moonslav59

We can throw cash with Nate and JD and get decent prospects. Some prospects we get will not work out, but stockpile them anyway. We got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so good thing can happen, just do t expect that return on every deal.

He might have expected it, before the year started.

Mercy, mercy, mercy. Every slot in the Jays line-up got on base 3 or more times! This was as sickening as a game could possibly be.

Might be the lowest leverage situation in MLB history.

I always hate starting next year's thread, because it means this year's hopes are over. I guess I can say I still have a sliver of hope for the 2022 season, but I'd be lying. This season started like a cluster, turned real nice for a bit, and then turned sour quickly. I'm not going to blame injuries, since teams like the Yanks have had tons of injuries during years we have beaten them. I'm going to look at where we go from here, and specifically what we can maybe expect in 2023. First, we need to look at trading anybody and everybody not part of our long term plans for the best we can get. I'll start with the easy part- one year controlled players: Bogey: He has a no trade clause, but he'd probably waive it to get a chance for a ring, especially if he feels like he won't be coming back to Boston, next year. I'm not sure just how much we'd get for him, but he's the one with the most value. (Thanks for many good memories.) JD Martinez: I could see us trying to bring him back on a shorter term, lower cost contract, but then I think these DH only guys getting towards an age where serious decline normally is already in progress, why not look for someone with a more promising future. Get what we can, but get something. (Thanks for earning your keep, JD.) Eovaldi: Despite his recent troubles, he may still have or build some value in his next 1-2 starts. Get what we can. I doubt we re-sign him, either. (Thanks for stepping up in 2018. A true hero.) Vaz: Might get a decent return. I doubt we try hard to bring him back, anyway. (We tried to trade for Stalling, last winter.) Kike: His injury may make his trade value near zero, but see what we can get. (Thanks for 2021, Kike!) Wacha: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Too bad you got hurt.) R Hill: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Just didn't work out.) Strahm: Get what we can. (Looked good for 3 months.) Plawecki: Sorry, but he won't be missed. Now, the Options: JBJ: Just say NO! Eat the $8M buyout that counted on this year's tax bill, and don't even think about him earning the $4M more he'd get for 2023, if we give him the option. Paxton: $13M team option or $4M player option. I'd think we'd take this one, but if we decide the priority is 2024 and beyond, maybe not. Sawamura: $3M option or $600K buyout. I'd say no, and move on. I think Cora agrees. Not sure about Bloom. Assuming no 1 year guys come back, and only Paxton's option is given, here is the starting framework for 2023: Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now SP 25.6 Sale 8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3) .72 Winckowski (pre Arb) .72 Crawford (pre Arb) .72 Mata (pre Arb) .72 Bello (pre Arb) minor Seabold (pre Arb) minor Groome (pre Arb) RP 9.4 Barnes 4.7 Whitlock 3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now of this winter) 1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23) 1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4) 1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining) .80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3) .73 Houck (pre Arb) .73 Schreiber (pre Arb) minor Danish (pre Arb) minor P Valdez (pre Arb) minor K Ort (pre Arb) C .72 Wong (pre Arb) .72 R Hernandez (pre Arb) 1B ~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3) .73 Dalbec (pre Arb) 2B 23.3 Story 1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23) 3B ~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3) SS .72 Downs (pre Arb) LF ~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3) CF .72 Duran (pre Arb) RF ~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3) That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions. To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M. To get to $12M over, like we are, now, we might spend about $104M. I'd say it's safe to say we might spend $90-100M over the winter, assuming we aren't looking at 2024 as the turn-around season. We have some Rule 5 Players that almost certainly be added to the 40: Casas Rafaela German Walter Murphy W Gonzalez Paulino Possibles: Bonaci Cottam Feltman Jimenez Koss, Northcut, Granberg, TWard, Santos, Song Adding Free Agents (assuming 7 Rule 5 additions), we have 2 open slots. Any more would mean trading or DFA'ing: Diekman, Ort, Valdez, Arroyo, DHern, Brasier and maybe Groome. Let's assume 6 additions. That leaves this for the 40: SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Walter, Murphy, Gonzalez RP: Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, _____, Taylor, Davis, Brasier German, Danish, DHern C: _____, Wong R Hernandez 1B: _____, Dalbec/Cordero Casas, Cordero/Dalbec 2B: Story Paulino 3B: Devers SS: ______, Downs LF: Verdugo, Duran CF: ______ Rafaela RF: Refsnyder

Just like that- negative run differential on the season.

