I'd say...
1) ERod refuses the QO and we get a comp pick.
2) JD does not opt out.
3) Schwarber, Ottavino, Robles and some lesser players go to free agency.
4) We do not take the options on Richards or Perez, but we do take Vaz's $7M option.
5) We sign 4 moderate free agents and a few low cost scrubs.
I'm thinking we may look at but not hand away the 3 players set to be free agents after 2022:
Bogey
JD
Vaz
(Hard to count on even one of these happening.)
Bringing Iggy, Shaw or Robles back might happen.
Where we slot Whiltock and Houck are slotted in the staff is a bit up in the air, here is the foundation for 2022:
SP1. Sale
SP2. Eovaldi
SP3. Whitlock
SP4. Pivetta
SP5. Seabold
RP1. Houck
RP2. Taylor
RP3. Barnes
RP4. DHern
RP5. Brasier
RP6. Sawamura
RP7. Valdez
RP8. Davis/Bazardo
C Vaz, Plawecki
1B Dalbec, Casas
2B Arroyo, Arauz
3B Devers
SS Bogey
LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero
CF Kike
RF Renfroe
DH JD
My guess is we sign a solid #2 SP'er, #4 SP'er, Set-up man & Utility Infielder (Iggy?). That would create this:
S1. Sale
S2. ____
S3. Eovaldi
S4. ____
S5. Pivetta (Seabold)
R1. Houck
R2. Whitlock
R3. _____
R4. Barnes
R5. Taylor
R6. DHern
R7. Brasier
R8. Sawamura
R9. Valdez/Davis/Bazardo
C Vaz, Plawecki
1B Dalbec, Casas
2B Arroyo, _____ (Iggy?)
3B Devers
SS Bogey
LF Verdugo, Duran/Cordero
CF Kike
RF Renfroe
DH JD