moonslav59

They weren't meant to reassure us, but it does show that getting a lead on Houston early does ot even give you a better than 50% chance of winning, so how important is that cliche? While winning 1 out of every 3 games you fall behind early or 1 out fo 4 by mid game does not sound all that good or "reassuring," it still is a significant amount of times to come back. MLB.com has us at 47 of our 92 wins were come from behind. I would never count us out, if the game is close.

If you think getting RP'er through free agency is a good idea, here is the record or recent season signings: (I'm not leaving anyone out. This is the complete list of the RP'er getting more than $5M. 2020-2021 $54M/3 Hendriks 71 IP, 0.732 WHIP, 2.54 ERA, $17.5M/2 Treinen 72 IP, 0.982, 1.99 $15.5M/2 T May 63, 1.261. 3.59 $12.5M/2 P Baez 4 IP $11M/1 Rosenthal 0 IP $10.5M/1 B Hand 43. 1.148, 3.59 (was DFA'd) $7M/2 K Giles 0 IP $6.3M/1 A Colome 65 IP, 1.400, 4.15 $6.0M/1 A Bradley 51, 1.431, 3.71 $5.5M/1 K Yates 0 IP $5.0M/1 A Bass 61, 1.288, 3.82 $5.0M/1 J McGee 60, 0.905, 2.72 $5.2M/2 J Wilson 34, 1.412, 5.29 19-20 $40M/3 W Smith (14 IP then 68, 1.095, 3.64) $34M/4 Pomeranz (19 IP then 26, 1.083, 1.62) $24M/3 W Harris (18 & 6 IP. 1.609, 4.56)) $14M/2 C Martin $11M/2 D Hudson $10.5/1 Betances $10M/1 Treinen $9M/2 Stammen $9M/1 Glausman $8M/2 Smith $7.5M/2 Diekman $6.4M/2 Yamaguchi $6M/1 Cishek $5.0M/1 Romo $5.5M/2 J Rodriguez $5.0M/2 P Johnson 18-19 $43M/3 Kimbrel 96IP in 3 yrs, 1.139, 3.67 $39M/3 Britton 99 IP in 3, 1.216, 2.65 $30M/3 Familia 146 IP, 1.555, 4.62 $27M/3 Ottavino $25M/2 A Miller $25M/3 J Kelly $23M/3 D Robertson $18M/2 Herrera $15M/2 Soria $10M/2 J Wilson $9M/1 Cahil $8.5/1 Cody Allen $8M/2 J Chavez $7M/1 D Holland

I know I often sound like a broken record, so I shouldn't cast stones, but I found this interesting stat. The Astros have won 56% of their games when down after the first inning. (We've won 35% or over a third.) When behind... After 2, they've won 38% to our 31%. After 3, 23 to 21%, but then if flips... After 4 innings, we win 26.2% to their 25.5%. After 5 innings, we win 28% to their 23%.

Assuming he has $40M to spend on 5 slots, fill in some names: $19M SP_______ (ERod?) $7M RP _______ (Ottavino?) $6M RP________ (????) $5M RP________ (????) $3M Utility______ (Iggy?)

Exactly, and over 162 games, the Astros won 3 more games than us. In the playoffs, we've both won 6 games. Every AL team has had serious flaws and ups and downs. I've documented all the ups and downs from the Sox, so here's a quick look at some Houston trends... They had 4 months of playing only 2-3 games above .500 and really made the playoffs based on their June>July record (35-17). In April, they won 4 in a row and 6 of 7, then lost 6 in a row and 9 of 10, before flipping again to winning 6 of 7. In May, they lost 3 in a row and 5 of 8 before winning 6 in a row. Later, they lost 4 straight and 6 of 7. Even in their good month of June, where they won 11 straight, they quickly lost 5 of their next 6. They started July off by winning 6 straight, then lost 3 straight and 5 of 7. Later, they won 6 of 7. How did their last 2 months go? They lost 5 of their first 6, won 5 of 6, lost 4 straight, won 3 straight, lost 2, then won 4 straight. they won-lost almost daily it into September before winning 4 of 5 and 8 of 10. Then, they lost 4 straight and 6 of the next 8 games before winning their last 2. They have yo-yo'd like all AL teams.

I've said utility IF is a low priority and Iggy would be great. If we do go big at 2B, I'd get someone who might replace Bogey, if he opt out (Baez or Semien,) but pitching is by far, my top priority.

The sample size is so small for Brasier. I don't think it's all that telling. Sure, I lost some confidence, but he had been lights out for a long time beforehand. We won't "save" Houck for tomorrow, if tomorrow might not ever come. To me, we'll use whoever we think id the best guy to get out who is coming up next. That very well might be Pivetta first, Whitlock second, and maybe Houck is not even needed, but if Cora likes the Houck match-up best, he might be the first one in. I trust Cora to use who is best. I hope we don't have to use all 3. It would be great to only need to use 1 (or none.)

I think a reversal is likely, not just possible. BTW, we won 92 games, this year. 47 were come from behind wins. That's a little more than half. Sure, our odds improve, if we score first or get a big lead, but it is not essential. This team is a "never say die" team. It's an elimination game. I'm sticking with my belief that this team will do what they have done all year: silence their critics. I know, now I sound like I'm locked in on trends continuing.

