He's not 38.
Of course, a few teams will offer him a 2 or 3 year deal, minimum, but certainly not at $19M a year. Maybe someone offers him something like $40-50M/3 or $50-55M/4. The question is, and I thinnk I know the answer, is will he take that over $19M/1 plus whatever he thinks he can get next year. If you subtract $19M from my suggested offers and add a year of age to him, what can he get the following winter? My numbers would be $20-30M/2 or $30-35M/3.
JD just turned 34, so he will be 35 for most of the 2023 season. I think Nelson Cruz is a pretty good comp, but JD will have to hit well in 2022 to stay a good comp. That is where his risk lays- that and how he hits this September.
Even if you add JD's horrific 2020 numbers to his 2021 numbers, he's still over .800.
.806 in 781 PAs
31 HRs
112 RBIs
85 XBHs
Nelson Cruz hit .848 at ages 32 to 33, but he exploded to .936 at age 35, his first year with SEA.
He's been at .933 for the 6 years after that, not counting 2021. I am not saying I or anyone should expect that from JD, but Cruz got a pretty good deal from SEA ($57M/4) at about the same age JD is, now and after similar numbers.