moonslav59

soxprospects.com update ETAs on our best prospects: 2022 2023 2. Casas 3. Bello (here in '22) 6. Mata (mid) 7. Walter (late) 9. Winckowski (here in '22) 11. Murphy (mid) 12. Seabold (her in '22 on IL) 16. E Valdez (mid) 17. Wong 23. Downs (here in '22) 30. German (mid) 2024 1. Mayer 4. Yorke 8. Rafaela (I hope by 2023) 15. Ward 21. Lugo 26. Abreu 27. Binelas 28 Jimenez 2025 13. Paulino 18. Jordan 19. Gonzalez 22. Hickey 25. Kavadas 27. Bonaci 2026 5. Bleis 10. Romero 20. Coffey

He hides behind his claim to not get personal by not naming names, but his whole "many posters..." spiel is getting old and tiring. Not one poster thinks having the best farm trumps winning rings. Some feel having a top 5-10 farm greatly improves the chances of winning rings or multiple rings, but nobody has come close to claiming a strong farm matters more than the big team winning. He cannot name one, because there is not one- let alone "many."

There is some reason to be optimistic about Crawford and Winckowski. Crawford: 2.90 since April 19th (50 IP, not counting today) 2.38 since June 19 (34 IP, not counting today) Winckowski: 4.21 after his first start (47 IP) 2.70 his last 2 starts (10 IP) Season: Crawford: 3.86 (111 ERA+) 3.74 FIP 1.23 WHIP .680 OPS Against in 224 PAs Against Winckowski: 4.68 ERA (91 ERA+) 5.11 FIP 1.50 WHIP .832 OPSA (220 PAs Against)

It wasn't really the farm hands (except Dalbec and Duran) that made most of the blunders on D and basepaths. It was the vets. Although Whitlock was not developed by our farm, he was a prospect when promoted. Houck has done well. Dalbec did okay, to start. Wong has done okay at back-up catcher. Wink and Crawford have done well. Danish, Okay. JDavis has been ok in limited playing time

I forgot Kike as a FA to be (making that number 8.) We also have Paxton on the 60 day, so technically we have 41 on the 40 man, minus 8 =32. Add 5-6 Rule 5's and we have 2-3 open slots before DFA'ing or trading is needed.

Is Bogey the best MLB SS? Could replacing him with TTurner, Correo or even Story be devastating to our chances at winning a ring? Could he not sign Bogey but go with Swanson and Judge and still have a winner? This whole B ogey or bust argument is beyond lame. Now, if you argue Betts or Devers, you'll have a better point, IMO, but even they can be replaced, in kind, assuming Henry continues spending as is.

Name one.

I fixed a couple things: For 2023, I see the following position players: C - left handed hitting McGuire Right handed hitting wong 1b - left handed hitting casas Right handed hitting dalbec Left handed hitting hosmer 2b - right handed hitting story Right handed hitting arroyo SS - right handed hitting story Right handed hitting arroyo 3b - right handed hitting devers Right handed hitting dalbec Utility - tbd (Arroyo/Downs) Lf - left handed hitting verdugo Cf - left handed hitting Duran Rf - tbd 4th outfielder - tbd (Refsnyder) Dh - left handed hitting Hosmer Right handed hitting dalbec Plenty of opportunity for Hang’em Chaim to upgrade these positions.

We also got 2 minor leaguers with Hosmer, both may be better than Groome. Hosmer is not a rental, as you indicated. I'm not arguing that B loom is looking to trade Casas, but I have more faith in Hosmer at 1B/DH for the next 2 years than Downs/Arroyo at SS/2B, McGuire/Wong/RHern at C or Refsnyder/Dugo/Duran in CF/RF. Who knows who B loom has more faith in. He may think all deserve a chance and not seek to fill any slots via trade, or he may fill all slots via free agency.

If we traded Casas, we would be getting something valuable back, right? I'm not saying it will or should happen, especially since 1B looks like one of our weakest positions, but you can't trade crap to get top players. Which slot looks like the highest need area without Casas? SP: Wink, Crawford, Bello? RP: After Houck, Whitlock & Schreiber? 2B/SS: Downs. Arroyo, Sanchez? CF/RF: Refsnyder, Duran, Dugo? C: McGuire, Wong, RHern? 1B: Hosmer, Dalbec? There is no clear cut answer. I could see us trading a prospect or two (Casas, Duran or Yorke) for a player with multiple years of team control that fills one of these slots, other than 1B. We aren't getting old b y trading Dalbec, Downs and Wong.

