moonslav59

I understand why losing Bogey casts a big shadow over this winter, but with just normal health (not even counting Sale and Paxton), we'll be getting an expected boost. Casas and Bello look very promising. They barely played in the bigs, last year. The step up we needed may not have to all be realized by this winter's additions. Yes, we lost some key players- 6 or 7 of them, some of which did not do as well in 2022 as before, yet we think of them as how they were in 2018- like Nate & JD. We also lost some real bad performers from 2022: JBJ, Cordero, Diekman, Davis, Sawamura and others, and we should see less underperforming from Dalbec, Duran, Brasier and others. There are many things to be optimistic about, but we are choosing to focus on losing Bogey and back to Betts and even Lester. Let's see how the rest of the winter additions play out. There may be a big trade or two in the works that might turn fans around in an instant.

Or how credible he is as a 2/3 SP'er, which is the least we need. Maybe sign him and Fulmer and push Houck to the rotation.

No excuses needed for a season yet to be played out.

No doubt! We lost JBJ, Plawecki, Cordero, Davis, Diekman, Danish Sawamura and should see less to way less playing time from Dalbec, Duran and Brasier. Kike and Story played 187 games, combined: we should see 300, next year. That 113 games is more than DJ will play or maybe Stanton, or...

Do we have more than 1/30th of the top 30 contracts? The top 60? The top 90, 120, 150...? I'm pretty sure we'll see endless yeses.

Index those contracts to inflation and Manny's and Price's move up the list. What you might also find is that the Sox have a ton of contracts in the 50-150 range, and if you count extensions, maybe even better. AGon, Porcello, Bogey and Sale were extensions. We seem to have a lot in the $65-145 range. Also, look at that list of highest signings and give me a percent on how many were clearly successful, okay to decent and bad to horrific. Off the top pf my head, not counting pending grades, I'm guessing 25%- 40%- 35%.

Way, way, way less than the Sox have done.

"Start spending soon?" Since the Story signing, he's been spending as much or more than almost any other 9 month period in Sox history- just not on the players many want and not bunched up on just a handful of splashy names that usually fade quickly and often right away. I'm not saying Betts and Bogey will turn into Crawford and Sale, but paying big studs has not worked for us and most teams. Maybe, just maybe, the better strategy is to spread the wealth and risk. That being said, I had hoped this winter would be more about quality than quantity, and so far we've kinda spread it out, but we did get a top 3 closer on the market, a top 3-5 set up man on the market and a top 4-5 OF'er on the market. We still have $40M and some trade capital. I'm not seeing us signing Correa, Swanson or Rodon/Bassitt, so there are not many "splashy" names left, after them, but if we sign Nate or Syndergaard, Conforto or Gallo and Andrus or Segura, I think we improved the overall team significantly and kept us set up to get even better as Casas and Bello mature and Mayer, Rafaela, Mata, Walter and others start infusing youth into the team at a very low cost.

Yup, and it takes time and patience to get to where HOU is now, plus they tanked for a few years to get a big boost to their farm, which has been paying dividends for a long time.

A good thing to hear from you. Sounds a lot like pre-2021. Don't expect the Sox to have so many injuries, next year, just because your Yanks are built for the IL. Yes, Paxton and Sale are expected, but not like the 6-9 players on the Yanks. 2021>2022 C =/ 1B >> 2B > SS 3B = LF >> CF > RF > DH =/ SP RP>>

Is having 8 players making $20M per "opening his checkbook" as much as another GM who has 3 players at $33M per? If you had to pick the better strategy, which would you think is better? (I know it goes beyond this, as guys like Cohen may end doing both, but JH has spent and is still spending top 5-7 in MLB. Now, he has to be top 3-4, or he gets roasted?

Good point. He'll just make less profit- maybe, than had he not signed 1 or 2 of these guys.

Agreed, Even if they knew all along, they'd never pay Bogey the current market rate, as it changed and sky-rocketed, recently, they could and should have handled it better. They keep thinking they are trying to make the fans happy by pretending to really want him, but they keep getting caught with their pants down and don't learn anything going forward. I think the Betts situation was different. They extended Sale and Bogey and still had JD and Nate on the books, when JH decided before 2019, that a reset was in the books. They sill offered him a hefty contract, and traded him when they knew he would not take it and was headed to free agency. The Lester fiasco was another sham gone bad. They never wanted to pay him but pretended they did to try and fool the fans. Their last offer was not genuine, IMO. The certainly have some serious issues, but they are following a pretty consistent pattern of never going over the tax line 3 years in a row, and resetting, often- sometimes staying under for 2-3 years at a time. They are spending more, this winter in AAV than they have in a long time. They may even go over the line, this year, and reset, next. JH will keep spending. I think he likes to spend big in cycles and usually right before he thinks we are close to having the foundation and supporting cast to go large and long for a player or two. Maybe he's decided not to go longer than 6 years or higher than $140 or $160M. I'm not so sure that's a bad strategy. Having 4 players at $150M may be better than 2 at $300M.

