moonslav59

I think Alonso likes NY, but I'm not sure he was too happy with the contract offer made last winter. If that was the Sox, some would be saying it was a disrespectful offer, and claim that's why nobody likes to play here, anymore.

I agree. Alonso is now a year older. Sure, he had a better season in '25 than '24, but it was his third best OPS+ season, so it's not like "WOW, he's getting even better." I could see us signing Alonso and the Mets signing Bregman. They may just sign another FA 1Bman and use the money on Tucker or a pitcher. They had a .598 OPS in CF in 2025. 1B is an easier slot to fill than OF and pitching. Yes, they could give Baty and Vientos a shot at 1B and move at the deadline, if needed.

It's hard to know what STL's thinking is, but I have to think they'd like to get out from under some large contracts, and BTV has 3 players underwater. Arenado (please, God, NO!!!) Owed $27M in '26 W Contreras (we need a 1Bman with some power.) Owed $18M in '26, $18.5M in '27 w $17.5M option for '28 w $5M buyout, so essentially $41M/2 or $54M/3 Sonny Gray (We could use a solid pitcher, but his age is worrisome.) He's owed $35M in '26 w $30M option for "27 and $5M buyout, so $40M/1 or $65M/2. AAV Numbers are significantly different from what is owed on some: $30.5 Arenado (They'd have to take Yoshida for me to even consider taking him.) BTV -16 seems like he is way more in the hole. $24.8M Gray (This is reasonable) BTV -9 $17.5M Contreras (Not bad) BTV -24 (seems harsh) Donovan is +32 on BTV BTV would accept Rafaela for Donovan or maybe Campbell. Donovan + Contreras= $8M value. If we could get STL to take Hicks, maybe Casas, Harrison + Hicks comes close.

I'd probably give all 4. KMarte's AAV would help us be able to spend more for years to come. He might be better than Alonso, despite being a year older. I'd love to get KMarte & Alonso plus a trade for Lodolo or Ryan. Campbell, Garcia & Clarke for Ryan or Abreu + DHam for Lodolo (Maybe Garcia + Crawford)

While many added to the 40 were in the Sox system before Brez arrived, a significant portion were acquired by Brez: 16 on the 40: Weissert & Fitts (Dugo) Slaten (Ammons) Grissom (Sale) Crochet (Teel & package) Narvaez (Elmer Rod) Harrison & Hicks (Devers) Moran (Gasper) Sandlin (Schreiber) T Gray (Guerrero) Romy (waivers) Tolle (draft) FA: Chapman, Sandoval, Criswell, Eaton (MiLBFA) soxprospects.com's prospect rankings (Brez guys) 1. Tolle (on 40) 4. Witherspoon 8. Clarke 9. Gonzalez 11. Fajardo 12. Soto 13. Sandlin (on 40) 14. Phillips 15. Eyanson 16. Godbout 21. Holobetz 23. Travieso 27. Azocar 28. Delzine 29. Ramos 30. Rivas Cason, Aita, YRod, Nunez, Tygart, M White, Jo Rod, Rivera, Neeley, Foutch, B Morgan, Primera, M Martin, Jo Bello, Fermin, Ogando, Patton, Bravo

Cool. I thought we did! cots has us paying $2M/yr for Devers going forward.

I think he has slipped on the routes he takes. His arm is too weak. He's okay, but better in LF, IMO. He's the worst defender of the 4. (5 counting Garcia)

