moonslav59

Agreed. If he was beginning the season as the AAA or AA closer, yes,

My bad. I meant to say "might" have a better shot. I'm not sure any not 40 guy has a clear better shot. It's kind of telling that soxprospects.com has him beginning and starting in AA. They seem to put a few guys ahead of him. His non 40 competition: AAA: Sikkema, Gamboa, Harris, Berrios, Song, Sweet, Martines, T Guerrero, Nittoli, K Keller, I Coffey & Olds. AA: Holobetz, Wehunt, Rivera, Wu-Yelland, Webb, Rogers/Dean

Hitting is not easy. Sometimes the pitch that ends up being a close called third strike doesn't look like it is going to be, until it's too late to decide to swing. I'm totally fine with the Casas approach. He has a nice OBP and ISO/SLG. When healthy, he might be our best overall hitter.

We'd be a very unbalanced team with 4 DHs and no 3Bman. I assume we still trade for Durbin and Gray. (No Contreras trade.)

It was the old format of a play-in game, and 10 teams making the playoffs (4 in AL & 4 in NL) Now, it's 12 teams (6+6) That makes a big difference. It would take very little parity for a 90 win team to not make the playoffs. We may not even see an 89 team miss out. Only one 88 win team was the worst record to MAKE the playoffs. If the Sox win 88-90 and miss the playoffs, it would be a first.

I see this... 87-75 NYY (SEA w 87 wins, too) 86-76 BOS & TOR 85-77 BAL (DET w 85 wins, too) https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

So, the GM is a "flop" not the team. You tend to throw terms around very loosely, then end up back-tracking, goal post-moving or changing the argument's focus. You blame JH, sometimes, when we spent enough AAV, this winter to sign Alonso and Bregman. You blame Brez for adding Contreras & Gray over Alonso- and Suarez, Durbin & Kiner-Falefa over Bregman. Soon, it will all be Cora's fault. Rince & repeat.

Yes, 2021 was the last season of the one game play-in. My numbers are from 2022-2025. 4 seasons x 2 leagues= 8 teams with the lowest records to make the playoffs. I listed out all the teams, including SEA that missed the playoffs with 90 wins, earlier.

Lots of goalpost moving, lately. Of the 8 teams to be the last WC team, these are their win totals: 89 88 87 86 85 83 83 83 It appears 83-85 gives about a 50-50 chance. 86 wins a 63% 87 wins 75% 88 wins 88% 89 wins 100% If we win 87-88, we should be in.

Durbin is not blocking Mayer, but he could be insurance. Mayer will get as long a look as KC got. Kiner-Falefa is an expensive utility guy, but with injury concerns for Story, Mayer & Romy, it's a great idea. Even if Romy is 100%, I K-F should play enough.

Fangraphs project FIPs: 2.82 Crochet 2.87 Chapman 3.18 Whitlock 3.50 Gray 3.61 Suarez 3.65 Moran (Surprised?) TEAM 3.76 3.77 Early 3.91 Sandoval 3.93 Slaten 3.95 Tolle 4.14 Bello 4.15 Weissert 4.22 Watson 4.24 Oviedo & Crawford NYY: 3.26 Bednar, 3.39 Cruz, 3.43 Fried, 3.52 Doval, 3.92 Bird, 3.99 Rodon, 4.00 Cole (TEAM 4.03) TOR: 3.54 Cease, 3.59 Varland, 3.60 Hoffma, 3.73 Bieber (IL) 3.81 Yesavage & Nance, 3.83 Garcia, 3.84 Gausman, 3.85 Little (TEAM 3.95) BAL (TEAM 4.13) 3.14 Bautista, 3.38 Helsley, 3.55 Bradish, 3.76 Kittredge, 3.77 Cano, 3.97 Enns...4.08 Rogers

Fangraph's projected OBPs: .367 Anthony .344 Contreras (Will ne bat 2nd, 3rd or 4th?) .340 Casas (could be our savior) .338 Yoshida (may be on the bench) .335 Campbell (may be in AAA) .334 Durbin .332 Abreu .327 to .329 Sogard, Gasper & Thaiss .326 Duran TEAM: .324 .319 Monasterio & Seigler .312 Romy & Narvaez .303-.305 Rafaela & Wong .302 Mayer .299 Story .296 Kiner-Falefa SLG .446 Abreu .445 Contreras .441 Anthony & Duran .433 Casas & Romy .428 Rafaela .422 Yoshida (Higher than Story???) TEAM .418 .416 Story .401 Mayer .395 Durbin .380 KC & Wong .375 Narvaez .336 I K-F

That is very likely- at least hit better than expected- or score runs more than expected. I guess it's possible our pitching and defense do even better than the lofty expectations, but hitting seems like the easiest way to insure we make the playoffs. Agreed. I do agree that we need one more big bat. That is our biggest hole in the roster, but many teams have a big hole or two or more.