He may again, and he may be #1 on Bloom's DFA list, as we speak. He's on my list, too- just not #1 oe 2, due to our extreme lack of OF depth, and his hard to let go impression of having so many "tools." Having 7 players losing team control, and a few options pending, this winter and maybe only 5-6 Rule 5 additions, makes DFA'ing anyone a low priority, right now and into the start of this winter. As we start adding FAs or trade additions, we will start thinking about DFAs, but a lot might depend on who we add and what positions they play. As much as I have lauded Bloom's building up of the 40 man roster depth, we still have quite a few players I would not mind us trading or DFA'ing. Here are my lists, as of now: 7 FAs: Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Strahm & Plawecki Options (trade?): Paxton, Sawamura, Pham Trade: Barnes (better to hope for rebound or salary dump swap?) Dalbec (minor league depth?) Danish (I think a keeper) Maybe Trade: Duran or Dugo, Wong or RHern, Arroyo or Downs DFA/Trade: 1. Sanchez 2. DHern 3. Ort 4. JDavis or Cordero

Beyond drafting and IFA signings, Bloom had added over two dozen prospects. Some have already been let go or look so unpromising they don't even crack the top 60 list on soxprospects.com, but it is clear to me, building up the farm was at least the top priority until now, and perhaps still is. (I don't expect Bloom to broadcast, if the top priority has changed.) Here are some prospects added by Bloom over the years: 9 Winckowski (w Cordero & others for Beni) 12 Seabold (w Pivetta for Workman & Hembree) 14 E Valdez (Vaz) 17 Wong (w Verdugo & Downs for Betts and Price) 23 Downs (w Verdugo & Wong for Betts and Price) 26 Abreu (Vaz) 28 Binelas (w JBJ for Renfroe) 30 German (w Ottavino as salary dump trade by Yanks) 39 R Hernandez (Mazza & Springs) 40 Koss (Y Aybar) 50 Hamilton (w JBJ & Binelas for Renfroe) 59 Wallace (Moreland) NR Abraham Almonte (for cash from MIL) Luis de la Rosa (w Wink, Cordero & others for Beni) Freddy Valdez (w Wink, Cordero & others for Beni) Grant Gambrell (w Wink, Cordero & others for Beni) H Potts (w JRosario for Moreland) I think the plan is to build up and b uild up, until we think we are within 1-2 big players away from being a top contender, Then, we splurge and hope it's enough. I don't think we will ever see a Henry team go all in like 2018, again. Maybe that means we never win again, but we did win in 2013 and other years withou sacrificing the future to do so.

The worst part of Cordero was his defense at 1B. With the need for OF depth, I'm not sure he'll be DFA'd. He just won't ever be used at 1B, again. That being said, I do think he is in the top 5 DFA list. I do think Duran is a high trade candidate. I think he brings back more than Dugo would, due to more years of team control and perhaps a higher upside.

Plus, top brass can't exactly come out and say, "Our plan is to give fans the perception we will be competitive, while we make the extended future our top priority." They have to fill seats and keep viewership high. Plus, I do think the plan was to be somewhat competitive in 2021 and 2022, but just not an all-in scenario many fans seem to expect, every year. It worked in 2021. It did NOT work, this year. Had we just had the normal amount of injuries, I think we make the playoffs, but I'm not using injuries as an excuse. The 2022 team was not good enough to win it all, perhaps even with 100% health. We still had serious issues at 1B, RF and the pen. We also don't know if a 100% healthy Sale would be a great pitcher or not, if a 100% healthy Kike would repeat 2021 or not, if 100% healthy Barnes would be good or horrific. I could go on and on. This wasn't a ring team, to begin with, and IMO, that's why Henry and Bloom decided not to go all in. This was not the 2017 team looking forward to 2018.

No doubt. Every Sox ring team included big ticket FAs or trade additions, but without a strong farm, the cost of filling too many open slots with FAs becomes counter-productive, and it seems like Henry is not into becoming a bigger spender than he has been already. You can't build up the farm with just draft picks and IFA signings, unless you are really good at it. The strategy has been to add prospects via trades like Ottavino and German, Wink and 3 others for Beni, 2 with JBJ for Renfroe and 2 for Vaz and 2 for Hosmer while giving up 1 in Groome. Whether Bloom chose the prospects wisely remains to be proven, but clearly that has been the strategy of Sox management, and I have to believe Henry is supporting or even led the way for the shift from DD's style to Bloom's style of team building.

I think Nate takes a QO. He would hope he has a good 2023 and then makes more in 2024 and beyond. I do think they offer him a QO. JD is more doubtful, but one year deals are easier to swallow. Question: if Bogey opts out, can they offer him a QO?