Exactly, nobody has said or believes that if BTV says the trade is acceptable, it is balanced or likely to happen. I have very strong feelings about some of their ratings being way off, but that is no different from my feelings towards some people's opinions on players' values, too. Probably, BTV is more accurate than any one of us alone. (You and MVP would probably object to this... LOL.) I don't know as much about players on other teams, so BTV numbers kinda set a range of what might be possible, but as you pointed out many times, it does not factor in how much a GM values the player or a team's needs or short/long term plans. I'd like to think I know the Sox players pretty well, so here are some issues I have with BTV on these ratings: (These are values I could find by looking at trade suggestions made by others, since I am not a paying member) 61 Anthony 55 Mayer 50 Duran 33 Early 31 Rafaela 26 Abreu 23 Tolle, Campbell 22 Arias 18 Witherspoon 17 Crawford 16 Garcia, Clarke 14 Casas (I'd say this is high,) 12 Perales, Romy 10 Harrison 9 Cespedes (way too high) 8 Fitts, Phillips, Romero (seems high) 7 J Gonzales 6 Sandlin, Eyanson 5 Sandoval 4 Weissert, Godbout, Dobbins (seems low) -3 Luis Castillo -18 Hicks (He's owed $24M, so looks about right) -25 Yoshida (He's owed $36M, so this seems about right) -37 Story I wonder what Bello, Valera, Fajardo, Paez and Holobetz are valued. I'm sure Crochet is worth more than 60 or 70, even at his cost. Targets or Dreams 127 Skenes (Anthony + Mayer?) 82 H Greene (Mayer + Campbell?) 79 Ragans (Duran + Arias?) 61 K Marte (Duran + Harrison?) 61 Skubal (1yr) Mayer? 53 Joe Ryan (Duran via 3rd team or Campbell + Arias?) 48 Gore (Duran?) 45 Gilbert 39 G Willimas 31 Lodolo (Campbell + DHam?) 27 Peralta (1yr) Abreu? 26 Luzardo (Abreu?) 18 Sale (Harrison + Fitts?) 17 P Lopez (Garcia or Clarke?) 14 Ja Jones (Casas or Garcia?) 12 Bubic (Perales?) 9 M Keller (Harrison?) -9 S Gray (Dobbins + Hicks?) -12 S Murphy (match with Hicks?) -24 W Contreras (match with Yoshida?)

It's pretty amazing how quickly the roster has morphed into Brez's team. While many added to the 40 man roster were in the system before Brez, these are some eye-opening facts: 12 players have been added to the 40 since the 2025 season started. 21 players were added after the 2024 season began. 27 players were not on the 40 on the 2023 season's final day. Only 13 played on the 2022 team! (One is Houck and will not play in 2026, which means maybe 12 players from 2022 play on the 2026 team.)

I think he was worth it, so saying "overpay" needs context. IMO, all major FA signings are overpays, on paper, and most turn out that was in reality. Yes, it's $32M, but that deferred money still counts and is applied to the Lux tax those years.

I enjoyed BTV, until they wanted money to play around. You cans till look at trade proposals and get a feel for some player values, but you can't see the team lists or make trades yourself. That was kinda fun. I always tried to give the other team more value, and often times more people gave a thumbs down on the Sox side of the trade, so I think I was being realistic. I see they think Duran for Lodolo is a gross overpay by the Sox, but I'd do it. Duran for KMarte is pretty close, too. I'd jump at that and add Harrison. I don't get why a bunch of fans playing around with trade suggestions upsets Red, so much.

I love taking chances like the Crochet trade, and to me, the extensions was just as important and a bit ballzy. I'd love to see us trade for another younger SP'er this winter.

IMO, Duran slipped on D. I think he is a LF'er, but is acceptable in CF.

To be honest, I'd rather trade two OF'ers than none. It is that clear to me that one needs to go. We also have Campbell and Garcia, who I probably trust more than others. Both are RHB with lots of promise. I'm also more okay with Masa in LF than most, as long as it is not the only option, and with Campbell and Garcia, it shouldn't be. Now, I'm not for handing 2 away. I'm thinking large package deals for two key players like KMarte plus Ryan or Lodolo- maybe Mitch Keller at worst. Masa in LF also opens up a slot for Schwarber, or if we sign Alonso, Casas can DH. Assume we trade Duran & Abreu, and get Ryan, KMarte and Alonso: 1. Anthony, 2. KMarte, 3. Casas, 4. Alonso, 5. Story, 6. Masa, 7. Narvaez, 8 Mayer, 9. Rafaela Assume we trade Duran & Rafaela: our O is better but the D is worse: LF Masa/Garcia or KC CF Anthony RF Abreu Assume Abreu and Rafaela: LF Masa/RHB, CF Duran, RF Anthony

Never count out JH & Co.

He's making peanuts.

The Domers ran all over the CUZZ. Wow! 24 Rushes and 329 yards. Only passed 15 times. No top 12 teams lost, but #12 Utah almost did. #11 BYU just started. Most bubble teams won.

