moonslav59

Careful. Only hindsight evaluations count.

I don't expect every Sox fan to be optimistic about the future. I, for one, expect us to keep improving from the low point of 2020. I like the way our farm is deeper and stronger. I like the way our 40 man roster is deeper and stronger, and looks to be even better when we add 5-6 quality rule 5 players and fill 4-6 slots with about $90M to spend, this winter. Will we win it all in 2023 or 2024? Who knows, but I like the direction we are headed towards. Do I like the results of 2022 after 108 games? Hell NO! I did after 75 and 80 games, but that seems like eons ago. Maybe it comes down to what each of us expected after 2020. I'm going to come out and say it: I get the feeling those who were most in denial about the whole impending "cliff" talk are the one's most angry and vindictive about that becoming a reality. Henry saw it coming and cut the budget to reflect that reality. he hired a rebuilding style GM from an organization known for doing the best with limited budgets, talent evaluation and building up the farm and developmental systems. There is all kinds of evidence that points to a planned lull in competitiveness, despite the rhetoric top brass has spewed to try and keep fans thinking we will continue being an exciting team to watch, during the rebuild. We can deny this is a rebuild all we want. We can cry and cry about the here and now hurting so badly, and scramble to heep blame on the easiest targets all we want, but maybe, just maybe some of our expectations were way too unrealistic. The way MLB has structured how teams can add young talent to their system has chanced over the last few years. It's much harder for rich teams to just buy IFAs or over slotted draft picks. It's not easy to just turn a bottom 5 farm system into a top 5 or 10 system. Even 4-5 years might be an unrealistic expectation. It's easy to just point to a $230M budget and say, any team with that budget should be winning and blame the Gm and manager, if they are not. It's not an umeritted position to hold. It's not UNrealistic. It makes sense. I get it, but there is more to it than just seeing $230M as the only thing that counts. To me, the posters that attempt to have a balanced view of things are being viewed as some sort of extreme Cora/Bloom loyalist, because they are not drinking the same angry, blame infested Kool-Aid drunk by the cliff deniers. Okay, now I'm going to be called out for getting too personal, and I deserve it, but I'm tired of being accused of being something I am not, so I'm dishing out the same medicine I'm seeing thrown at some of us. It doesn't feel good, does it? (Don't bother answering. It's a rhetorical question, and most of those who will respond are on ignore, anyway.) I don't see any poster as a Bloom loyalist. Some certainly defend him more than others, but I don't see posters like Kimmi and Max as being extreme. I do see a select few of the Bloom bashers as being unrelenting and mean spirited, and way more extreme than Kimmi, Max, Bell, notin and myself. (I may be missing a few.) Go ahead, have at it, but it is what it is. We are paying the price for 2018, and you don't want to face it. When we win again, and I truly think we will, maybe you'll ease up, although I'm not sure some of you even know how to, even when things are going well.

.725 might be all we need to get back to the top, if we can spend more on other open slots, this winter. Getting a free 1Bman may be a bigger help that we realize. If McGuire can handle the staff better, and get his OPS up to .650 of .700 (Vaz's career OPS or .694 from '21-'22), maybe the money saves at catcher can further help improve other positions without having a setback at catcher.

Can you explain what "so loyal to Bloom" means? Is being critical of several of his moves while providing context and nuance being loyal or overly loyal? Is pointing out that many of the moves he's most being criticized for are not complete, yet, as the prospects are still prospects being overly loyal for your tastes? Is looking beyond how good we look, at this very moment in time, being overly loyal or maybe just having a different viewpoint? Had one judged Bloom when we had the 3rd best record in the AL, a couple months ago, we'd have a totally different judgement. Is recognizing making judgments based on a single point in time a sign of extreme and unworthy loyalty or just a different way of viewing situations? I'm not sure your claim that our positions are based on "loyalty" are all that accurate. I wasn't "loyal" to DD, but I'm glad as hell Henry hired him. He did a fantastic job bringing us 3 first place finishes and the best season in Sox history. Nothing anyone says will take anything away from that, but it did come at an expected cost. I was happy paying that cost and that cost was to sacrifice some of our future success to go all in. I have no regrets, but I also feel like the next GM deserves some slack and time to build the team, farm and system back up to a highly competitive level. The 2021 season got me hopeful it could be done faster than I expected it to take back in 2020, but it doesn't change the fact we had a long way to go to get b ack to or near the top. If that makes me an extreme loyalist or apologist in the eyes of some or even many, so be it. I think I'm just being a realist. (Not that those who disagree with me are not realistic, as well.)

