moonslav59

Very true, but that has happened before. He did spend big from 2016-2018, but we still never went 3 years over or paid a mega tax in any year, like the Dodgers and soon to be Mets.

The farm is much better, and Casas and Bello are the best two prospects we've called up in the same year in many many years, but we are not "there, yet," and it takes time to start seeing farm results, especially when you focus on adding HS players in the draft and 17-18 year olds in IFA.

It's hard to know what his spending plan looks like. History shows he does NOT spend big, unless and until we seem to be 1-2 key pieces away from being highly competitive, and then, the mega spending does not last for more than 1-2 years. He has never paid a 3rd year tax. The key questions are: Is he prepared to go 3 years over and be significantly over in year 2 or 3? Are we 1-2 key players away from being highly competitive, orwill that long-standing strategy be abandoned? Perhaps, only Henry knows. My guess, the answer is no to both questions. I think we reset in 2023 or 2024. I think we are not just 2 key players away from being highly competitive, and that is beyond bringing Bogey and Devers back beyond 2023 and 2024, which will be costly without adding anything to what we already have.

I hope he can score hits like Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder, McGuire and others, like last winter. Those results speak for themselves, too. Sure, there is the JBJ deal everyone wants to focus, solely on and the W-L record, and yes, we cannot have a repeat of this year. Would a repeat of 2021 be good enough for the bloom-bashers?

It helps that the Dodgers often hit jackpot on their mega signings, except for a few- like Bauer. Many felt they overpaid, bigtime for a 1Bman, Freeman, but they guy is top 10 in fWAR, this year, and if he declines, they'll just add another big contract. We have largely swung a missed on our most recent big signings (Sale, Price, HRam, Pablito and back to Crawford), or at best, got sporadic or mixed results like from Nate & JD. Bogey was an extension that added 1 year to his team control with the opt-out. That one worked. The Story signing has not started out well, but it looks better than the Sale signing. IMO, the free agents signings only work, when you have a foundation established by a strong and deep farm and a GM who has the ability to fill lower paid roles well. I know Bloom has had mixed results on the lower paid players, but overall, I don't think we should have expected more than Whitlock, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo, McGuire and a few others. We are starting to see an uptick in farm help, and that is a good sign. Of course, much of that is speculative, but we can look back at all the farm help we've gotten from 2016 or 2017 to 2021, and count on one hand (or finger) all the positive players- namely Houck. It's no surprise we can't fill all the high need areas on $40M.

I forgot to mention Price!

The Sale, Nate, JD and Bogey deals were all 3 or more years long. You keep saying I interpret your positions wrongly, but where did I say Bloom deserves aa pat on the b ack? Pointing out that our record should be viewed in the context of playing in, by far, the toughest division is not a "defense." It's adding context. Things are not always black and white, and before you go on saying you never said they were, I know that. When way more than half of the dead money is not on Bloom, I think that matters a lot. Only Story and Barnes are on Bloom, and both don't seem like total write-offs, either. Bloom will lose a big chunk of the deadwood, as well as possibly non-deadwood in Bogey and maybe later, Devers. Let's give the guy a chance. Not pat him on the back, but a realistic chance to form "his team."

No doubt. We could have been better or much better had Bloom gotten 100% or even 85% of his moves right, but when you are forced to spend $4-8M/1 on most of your players acquired, it's hard to expect that. Hell, the success rate of signing known studs is hardly 50%..

Again, look at the 2020 roster- all 40 players plus the state of the farm after 2019. Then, look at the net winter spending budgets (cuts before 2020, $40M in 2021 and about $60M before, this year). Bloom had to be creative and ingenious to fix that mess. He did well on some moves (Whitlock, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Strahm and the 2021 Kike) and swung and missed on others (Richards, Perz I, Perez II, Paxton, Marwin, Andriese and most of all JBJ), but when you are forced to sign 1 year deal fro $3-7M, you'd need a lot of miracles to bring this team to glory in 3 short years. Bloom had made several mistakes, as have GMs with bigger winter spending budgets. It's not like Bloom chooses $3-7M one-year contracts over larger and longer ones, and that's why I respond when people point out the $200M budget and oversimplify the reality of what that budget is all about. Just my opinion.

Ok. I went with cots. I think the 2 tiered option is the point of contention. Paxton is guaranteed $4M, if he takes his option after the Sox refuse theirs, but he could say no and not get the $4M. Since it's not a "buyout," it's not really guaranteed. Either way, 4 of the top 5 deals on the budget were DD signings or extensions. Only Bogey earned his money, but his dip in RBIs really hurt our chances, this year. Cal it excuse-making. Call it reality, but to bring up the $200M player budget as something Bloom should be held totally responsible for is deceptive. Now, I'm sure Red will counter with

The problem is, if you spend all your budget on Judge, you won't spend on the depth you need. Same with the Sox: if we spend on Bogey and Devers, there will not be enough to fill other high need areas, enough to win, unless and until we start getting more and better farm infusions. We did see an uptick, this year with Casas and Bello, and it looks like more are coming in 2023 and 2024, but will or can it be enough?

It's like the chicken or egg coming first.