I'd go like this: 1 from Alonso, K Marte or Schwarber 1 from Ryan, Lodolo, Ragans or maybe a smaller one year players like Peralta or Bubic. 1 from Bregman, Bichette, Suarez or Polanco.

Huh? I'm all for trading one or two.

Top xFIP FA SP'ers in 2025 79 Valdez (18th) 86 Cease (22nd) 88 R Suarez (26th) 92 M Kelly & Bassitt (35th) Possible Trade options: 72 Nate (7th) 1st in ERA- 74 Sale (9th) 11th in ERA- 75 S Gray (12th) 87 Ryan & Bubic (23rd) Bubic was 8th in ERA-/Ryan 36th 88 Lodolo & E Cabrera (27th) Lodolo 25th in ERA-/ECab 37th 91 Gore (34th) 93 Peralta (39th) 14th in ERA-

I'm not really impressed by the 2026 FA SP'er class. I realize signing one means we don't have to trade major pieces or prospects to get a solid #2 SP'er, but most are older and or coming off frequent injuries or an off year or two. I like Lodolo & Ryan more than Cease, King, Valdez, Gallen and other FAs. I suggest we use the budget for Offense and trade capital for a #2 SP.

It is stunning that the last large and long deal for a FA was Price. Thatw as for the 2016 season- TEN YEARS AGO! The Story and Yoshida deals were not very large nor very long. JD was not either. The Sale and Devers extensions were significant, but that's not adding a player. When you look at the complete history of the Sox under JH, you'll see it's not really his MO. He does allow some major signings, but rarely like the Price one. Manny was signed before JH and was eventually traded. The two long extensions given out saw those players traded, too, with Devers dealt a little over 1 year into the time his extension kicked in. Carl Crawford was the next highest signing (2011) and he was traded away, too. Lackey was a pretty big signing, adjusting for inflation, and I guess 5 years can be counted as "long," but he was dealt away, too. Pablito & HRam's signings combined for a big splash but neither was a mega deal, and again, neither lasted their whole deals. This really is not anything new with JH. His MO is more about having GMs that make mega deals for top SP'ers and extending them. Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale, Porcello and finally Crochet. He signs significant FA, like Damon, Mueller, Beltre, JD, Story and others but rarely very large AND very large. Most are not mega large (like Bregman) or mega long (like Price & CC.) I hope that changes, but maybe Alonso will go for a 5 year deal, but it will likely be mega "large."

I should not have mentioned him. Yes, he was an injured SP'er signing bit not over 30, which was what my list was about. My bad. I just want to add a pitcher that is neither old nor recently injured. I disliked the Gio signing, but pointed out that at least he was reliable, and look where that one got us! LOL.

Sandoval was not on my list. I mentioned him and his age as an afterthought apart from the list. I do not see his success or failure as part of the trend, since he was not over 30, but he does count in the trend of signing oft-injured or recently injured signings.

I'm not even a paying member of BTV, so I do not have access to the values of all players. I make suggestions all the time without using BTV, Sometimes others point out the BTV over/underpay. I knew you'd deliver a non answer. We are all fully aware that our suggestions have a teenie tiny chance of ever happening, but we like to get specific with our suggestions instead of just overgeneralized criticism of others' idea or actual Sox moves made. I have come out and said guys like Skenes, Greene, Brown and others are not available, unless a gross overpay is offered. I'm not sure how you take this to mean we can or will trade for one. I'm saying we won't. Deals like Crochet come along, every so often. We all knew he was available, so that makes that type of deal more predictable, and we saw plenty of predictions/suggestions (however you want to view them) and I don't think anyone came close to the actual haul needed to get him. I think most felt it was a lot to give, but we knew it would take a lot. Many felt we overpaid. Some who felt that (like me) thought it was still worth it. My own opinion was that it risked being a gross overpay, if we did not extend him at a reasonable cost. I still think that. We kinda wasted his first year with us by not going all in. Had we not extended him, we'd have a one year window with him, and a gloomy outlook for 2027 and beyond with a team without Teel and the others we gave the CWS. We all have differing views on value and trades made or suggested. Yous eem to indicate you don't care for much of what we discuss or suggest, but then seem to get upset when we do.