moonslav59

Swanson has plau range and is ranked rather highly in several defensive metrics, except UZR/150. I admit I am relying on only metrics, and if he's close to Bogey in financial cost, I'd rather just pay Bogey. I get a feeling we go Andrus as a bridge to Mayer and then spend at catcher (Contreras or a trade for Murphy) OF (maybe take on Soler or Garcia's contract to get a solid SP'er from the Marlins) and another pen piece (Jansen or T Rogers?). This still leaves a lot of money left under the tax line. Maybe we sign Nate or Taillon, too.

Not me. I didn't imply others were.

Romero is a tough one for me. I'd rather we just sign Contreras, although I have pitching as a higher need.

Neither- get a SP! (Agree C > OF)

I don't think we sign Correa, either, despite the no QO status, but I was making a point about losing Bogey but maybe not "downgrading." I do think Swanson is a good choice. His 103 OPS+ since 2019 is far behind Bogey's 133 OPS+, but his defense might make us some of that "downgrade." If we use the money saved to better upgrade another position or two, maybe we can do better.

We haven't lost Bogey or Devers, yet, and there is a chance we replace Bogey with Correa. Is that a "downgrade?" If we replace Bogey with Swanson, and signed Contreras, Nimmo, Nate & Jansen, would you still be upset?

Bassitt reportedly seeking 4 year deal. (I thought 3 was pushing it, but He'll ge some GM to give it to him.) Murphy is reportedly close to being traded, and not to the Braves. The Sox are rumored to be seeking a catcher upgrade. Hmmm.... I don't see us giving up Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis, but I doubt we can get him without one of those 4. Let's see. Maybe we sign Contreras.

You really think Bloom chose to "dump" Betts? He was told what to do. Bogey is not worth what he'll get. Kudos to Bloom for not grossly overpaying Bogey. If we lose Bogey of a couple million, then I'm jumping on your bandwagon. Devers Forevers is my motto.

With so many teams and conferences of varying strength, it's hard to have a system that is totally objective. If you go by some computer generated formula, somebody creates that formula. When the playoffs are expanded, it will help- as most of the very best teams will make the playoffs, but there will always be debate about the one or two teams that just missed out. This way is better than the old polls, where sometimes there were two seperate #1's.

Assuming we have about $80M to spend, this winter, could this be what we see? Fangraph Estimates: $23.5 x 6 Swanson (or $10M x 2 Andrus. I doubt we go $28M x 6 Bogey or $32M x 8 Correa with no Hill) $15M Nate (or 12M x 3 Taillon, $11M/1 Kluber or $16M x 3 Bassitt) $12M x 2 Haniger (or maybe $12M/1 Conforto or $10M/1 Gallo) $12M x 1 Jansen $7.5x 2 Taylor Rogers $5M x 1 Hill That's just $75M More Quality over Quantity: $32M x 8 Correa $16M x 3 Bassitt $12M x 2 Haniger $12M x 1 Jansen $5M x 1 Hill Total $77M (Could DFA Brasier and have $5M buffer) Even more Quality (Ain't happening) $37.5M x 8 Judge $32M x 8 Correa $12M x 3 Taillon Total $81.5M (Could DFA Brasier and maybe trade some salary.) What if we go quantity over quality, again? $17.5M x 4 Contreras $15M x 2 Nate $12M x 1 Conforto (bridge to Rafaela) $11M x 1 Kluber $10M x 2 Andrus (bridge to Mayer) $7.5 x 2 Taylor Rodgers $5M x 2 Fulmer Total: $78M

Some interesting BTV numbers on Bloom acquisitions: Red= no draftee or IFA 1. Mayer 55.4 4. Whitlock 34.4 6. Schreiber 19.0 9. Bleis 13.6 10. Romero 8.7 11. Yorke 8.0 12. Anthony 6.5 13. Coffey 6.5 14. McGuire 6.5 16. Verdugo 5.7 19. Jordan 5.0 21. Paxton 4.2 24. Hosmer 3.1 25. Seabold 2.9 26. McDonough 2.7 28. Winckowski 2.6 29. Hamilton 2.4 32. Abreu 2.1 33. Wong 1.9 34. Rosier 1.8 35. Drohan 1.7 36. Hickey 1.7 37. Rodriguez-Cruz 1.7 38. E Valdez 1.7 40. German 1.4 Other Notabless: 1.3 Kavadas 1.2 Binelas & Ferguson 1.1 Downs 1.0 Kelly, Refsnyder 0.9 Pivetta 0.7 RHern & Koss 0.5 Gambrell 0.4 Wallace 0.3 Hamilton & C Martin 0.2 FValdez 0.1 Kike, de la Rosa, Ort 0.0 Park -0.3 Joely -0.6 Arroyo -7.8 Barnes (extension) -37.4 Story

I think they offered Bogey what they thought he was worth. That number is probably not "competitive." If the word that Bogey's agent will take the final offer back to BOS to match, makes me think it will be so far above our offer, we will say no.

