moonslav59

Duran could probably get us Lodolo. Duran to a third team, plus Crawford might get us Joe Ryan. Duran plus Tolle or Early might get us Greene or Hunter Brown. How about this for a Christmas blockbuster? Duran, Tolle, Phillips and Mullins for Hunter Brown (3 arbs, but try to extend) and Paredes (2 arbs but try to extend)?

While KMarte had 5-6 years to Duran's 3 of control, the age factor negates than aspect of such a trade. The recency factor favors Marte. The defense, too. I'd offer Duran and maybe Crawford or Harrison. I'd prefer to give them Sandlin or Mullins, but I'm not sure they do it. One big factor: I think with all the deferrals, KMarte's deal is less than $15M AAV. Subtract $7.8 for Duran and $2.7 for Crawford, and the tax hit would only be about $4-5M a year! We might still be under tax line 1! JH might be okay with a 5-6 year deal in this context.

This is why I worried more about losing out on Polanco and H-S Kim than Alonso. I'm not sure how many more meaningful 1-2 year deals are out there. Of course, I hated missing out on Alonso more, but knowing about the no 5 year plus priority, explains why we wont get anyone for that long, unless they are wowed by the talent or lower price. This is why I actually think KMarte should be, but probably is not, still on our radar. His AAV is not high. Hell, he's owed $89M/5, which is less than we paid Pablito! $45M is deferred, so the AAV is reportedly under $15M a year! I'd pay him $89M/4, so why should the 5th year scare us away? He's likely worth $90M/3 and would get that as a FA, right now. On long deals like his, we need to look at all the context. If his AAV is under $15M, including Duran or Rafaela in the deal would knock the AAV cost to below $8 or 9M a year! I know I am 99% sure to be wrong, but I'd trade Duran or Rafaela, Crawford & Phillips for K Marte, then sign Bassitt for 1 year. We'd still have 9 decent to great SP'ers, a big switch-hitting power bat, our 2B issue finally solved after a decade of clown circus play there. We'd still have 3 solid OF'ers with a KC-Masa platoon in LF as our OF depth. We'd have Masa/Casas and Romy at DH. Contreras/Romy at 1B. KMarte/Romy at 2B. Story/Mayer at SS. Mayer/Romy/Eaton at 3B, and Narvaez/Wong as our catchers. Our pen could be boosted by adding Harrison or one of our minor league SP'ers to the MLB pen (maybe Sandlin or Drohan.) To me, this would be a better team than April 2025 or August 2025's team (before Anthony got hurt.)

We are not the only ALE team with major concerns and issues. The Sox lost nearly 1200 PAs with a combined OPS of about .850 from Bregman, Devers, Refsnyder & N Lowe, and there is talk of trading Duran, too. The Sox lost Gio, Wilson, some other pitchers by trade, but also Buehler and others who did not do so well. The Sox added Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras & Oviedo plus Watson and a few prospects- some of whom might pitch in MLB, soon. Crawford, Sandoval, Abreu, Slaten, Anthony and others (Casas & Masa) are expected to return from injuries. The Sox sorely need a big RHB, preferably a 2B/3Bman. They may be able to get by without a #2 SP'er, as their rotation is ranked #2 by one major site. Toronto has made some splashes with the Cease, Ponce and Tyler Rogers signings. These should more than offset the loss of Bassitt, Scherzer & S Dominguez. The Jays also lose Ty France & Kiner-Falefa. The big loss will be Bo Bichette, but as with many teams, there is talk of more big additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now. The Yankees 2026 season seems to hinge on the return of Cole from a serious injury. Maybe some Sox fans expect him to be great, but injured Sox players have zero expectations. It appears Judge won't need elbow surgery, but Rodon & Volpe are expected to start the season on the IL. They are also losing some key players to free agency: Bellinger, Grisham, Goldy, De Williams, Luke Weaver & Slater. They have made zero new FA additions. With no more additions, I do not see them as better, right now. BAL has added Alonso & Helsley as FAs. They traded for Baz, but have made a questionable trade (GRod to T Ward) and started out so far behind other ALE teams, the have a ways to go. They lost Sugano, Eflin. Mateo & G Sanchez to free agency. The Rays have not improved. They are rebuilding. Of course the Jays and Yanks seem more likely to make a big splash FA signing than the Sox, but the Sox might have one blockbuster trade to make and or a possible significant FA signing, which would be their first of the winter. The Sox still have their 3 top prospects (Yolle, Early & Arias) and traded their #4 Perales for their #6 Bennett, recently. They also have kept their... 5. Witherspoon 7. Valera 9. Gonzales 11. Soto, 12 Sandlin, 13 Phillips, 14 Eyanson, 15 Godbout, 16 Romero, 17-19 Uberstine, Drohan & Holobetz, as well and most from 21 on down. The Sox have 4 FT OF'er with K Campbell & Masa in reserve. The Sox have cut down on their SP'er depth by trading away some 5/6 type starters (Dobbins, Peralez, Fitts and the far away Fajardo & Travieso,) but they added Gray, Oviedo and Bennett by trade, too. I'm not sure we are currently deep enough to trade a good SP'er away, but for the right piece, we could and maybe should. Here is what I think is our current rotation rankings: 1. Crochet 3. Gray & Bello 4/5. Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford 5/6. Harrison, Early, Tolle (all with upside) That's 9. Last year, we started with 11 and needed to trade for DMay and add Tolle & Early to the 40, prematurely. We also used a few "openers" and De Leon. More depth but not really much trade value... AAA: Drohan, Uberstine, Sandlin, Gamboa, Mullins & AA Bennett, Holobetz & E Rivera I think we slightly improved our top 5 SP'ers. I wanted more, but so it is. Maybe we add more. I think we greatly improved our 1B situation and by adding Casas to the DH mix, helped that slot out, too. Of course, we started 2025 with Devers at DH and a hopeful Casas at 1B, so how much we gained from those expectations at 1B/DH in March, 2026 is not so good. Still Contreras beats out Toro & N Lowe. We need to replace and maybe upgrade Bregman's slot. Bregman or Bichette would keep that slot near equal. K Marte would boost it. Paredes would be nice, Donovan or Suarez might be okay, and Vientos a step down, IMO. I'm sure there are other options out there. Let's see what Brez has up his sleeve.