Hosmer is not a rental. He's got 2 years of team control remaining and costs just the minimum wage. On a team in need of maximizing spending to fill so many open slots, I see 1B /DH as one we give Hosmer a shot at filling. Planning on him to fill one, for at least 2023, or until he proves he can't hit well enough, anymore. I don't think Bloom trades Casas, but I do think we may need to trade a top prospect to get top quality at non-FA cost. Big trades for SP'ers (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale) has been the trademark of this team that has struggled to develop starters from our farm. Part of my suggested idea of trading Casas, is that I think 1B is the easiest posit2ion to fill in other ways, and I'm not as high on Casas as a prospect as others and BTV seem to be. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm thinking sell high. I'd be okay trading Yorke, but that might be a sell low thing. Of course, there is no concrete evidence of casas trade consideration or any other prospect I am aware of. I realize Bloom's M.O. is to acquire prospects not trade them, as was Ben's, but Ben did trade some, and so has Bloom. (No real top ones, yet.) We could trade Dalbec, but for what? Could you see trading Casas for a top catching or OF prospect? A ML ready 2B/SS type? Are our top prospects more can't miss than a Langeliers (C on the A's) or Laureano (OF on the A's)? BTV Value: OF 32.1 Laureano C 23.9 Langeliers (or Soderstrom 38.0) or ML'er Murphy 57.8 9 (3 yrs control) 39.7 Casas 21.2 Yorke 5.6 Lugo 5.4 Gonzalez 5.0 Jordan Would you never post again, if we traded Casas and Yorke for Murphy or Casas, Lugo and Gonzalez for Laureano & Langeliers? My guess is, OAK would say no, not BOS.

I said I think Bloom may choose adding a Hill-type, not that it is what I want to happen. (If Henry opens the wallet, I'm fine with adding veteran SP depth, too.) I'd like to pool all our resources into a few really good players, this winter, rather than spreading the wealth around. I'd like to see the kids fill in the depth roles and 5th starter type slots. No, I'm not counting on for 31 starts. He hasn't had over 25 starts since 2018 and that was 27 starts not 31. I certainly am not counting on Paxton for even 21. I think it is entirely reasonable to count on maybe 33 starts combined. If we get more, great, but planning on 50+ starts from those two is planning on failure, IMO. I want us to sign one solid starter to fill the shoes of Nate, Wacha and Hill. Many would think that is not enough. I think that is giving plenty of room for the kids to fill in the rest of the rotation, and whoever doesn't make it into the starting 5, we know we have plenty of key pen slots open for 2023.

If Sale and Paxton could time their IL stints apart from each other, it would be very helpful. (LOL) We have a lot of young arms to pool together and come up with 2 starting slots and maybe 3-4 pen slots, but it might take a few trial and error attempts to find the right ones for the right slots, and too many losses could occur during their "trials." The early results on Wink and Crawford have been very encouraging, but it was Bello and Mata that appeared to have the best stuff to win a starting role. That could be a good thing having 4+ guys to choose from over 2, but it could also be a bad thing, if we have to cycle through some failures to end up at a success story. While mayb e none of these guys jump out as a near cinch to make it big, I do think many or all show enough promise to think 3-5 might make a significant contribution in 2023: Bello Mata Wink Crawford Seabold Ward (not sure we Rule 5 protect him) Murphy (Rule 5) Pen? Walter (Rule 5) Pen? German (Rule 5) Pen That's 9 arms to fill maybe 4-5 slots.