Even if we get nothing from Garcia, the pay for both Garcia and Lopez will still be as good or better than FA SP numbers, but I think Garcia might be okay in RF or at DH. BTV has his salary at $41M, so his -26 numbers projects a value of $15M over 4 years- not great, but not terrible. (Production Value: 3.9/yr) As a reference, they have Verdugo at $17.3M salary and 22.9 value over 2 years. (Production Value: 11.5/yr)

The Marlins have stated they will not trade Alcantara, but are open to trading one of these guys. I know the offers will good and plentiful. To match or exceed other offers we may have to part with more than what we want or should do. To me, it's about years of control. I'm also wondering, if they would favor a deal that included a salary dump of OF'ers Soler and/or Garcia to clear some budget space for some minor FA signings, after the trade. Since we also need an OF'er, maybe a fit can be found. I'm not excited about Soler or Garcia and their contracts, but getting a solid SP'er at a low contractual cost would more than make-up for the overpays of an OF'er or two. Not having to sign a corner OF'er would also save us some money or trade capital. If we took both Soler and Garcia, maybe we send them Verdugo and possibly Barnes to lessen the financial hit on our budget. Here is what MBLTR says about their other starters. With that being said, the Marlins still boast a plethora of talent that may be moved as the team looks to boost the offensive production. Pablo Lopez will likely be the next name floated in trade scenarios. The righty pitched to a strong 3.75 ERA in 180 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%), walk (7.2%), and ground ball rates (46.7%) during the 2022 season. Career-wise, Lopez has pitched 510 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 47.8% ground ball rate. Lopez, who turns 27 years old in March, is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. As of late July, the Marlins had yet to engage in extension discussions with Lopez’s management and were listening to trade offers for the hurler. Jesus Luzardo is another potential Marlins’ trade candidate. Arriving from Oakland halfway through the 2021 season, Miami sent the hard-throwing lefty down to Triple-A to work on his mechanics before bringing him back to the major league roster as a starting pitcher. Despite missing over two months due to a left forearm strain, the 25-year-old was able to pitch 100 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball, with a hefty 30.0% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 40.7% ground ball rate. As a super-two eligible player, Luzardo has four years of team control left before reaching free agency. However, despite his strong 2022 season, Luzardo stumbled to a 5.66 ERA in 154 1/3 innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, losing his role with the A’s staff before joining Miami. Trevor Rogers is yet another talented and controllable Miami starter. A rookie All-Star in 2021, Rodgers experienced a sophomore slump with the Fish, pitching to a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings. Perhaps most troubling is that the lefty saw a sharp decline in his strikeout rate compared to his 2021 campaign (28.6% in 2021 compared to 22.2% in 2022). Nevertheless, the 25-year-old is only one year removed from a 2021 season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball, finishing runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting to Reds’ second baseman Jonathan India. Rogers is only arbitration-eligible after the 2023 season, having missed this year’s super-two cutoff. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are other starting pitchers that may find themselves the subject of trade talks as the offseason continues, but both of them have less than a year of service time and will likely factor into the Marlins’ future plans.y There are other teams looking to move solid SP'ers, but the Marlins are the obvious and ready source. BTV Numbers: 39 Lopez SP- 2 yrs of control 37 Rogers SP- 4 yrs 27 Luzardo SP- 4 yrs 18 Garrett SP- 6 yrs 10 Cabrera SP- 6 yrs 7.5 Berti UT- 3 yrs (can play RF and lead off) 3.8 Cooper 1B/DH- 1 year -21 Soler LF- 2 yrs -26 A Garcia RF- 4 yrs Sox Numbers: 55 Mayer 41 Casas 35 Devers 34 Whitlock 33 Bello 19 Schreiber 19 Houck 15 Rafaela 14 Bleis 9 Romero 8 Yorke 7 Anthony, Coffey & McGuire 6 Duran, Verdugo, Walter & Lugo 5 Jordan, Paulino 4 Mata, Murphy 3 Hosmer, Seabold, McDonough, Bonaci, Wink

What would you say is the M's weakest two areas and worst two players on the 40?

Yes, I said the rules say "Middy obstructed his way," but I do think Craig chose to take a longer path to home by curving towards Middy and stepping over Middy, instead of taking the easier and straight line from 3B to home. It was the right call. I also think Middy intentionally lifted his legs to trip Craig up, although intention is does not matter on that correct call. Great play by Pedey. If you notice on one angle, Craig hesitates a couple feet off second, then runs to 3rd. Had he not hesitated, maybe a throw is not made, of Middy could catch it. Real tough way to lose a game.