Our pen is our weakest area. One could argue defense, but the pen has been a problem more, of late. I will add that the pen carried the team for long stretches of the season, especially when Barnes was doing his Koji impressions. That being said, I still think Cora has enough faith and trust in Brasier and Robles to get a key out or two. That 3 batter rule kinda messes that up, though. How long Eovaldi goes might make all the difference, tonight. We do have 3 guys that can go 2-5 innings, and all 3 happen to be our most trusted pitchers, right now- going by the recency factor: Pivetta Houck Whitlock We can use ERod in relief, if needed, too, and looking to game 7's starter should not come into play. So, tonight, we might see: Long: Pivetta Houck Whitlock Short: ERod Taylor Ottavino Borderline: Brasier Robles (Sale?) Nope: Sawamura DHern Perez

I've been wrong about a lot of things, and being as opinionated as I am, I've put a lot out there. One thing I got right from even before day one was putting Kike in CF. The guy has been better than any Sox player I've ever seen in CF. Here's a great article that shows why... Kiké Hernández embraces opportunity with Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM BOSTON -- Kiké Hernández didn’t even want to play center field when the 2021 season began. Crazy, right? Given how boisterous he’s been while playing defense in the American League Championship Series, especially when making some incredibly flashy plays, it’s hard to believe that Hernández had pause at the idea

That's been my mantra all year, but it seems like some people are just locked into the idea that once a trend is happening, it is locked in. I love the "We have no chance of winning." I know they mean "...if we keep playing like this," but the fact is, the whole AL has never kept "playing like this." Every team has flipped and flopped so many times, my head is spinning. Yes, certain aspects of our team have been doing poorly while theirs is doing well. That mean very little for next game. We saw our offense look like an explosive unit, then go quiet in an instant. The reverse can happen, too. I'm hoping and actually expecting a reversal, tonight.

I'd also like to note that the pen did a great job in game, until the 9th, and many runs were against our mop up pen guys, who should not be used in high leverage situations. The top 3-5 pen guys have not done too badly. In these last 2 games, that should be all that are used.

Thunder!

Taylor would be nice at 2B with Arroyo at utility, in hopes he won't get hurt sitting on the bench. It would also be a good thing that he can play other positions in a pinch, but yes, he'd be signed to play 2B. I do have utility IF'er as a priority, but depending on how much Taylor will cost, I'm not sure we should spend a lot here.

I think this may be a hope to get another Kike. I like Chris Taylor, but not obsessively.

Exactly, but along the way, let's clean up those borderline pitches and make the calls uniform, so the batter and pitchers know, with 100% accuracy, what will be called a stike, and what will be called a ball. Take the guess work out of that part of the game. Take away team strategizing based on who the ump is that night. Honestly, I could care less about all the drunken fans missing out on some extra ump- abuse opportunities. (Plus, they'll be so drunk, they'll still scream at the ump.) Nothing needs to look any differently. The home plate ump can still call "Ball" or "Strike" to keep the traditionalists happy. How anyone can be against getting every call right is beyond my comprehension. Nothing looks any different when watching the game, unless the earpiece in the umps ear bothers you.

It seems like our season's biggest trait has been that when our backs are to the wall, we respond in a good way. The same might be said about Houston, so nothing is guaranteed, but I really like our chances. I'm fairly optimistic.

The 40 Man Roster for 2022 (Before any trades or additions and assuming all free agents to be become FAs) Obvious (26): Bogey Barnes Sale Devers Brasier Eovaldi Taylor DHern Dalbec Verdugo Valdez Pivetta Arroyo Houck Bazardo Mata Groome Wong Seabold Whitlock Renfroe Kike Sawamura Ro. Hernandez Duran Davis Options: Vaz YES (#27) Richards NO Perez NO Player Options/Opt Outs: JD Martinez 50-50 (28?) Schwarber OPTs OUT QO: ERod (Offer- YES, Accepts- 50-50) (#28 or #29?) Rule 5: (6 players likely) Bello Crawford Downs Feltman Santos Winckowski That's 33-35 Players Total (JD & ERod unknown). We can add 5-7 players from outside the organization or keep some of these bubble players: Bubble: Arauz Plawecki (arb) Rosario Potts F German (Rule 5) G Jimenez (Rule 5) K Ort (Rule 5) T Ward (Rule 5) No More Team Control: Ottavino Santana Robles Shaw Iggy (already DFA'd)

Yes, both could be starters, and that will likely be one of this winter and next seasons biggest debate. IMO, getting good RP'er on the market is too hit and miss. I know starters do not have a much better track record, but I just hate spending big on RP'ers. Our 40 man roster is too deep now to go the quantity route in hopes 2 or 3 out of the 7 you sign come through. We don't have that "luxury" anymore. IMO, we will have 4, maybe 5, slots to fill by trade or FA signings. We can't use those slots on 5 low cost RP'ers. We need a utility infielder and another starter, even if we put Houck and Whitlock into the rotation. That's 2 of the 4-5 slots, right there. Bloom will have to do better than a few Andrieses at $3M.

I could see us doing something like this: 1. Sign ERod 2. Extend Devers 3. Sign Baez. 4. Trade Duran & Downs for Montas. 5. Look into trading Bogey for a young arm. 6. Keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

Jacks certainly is biased, but so am I. I enjoy most of his insights, but he does go off the tracks, sometimes. He’s better than 99.9% of Yankee fans I know.

We may trade for a good one.

Even if none work out, the money saved got us Renfroe and Sawamura.

Is he your brother?

Beni would not have been an improvement over Verdugo or Renfroe. He’s a FA after next season. The money saved got us Renfroe. We still have 4 decent prospects in that deal.