I think the direction and plan is clear to management: build up the farm and strive for consistent- competitiveness. This season was a cluster you-know-what, but I doubt it has changed the masterplan much. The trades made at the deadline helped 2023 and beyond much more than 2022, even if just speculatively. They had to balance fan outrage vs looking more to the future than the here and now. I guess they felt the fans could stomach trading Vaz over Nate & JD. They added Hosmer (free 1Bman/DH for the next 2+ years), Pham (a RH'd OF'er), McGuire (a defensive plus catcher to possibly start or replace Plawecki in 2023) and a number of promising prospects for beyond 2023. Some may not like the "direction," but to me it has been pretty clear. I don't think management thought or planned to have highly competitive teams in 2021 or 2022, but 2021's success made following their complete rebuild plan harder to disguise. I think they hoped we'd be competitive enough to keep fans engaged and interested, and it worked in 2021. It failed miserably in 2022 for various reasons. It's easy to use injuries as an excuse, but this team had very little chance of winning it all, even with normal or expected amounts of injuries and "down seasons" expected every year. There were just too many failures to sustain a competitive team in 2022. We had a brief period where everything seemed to be falling into place, but that was derailed in July. The hope that Dalbec/Shaw and Casas could make 1B a break even or plus position turned into a nightmare. Cordero only made it worse. Story's slow start and injury was barely offset by his stellar D and high RBI rate. Bogey and JD's lack of run production was a bit unexpected and hurt like hell. The OF's lack of production was expected, but the extreme to which it failed was probably worse than even the most pessimistic fan envisioned. The Sale/Paxton injury status was to be expected, although the finger injury to Sale was unfortunate. What we got from Wacha and Hill was probably better than expected, but simultaneous injuries to them, Sale and Nate put the kibosh on any hopes for 2022. The pen was hurt badly by having to use Houck and Whitlock as starters, and the failed comeback by Barnes, which could have been expected. The magic Cora seemed to have with past pens did not occur in 2022. Diekman, Robbles and others turned into pumpkins, Strahm and Schreiber were breaths of fresh air, but neither was around for the whole season (Schreiber by choice.) Cora's choices always seemed to be wrong, although many of his choices seemed, to me, to be seeking the lesser of multiple evils. Bloom did okay with Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Refsnyder and Schreiber additions but failed with Diekman, Shaw and to a large extent, Story. Add these all together, and it spells failure. To me, it does not spell failure for 2023, though. We have an opportunity to greatly improve upon 2022 and even 2021's team. Bringing everyone back (Bogey, Nate, JD, Vaz & Kike) would not make us better, and might even make us worse. This team was headed for an overhaul, like it or not. I'm hopeful Bloom will choose wisely, this winter, but certainly I am skeptical and apprehensive. The farm appears to be stronger and deeper from the rookie leagues to AAA than it was 3-6 years ago. They may all peeter out, but all we can do is try to improve it, and Bloom seemed like the right guy to do that. Watching some of DD's prospects rise higher than most of us expected has been a big boost to the farm, as well. Kudos to DD for that. I hope we extend Devers, and then our framework for the future looks pretty good to me.

Maybe they are counting Schwarber and Iggys as part of the deconstruction, and maybe Bloom should be blamed for guessing Perez's best season wrongly. Maybe he should have brought Richards, Marwin and Andriese back, instead of Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Robles.

I agree that Bogey will not return. I seriously doubt JD and Nate will, either. I still think trading one of Dugo or Duran makes too much sense. I think we view Hosmer as our 1Bman for the next 2 years and use Casas as part of a package to get a SP, Catcher, OF'er or 2B/SS. I think Bloom/Cora make Whitlock an opening season SP'er and move Wink and/or Crawford to the pen. I think we sign one large & long FA (Judge, TTurner, Correa, Verlander or Nimmo) I think we sign 2 second tier FAs like Haniger/Kike, Swanson/Anderson, Narvaez, Bassitt/Morton/Kershaw, Mancini/Abreu/Muncy I admit, I might be pie-eyed, here.

Out of 971 IP by Sox pitchers, this year, these are the innings from pitchers who see their team control end after 2022: 94 Eovaldi (4.23 ERA) 74 R Hill (4.52) 70 Wacha (2.69 done with rehab?) 38 Diekman (4.23 already gone) 28 Strahm (3.58) 25 Robles (5.84 gone) 16 Valdez (4.41 gone) Total: 345 That's 36% of all IP. One might want to replace these IP, too: 43 Sawamura (3.32) 40 Brasier (5.36) 31 Danish (4.02) 18 Barnes (7.50) 12 Ort (9.49) 11 Seabold (11.91) 6 DHern (14.29) 3 Feliz (2.70) Total: 164 IP That's another 17% making the combined total near or over 50%. I can't see Sox management deciding to give all thos elost or potentially lost IP to: Wink Crawford Bello Mata Seabold German Murphy and add more workload to Houck, Whitlock & Schreiber

I seriously doubt they view this as the full rotation. Maybe they slide Whitlock into one slot or wait for Sale or Paxton to go down to move him there (keeping his innings below 170.) Then, they just add depth like Hill, again. I hope not. I'll be seriously bummed and mildly surprised, if they do.

I'm not so sure we go "Wacha/Hill" types, again, and here's why: In the past, Bloom has needed 2-4 rotation slots filled, every winter, and even if you count needing to replace Nate, Wacha and Hill (+Sale/Paxton), this coming winter as 3-4, I think the idea is to fill a few with the kids- good or bad. Maybe I'm just hoping, here, but I think we go with one much better starter, instead of the pairs like Richards/Perez and Wacha/Hill. I'd love to see an ace type or a solid #2, but a few them were already traded at the deadline (Castillo, Montas...) I'm not sure Kershaw, Bassitt or Morton reach that level. I see them more as solid #3's going into 2023. Maybe we splurge on Verlander on a short deal. Anyway, this would look fine, to me: Verlander Sale/Paxton (count on just one) Pivetta Winckowski/Bello Crawford/Mata (I'd avoid starting Whitlock, but that may not happen, and who fills his pen role?)