Who says no to this BTV approved trade rated "minor overpay" by the Sox? To BOS C Murphy (OAK) SP Urquidy (HOU) RP Stanek (HOU) To HOU C McGuire (BOS) LF Verdugo (BOS) To OAK 1B Casas (BOS) SS Leon (HOU) P Seabold (BOS) P Murphy (BOS) HOU gets it's two highest needs filled: LF & back-up C. BOS gets a top C and good SP & RP. OAK gets one big prospect and 3 second or third tier hopefuls. My guess is OAK says no, first. Houston second. Sox would do it.

True, but I don't think the rubric is about who is the best. It's about primarily records, then strength of schedule. I thought Alabama would be in. I also thought Ohio St would be #3.

They don't have Boyd anymore, though.

The thing that bothers me about that play is that Craig had a clear path from 3rd base to home, but he chose to push off the bag towards second base- not towards home- and chose a path right over Middy. Yes, Middy lifted his lower legs that ended up tripping Craig. The 1:16-1:18 mark shows it best. Had Craig just ran straight from 3rd to home, he wouldn't have needed to step over Middy. (And he'd have been safe.) To me, it was more his fault than Middy's but the rules still say Middy obstructed his way.

Final Rankings: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU 4. Ohio State 5. Alabama 6. Tennessee 7. Penn St. 8. Clemson 9. K State 10. Utah 11. USC 12. Wash (21. Notre Dame) Georgia v Ohio St in Peach Bowl Michigan v TCU in Fiesta Bowl

Agreed, and that is why I think the never shy GM might have one more big splash signing or trade left in him. They have made a couple 2 for one trades and have room of the roster to add at least one more stud. While their pitching looks deep, they may try and make another 2 for one trade, perhaps involving Flexon and then sign one more significant FA.

Many teams can say the same. The Sox have... 3. Bleis (18) a 5 tool stud. 7. Romero (18) looking like a steal in the '22 draft. 9. Anthony (19) looking like possibly the steal of the second round '22 draft. 10. Perales (19) showing great stuff. 15. Jordan (19) .808 OPS in '22 19. Rodriguez-Cruz moving up the rankings by leaps and bounds 21. Cutter Coffey (18) and Brooks Brannon (30) might surprise. Plus, #5 Yorke, #11 Paulino, #12 Wikelman & #16 Bonaci who all just turned 20.

Some selected quotes from soxprospects.com on our top 10 prospects: 1. Mayer: He showed an approach at the plate that belied his age, excellent gap-to-gap power which should translate into more home runs as he adds strength, solid, confident, and sometimes spectacular defense at shortstop, and leadership and an approach to the game more in line with the expectations of a veteran than an A-ball player in his first full professional campaign. Casas: It's hard to write about Casas in the context of being a prospect, because he's probably as ready as a prospect can ever be. By the time he was called up, he was utterly locked in at Worcester, driving the ball with authority--even his walks seemed to show swagger. Bleis: Miguel Bleis (pictured) hits baseballs very hard. Hard in a way that is completely out of alignment with being just 18 years old...; he is an extremely athletic center fielder who has the potential to be a plus defender in center and be a demon on the basepaths. Rafaela: It was a huge year for Rafaela, as he paired a breakout offensive season with highlight-reel defensive play in center field... He earned a promotion after only 45 games, an aggressive timeline usually reserved for some of the top prospects to have come through the system. Yorke: The tools to be a force at the plate are still there, keeping Yorke in the system's top five. Mata: At his best, he has the repertoire to stick as a starter, and there is little question that he has the physicality to match.... Even if Mata does end up in a bullpen, he possesses the high-end stuff that could make him a high-leverage late-inning weapon in the role. One wrinkle: Mata has just one option remaining, which may motivate the Red Sox to ramp him into a bullpen role, at least to start his MLB career. Romero: Boston apparently had Romero graded as a first-round talent. Initial reports have been very, very positive. He shows an advanced approach, gap-to-gap power, and he hits the ball very hard. With soft hands, good instincts, and decent range, he also has a chance to stick at shortstop. Walter: Provided he is healthy in 2023, Walter figures to be in line for a shot with the major league club. Anthony: Equipped with plus raw power, Anthony also showed ability to make consistent contact in his brief professional debut, striking out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances. Perales: The raw stuff is great, he just needs to get healthy.

I'd rather hear he's doing better than not, but I don't get all giddy over small sample sizes in winter ball over a guy who has gone too long with no signs of improvement in the one area he knows needs improvement.