No Refsnyder love?

Every year I get older, I think I'm catching up. Wrong, again.

Does he still have the same trade deadline value?

You missed the Whitlock point, LOL!

I thought It would take 10-11 games to decide if we’ll be sellers. It looks like I’m wrong about another thing, this year.

I have several ahead if Groome. I think he may be traded.

Good summary. I feel a little better, but I’m still not all gah-gah, yet.

Vaz? Even if you like what he’s given the last 2-3 years, should t we expect decline, soon?

Take a look at Vaz’s 1BERA!!! Lol

That’s how I feel. Assuming the budget stays the same or grows, this winter will be his make or break moment. No excuses, despite still having some deadwood. All our GMs had some.

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

I hope you have Fun, Fun, Fun.

The Beach Boys did cover the song.

California Dreamin'

There are so many realistic choices: 1. Go all in. 2. Go moderate 3. Stand pat 4. Buy & Sell 5. Sell a few assets 6. Fire Sale .

Don't Worry Baby

Agreed, so do you think there was no mistakes concerning the pen (not closer role) going into the season? (I for one, do not. I thought we had the horses to get to Sale, Paxton, Taylor & the deadline.)

From Covers... Player POS Status E. Hernandez CF Early Aug - Hip Flexor ( Wed, Jul 20) Hernandez has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right hip flexor strain. He has suffered a setback in recovery, and he is not likely to be activated until at least Early August. M. Wacha SP Early Aug - Shoulder ( Wed, Jul 20) Wacha has been assigned to the 15-day injured list with inflammation in his right shoulder, and he is not expected to return to the rotation until the early part of August. C. Seabold SP Early Aug - Forearm ( Wed, Jul 20) Seabold has been ticketed for the 15-day injured list with a right forearm extensor strain, and he is not likely to return until Early August. T. Story 2B Early Aug - Hand ( Wed, Jul 20) Story has landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hand contusion, and he will not be available until the early part of August. R. Hill SP Early Aug - Knee ( Tue, Jul 19) Hill has been shifted to the 15-day injured list with a left knee ligament tear, and he will remain idle until the early part of August. C. Sale SP Early Sept - Finger ( Sun, Jul 17) Sale is sidelined with a fractured left pinkie, and he is expected to miss four to six weeks. J. Winckowski SP Out indefinitely - Illness ( Sat, Jul 16) Winckowski has been added to the COVID-19 list, and it is unclear how long he will be idle. J. Taylor RP Out indefinitely - Back ( Sat, Jul 16) Taylor has hit the 60-day injured list with a lower-back soreness. He has suffered a setback in recovery, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. M. Strahm RP Out indefinitely - Wrist ( Fri, Jul 15) Strahm has been ticketed for the 15-day injured list due to a left wrist contusion, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. M. Barnes RP Mid Aug - Shoulder ( Wed, Jul 13) Barnes has been assigned to the 60-day injured list due to fluid in his right shoulder, and he will remain idle until sometime in August. C. Arroyo 2B Out indefinitely - Groin ( Sat, Jul 9) T. Danish SP Out indefinitely - Elbow ( Thu, Jul 7) Danish is on the 15-day injured list with right elbow discomfort, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. J. Paxton SP Early Aug - Elbow ( Mon, Jun 20) Paxton has been designated for the 60-day injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he is not likely to make his season debut until the early part of August.

A good closer might have turned 45 losses into 30? I don't disagree on those 3 weaknesses, that were noticed from the start and not just in hindsight. In hindsight, it's easy to say we should have used the JBJ money to get a real RF'er or 1B/RF player, used the Strahm, and Hill Diekman money to get just one solid closer type, or to use the Story & JBJ money to spread out over the closer, 1B, RF and 2B positions more evenly. I'm not sure many would disagree, at this moment in time, but the Story deal is just over 1/12th completed, so I'm not sure we can write off the deal as a failure, and one could argue, where would we be without his team leading 58 RBIs? I think, if you weigh the good with the bad and decent moves made, Bloom has done a good to very good job turning around the team, the farm and the long term financial situation. It's easy to point to just the mistakes.