moonslav59

I don't like the way things have been going either. I just don't think it has much to do with tonight or the next 5 days.

If you read last night's game thread, you'll be shocked at how many posters seem to want us to just lose and get it over with, or they think we are doomed or destined to lose, even if they want us to win. I just don't get it. We've lost 4 in a row so many times, this year, and many times, we followed that with 4 or more wins in a row, even very recently- like last week, but many have given up all hope in that happening again. In some of those turn-arounds, we heard, "well, we played all losing teams." Well, we are now, too. the last month: win 3 lose 3 win 2 of 3 lose 2 win 7 lose 4 I'm not sure why winning 4 out of 5 seems so impossible, to some. Hell, we may squeak in by winning 3 of 5.

I'm not saying it has no value. Of course it does. But, we are talking about 50-60 more balls put into play vs a K, and maybe 3-6 of those might be DPs based on Dalbec's incredibly low GIDP numbers. Yes, force an error or two, move a few runners over- maybe some score. I'm just saying any net gain is likely very slight, and if OBP and OPS are even, I barely care about that difference and do wonder if it even is a net gain over the extra DPs. If it's Dalbec vs JD, I'll take 150 more Ks over 20 more DP's

The shorter contract is what might be most appealing to Bloom & Henry. I like Stroman and Gausman, but they do not seem like the types I'd give 5+ years to.

I certainly don't predict us winning more than a round, at most, if we make the playoffs, but it is nice to make it. Baseball is not an easy game to play. It's easy to read into results what you want, and I'm as guilty as anyone for doing that. We should beat the O's 60-70% of the time. While those odds look very nice, losing any one game is not some freaky event that has to mean we quit or didn't seem to have any "fight" in us. I'm sure that loss hurt every player on the team, and maybe they are trying too hard. Maybe not. I just know this team has shown a lot of grit over the whole season- even in the last 10 days, 20 days, 40 days and 60 days. We've looked defeated several times, only to bounce back and bounce back hard. I think we have one more in us. The negative fans can bash me all winter wrong, if we botch this, but I still believe this team will make the playoffs. The one game WC game is a toss-up. The first round is likely going to be an exit, but stranger things have happened.

I'm not clinging to either number. I just brought up the 10-9 to make a point. Do I think some teams just seem to have another team's number? Of course. Does recency have some affect? Sure, maybe a little, but really, you are saying it is virtually all that matters, and that is just plain wrong. I have agreed over and over, the Sox at this moment suck, but my point is that has changed all year long and the odds are, it will again, soon. Just look at the game logs for the yanks, Sox and Jays. They are littered with unexplained reversals of fortune and trends. Of course we aren't the same team as earlier, this year. We added Sale, Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw and a FT Houck. All that hasn't seemed to help improve our record, but even over the last month or two, this team has shown great highs and horrific lows- as have the Yanks and Jays. Can we continue to suck for he next 5 games? Of course we can. Can we turn things around, like we have dozens of times this year and even recently? Of course we can. You seem to act like we are predetermined to fail based on some silly and arbitrary date where we became a different team. Just since mid August, this team has shown the guts to turn things upright after looking doomed. We lost 3 straight to the yanks in mid August then won 6 of the next 8. Then, we lost 3 straight, including the first 2 to TBR. Immediately, we won the next 2 vs TBR and 2 more for 4 straight wins. Feeling energized, we then flopped again: We lost 3 straight and 6 of 8, before winning 2 at SEA (not an easy thing to do) on our way to 7 straight wins. Yes, less than a week ago, we had won 7 straight, and now it is impossible to imagine we turn it around, one more time. We've seen 7 flips in about 5 weeks, but one more is impossible to even fathom, to you. Again, I'm not predicting we see one more flip, but I see plenty of reason to hope for one more. I can't see why others are 100% convinced we are doomed. I won't get into other teams, because that upsets you, but they have flipped and flopped about as much as we have over the past 2 months. The Yanks had the biggest flop of any of us- not too long ago, but you are convince they cannot do that again. I'm sure you'll be thrilled to "I told you so," if we continue imploding. It very well might happen. I still like our chances. We have the lead and play weaker teams. That matters as much as "head-to-head" vs a team we don't even play in the next 5 games. Sorry, but that just sounds absurd to me to completely write off any chance we win 4 or 5 out of the next 5.

I get that, but why Porcello? There are 10 Porcellos every year, but posters gravitate towards the known names. I understand why, but they rarely say "a guy like Porcello." They say, "Porcello!"

No. My point was I don't care about K's, if the other numbers are fine (or equal to someone who K's less and hits into more DPs.) Of course I'll take a guy with better OPS and less K's over a high K guy with a lower OPS and OBP.

This one area that kills me to watch. Mike Greenwell never learned this.

I'm really trending hard towards trading JD for the best we can get, even if we have to pay $7-9M, which I doubt we'd have to. Bringing Schwarber back or using Dalbec/Devers at DH and 3B has a lot of merit, assuming Casas can be a plus in MLB, next year.

