moonslav59

I'm not sure what Wach's previous highest contract has to do with a QO offer. I agree, it's an overpay, but it's just one year. I'm not for offering Nate a QO, but if the idea is to reset in '24, I would understand the offer.

The one year aspect of the QO might make them worthy of an offer, especially if the pan is to reset in '24 not '23. It also gives time for Bello, Mata, Walter, Crawford and others to try and earn a 2024 slot.

Are there still posters saying DD totally decimated the farm or was that just a strawman construction?

Look at the 2020 season, as well (all players with 0.7 or higher bWAR): bWAR 5.7 Bogey 4.4 Devers 3.3 Wacha 2.7 Schreiber 2.6 Pivetta 2.5 Story 2.2 Vaz 1.8 Whitlock 1.6 Houck 1.5 Nate 1.2 Ref 1.2 Dugo 1.1 JD 0.9 Hill 0.9 McGuire 0.8 Kike 0.7 Arroyo 0.7 Sawamura fWAR has the top 5 Sox pitchers as all Bloom additions: 1.8 Hill 1.7 Schreiber 1.5 Wacha 1.5 Pivetta 1.4 Whitlock 1.3 Bello

I get the feeling you think I am not understanding why low fan attendance and viewership is important, or that I lessen its importance when the team makes decisions on what to do, next. I think the Story signing was an example of how management hears the fans and plans with them in mind, while also trying to balance the longer term outlook, which they know most fans don't think about or care about, except in the abstract. I know full well, the product on the field has to match the high ticket prices and cost of a NESN subscription, or profits will suffer. I feel like you think "if I only understood" all this, my opinion might change. I may be wrong about this, and in some ways, maybe I do the same with those who disagree with my positions by thinking I just "need to help them understand." I'm no better than anyone here, and maybe I'm reading your messages incorrectly. I know I am in a minority by wanting us to build a sustainable winning system, even if it comes at a heavy cost for a 3-5 year window. I did not expect it to take 4-5 years. I always felt that if we ever resume paying near the tax line and going over for 1-2 years, here and there, we could get back to serious competition in 3 or less years. I expected the farm to take longer than 3 years to get to the point it is now, and that is extremely gratifying to me. I get that teh average fan could care less about this fact, but to me, it is a sign that we are getting closer to a sustainable, winning plan. (The prospects thread: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20299-2022-Prospects lists 15-16 players that are expected to see MLB time in 2023.) I'm not for hoarding prospects. I think there are times- maybe every 3-6 years, where a strategic prospect trade is needed to obtain a key piece that puts us over the top- like the Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale trades. I'm not so sure this winter is that time, but I do think that time is near and the farm is deep and strong enough to withstand one such deal, but not 3-4 deals like those in a short window.

I disagree. I think we have done better than we should have, under Bloom. Things are better than they seem, and the outlook is better than the bashers think they are.

I don't believe the 13.50 ERA in Wacha's last 2 starts is the real Wacha more than I believe he's a 2.70 ERA pitcher, but I'm pretty certain he is neither. I trust he can come closer to 3.50 in 2023 than Nate. I can see offering them both a QO, but if they both take it, how are we improving on 2022? They'd take up close to 2/3 of the winter spending budget with SS, RF and the pen still needing serious attention, not to mention DH.

The shuffling sand piggy-backing needs to stop with Houck and Whitlock. I share your views on which of the two is better suited for starting and relieving, but moving Whitlock to the rotation has to coincide with major additions to the pen, which I'm not so sure will happen, or if they do, will it mean we go with Dugo, Refsnyder and some scrub signing at corner OF or count on Arroyo to play FT in the middle IF, to save enough resources to pay for the pen upgrades? This rotation looks okay, not great, to me: Wacha Sale Whitlock Pivetta Bello (Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter) The pen would then look like this: ___FA___ Houck ___FA___ Schreiber ___FA___ Barnes Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish, Brasier, converted SP'er...