Story, Wacha and Hill, combined got paid what Bogey might have taken had we offered it to him, last winter. The argument should be over who we spend it on not the fact that we have gone cheap.

Why would you think we do not pay premiere money for premiere players? Or, do you mean only the obscene money given out, lately? The Sale and Bogey extensions The Story signing The Yoshida signing No, these aren't like the Price signing, or these absurd recent signings, but we will likely spend $90M on upgrading from 2021, despite a downgrade at SS and maybe 1-2 other slots. I think we keep spending but not like Price. When you look at the very biggest contracts, one can understand the reasoning behind that choice- including the Price signing, as well as Crawford, HRam, Pablo and the recent Sale extension. The other big contract over the last dozen years was AGon. If you look beyond the bitterness of losing Lester and the recency of losing Betts and Bogey, one could say mega signings have been a bad thing for the Sox,. For every non extensions that was or currently looks like a mistake, there are tow mistake big signings or extensions. No Lester extension: Crawford signing and Agon extension. No Betts extension: HRam/Pablo signings No Bogey extension:Price signing and Sale extension Then, there are the plentiful examples of the team letting stars or key players go via free agency or trade just in time. (Agreed, not so many recently) Maybe we should not have kept Pearce but should have kept Perez. Yes, those are minor, but there have been goods and bads over the last few decades, but the ones that hurt the most have been more recent, although Lester was pretty long time agon, and we did make many big signings & entensions afterwards. I'm not sure why some think we will never spend big again. We just dropped $105M on Yoshiad, $32M on Jansen and $18M on Martin. (We also extended Kike at $10M/1.) Look, I had hoped we'd start spending more money on fewer players, this winter, but since March 2022 with the Story signing, we've spent a lot. We may still drop $40M before this winter is over. Last 9 months: $140M Story $105M Yoshida $32M Jansen $18M Martin $10M Kike

Go back and find the predicted win total thread.

I don't regret thinking we had hopes, this year. I never foresaw the decline by so many established players and a few approaching prime. In hindsight, maybe hoping Dalbec, Verdugo, and a few others improved was wishful thinking. I still think the 2022 team looked better, on paper, than the 2021 team, but the game is not played on paper, and the declines and injuries were just too much to overcome.

Maybe in 8 years... I'm thinking 1-2 more years, but I thought that before this winter began.

Top Free Agents Remaining (Ranked by MLBTR) 2. Correa SS 5. Swanson SS 6. Rodon SP 13. Bassitt SP 15. Benintendi LF 17. Manaea SP 21. Syndergaard SP 23. Eovaldi SP 24. T Rogers RP 25. JD Martinez DH 26. Vazquez C 33. Profar LF/DH 37. Drury Utility/DH 38. Stripling SP 39. Chafin RP 40. Segura 2B 41. Wacha SP 43. Brantley DH/LF 44. Conforto RF 46. Ottavinio RP 47, J Turner DH/3B (1B?) 48. Kluber SP 50. Rucinski P Fulmer Andrus Gallo S Lugo Cueto Mancini Myers RED= maybe a future Sox signee? BLUE= Sox need but not likely to be signed by us

...another LF'er. 2020: Verdugo, Beni, Chavis, Munoz, Peraza, Lin, JD, Pillar, Puello 2021: Verdugo, JD, Cordero, Schwarber, Marwin, Santana, Munoz, Duran 2022: Verdugo, Pham, Cordero, Refsnyder, Almonte, Davis Maybe 2023 will be the year we see 103 or more games from one left fielder.

He seems like the perfect Bloom signing. Perez I Perez II and Richards Paxton and Wacha

...and before 2021 and 2013.

Not surprising, to me.

What excuse can you give for so many vets declining all at once? Age for some, but others were moving towards prime. Injuries can be used as an excuse, and we did have more than any GM can really plan for, especially one on a limited budget, but they did make a big difference. The worst part was that almost all our starters got hurt at the same time while Sale and Paxton never came to the rescue (expected by most.) Story and Arroyo- hurt at the same time. Kike hurt while JBJ sucked. Devers playing hurt at a time we need to rally the troops for a final push. The major fall off in RBIs by Bogey and JD has no reasonable excuse I can think of. That was a major factor, along with blown saves that led to the swing in losses from 2021. RBI totals Bogey + JD: 135 '22 178 '21 100 '20 in just 60 games (projects to 260+ in 162 games) 222 '19 233 '18 Blown Saves (Save %) 39 (57%) '22 49 (64%) '21 14 (52%) '20 short season 33 (52%)'19 46 (70%) '18 The best 2 percents were 2018 and 2021. No surprise. .

