moonslav59

Verdugo's misplay on that ball hit to the wall, yesterday, reminded me of Mike Greenwell. I used to think trading Duran makes some sense. Now, I might prefer we trade Dugo. One of these Left Field only players should not be here, next year. Keepers: Everyday Devers (Forevers! PLEASE!) Story SS/2B (kinda have to) Refsnyder (we have no very good OF'ers) Borderline: Duran Pitchers Whitlock (obviously) Houck (despite the vax debacle) Pivetta (as a 4/5 starter) Winckowski (near borderline) Schreiber (could still have just been a flash) Bello (on promise, only) Crawford (near borderline) Sale (because we have to) Borderline: None This list does not include prospects.

Holmes: 5.57 with PIT 1.39 with NYY (a 4.18 disparity) Pivetta: 5.50 with PHI 4.42 with BOS (a 1.08 disparity) Who is fooling who?

As expected, we are seeing a lot of posters coming out of the woodwork, today (and last night.)

I was already leaning towards an all out sell-off, so maybe "radical" was a poor choice of words, but yesterday's game moved the needle more than any other single game has ever done, since maybe that shellacking we took from the Yanks, decades ago.

Any moment, he should revert to what he was. No player has ever improved over his previous norm.

I don't think I have ever used one game to radically change my mind about anything pertaining to baseball, but yesterday tested that limit.

Here are some trades I threw together without a lot of thought, but that give the general idea of what might be possible: Every BTV trade listed here, gives the advantage to the "other team." Bogey, Kike & Duran to PHI for Abel- their top pitching prospect O'Hoppe- one of the best catching prospects in the minors Crouse- RHP'ing prospect Kingery- a salary dump to more than offset Bogey's contract (2 more yrs) Segura- another salary dump to sweeten the return. He can play 2B/SS, next year as a bridge to ____? Eovaldi, JD, Vaz, Strahm & $2M to NYM for DSmith 1B (2 years remaining) Ziegler RHP (decent pitching prospect but nothing special) Wacha, Hill, Sawamura & Diekman to STL for Matz (salary dump w 3 years left) Yepez 1B/DH (promising ML player w 5 yrs left) Love RHP prospect with minimal value Is this a bout the best we can expect? Does this significantly help us in the extended future while giving us some hope to be decent in 2023, assuming we add a bunch of salary?

We can throw cash with Nate and JD and get decent prospects. Some prospects we get will not work out, but stockpile them anyway. We got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so good thing can happen, just do t expect that return on every deal.

He might have expected it, before the year started.

Mercy, mercy, mercy. Every slot in the Jays line-up got on base 3 or more times! This was as sickening as a game could possibly be.

Might be the lowest leverage situation in MLB history.

I always hate starting next year's thread, because it means this year's hopes are over. I guess I can say I still have a sliver of hope for the 2022 season, but I'd be lying. This season started like a cluster, turned real nice for a bit, and then turned sour quickly. I'm not going to blame injuries, since teams like the Yanks have had tons of injuries during years we have beaten them. I'm going to look at where we go from here, and specifically what we can maybe expect in 2023. First, we need to look at trading anybody and everybody not part of our long term plans for the best we can get. I'll start with the easy part- one year controlled players: Bogey: He has a no trade clause, but he'd probably waive it to get a chance for a ring, especially if he feels like he won't be coming back to Boston, next year. I'm not sure just how much we'd get for him, but he's the one with the most value. (Thanks for many good memories.) JD Martinez: I could see us trying to bring him back on a shorter term, lower cost contract, but then I think these DH only guys getting towards an age where serious decline normally is already in progress, why not look for someone with a more promising future. Get what we can, but get something. (Thanks for earning your keep, JD.) Eovaldi: Despite his recent troubles, he may still have or build some value in his next 1-2 starts. Get what we can. I doubt we re-sign him, either. (Thanks for stepping up in 2018. A true hero.) Vaz: Might get a decent return. I doubt we try hard to bring him back, anyway. (We tried to trade for Stalling, last winter.) Kike: His injury may make his trade value near zero, but see what we can get. (Thanks for 2021, Kike!) Wacha: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Too bad you got hurt.) R Hill: He won't be back before the deadline, so see what we can get. (Just didn't work out.) Strahm: Get what we can. (Looked good for 3 months.) Plawecki: Sorry, but he won't be missed. Now, the Options: JBJ: Just say NO! Eat the $8M buyout that counted on this year's tax bill, and don't even think about him earning the $4M more he'd get for 2023, if we give him the option. Paxton: $13M team option or $4M player option. I'd think we'd take this one, but if we decide the priority is 2024 and beyond, maybe not. Sawamura: $3M option or $600K buyout. I'd say no, and move on. I think Cora agrees. Not sure about Bloom. Assuming no 1 year guys come back, and only Paxton's option is given, here is the starting framework for 2023: Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now SP 25.6 Sale 8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3) .72 Winckowski (pre Arb) .72 Crawford (pre Arb) .72 Mata (pre Arb) .72 Bello (pre Arb) minor Seabold (pre Arb) minor Groome (pre Arb) RP 9.4 Barnes 4.7 Whitlock 3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now of this winter) 1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23) 1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4) 1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining) .80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3) .73 Houck (pre Arb) .73 Schreiber (pre Arb) minor Danish (pre Arb) minor P Valdez (pre Arb) minor K Ort (pre Arb) C .72 Wong (pre Arb) .72 R Hernandez (pre Arb) 1B ~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3) .73 Dalbec (pre Arb) 2B 23.3 Story 1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23) 3B ~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3) SS .72 Downs (pre Arb) LF ~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3) CF .72 Duran (pre Arb) RF ~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3) That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions. To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M. To get to $12M over, like we are, now, we might spend about $104M. I'd say it's safe to say we might spend $90-100M over the winter, assuming we aren't looking at 2024 as the turn-around season. We have some Rule 5 Players that almost certainly be added to the 40: Casas Rafaela German Walter Murphy W Gonzalez Paulino Possibles: Bonaci Cottam Feltman Jimenez Koss, Northcut, Granberg, TWard, Santos, Song Adding Free Agents (assuming 7 Rule 5 additions), we have 2 open slots. Any more would mean trading or DFA'ing: Diekman, Ort, Valdez, Arroyo, DHern, Brasier and maybe Groome. Let's assume 6 additions. That leaves this for the 40: SP: _____, Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Winckowski Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold, Groome, Walter, Murphy, Gonzalez RP: Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, _____, Taylor, Davis, Brasier German, Danish, DHern C: _____, Wong R Hernandez 1B: _____, Dalbec/Cordero Casas, Cordero/Dalbec 2B: Story Paulino 3B: Devers SS: ______, Downs LF: Verdugo, Duran CF: ______ Rafaela RF: Refsnyder

Just like that- negative run differential on the season.

No Refsnyder love?

Every year I get older, I think I'm catching up. Wrong, again.

Does he still have the same trade deadline value?

You missed the Whitlock point, LOL!

I thought It would take 10-11 games to decide if we’ll be sellers. It looks like I’m wrong about another thing, this year.

I have several ahead if Groome. I think he may be traded.

Good summary. I feel a little better, but I’m still not all gah-gah, yet.

Vaz? Even if you like what he’s given the last 2-3 years, should t we expect decline, soon?

Take a look at Vaz’s 1BERA!!! Lol

That’s how I feel. Assuming the budget stays the same or grows, this winter will be his make or break moment. No excuses, despite still having some deadwood. All our GMs had some.

If both were free agents, I'd take Soto at $450M/14 vs Judge at $225M/7.

I hope you have Fun, Fun, Fun.