Pre-wildcard, yes- often. I don't think it ever has happened, except when it was just one wildcard team and the play-in games. In 1995, the first full season of 1 wild card team, the Yanks were the WC team with 79 wins. A 78 win team missed out. In the NL, a 76 win team missed. 1996: AL- two 85 win teams missed/ NL an 88 win team. 1997: AL- 84 win team/ NL- 88 win 1998: AL-85/ NL 89 (close) 1999: AL-87/NL 96 (Cincy) YES 2000: AL- 90 (CLE)/ NL 86 YES 2001: AL- 85/NL 90 (SFG) YES 2002: AL- 93 (TOR)/NL 92 (LAD) YES & YES 2003: AL- 93 (SEA)/ NL 87 YES 2004: AL 91 (OAK)/ NL 91 (SFG) YES & YES 2005: AL 93 (CLE)/ NL 88 YES 2006: AL- 90 (CWS)/NL 85 YES (8 straight years but never 2 teams from same league) 2007: AL 88/ NL 88 2008: AL 88/NL 89 2009: AL 87/ NL 87 2010: AL 88/NL 90 (SDP) YES 2011: AL- 90 (BOS)/ NL 89 YES 2012 was the start of the play-in game, so before that there never was 2 teams with 90 or more wins from the same league miss out on the playoffs. 2012: AL 90 (TBR)/NL 86 YES 2013: AL 91 (TEX)/ NL 86 2014: AL 87/NL 82 (Wow) 2015: AL 85/ NL 84 2016: AL 86/NL 86 2017: AL 80 (WOW!) NL 86 2018: AL 90 (TBR)/ NL 88 YES 2019: AL: 93 (CLE)/ NL86 YES 2021: AL 91(TOR) & 90 (SEA)/ NL 82 YES (two teams from the AL) 9 seasons of the playin game: once 2 teams from the same league missed with 90+ wins. Never 3 teams. 2022 was the start of the 4 wild card teams. 2022: AL 83/ NL 86 2023: AL 82/NL 82 2024: AL 82/ NL 83 2025: AL 82/NL83 In the 4 years of the current format, the last team that made the playoffs had these win totals: 2025: AL: 87/NL 83 2024: AL 85/NL 89 2023: AL 88/ NL 83 2022: AL 83/ NL 86 Even at 88 wins, it seems unlikely we'd miss the playoffs, according to the 4 year record. No 88 win team ever missed out in these 4 years.

You mean like saying we need an .820 bat, then moving the goal posts to .780?

So much for MLB parity. Who are these 3 non division winning teams with 91+ wins? I assume 2 come from the ALE (TOR/NYY/BAL). Who else? HOU/SEA from the West? DET/CLE from the Central? Texas?

Abreu already averages about 28 HRs per 650. It's all about getting to 650 without sucking vs lefties for him. Story hit 25 in 2025. That's not a big stretch. (650+ PAs, again might be.) Contreras should hit 25 with help from Fenway. Anthony is hard to project. He has added 15 lbs of muscle. Duran & Narvaez hitting 20 might be the hardest ones. Maybe Durbin & Casas hit 20, and Narvaez and Duran 15.

Their pitching staff was projected to do much better than they did. In that sense, yes. They had an easy schedule. They finished 5th in run differential and 3rd in winning %. That looks like, in terms of wins, they overperformed.

So, that might look like... 30 Abreu 25 Story, Contreras, Anthony 20 Duran, Narvaez 15 Durbin, Casas?

I forgot about Cheng, but yes. I agree on I K-F. In a way, he gives us the ability to have just one utility infielders on the 26. Wong and the 4th OF'er are pretty much set. That leaves Masa and IK-F as the 3rd and 4th slots. Masa really messes up the choices for Cora.

I'm thinking they are guessing. Has Sandoval thrown a ball in front of anybody in Florida? How about Crawford?

With the loss of Drohan from the prospects list, soxprospects moved Allan Castro to #20. I cringe. On a recent podcast they mentioned he might be the best everyday player at Pawtucket. (They must think KC begins the year in BOS.) Speaking of sp.com's rankings, here is the winter changeover in the top 30: Gone: 4. Perales (traded for Jake Bennett) 6. Jh Garcia (traded w Travieso for Oviedo, Samaniego & Guzman) 8. Clarke (traded w Fitts for S Gray and $$$) 10. Fajardo (traded w Dobbins & Aita for Contreras & $$$) 12. Sandlin (traded w Hicks for Ziehl) 18. Drohan (traded with Harrison & DHam for Durbin & others) 20. Travieso (traded w Jh Garcia for Oviedo, Samaniego & Guzman) 21. Paez (The end of the even number curse- a Rule 5 loss) Added: 6. Bennett 19. Watson (Justin Riemer trade) 27. Samaniego 29. Ziehl 30. Guzman (31 Heyman, 33 Silverio, 49 Jackson) Brez traded 8 of our top 21 prospects plus some young talent like Dobbins, Fitts & Aita. He added 2 in the top 19 and 8 in the top 49.) Unlike Bloom, Brez is not hesitant to trade prospects or MLB talent. He seems to be making more moves than DD, but many are minor to slightly moderate in nature. The Crochet deal rivals the Sale trade, and he has acquired some decent talent, like Gray, Contreras, Narvaez, O'Neill, Slaten & Fitts/Weissert.

Being consistently "just short" is an argument for a winning in cycles philosophy. Sorry, but the Sox had a way harder schedule than the Ms and way outscored our opponents compared to the M's. I would not say the M's were unlucky in 2025.

That '77 team did finish 3rd in OBP- just .001 from 2nd and .003 from first. Maybe it was the 18th place in ERA, that year. (However, just 8th in ERA-)

Are we even certain Monasterio beats out Sogard, assuming Romy begins the season on the IL? Speaking of the IL, soxprospects.com no longer has Crawford or Sandoval beginning the season on the IL. They don't have Romy projected their either. Only Casas is listed on the IL. They have Sandoval in the pen with 6 SP'ers named (Oviedo #5 & Crawford #6.)