moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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4 and 1 or 3 and zero sure.
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Yes, but to me 5 IP and 2 ERs or 8IP is as good or better.
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Or 7 years. I get it.
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That's what I think. -
If the reports are true, it was a hard slap to his face. Maybe even hard enough for him to more readily waive his no trade contract at the deadline. (Could that have been the motivation?)
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I'm just trying to think of creative ways to keep Devers. I don't think even $240M/8 will keep him here. I want him here, so we have to either raise the AVV or lengthen the deal. At Devers age, I'm thinking the length is a better gamble than the higher AVV. More likely, he'll get somewhere in between- like $290-300M/10, and if you are willing to give that, how can $340M/14 be any worse vs that deal?
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Ive tried very hard to separate what I think Bloom/Henry will do and what I think they should do. I'm trying to show how a contract like $300M/14 to a 25 year old everyday player may be less risky than a $217M/7 deal to a 31 year old pitcher. I, too, doubt Bloom will give anything above $220-240M/8, but I like to give my opinions.
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Could be, and we might not see 2021 D.
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Agreed, but while we still have him, I think we should think like that. Saying that does not mean Henry and Bloom are listening and will agree with me, but I am not ready to start talking about trading Devers vs getting nothing for him. That talk can wait, IMO. Talk of trading Bogey, at the deadline, or getting nothing is fair game.
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To me, Devers is worth $320M/11 or 12, and would likely get that. I'm thinking $320M/14 is no more hurtful, and if Devers can still be a plus at years 12, 13 & 14, it's a better deal. Teams sometimes spread out the payments beyond the contract years, so this is no different, except maybe Devers can still play at ages 36-38. Many players still produce at that age, and Devers is special. I think he cans till DH at those ages.
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I get that, really I do. I'm thinking of a way to get Devers to stay, and I'm not si sure Devers will be a burden, like Miggy or Pujols were, because his AVV, even before figuring expected inflation will be much lower, and he will be younger than they were, when he hits the back-end of the contract. We all know, the AVV and lux tax seems to matter more than actual dollars to Henry. (Dice-K, Rusney, Moncada...) I understand the risk, but I think the low cost and AVV on the front end outweighs the back end risks. This is not like signing a 31 year old pitchers to $31M x 7. It's signing a 25 year old everyday player to 14 and about 2/3 the cost per year- not counting inflation. Who knows, maybe $22M will be chump change in $9 years.
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So, maybe .660 to break even and .700 to be a nice plus?
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But paying Devers just $20M, when he's worth nearly $30M for the first 8 years makes up for the last 6. Miggy is not making $20M, and when you figure inflation and when Miggy was signed, this is apples to oranges.
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We all know, he won't take $200/8 or even $220/8. My point about offering him 12-14 years is about finding a way we might keep him, while also lowering the AVV. I get the risk of signing anyone to even 10 years, let alone 12-14, but at his age, it's not so crazy. The difference between $220/8 and $320/14 is that he might take the $320, and we keep a valuable & loveable player. The "extra $100M" can be viewed as paying that for his final 6 years. That's under $17M a year for ages 33-38. Sure, that looks like a big gamble, but with inflation and the added benefit of dropping the AVV from $27.5 to $22.9 allows us to more easily reset every now and then over the first 8 years of the deal. Of course the last 6 might be a burden, but it might not, if Devers ages well..
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You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal. The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.
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Yes, certainly there is a significant chance he ends up as a net plus, even if his defense may slip a little as he ages. The question is, what does he have to hit to break even (or out net Renfroe?) .625? .650? .675? .700?
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It all comes down to the idea that his defense will outweigh his poor offense to become a net plus.
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It sure seems that way.
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So does Hamilton. Speaking of K's, Downs has 15 in 27 ABs. Cordero 12 in 34 ABs.
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Here's a closer look at Sox big spending (Free Agents, IFAs & Extensions) since 2007: (Help me fill in any missing big deals.) 2007: $70M/5 JD Drew $52M/4 Papi $52M/6 Dice-K (plus mega posting fee) $36M/4 Lugo $30M/3 Beckett 2008: $38M/3 Lowell 2009: $41M/4 Youk $41M/6 Pedey $30M/5 Lester 2010: $83M/5 Lackey 2011: $142M/7 Crawford $68M/4 Beckett 2012: $154M/7 AGon $30M/4 Buchholz 2013: $39M/3 Vic $27M/2 Dempster $26M/2 Ortiz 2014: $110m/8 Pedey $73M/7 Rusney $32M/2 Napoli 2015: $95M/5 Pablito $88M/4 HRam $32M bonus Moncada (plus mega posting fee) $18M/2 Uehara 2016: $217/7 Price $83M/4 Porcello $16M/1 Ortiz 2017: 2018: $110M/5 JD M 2019: $68M/4 Eovaldi $20M/1 Betts (arb) $12M/1 Bogey (arb) 2020: $145M/5 Sale $120M/6 Bogey 2021: $14M/2 Kike $10M/1 Richards 2022: $140M/6 Story $19M/2 Barnes $10M/1 Paxton
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If you adjust for inflation, 2 of the larges and longest 5 (or 6) deals under Henry were for starting pitchers: $217/7 Price $142/7 Crawford $110/5 JD M $95.0/5 Pablito $88.0/4 HRam (Is 4 years long term?) $82.5/5 Lackey (Does 5 years of inflation catch HRam?) 3 of top 8 (add JD Drew and Eovaldi)
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This is what the Sox are known for doing. (Not always "young," but they trade for their aces and #2's a lot.
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So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?
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Hamilton and Binelas are both off to great starts in very limited sample sizes.
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Portland pulled out a win 4-3 by scoring 2 in the 9th. 15 Ks and 0 BBs by Seadogs pitchers. Murphy 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K German closed: 2 IP, 1H, 0 BB, 4 K Greenville won 9-6 Rafaela, McDonough, Binelas and Flores had 2 hits. Esplin had 3. Salem won 5-0. Gonzalez 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9K
