moonslav59

Well, 5GG did post "the rest of us could care less if Chaim Bloom is "allowed" to spend $40 million or $400 million.." which isn't the same as saying there is no difference, but the point was made about it not mattering. There were also some posters who thought Bloom chose to cut the budget and trade Betts, and that it was not forced on him. One even argued Price was not a salary dump. On the flip side, nobody is arguing that Bloom spent every dollar wisely. I'm not even sure he spent half the money allotted wisely. My point was that when you have $40M to spend on 10 slots, expecting greatness fro $4M players is having unreasonable expectations. Couple that with the fact that the players Bloom inherited all declined, except devers, Vaz and Houck, and some by massive amounts, I don't view that as excuse-making but ather adding context to a difficult situation for any GM to create a successful team, unless sacrificing the farm was part of the plan given to the GM. Not "caring" is the right of any fan to do, and I don't blame any fan for not caring about budget facts, but that doesn't mean it's not important when judging the success of a GM.

That does make sense, since it's not the Sox that are forced to pay a minimum of $10M (6+4). cots used to be the rock.

It's ridiculous to think having a $40M winter spending budget is no different from $60 or $90M, not to mention year 1, when Bloom was forced to cut tens of millions of dollars- leading to the Betts/Price trade. It's true, Henry can spend $400M, if he wants, but that doesn't mean he allows Bloom to spend at will. It's plain and clear there have been budget restrictions given to our GMs over the years. Pretending that's not true does not make it so. It's always about how the money is spent, but certainly how much there is to spend each winter matters greatly, too. The fact that the majority of fans don't think or worry about it, doesn't mean it is not a significant factor in what we get for a roster to watch and cheer for or boo.

True. Sadly, when one goes- the other will follow.

Wink being a coin toss might be generous, but he might end up being a decent multi-inning RP'er, someday.

I don't remember people saying Renfroe would not earn his arb check, but some did say thing like "selling high" on him. I'm still scratching my head on that trade, and the prospect end of the deal is still unknown, but we ended up adding money and getting worse on the big club. The topic has been beaten to death, so I'll leave it at that.

Great analysis. The "eye test" shows the kid can pitch. He just needs to make some adjustments and learn a few things. He may learn quickly, or it may take time, but I'm thinking he becomes a real good starter, at some point. Mata might end up doing the same. I think Crawford, Wink, Seabold, Murphy and German all have a good chance to help the pen, next year. (OK, maybe not Seabold.)

Fine with flipping Belis and Rafaela. On Yorke, it's not so much about dropping him as the rise of the guys below him. I could see him being 7th on their list.

I've said all along, keeping Cashman is one of the best things to ever happen to the Sox. (Boone, too.)

I always thought being somewhat optimistic was part of being a good fan. I also don't think the pre-2022 optimsm was unwarranted. It took a hell of a lot of things turning sour, apart from the Bloom blunders, to add up to this mess. Sale injury Eovaldi decline & injury Wacha injury Hill injury Whitlock injury Houck injury & vax status Schreiber injury Taylor injury Strahm injury Barnes injury Story injury JD & Bogey power & RBI declines Kike injury Devers injury Arroyo's injury Refsnyder injury Dalbec's epic decline Verdugo decline (coming back up, too late) Plawecki's 200 point OPS decline (Almost every returning vet, except Devers, Vaz and Houck declined from '21) Of course, injuries and declines have to be expected but not on this scale. The need to throw blame at the manager and GM through all these misfortunes seems misguided, to me. I realize it's hard to have a positive attitude watching these games, and it does suck, badly, but there is no reason to think these misfortunes will continue, next year. There is plenty to be optimistic about going forward. The farm is much improved, and some players are now ML ready. We lose a lot of dead money off the budget, this year, and while some key players need to be extended or replaced in kind, the amount of budget space seems like enough to improve on this team, this winter.

It looked like a very nice pitch.

I'm fine with... 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bello. 4. Mata 5. Rafaela 6. Bleis That might be soxprospects.com's most likely top 6. I also don't think they'll jump Kavadas and Hickey as high as I have them. I do think, like mine, they will not have Downs in the top 30.

Yes. I've never been high on Duran, mostly because of his defense and shifting offensive approach, but I'm surprised how many seem to have totally given up on him. That being said, I'm not pencilling him into any FT role on the 2023 team, but he might make enough adjustments to at least become a platoon LF'er, someday.

I guess player options count, too. cots has him at $10M for '22 on the lux tax line. They don't count the $4M twice.

Nothing to learn. He's forgotten more than all of us know combined.

Hardly.

