moonslav59

You are actually counting Sale and Paxton as 2 of the 4? I think counting them, combined, as one starter might be pushing our luck. Plus, you acted like you didn't really want to QO Nate or Wacha. (If we did, the budget won't allow your other ideas to all come true.) I'm assuming Pivetta and Whitlock are the other two. I'm okay with using Bello/Crawford/Seabold/Winckowski as our 6th>> starter, and maybe even our 5th and 6th starters, if we upgrade the top of the rotation. Bringing back an an aging Nate, who might be lucky to average 20 starts/year over this last 4 year contract is asking for big trouble. Okay, we trade for a solid #1 or #2, and things change enough for me to be fine, but we also need to bring back Nate or Wacha or someone like them. We can't use Houck and Whitlock as starters. Even one, we'd have to add to the pen in a major way. Our staff needs more attention than the line-up.

I'm not sure Bloom will have a big enough winter spending budget to sign all those guys, and no pitching, unless I "have faith in Paxton?" That's scary.

There is more left to see from Wacha and nate, but I'm leaning towards re-signing Wacha over Nate, right now. Our rotation was a problem, this year. How can you be okay losing Wacha, our best starter and Hill and just bring back the aging Nate with no other starters added? I'd go Swanson over Wong, but Wong would be fine. Nimmo or Laureano would be great with Kike.

All that really matters is if you can probably win without one.

I don't get a sense that they are playing hard or focused, but I don't get a sense they are not playing hard. When you win, you see the energy via enthusiasm and celebrations and it looks like they are trying hard, but sometimes many just don't look like they are trying when they lose. Maybe they are.

So, that's the "eye test." Looking at box scores and HR/RBI totals- none of those damn defensive metrics.

Add 2-3 significant players, a couple key role players and let the kids fill in the rest. We should be fine, next season, if we choose well on the 4-5 key roles we add or re-sign players to fill.

My Q... How many Brewer games did Sox fans watch? What exactly does "the eye test" mean, in this case. Eyeing the stats?

How many games did the Brewers lose when he was out hurt? My gut test says maybe 1-2.

I thought we should have traded all 1 year control players, even Bogey, if he agreed to waive his no-trade clause, but it is what it is. I'm not excited about Hosmer, and he may end up being DFA's, next year, but he a better placeholder for Casas than the Dalbec-Cordero choice was, this year. (They both still offer depth.) To me, Bloom has two very important choices to make: 1) Decide what positions he stays within the system. (Likely 1B- Hosmer/Casas/Dalbec, RF- Dugo/Refsnyder, LF-Pha/Duran, Pen- Houck/Whitlock/Schreiber/Taylor/Brasier/young starters converted to the pen) 2) Choose well when filling the others. (Likely 2B/SS, CF, SP1)

I never thought of that. That might have been a minor consideration. I also think Verdugo was pretty highly regarded, at the time, and was not some unproven prospects like so many here seem to abhor. Here are his adjusted to 650 PAs numbers for his previous season, where he played 106 games: .295 20 80 (.817 OPS) Not bad for a 23 year old's first full look in the bigs. His recent 2 year decline is hindsight. Fair game, yes, but at the time, he was highly regarded. Gonsolin would have been a winner, but I doubt we had a chance for him. I don't think Bloom had an option to just say no to all offers and keep Betts. That seriously hampers all trade negotiations.

If we didn't dump that $72M, maybe we dump Betts and either Bogey or JD, or sign absolutely nobody else for a couple years (No Renfroe, Kike, Wacha...) I keep saying "context," but for real, it's needed, here.

Edit: Ooops... August 19th! Biggest series of the year, so far. Crawford vs Lyles. Go Sox! Win the first game!

Does every loss mean the guys don't care?