I'm not trying to bash players on the way out or already out, but when we say names like Bogey, JD and Nate, we think of the 2018 or 2021 Nate, the 2018 and 2019 JD and the Bogey who hit 25+ Hrs with 100+ RBIs. If you are going to take the win total from 2022 to work from and who we need to replace, you need to look at the 2022 Nate, Bogey and JD. True, replacing the 2022 Wacha, Hill and Strahm will not be easy. I think we replace Strahm and then some with the pen, and $40M does not seem like enough to replace others, but IMO, it does not look as bleak as you see it. Also, we are replacing JBJ, Cordero, Diekman, Robles, Davis, Sawamura and hopefully less games from Dalbec, Plawecki, Duran and Brasier. This what we are replacing from 2022 and what we might be replacing them with: The Good: Nate (109 IP/4th most and 3.87 ERA and 20 GS) We don't need to replace 33 GS'd, but this will not be easy. Replace his 20 GS with 20 more from Whitlock. Wacha (127 IP/2nd most and 3.32 ERA in 23 GS) Very difficult to replace, and as much as I like Bello, he will most likely not match those numbers, but he should be all that bad at coming somewhat close. Hill (124 IP/3rd most and 4.27 ERA in 26 GS) It's hard to envision 26 starts by Sale, but that might be our only hope replacing Hill and making up for the downgrade from Wacha to Bello. Another hope would be to add a solid SP'er better than Hill was in '22 Strahm (45 IP/14th most and 3.83 ERA) replaced by Jansen- big plus Bogey (631 PAs/2nd on team and .833 OPS- his OPS+ did not dip but his RBIs took a massive dive) You can't replace Bogey, in kind, without signing someone like Correa, and that ain't happening. Let's agree that we take a major hit at SS with someone like Andrus or Segura at 2B and Story at SS. JD (596 PAs/4th in PAs with a .790 OPS- his OPS+ was his worst since 2013, not counting 2020 and his RBI total was less than half of 2018's total.) Call me crazy, but I think we can come close to replacing him with a platoon that can match .790 without any additions, and I won't use Yoshida at this slot to plug in- see JBJ/Duran & Co. Vaz (318/8th most and .759 OPS) + Plawecki (175 PAs/15th and .574 OPS) Call me crazy, again, but I think the improved defense fro McGuire and maybe Wong can come close to making up for the offense lost by Vas, although Plawecki's OPS brought or catching OPS down quite a bit. Maybe we add a catcher, but I don't think it is a high priority. I accept the idea we a re stepping down, slightly, at catcher. That's 7 decent to very good 2022 players we are replacing (I'm counting Vaz and Plawecki as one player, if you don't mind.) Now, look at the okay of bad we are replacing, along with the expected less and more PAs from many players still in our system: Pitching: IP 62 (9th) Brasier 5.78 ERA (DFA or reduce his IP) replace with Joely. 54 (12th) Davis 5.47 ERA replace his and some of Brasier's IP with Martin- big plus 51 (13th) Sawamura 3.73 ERA replace with Martin 40 (15th) Danish 5.13 ERA replace with more IP by Crawford or Wink 38 (17th) Diekman 4.23 ERA replace with Kelly 28 (18th) Ort and 25 (19th) Robles replace with German and Mata Others like Seabold, Bazrdo, Valdez and Familia (about 50 IP) repalced by more IP from Crawfor and Wink or Mata/Walter/Murphy Does this make up for the differentials above on pitching? Everyday Players: (I linked Plawecki with Vaz in the "good section.") PAs 402 (5th) Kike .629 OPS with something closer to the 2021 Kike and maybe 550 PAs 396 (6th) Story .737 OPS with something like the pre-2022 Story and 550+ PAs 353 (7th) Dalbec .652 OPS with Casas- should be a major gain on O and D. Add most of Dalbec's PAs and some of Cordero's to the 95 Casas had and you get to 550+ PAs 290 (10th) JBJ .578 OPS with Yoshida - a major gain that could wipe out the O loss at SS 275 (11th) Cordero .697 OPS with Casas and Yoshida- major gain on O and D 235 (12th) Pham .672 OPS with, yes Yoshida again. It's 525 PAs between JBJ and Pham.- Add some from Cordero and you get to 600. 223 (13th) Duran at .645 can be made up with more PAs from Refsnyder- another plus. It remains to be seen who has their IP and PAs slashed or increased, but we can assume most. It doesn't look as dire as some think it is, to me, and we still have some moves to go.