I'm wondering if this might be the year ending Sox prospect rankings: 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Bello 5. Rafaela 6. Mata 7. Walter 8. Romero 9. Yorke 10. Anthony 11. Wong 12. Lugo 13. Ward 14. Perales 15. Kavadas 16. Hickey 17. E Valdez 18. Jordan 19. Paulino 20. German 21. Winckowski 22. Murphy 23. Seabold 24. Gonzalez 25. Coffey 26. Drohan 27. W Abreu 28. Bonaci 29. Binelas 30. R Hernandez

Better get used to him.

It's about the farm and a bunch of dead money coming off the books. “Next year will be the 22nd season of the John Henry-Tom Werner-Mike Gordon Fenway Sports Group stewardship of this franchise,” Kennedy told Rosenthal of the ownership group. “Since we’ve been here, each and every year we have a goal of playing baseball in October. I do not see that changing. I see us continuing to invest across the entire organization, at the major-league level, throughout our baseball operations. This group is hungry for another World Series championship. … I know we’re in a tough spot right now. But we have a lot of flexibility going into this offseason. I’m really excited to see what we’re going to do with that flexibility and the resources we have.“

Yes. His choices at... 1B: Dalbec, Cordero, Arroyo CF/RF: JBJ or Duran/Ja Davis 2B (When Story & Arroyo were both hurt): Downs, Sanchez, Dalbec SP (When 4 starters were out hurt): Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold, Bello, Davis (See any winning choices, here?)

Some OPS Against Numbers .518 German .545 Z Kelly .559 Bello .576 Winckowski .580 Mata .585 Walter .617 Politi .618 Stock .633 Keller .634 Murphy .636 Gonzalez .641 Encarnacion .657 Uberstine .677 Seabold .682 Drohan

A check on some farm OPS: 300+ ABs 1.043 Kavadas (25 HRs, 51 XBHs and 92 BBs) .902 Rafaela (Rule 5, now in AA) .860 Mayer (Not a bad start) .844 Lugo (Coming on very strong, lately) .831 Stewart (The quiet one.) .830 Jordan (Started slowly.) .817 Wong (Red hot in AAA. Sept call up?) .799 Paulino (Rule 5 in Salem. Protect?) .792 Granberg (only 4 HRs) .783 Northcut (29 Hrs+17 2Bs =46 XBHs & just 36 singles) .780 Bonaci (81 BB and 84 Ks w 23 SBs) .772 Castellanos (Seems like AAAA) .769 R Hern (not bad for a catcher) .761 Koss (AA all year) .731 Fitzy (another AAAA type?) .726 Binelas (24 HRs & 74 RBI) .705 Sogard (at AAA, now) .703 McDonough (20 SB) .677 Hamilton (58 SB & 10 HR) .647 Yorke (Maybe the biggest letdown on the farm?) 200-299 ABs .948 Hickey (61 BB and 65 K & 13 HRs) .891 Casas (missed time w injury) .869 Sikes (.370 OBP) .790 Y Sanchez (Another AAAA profile) .738 Joe Davis (AAAA) .730 Dearden (AAAA) .728 Downs (Another let down) .722 Cottam (not bad for a catcher) 100-199 ABs 1.021 Refsnyder (8 HRS & 23 XBHs in 151 ABs) .987 Cordero (17 XBHs in 117 ABs) .910 Duran (Could not translate to ML level) .874 Mieses (AAA) .896 Bleis (Might be our best hope) Additions to the farm: 1.015 A Almonte (33 yr old w .949 overall in '22) .987 Meidroth (called up to Salem) .961 R Anthony (Drafted) .789 M Romero (Drafted) .704 F Encarnacion (IFA) .675 M Ferguson (.717 overall in '22) .667 E Valdez (.943 OPS & 26 HRs overall in '22) .628 W Abreu (.816 OPS & 16 Hrs overall in '22) .600 F de Leon (IFA) .516 C Rosier (.742 overall in '22) .456 C Coffey (Drafted)

I think it is simpler than we think. Here's my understanding: Option years don't count on the AAV. He got $6M with a $4M buyout, so it's $10M on the 2022 tax line. They don't make adjustments after the fact. $10M counts against 2022, so the $4M buyout is subtracted from the remaining option AAV, so $26M/2 is $13M, but subtract $4M from $26 and it's $22M/2. That's $11M on the tax line for 2023 and 2024, assuming they take the option. I could be wrong.

Most of his choices have been "lose-lose," and when not, it's been "lose-lose-lose" choices.

Probably, a lot of Sox young pitchers might be happy to just make the pen. I'm not sure some can do much more at the AAA level to prove they belong, namely Wink and Seabold who both had very nice OPS Against at that level. Some say Murphy is best suited for the pen. Crawford is a tough call. My guess is Mata, Bello and maybe Walter or Wikleman are our best shots at starters.