You don't have to convince me. I have no idea how good McGuire is with maximizing pitching staff value, but I'm hoping he's better than Vaz was.

How many "I Love Bauer" tattoos have been removed by drunken Dodger fans. That contract, alone, equals all the bad Bloom contracts combined, unless you count Story's deal as bad after 1/8th of the term.

And 5 years from 2013 to 2018. I'm not saying we will win in 2023, another 5 years, but I do think we can get to the point of being a top ring competitor by 2023 or 2024, if we spend near or just over the tax line.

As much as I dumped on Vaz's handling the staff, I never viewed him as a net negative, but I do think it's interesting to see him being viewed as the back-up catcher in Houston. (that may change over time, I might add.)

Total up the Dodgers foolish spending over the last 3 years and compare to Bloom's, then get back to me. Sure, they've spent a lot of contracts that have worked out well, because they can, but I'm sticking with my drunken sailor analogy. Drunken sailors don't only spend on bad things. Sometimes, they spend on top shelf liquors.

You crack me up.

I was joking, and yes, I am an English teacher.

We are going to make a serious run at 5 rings under Henry. This is NOT the first time he's gone cheap on new spending, sometimes for 2-3 year stretches. Nobody is hoping we become the Rays. We are hoping we can take the Rays' approach and add spending to the equation and become consistent winners but with actual rings to show for it. The Dodger and Astros have taken that approach. The Dodgers have spent like drunken sailors, but the Astros have let some big stars walk and have made the ALCS 4 straight seasons. It can be done, but not overnight. The Astros were as bad as our 2020 team, long ago. They did not rebuild overnight.

To me, it was obvious. They knew they were not going to re-sign him in 2 months. (Even if they like him, he's all but said, he'd come back as a FA.) We got two rising prospects, and then we traded garbage (Diekman) for a decent defensive catcher that may hold his own when compared to the Astros now back-up catcher.

We should have never let John Denver go, although his personal life was a bit concerning.

Plus, name one "supporter" who blindly supports every move Bloom has made. I think some bashers confuse trying to justify why Bloom made a particular move or that the financial restrictions add context to why Bloom chose a $5M guy over a $15M guy means we think the move was a success. It doesn't. I rarely see the bashers trying to add any context. I rarely see them mention Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Schwarber, Iggy, Wacha, Starhm and a few others who have already earner their pay and then some along with the failed moves. It seems to be all one-way, and when we try to soften the bashing, we are accused of being total Bloom apologists. I'm still asking for one name of a poster who has supported all or even 90% of Bloom's moves, and remember, offering context to what a bad move was made is not supporting the move,

They aren't but after 2019, they cut salary like KC and MIA. After 2020, Bloom was handed $40M, which seems like much more than KC and MIA but he had 10-14 slots to fill. That's not what NYY and LAD ever face.