I only posted players already under team control. I don't think we need an expensive player to break even with this year's JD or even the 2020 to 2022 JD with an .804 OPS. I'm not sure bringing back Nate will come close to the Nate we had for 4 years, who only has started 71 (and counting) games in 3.8 years. I like Bogey and Wacha, but I'm not sure their cost will bring back the value in production. The guys you highlighted as trade or DFA material are just that, and won't save us any money. Trading someone like Verdugo and Sawamura might add enough money to upgrade another high need area without downgrading the one they vacate by nearly as much, but who wants them and will give equal value back? I think we may have to sacrifice some of the farm to really turn 2023 into a highly competitive season. I don't want a wholesale stripdown, but we have to give to receive- maybe Casas or Yorke, but likely teams will want Bello, Rafaela, Mayer or Bleis. Also, $84M is to stay under the line. There is a chance we have a priority to stay under the second line, so $104M could be the starting point. Having a few guys like Hosmer (free) and possibly a few farm pitchers taking over key staff roles in 2013, or going light at catcher might provide enough resources to make big bangs at 2-3 slots. We'll see.

2023 might be a big season for Sox prospects or a spectacular fizzle out. Plenty of Sox prospects will, should or could get a chance to shine in the bigs next year. Here are the most likely to see time: Casas 1B/DH Bello SP/RP Crawford SP/RP (graduated?) Wong C2 Mata SP/RP Winckowski RP/SP E Valdez 2B/DH German Set-up RP/Closer Duran OF (graduated) Downs Utility/SS-2B2 Murphy RP/SP Walter RP/SP R Hern C2/C3 Seabold RP/SP (graduated?) Here is one for you: which of these guys has the best chance to not only see time in the bigs in 2023, but to make a difference: Rafaela CF/2B Ward SP/RP Kavadas 1B/DH Lugo SS Binelas 3B Grandberg LF Feltman RP Thompson RP Wallace RP Drohan SP/RP

Cementing his place in AAAA.

I was thinking one half decade at a time.

You crack me up!

Seabold got shelled, tonight. (5 runs in .2 IP) Mata looked very good, again. ( 6IP, 4H, 0ER, 3BB, 7K)

Yes, I think that was the order of choices, but it's still a big what if...

That's how much your guy Price brought down the return. Remember when you said the Dodgers made out on getting Price for "only" $16M a year?

...and we kept Davis around this long, because he was out of options.

I agree. One interesting "what if" might be concerning the Sale extension. Had we not extended Sale, might we have offered more and kept Betts? We'd probably still have to have dumped Price, somehow.

A look at next year's budget (Lux Tax dollars in $Millions): 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 22.7 Devers (Estimate on Arb 3 of 3) 10.0 Paxton (Assuming we take the option) 9.4 Barnes 8.0 Pivetta (Estimate on Arb 2 or 3) 6.0 Pham (Assuming mutual option is taken) 6.0 Verdugo (Estimate on Arb 3 of 3) 4.7 Whitlock 3.0 Sawamura (Assuming we take option) 3.0 Brasier (Estimate on Arb 3 of 3) 2.0 Arroyo (Estimate on Arb 2 of 3) 1.0 McGuire (Estimate on Arb 1 of 3) 1.0 Refsnyder (Estimate on Arb 2 of 3) 1.0 Dalbec (Estimate on Arb 1 of 3) 1.0 Davis (Estimate on Arb 1 of 3) 1.0 Cordero (Estimate on Arb 2 of 3, may nontender) That's about $128.7M. Add $16M for player benefits and maybe $2.3M on 40 man roster players in the minors and an open 9 slots on the 26 man roster making the minimum or more. The first tax line is $232M, so it looks like we can spend $84M and stay under the tax line for those 9 slots. Some can be filled by min salary players already in the system. 9 roster slots on the 26 and 14 more on the 40 equals 23. Right now, those 23 might be: Hosmer (min salary) Houck Schreiber Mata Taylor Wong Bello Crawford Winckowski Duran Danish Downs Seabold Davis RHern Ort, Ja Davis, DHern Rule 5 Casas Rafaela German Murphy Walter Maybe: Paulino, Wikelman Gonzalez, Ward, Wilyer Abreu or others