Ill make it easy... Lux Tax Dollars 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 11.2 Devers (arb2 of 3) 10.0 Paxton 9.4 Barnes 7.0 Kike 7.0 Wacha 5.0 Hill 3.6 Dugo (arb 1 of 3) 3.0 Strahm 2.7 Pivetta (arb 1 of 3) Less than 1.5: Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo, McGuire, Danish, Taylor, German, Kelly, Wong, Wink, Seabold, Ort and others Houck, Casas, Bello, Dalbec, Duran, Crawford, Brasier, Bazardo and others

You mentioned the $200M player budget as something to pat Bloom on the back for, not me. I'm with you on the bad idea to just let expiring contracts go for just a comp pick, but it seems like it's a lose-lose choice for the Sox GM. With the tight wallet, he gets grief for trading our beloved stars or grief for not trading them. Lets say we kept Betts, Bogey, Beni and then Devers. If that meant we could add basically nobody else to fill in the 10-15 other high need slots, we'd probably look like the Angels of the east. Our farm was not at the point where we could expect enough infusions to even come close making us a winning team. Henry would have had to come close to the Dodger payroll to get to glory. We can argue that he "can, if he wants to" all day long, but until we see it, we shouldn't expect it. BTW, it wasn't just losing Betts. Take a look at the 2020 roster: it lacked quality AND quantity and not $40M spending budget could solve all the problems. Not even a GM who got 100% of his moves right could have fixed that, overnight. The fact that we got as far as we did in 2021 was just short of miraculous or "genius" or just plain luck. This past winter was much like 2021, until the late March Story signing, and our expectations were supposed to be a ring in '22? Really? But hey, it's $200M and Bloom is a bum, because we finished last to team that spend hugely or who had a solid and deep farm system in place for several years- or both?

I remember when we signed Pablito & HRam; the talk was we should have signed Scherzer. The following winter, we broke our self-imposed rule of no long term deals to anyone over 30, when we signed Pric e to $210M/7. At that time, I felt like Price had the type of profile worth overpaying for and giving an extra year or two. Even he did not work out as hoped or planned. Now, are Rodon and Syndergaard really the types of pitchers we want to go large and long on? Granted, they may accept less than 7 years, but I'm just not feeling the optimism with just about any FA SP'er, this year- not that my feelings matter, as I have been wrong so many times on who we should spend on, it's not even funny. My idea is to trade for a younger, cost-controlled pitcher, but that may be a bigger pipedream than those suggesting we spend $80-100M, this winter (beyond the $10M we just gave to Kike.) I see the best FAs out there as Nimmo and one of the 4-5 SSs (Turner, Correa, Bogey, Swanson and maybe Anderson.) Judge ain't happening. I'm not sure the lon term plans would allow for a top 6 or 2 top 12 prospects trade to fill another high need area- like pitching, so maybe all our hopes for 2023 are just a mirage. I hope not, but certainly a reset and a bigger spending winter for 2024 is a possibility. Even if that is the case, I think top brass knows enough to do something, this winter, to bring back some hopes and optimism to Sox Nation. I'm not sure a b unch of one year deals will calm the natives. I see the Story deal as one that was not just about 2022 and 2023, but the hopes were he'd be part of the longer term plan, as well. Maybe we make two deals like that, this year: 4-5 years, so not super long and $22-$27M, so not super large. Enough to reset, but leaving (too) many positions to the kids and in-house solutions for many or most fans to be satisfied with.

I added some minor adjustments. It's obvious Bloom's focus has mostly been on all 5 ways, with the FA choice being limited by a fairly strict winter spending budget- not strict in the sense that he had to spend less than 20 other GMs did, except before 2020, but strict in the sense that $40M AAV to fill 10-15 slots is not going to get you a Verlander.

Is he patting DD on the back for much of that $200M?

Top 25 Everyday WAR players on the same team: Rank: STL 2. Arenado 3. Goldschmidt 19. Edman LAD 5. Freeman 7. Betts 12. T Turner HOU 8. Y Alvarez 9. Altuve 16. Bregman 25. Tucker NYM 6. Lindor 18. McNeil 23. Nimmo BOS 14. Bogaerts 21. Devers CLE 13. Gimenez 15. Ramirez Pitchers SFG 1. Rodon 13. Webb HOU 3. Verlander 15. F Valdez AZ 10. Gallen 25. M Kelly CLE 8. Bieber 20. T McKenzie

MLBTR reports... Amidst a difficult Red Sox season, Matt Strahm has been a bright spot, posting a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings and filling a number of different roles in Boston’s bullpen. After being non-tendered by the Padres last winter, Strahm signed a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with the Sox in March and he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that he “would love” a return to Boston in 2023. Strahm also said he is open to returning to a relief role, but also wants to market himself as a starting pitcher. Strahm made 16 starts for the Padres in 2019 but none since, as knee injuries limited the southpaw in any role in 2020-21. However, Strahm said he is ready to resume a starter’s workload, as a consistent running program has made his knees “feel better than when I was drafted.” Since the Red Sox have multiple starters slated for free agency this winter, re-signing Strahm and at least giving him a trial run as a starter would make some sense, as the Sox would then have the fallback of moving the left-hander back into the bullpen. Cotillo reported that the Brewers, Royals, and Tigers were among the teams vying for Strahm last offseason, so any of that trio could conceivably still have interest in his next trip to the open market.

Ohtani and Angels avoid arbitration and agree on $30M deal.

Minor League FAs and Rule 5 Maybe Five? MiFA Minor League FA Enmanuel Valdez Johan Mieses Christian Stewart Rule 5 Ceddanne Rafaela Brandon Walter Thaddeus Ward Wilyer Abreu Good enough but too far away or on the Bubble? Eddinson Paulino Wikelman Gonzalez Chris Murphy David Hamilton Victor Santos Christian Koss Devlin Granberg Angel Bastardo Kole Cottam Jake Thompson Gilbert Jimenez Jacob Wallace Luis de la Rosa

What kind of eye testing is this? LOL

I'm shocked you're not riveted to the Sox-Jays game.

21 hits to 5 is almost worse than the 10-0 score.

I hope you are not "worrying" about all that happening, because you'll be in for a big disappointment.