I don't see a single poster giving Bloom a free pass on everything or even almost everything. I do see posters trying to give context to why certain moves were made and why the moves might have been understandable, at the time they were made, just like I try to defend DD's Sale extension at the time it was made but how it sucks, now. I also see a fw ardent Bloom bashers who will continue to bash him no matter what happens and no matter what anyone else says. I am sure they have their reasons. Every poster who attempts to soften the blows thrown at Bloom are fair game to be ripped and tossed under the bus. But not the team leaders and clubhouse wonders. They never mention any of his many good moves, and make it sound like everything he touches turns to doo-doo. Many assume he is choosing to not spend big and wants to run the team like the Rays. Personally, I think 2021 raised fans expectations beyond reason. The 2022 team and farm are vastly better than the one handed Bloom. The DD budget is going to be greatly reduced, this winter, and Bloom should be judged on the teams progression from the end of 2019 to now and the end of this winter's moves and decisions. I'm fine with people holding Bloom accountable. I don't think it's a black and white as many seem to think it is, but that's the way of the world, these days. Little nuances and context is present. Bloom should be held accountable for all his choices. He's made plenty of bad choices. Some look god-awful right now, but some of those still have time to be righted or at least partially improved upon. The Beni trade is already looking better than it did at first. His team control is over after this season. We replaced his salary with renfroe, last year, and that alone just about evened up the score. Now Wink is tilting the trade to a net plus, and we still have more to see from him and the other 3 far-away prospects. The Pivetta-Seabold deal was golden. The JBJ trade looks like a total bust, and it hurt the finances, but Binelas and hamilton do still show faint promise, so maybe we need another year or two to know just how bad the deal was. Many of Bloom's mid-level signings ranged from meh to bad, but what is really expected of most $3M to $10M signings? 50-50 success rate? Paxton Richards (Barnes extension) (Ottavino/German salary dump trade) (JBJ-Renfroe trade) Kike M Perez I and M Perez II Wacha Hill Diekman Strahm Renfroe Pillar Marwin Peraza Sawamura Moreland Andriese One can easily argue these deals show less than 50% success, so bash away on these, but don't forget Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and a few other under-the-radar moves than probably balance those out or maybe even go plus side. Are we better off now than the end of 2019 and start of 2020? I'd say clearly much better on the 26, the 40, the farm and the finances. Call me a "prolific" poster who supports Bloom, but I am not one who never criticizes Bloom. It seems to me, there are more Bloom bashers who rarely mention the good than Bloom supporters who rarely mention the bad. That's my perception, anyway.

Let's see what he actually makes. I'm not sure overpaying him will reset the whole top tier market. Did Seager's massive overpay really create a big boost to other top players' contracts?

Amazingly, he still has an option left- not sure if he will in 2023, though. I have several players on my DFA/trade list ahead of him, but if he goes, I won't be even mildly surprised.

I like it, and we still have plenty of cash to sign a big plus 2B/SS and SP'er.

It's very rare to make meaningful trades in late May/early June, but usually 1Bmen are plentiful, and I do think we could have gotten a serviceable 1B after the Casas injury on May 24th. I think Bloom and Cora were hoping Dalbec would repeat his 2021 second half hot streak, but it never happened. (BTW, he is at .729 since July 8th.) I also think Henry was against adding more salary, so the types of 1Bmen available after May 24th, might have been mostly salary dump kind of 1Bmen.

I defended it at the time, saying he got the money he deserved for 4 healthy years on a 5 year deal. The deal sucks, now. I know many felt it sucked at the time, and they were right. I and others were wrong. I don't see anybody saying it was a good deal, in hindsight. I see Bloom being bashed for trying to construct a roster based on serious financial obstacles, such as Sale's deal, Price's commitments, and underformancs by other highly paid players like Nate, JD and to some extent Bogey's lack of run production. Sure, Story, Kike, Diekman and recently Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others have underperformed, too, but at much lower cost and much better WAR per dollar spent ratios than the DD players.