Does anybody have any evidence on how valuable a player who puts the ball in play 50 more times than another is worth? 100 times more? Does it offset 4 or 5 more DP's over a full season? I'd do the research, if I knew where to look. I'm open to persuasion.

If I had to bet we lose the playoff berth on one thing, it would be an error or non play in the last inning- not going down 1-2-3 or a RP'er letting up a granny while up 3.

I spoke in general terms: "I don't get the fixation..." Don't pretend you've never heard others wish we had JBJ back. Beni back. Kimbrell back. Betts back (has merit). Even Porcello back. Hell, some were bummed we traded Price.

Wow, Dalbec sucks because of Sunday. I prefer a ball put in play over a K, too, but to what degree does it outweigh the other aspects of a player's offense. Everything else being even, sure, I'd take the guy who K's 150 times over the 200K guy, even if he hits in 6 DPs vs 3, but my point is the difference is so slight. I'm not even sure the 3 extra DPs outweighs the moving runners up on an out. I know I can be pretty stubborn, but I have been known to change my opinion when confronted with evidence. Here is some evidence: GIDP Dalbec 3 in 537 MLB PAs/ 28 in 1609 minor league PAs (31/2146 or 1 every 69 PAs) Casas: 17 in 856 PAs (1 every 50 PAs)

Again, I can't disagree more. Head-to-head means very little in the playoffs, and we aare 10-9 v the Yanks and Rays. We are 4-3 against the M's. I'm not arguing we look like we suck "at the moment." My point is, and the season trends back me up, is that what anyone has done in the last 4 games means squat. It does not define who you will be in the next 4-5. Why do you and other keep clinging to this notion after being continually proven wrong, all year long?

It's not the first time posters have pined for over the hill ex Sox players. Sorry if lumping you in with them offends you.

Almost every no hit- great glove is available by trade, too. Here are all the CF/RF FA options. CENTER FIELDERS Starling Marte (33) Chris Taylor (31) Jackie Bradley Jr. (32) -- player option Brett Gardner (38) -- mutual option Michael A. Taylor (31) Kevin Pillar (33) -- player option Billy Hamilton (31) Delino DeShields (29) Juan Lagares (33) Jake Marisnick (31) -- mutual option Cameron Maybin (35) Ender Inciarte (31) -- club option Ian Desmond (36) -- club option RIGHT FIELDERS Nick Castellanos (30) -- can opt out Avisaíl García (31) -- club option Michael Conforto (29) Charlie Blackmon (35) -- player option Kole Calhoun (34) -- club option Ehire Adrianza (32) Dexter Fowler (36) Steven Souza Jr. (33) Jorge Soler (30) Jarrod Dyson (37) Adam Eaton (33) -- club option Matt Joyce (37) Gregory Polanco (30) -- club option

Totally uncertain, yes. I'm not projecting wins. I'm refuting the idea that we are destined to lose based on a 4 game sample size or our September 13-10 record.

That's just not true. The Sox swept the Rockies who won like 21 straight to make the playoffs. Most recent records has very little affect on future record- maybe slightly more than overall season record does. This season has been a yo-yo. If you go by trends, one should expect us to win 5 in a row more than lose the next 5.

I mentioned Marisnik, but do you really need me to name great defensive OF'ers that are cheap?

I'm not for spending big on RP'ers. If getting JBJ lessened the cost of getting Hader, I'm certainly willing to agree. I just don't get the weird fixation on JBJ, and I was a huge JBJ fan.

Show me how putting the ball in play vs striking our 8% more is such a great asset? Then, subtract the double or more GIDP's Casas hits into. Now how much does it matter? I never said putting the ball in play is equal to a K. I just said it's value is overblown, and why not prove me wrong? Where's the data? BTW, saying Dalbec K's 4 times can be viewed as obstinate.

I am not disputing 2021's numbers. He is in decline, and this was a blip. Why is JBJ a better choice than dozens of other great defenders?

Again, why is September a better predictor of the next 5 games than anything else? Why not pick the last 11 games out of your hats? Sox 7-4 TOR 5-6 It's all how you want to see things. Yes, we lost 4 straight, and we played like s***. That has nothing to do with today.

No. I'm just pointing out that when people say we have too many weaknesses to deserve to be in the playoffs, they are implying more than the teams that do deserve it. I know we have a ton of weaknesses, but we still deserve a shot at making the playoffs, because other teams do, too. This whole "right now" rant annoys me. It means nothing, tonight or tomorrow. teams have turned on a dime dozens of times, all year, but suddenly that all must change, now, because the Yanks look great now, and we don't. Look, you might be right. The Yanks might win 4 of the next 5 and we continue playing poorly, but what about the way this season has gone makes you think what you did yesterday matters today and tomorrow. It has been the exemplar for refuting the "recency effect."