a conundrum. lol
  9. moonslav59
    So, taking steroids can make you clutch? Very interesting. Is that because your head grows nigger, and studies show bigger heads equals intelligence, right?
  10. moonslav59
    Of course, but did he lose the skill, or just have some bad luck? It's not like 4 starts is a tiny sample size, when his whole career had just 13 GS'd. Which begs the question, Was the great part just good luck? Maybe calling anyone with a sample size that small anything is just plain wrong.
  11. moonslav59
    Is everyone who ever did great in a lot of clutch situations definitely clutch, or could some just have gotten lucky? And, is everyone who ever did very poorly in a lot of clutch situations definitely chokes, or could some just have been unlucky? If you answer yes, some can, how can you tell them apart? We all know baseball is a game of streaks- good and bad. Doesn't it seem likely that some players just had a good or bad streak at the right or wrong time? Few had it happen very often. Most had ups and downs. Kinda like any given point is a season or career. If I just said, let's randomly choose several 2-3 week periods out of every player's career to reach the sample sizes of Schilling and Kershaw, how many sample sizes would be almost exactly like their career norm? How many would be significantly higher or lower? How many would reach the extremes they reached?
  12. moonslav59
    He repeated sucking many times, too.
  13. moonslav59
    Schilling never had 2 series in a row with awful numbers, let alone 3, like Beckett. Beckett's 73+ IP sample size was pretty significant, before the boom came down. How about Mr. October, himself? Reggie Jackson. No denying the guy went on a rampage in the playoffs for quite some time, but then what happened? He went about 218 PAs being "da man," but then went 20 for 91 (.220) over his last 100 PAs. He still had an OPS over .810 in that time frame during the regular season, so did he just lose that "clutch skill?" Maybe, he wasn't really all that clutch and just got hot in a few late season series. Career .846 OPS .804 Late & Close .855 High Leverage .885 post Season
  14. moonslav59
    Yes, both have pitched a lot of playoff innings: close to a full season, each. 189 Kershaw 4.19 ERA/1.074 WHIP His worst ERA was 4.26 in 108 IP, then 3.39 in 2021 and he's had 3 seasons with a worse WHIP than 1.074 and a couple more rather close. 133 Schilling 2.23 ERA/0.968 WHIP His best season ERA was 2.35 and 2.54 and WHIP 0.968 and 0.990 These two certainly look like evidence to support the "clutch" player claim, but it does not prove it. It can't be proved, either side.
  15. moonslav59
    ...and then some! lol!
  16. moonslav59
    Correct answer! We used to be pretty good in this area. Okajima Tazawa Bogaerts, Montas and Iggy in one year! (2009) Margot (2011) Devers & DHer (2013) Moncada & Bazardo (2014) Nothing but Hector Velazquez and Sawamura since then!
  17. moonslav59
    Correct. My bad. The worst I can find, without going back too far is you've won 4 of the last 7.
  18. moonslav59
    Fun with numbers... Dalbec is at ... .957 since July 21st (last game at TOR) .832 since July 9th (first game vs PHI) .827 since June 28th (first game vs KCR) .812 since June 15th- 2 months! .809 since June 5th. You have to go back to June 3rd to get a sample size below .800 with Dalbec.
  19. moonslav59
    Who was the last good or great IFA we signed?
  20. moonslav59
    If it's a skill, what happened to Josh Beckett in 2008-2009? His regular season ERA those 2 years was 3.93. His career was 3.88. Before 2008, he was on pace to become one of the most "clutch" pitchers in the history of MLB. The rest of his post season saw him have a 7.71 ERA (18 ERs in 21 IP) How about Mr. Choke Barry Bonds?
  21. moonslav59
    So you'd expect about 1 time of 74 heads per 1 million sample sizes. ~2 per million at 73. ~1 per 100K at 72 (or 6 per million). 2 per 100K at 71 (16 per million). 4 per 100K at 70. Maybe had I said 70, my point would have been more realistic.
  22. moonslav59
    How about 73 Heads? LOL
  23. moonslav59
    Impressive stat get! Not that impressive a stat.
  24. moonslav59
    You don't think, if you flip a coin in 100 times sample sizes- a million times, one or two might come up 75 heads?
  25. moonslav59
    They should change their name from the O's to the M's, but keep the cool logo. "The Morioles"
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