Depending on how you value talent, Bloom started out with a 40 man roster having 18-22 serious holes in it, along with a farm that appeared to be very weak, especially on the ML ready area. He was then asked to make a serious cut in the budget while trying to plug 22 holes and build the farm up at the same time. His strategy was forced upon him: try and acquire as many potential gems in the rough as possible, or better known as throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. Just because that strategy is, in some ways, "the Rays way," doesn't mean Bloom chose that strategy. He was likely hired because he had experience with that strategy. All-in-all, he did a pretty good job building up the 40 and farm during and after the 2020 season, but again, he was given a highly restricted winter spending budget before the 2021 season. Luckily, the farm he was handed turned out to be slightly better than expected and guys like Houck and Dalbec contributed to the 2021 success. His Pivetts and Whitlock additions, along with FAs like Kike also were keys to the 2021 season. Now, the next winter arrives, and it seems like Bloom's hands are tied, again, but suddenly the Story signing comes out of nowhere. Call it a failure or near failure, if you must, but it was his first and only major FA signing. With the success rate of major signings being about 50%, league wide, I'm not sure Bloom deserves to be bashed for not being at 100% success in major signings (1 for 1). He still had a restricted budget. Yes, he could have not signed Story and spread the wealth around more, but then he'd have been accused of using small market strategies on a big market team. It's still an area worthy of criticism, as was the JBJ deal that further restricted spending elsewhere. No doubt, Bloom made some poor choices, but to me, that should have been expected, when you have to try and make many "under-the-radar" type deals to fill in so many weak slots on your roster. I can't expect a GM to be even 50 or 67% successful when being forced to use a low cost strategy. Whitlock, Kike, Pivetta, Arroyo and others worked out pretty well in 2021. Many did not, led by Marwin and Andriese. Richards, Perez and Ottavino were rather meh. Wacha, Strahm, Hill probably earned their 2022 salaries but could be called meh. Schreiber and refsnyder exceeded expectations, but are the types of guys Bloom had to count on to fill out the roster, due to finances. Diekman and Barnes were failures. IMO, the jury is still out on Story, but so far his 2022 contribution is clearly lacking. I do think he has a plan. The plan is not based on hoping for miracles. It is based on a consistent improvement of the 40 man roster and farm. I think the plan also involved not adding prime players on long deals, until we felt like we were close enough to being highly competitive to make it worth it. I know this part hurts fan excitement and viewership, but the idea was to keep us relevant enough, until the time came to "pounce" and maybe go all in or in enough with sacrificing the future like the DD plan did. Of course, this is just my opinion and perception of what Bloom's plan is, and I could be totally wrong or partially wrong, but it looks that way to me. IMO, the big question is about 2023. Do Henry and Bloom think this is the time to "pounce" or partially pounce? It's Devers' last year of control, so it's hard to imagine our chances being better in 2024 without Devers or by paying him $30M a year and having less to spend elsewhere. I'm hoping they view this coming winter as the time to go large, without sacrificing too much or the farm. I think that's Henry and Bloom's plan, but maybe 2024 and beyond is a higher priority. The thing is, if 2024>> is the major plan, signing a couple studs, this winter can still be a big part of that timeframe, too.

To me, if we choose to spend the $90M on 4 slots and not the 5 I listed- removing a catcher from the list, we might still have a solid team. McGuire, Wong and RHern handle the staff and catching duties, and now we have $90M+ to spend on 4 slots. That's $22.5M a slot as opposed to $$18M per slot ($90M/5) or $15M ($90M/6). Maybe we trade for one of those 4 slots and now have close to $90M to fill 3 slots. Now we are talking about being able to make a serious run at 2 or 3 of these guys (not likely): Judge Trea Turner/Correa/Swanson/Bogey Rodon/Verlander (short term)/Kershaw (short term)/de Grom Haniger/Nimmo Contreras We might go with 1-2 large and long plus 2-3 next tier guys like... Nate/Syndergaard/Bassitt/Morton (short term) Abreu (shorter term) Muncy/KWong TAnderson Kike/Brantley Cruz/JD Diaz/Chapman/Jansen

This is where we'll see who the true Bloom is, unless Henry puts some serious brakes on spending, which I do NOT think is likely, after fans' outrage over 2022. He should have about $90M to spend, at minimum and 5-7 or 8 key slots to fill. If that number is 6, that would be about $15M per player x 6. We ight see $25M x 2 and $6.5M x 4, but either way, there should and better be some serious talent coming into the fold. While the roster framework I posted still has some salary deadwood and too many "bubble" type players, I think our foundation is solid enough to be able to put together a solid team in 2023 with an even better outlook for 2024 and beyond due to some exciting Rule 5 additions and lower level prospects moving up the line towards maturity. Of the 10 listed bubble players, there might only be room for 2, so maybe we can deal some of them for prospects or maybe some sort of 3 for 1 deal. We may also see us make a move like Ottavino's, but hopefully, the ML component of that type of deal does better than he did. (German is looking like a keeper!) Maybe we do a salary swap like Barnes and Sawamura for Myers. There should be enough opportunities for Bloom to "do his thing," and to me 2023 will be the flashpoint for Bloom and maybe even Cora, depending on pre-season expectations based on roster strength.