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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Interesting.
  2. moonslav59
    Losing Papi will be tough to get over. However, we may not need to completely fill the void to remain a top 3 offensive team. 2016 AL Run Scored Leaders 878 BOS 777 CLE (May lose Napoli) 768 SEA 765 TEX 759 TOR (Will likely lose EE, Sanders and Bautista) 750 DET (Is looking to cut salary- Miggy? Vmart? JD Martinez?) We were up 111 on second place. We were up 120 on third place. How many runs does the 2016 Papi create as a differential to maybe a platoon of Pablo (.744 vs RHPs in 2015) and Young (.999 OPS vs LHPs in 2016)? It might not even be 11 or 120 right there. Now, a full year by Beni, Young and Leon could certainly keep us number one in the AL or at least number 3. I'm more worried about who might carry us offensively in the playoffs.
  3. moonslav59
    I tend to agree, but with tight money, 3B is not going to be a place we spend to upgrade anyways.
  4. moonslav59
    Let's assume for a moment that the Sox will try to reset the luxury tax this winter by staying under the limit. They may not this winter, but let's just go with this scenario for a bit. That leaves us with about $10M to try and upgrade our pen, DH and possibly 3B. Let's say we can get Ziegler and Uehara for $10M combined for argument's sake. So, we keep Buch and add 2 RP'ers and are locked in with what we have all year. Any addition in salary mid season will need and offset in salary traded away. I think we'd be looking pretty good, but would this be better? We trade Buch for a RP'er similar to Ziegler in ability but at a low cost (min salary). With the $13.5M, we now have $23.5M to spend. Let's say we can get Beltran for $37M/2 ($18.5M a year). With the left over $5M, we sign Uehara. So, in theory, we could have Beltran, Uehara and someone close to Ziegler's skill or Buch, Ziegler and Uehara. Which gives us a better chance to win? I realize the loss of Buch makes Owens/Johnson/Elias our 6th starter, but Beltran should play nearly every day.
  5. moonslav59
    We may get fooled again, if Shaw hits well for the first two months again, then falls off a cliff again.
  6. moonslav59
    I haven't watched a full ASG since I was a kid in the 70's. I've barely watch an inning or two most years since.
  7. moonslav59
    He'd be a great signing. Probably not too costly either. I wouldn't mind bringing Uehara back too.
  8. moonslav59
    His arb number shouldn't be much more than the min salary, and he's got two options left, so unless we start acquiring more players, I think we have room to give him a look-see.
  9. moonslav59
    What about next year's pitching? We lose: 1.52 Ziegler 30 IP 3.45 Uehara 47 IP 3.77 Layne 29 IP 4.17 Tazawa 50 IP 6.75 O'Sullivan 21 IP (4 GS) That's about 180 IP total. If you add Light, Cuevas, LaMarre and Noe ramirez, we may be replacing about 200 IP. I look for more IP from Pomeranz, ERod, Wright & Kelly. Pitcher ERA/IP projected ERA/IP 2016 230 Price 3.25 3.99/230 225 Porcello 3.35 3.15/223 175 Rodriguez 3.90 4.71/107 175 Wright 3.90 3.33/157 175 Pomeranz 4.00 3.32/171 150 Buchholz 3.90 4.78/139 55 Kimbrel 2.85 3.40/53 65 R Ross 3.25 3.25/55 65 Barnes 3.75 4.05/67 50 Kelly 3.85 5.18/40 40 Abad 3.90 3.66/47 40 Hembree 3.90 2.65/51 30 C Smith 3.00 2.2 IP 30 Scott 3.90 0.00/6
  10. moonslav59
    What are your views on these projected PA & OPS numbers for 2017 as compared to 2016? Player 2017 OPS/PA 2016 OPS/PA Betts .925/720 .897/730 HRam .850/620 .866/620 Pedey .800/685 .825/698 J.B.Jr. .825/650 .835/.636 Bogey .850/700 .802/719 A Beni .785/550 .835/118 Young .825/450 .850/227 Pablo .725/400 7 PAs Shaw .675/250 .726/530 S Leon .725/400 .845/283 C Vaz .650/200 .585/184 B Holt .700/300 .705/324 Moncada .775.200 20 PAs Hrndz .725/200 .730/56 Swihart .725/100 .720/74 Gone: A Hill .577/137 Hanigan .468/113 Brentz .690/64 Rutledge .733/56 Holaday .500/35
  11. moonslav59
    Bogey should be fine. Shaw is a long shot in my mind.