Merry Christmas!

Agreed- maybe even .850. I also think Masa could hit .800, but there is more to value than OPS.

We filled the 1B opening with a 1Bman who has some very nice numbers. We did not miss getting a solid #2 SP'er by too much, but I do think we fell short. I doubt Oviedo makes up that differential. We still need that big bat and a 2Bman or 3Bman. To me, KMarte fills both roles, but that seems like s long shot. His long contract sucks, but the AAV is not too bad, and could be lessened, if we give back Duran or Rafaela plus Crawford. (They won't take Hicks, even if we add another sweetener. I'm not optimistic, but there are still options out there.

To me, the subtracts are worse for us than the lack of additions.

All 3 teams added 2 players better than Gray and Contreras?

The Yanks have no re-signed or replaced Bellinger or Grisham, plus others. How come when Sox pitchers are returning from injury, you expect crap? Yes, TOR signed Cease, but he's no sure bet, and they still have Bichette unsigned. They have been bold. I do agree, as of now, we are not better than 2025, but Brez has been busy and has made some quality additions- just not top quality. I have said we need top quality not quantity, so I will not be happy, if we don't add a quality bat or #2 SP'er, but there is time.

Other teams lost big talent, too. Answer the question.

So, only two teams have done that, right? PHI & BAL. Maybe 3, if you count Cease to TOR?

Nice effort, here, but I doubt we can make that happen. If he's going to get $150M/5 somewhere, I'd rather give him $160M/6 than $130M/4. (I would not do any of these.)

Exactly. This is the reason a trade makes sense. Another team needs him more than we do.

He traded a lot, but none really amounted to much. The ones he kept did better. That being said, there was a big gap between Devers and the Houck/Duran adds.

Brez really dislikes 3+ year deals. The age seems secondary. He did sign Chapman and extend him. He did trade for 1-2 years of Sonny Gray. It's the years and not so much the age.

Yes, I figured more than twice the value: $29M/2 O'Hearn $12-14M/2 Yoshida. Originally, I thought Yoshida might be worth 1/4 to 1/3 that.

I wonder what our % of revenue was at in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

Why didn't we offer even 4 years, last winter? We only offered 1-3 years- his choice. He's a year older and missed 50 games due to an injury. I'm leery of 4 years, but would do it. I might offer the 5th year with a team option and $5M buyout, but that's tops for me. I'd prefer 3 with a mutual option 4th year.

It's possible Duran will hit .775 in 2026, since he hit .774, this year. Yoshida has a .762 career OPS, so expecting .775 from him in 2026 is pretty close. Of course, Duran adds tremendous speed and can create runs out of nowhere. My point is this? How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er vs how much he upgrades our DH position from a .775 Yoshida (with Casas/Romy as DH depth?) The answer seems obvious. We need to trade an OF'er, and it does not have to be Duran. The others offer better D than Duran.

I think Lodolo is a legit #2. He has 2 arbs left to Duran's 3. It's kinda hard to know if 2025's "career year" will be his best, but he apparently has real good "stuff." His 2.8 fWAR ranks 35th, so that looks like a #2. He had a 3.78 FIP (40th) He was 25th in xFIP. If you combine 2024-2025, he still ranked T36th in fWAR at 4.9. He's 32nd in FIP at 3.85. bWAR gave him a 4.9 for 2025! (6.1 for '24+'25) I'd make this trade, but the pressure would be even higher to find a boost for the line-up with no Duran, Bregman, Devers, Ref and N Lowe and just Contreras added.

Wow! O"Hearn gets $29M/2 from PIT. He's 32 and mostly a DH/1B/RF. 122 OPS+ since 2023. 46 Hrs and a .788 OPS. Yoshida has a 109 OPS+, 29 Hrs and a .762 OPS over the same timeframe. He's also 32. Makes me think maybe Masa could be worth $12-14M/2 to somebody. ( i was thinking more like $8-10M/2, before this news.)

Risky but not likely giving us nothing of value after 2 years.

If it’s 6 years we have zero chance, 5 years maybe 10% chance, 4 years maybe 25% and 3 years maybe 50% tops, but I doubt he takes 3, if longer offers are out there.

You may be right, but 2-3 moves can and should help the team, but as of now, I agree we have not done enough to get us "over the top." I'm not certain we are done. I'll hold off being so certain about JH having no winning priority until the winter is over. The one piece of evidence I have is what JH allowed, last winter- just after extending Devers to 10 years and an AAV nearly 50% higher than the previous Sox record contract: Bregman shattered the AAV record contract by a Sox signing or extension Buehler was the highest AAV paid to a FA SP'er since Price and 3rd highest among all SP'ers in Sox history. This was also accompanied by the Sandoval deal. While both failed (Sandoval, so far) it did show a "priority" to spend to try and win. The Chapman signing and extension was no dumpster dive, either. Now, Breggie, Devers and Gio (Buehler too) are gone, and JH's intentions are back to the forefront, again, but there is no way any of know what he will do to replace their contracts. I don't blame you for assuming he won't spend, but you sound like more than assuming. You sound very certain, and I think that is unfounded. I hope you are wrong, and I think you hope so, too.