  12. moonslav59
    Good to see an old comrade from BDC join the new gang. Welcome.
  13. moonslav59
    I think you are right, but if they go one vs two, it should be a solid guy- not a big question mark one. That could get costly, however.
  14. moonslav59
    We had a horrible pen for much of 2016. How well we did near the end should not hide the fact that our pen was not good. On top of that, we are losing 2-3 of our best pen guys from a bad year... Ziegler Uehara Tazawa Carson may not return until July, and even then, he may need an adjustment period. We used 10 starters last year including 47 from our 6th starter and below, so I think counting on one of our 6 top starters as significant pen help could be wishful thinking. Here's how our pen looks to me: Kimbrel ______ ______ R Ross J Kelly M Barnes F Abad Others: Buch or Wright, if we are lucky, C Smith, Hembree, Scott, Martin, Owens, Johnson, N Ramirez, Workman
  15. moonslav59
    MLBTR suggests Workman may be a non-tender candidate.
  16. moonslav59
    I think you undervalue Buch based on his projected WAR. He finished the season strong and will be in his final contract year looking to free agency the following year. He's a big gamble, but the upside is much higher than what some other injury-prone or mediocre starters have gotten in recent years. Cashner just got $10M and has never come close to the 3-4 great to phenomenal stretches Buch has had over his career. 90 year old bartolo Colon just got $12.5M. Brett Anderson got $15M+ last year. What would you suggest the offer be for Pomeranz?
  17. moonslav59
    The Yankees have spoken to other teams about third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Brett Gardner but received minimal interest in that pair. Headley has $26MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal and quietly rebounded from a disastrous start to post a solid overall season in the Bronx last year, while Gardner is owed a similar $25MM through 2018 and also has a club option for the 2019 season on his deal. If we traded JBJ and others for Sale, could we afford to take on Headley and Gardner's contracts? Would it even be worth it? I'd say no, even if they cost lower prospects.
  18. moonslav59
    The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column.
  19. moonslav59
    No surprise. He was out of options... The Red Sox announced that they won’t tender a contract to veteran catcher Bryan Holaday. The 29-year-old batted .231/.281/.359 with a pair of homers and seven doubles in 129 PAs between Texas and Boston this past season. The right-handed-hitting Holaday will bring a career .628 OPS and 28 percent caught-stealing rate to the free agent market as he looks to latch on elsewhere, presumably in a backup capacity. He’d been projected to earn $900K in arbitration this winter and comes with three years of team control to any club that signs him. Boston tendered contracts to all of its remaining arb-eligible players, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Boston’s 40-man roster is at 39 players. MLBTRs says Brandon Workman is like to be non-tendered as well.
  20. moonslav59
    I was responding to the point about home field before the WS- the earlier rounds.
  21. moonslav59
    True, but the inter-league factor is not as strong within each league's playoff set-up. I do think best record is probably the fairest way to do it, but the Sox played a division schedule that included the best record 2nd place team, the best record 3rd place team, the best record 4th place team and a last place team that was one win away from the best last place team. Our 4th place team (NYY) had a better record than any divisions third place team! Our 3rd place team(TOR/BAL) had a better record than any divisions 2nd place team! I'm not saying we deserved home field over the Cubs, but it sucks that we'll likely never get home field in the next few years. The all star set up gave us that chance.
  22. moonslav59
    At the time of the trade, Elias was coming off two seasons with 49 starts for the Mariners. While his WAR was just 2.0 combined, he looked like he could be a decent long relief/spot starter type at the time. His ERA- was 106 from 2014-2015, but Miley's was 109 in the same time period. I'd trade Buch for Smith and Elias types this winter and hope they do better. After all, Buch is just a hope and a prayer too. The idea is to save money which would allow us to sign a guy like Beltran. We fill both of our biggest needs (DH and RP) without going over the limit.
  23. moonslav59
    He'd be costly both in terms of prospects and salary. The only way he plays CF for us, is if we trade JBJ (and others for Sale/Quintana?).
  24. moonslav59
    Agreed. With the limited luxury tax limit space, I think we need to focus on the bullpen and maybe a LH'd hitting DH-type. Dumping some salary might help us fill all needs, but if we trade Buch, we open a new need- 6th starter.
  25. moonslav59
    I get it, but aren't there better comps of players who look great in the minors, start out well, then struggle the next year? Like Bogey.
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