Year one: we are forced to trade Betts and include Price in the deal and end up paying half his contract for 3 years. We don't even spend enough to replace their salaries. We have 15-20 weak to very weak spots on the 40 and a bottom 5 farm. Year two: we spend $40M to upgrade some of those 15-20 weak slots and make some traded to improve the farm, at the expense of the big club roster. Year three: we look like we are spending only $40M again but have less than 15-20 slots to fill, then we make a semi-major splash signing of Story late in March. The farm has slowly improved, but Houck, Dalbec and Duran were the main prospects we added since the mid 2017 Devers call-up. The budget barely gave enough to fill some important roles with with %5-10M, mostly 1 year deals and a bunch of waiver wire pick-ups and under the radar additions like Schreiber, refsnyder and Whitlock. Does this look like the making of a 2 or 3 year rebuild? If you think yes, please explain how that is possible. Either you don't think the roster of 2020 was as bad as it looked, or you think the farm can be built up and the players developed to ML worthiness in 3 or less years, or you think $40M AAV in winter spending should have been enough to fill 15-20 slots on the 40. IMO, I think it's pretty incredible that year 4 is showing to be a major year for farm infusion. Whether they pan out or not, is yet to be known, but in terms of sheer numbers, the impact may be stunning. Much of this has to do with prospects here before Bloom, but it should be noted, he did not trade almost all of our best prospects in the 3 years the big club was suffering. (I'm pretty sure he did not want to, but there is a good chance he was also told not to.) I know it pains many fans to think we might still have a year or two to go, and when we look at over $200M in player salaries, excuse-making gets tiring and unimportant to many. Could Bloom have done better with the few signings he made? Of course, although this past winter's signings were some of our brightest areas. However, the JBJ trade darkened everyone's opinions- and rightfully so. I don't think anyone can deny that a rebuild was taking place. We are at the point where many feel it is or most definitely should be complete, but it doesn't always work out as we wish, and it's basically up to JH to decide, if 2023 is the beginning of the post-rebuild era. I know many don't want to think beyond what's in front of their noses, but do we really want to go all-in or nearly all-in just to reset in 2024? Maybe JH will, for the first time, pay taxes and be penalized for 3rd year overages, but I am acting on the assumption, he will not. Will going all in in 2023, mean good bye to Devers as we reset in '24? Will going all in mean a bunch of one year deals, so we can keep Devers in '24, but see us not replacing many of the holes left by departing one year signees? Will the farm help be enough to fill most of those slots and allow us to be highly competitive in '24, as we reset, or will we have traded some of those prospects to win in '23- only to suffer in '24 ands beyond as a result of going for it now? Only JH and the ownership group knows for sure. Bloom probably has an idea, already, but I'm not so sure on that. I think the Story signing was a late change of plans, but that is just a hunch, I have.

The "as bad as some claim" group are mostly the Bloom bashers.

Unless the Sox can extend an ace with one year left, I would not trade top prospects for one. I'd rather just offer more. Even 2 years remaining is dicey.

What GM, given the parameters Bloom was given from day one could have brought this team to glory by year 3? I don't even think any other GM would have been allowed to trade away much of the farm, even if they wanted to.

Here is what soxprospects.com has to say about the prospects expected to play for the big club, at some point in 2023: https://www.soxprospects.com/index.html Tristan Casas Potential everyday regular. Ceiling of an all-star capable of hitting for both average and significant power. Looks the part of a prototypical bat-first first baseman capable of anchoring a lineup. Projects to add some value defensively at first base as well. Hit tool still needs development. Will have to ensure the swing-and-miss in his game does not impact his ability to tap into his power. Strong instincts and feel for the game. Great work ethic and strong clubhouse presence. Student of the game, really looks to hone his craft. Bryan Bello (recently graduated) Potential mid-rotation starter. Ceiling of a number two starter or high-end number three. At his best, will flash three at least above-average p itches, and on the right day, all will look like potential plus pitches. Has done a great job improving his delivery and command to the point where you can comfortably project him as a starter. Has done a much better job repeating delivery and holding velocity deeper into starts in looks in 2022. Attacks hitters with a plan and has multiple pitches he is confident using against hitters. Against right-handed hitters, throws a lot of two-seamers and sliders, while against lefties he tends to go more with four-seam fastballs up and changeups down. Has pitches that break in all four directions and can be used in any quadrant. Has had allowed more hard contact to lefties than righties and that is something worth watching as he reaches the major league level. In the past, he would show the stuff of a starter, but combination of thin stature and delivery indicated a potential future in the bullpen. Not imposing physically, but still has projection and has the type of athleticism you look for. Has continued to improve year after year, and now is the top pitching prospect in the system and one of the top ten or so right-handed pitching prospects in baseball. Ceddanne Rafaela Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate. Bryan Mata Projects as a back end starter or multi-inning relief arm with premium stuff to handle a late inning role if necessary. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide range of outcomes as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery. Raw stuff is back, but feel for secondaries and command come and go within outings. Might be able to start, but could be more effective in shorter bursts out of the bullpen. Delivery still has effort and we need to see how his stuff holds up over longer, 5-6-inning stints and when pitching on a consistent starter’s schedule. Will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. Harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Injury risk had become a concern even pre-Tommy John surgery, as he last made it through a full season healthy in 2017. Tommy John Surgery in April 2021 clouds future starter profile. Brandon Walter Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Control is already above-average-to-plus and command should get to at least average. You can debate whether he fits better as a starter or reliever depending on the day you see him. Has some traits that would push him to each potential outcome, but has the makings of a major league-caliber arm either way. If pushed to the bullpen, combination of stuff and handedness gives him a decent floor. Connor Wong Potential MLB backup or up-and-down catcher. Ceiling of a platoon catcher who will have a season or two of starter-level production. Has already earned the trust of the organization as the third catcher on the 40-man roster, but has yet to get much run in the majors. Will have to make more contact. Power tool is better than hit right now, and he needs refinement at the plate. Has improved defense to the point that he should be able to handle that side of things in some role. Chris Murphy Potential multi-inning relief arm and spot starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Lacks a standout pitch, but has three average-to-better pitches and a fourth that can be effective when used on occasion. Needs to improve consistency with secondary pitches and command to allow him to work deeper into games and develop into a consistent starter. Chances of starting are better now than in the past now that he has shown he can consistently get right-handed hitters out, something he really struggled with coming into this year. Ability to miss bats has come and gone this year and will need to show more consistency there if he is to stick as a starter. Enmanuel Valdez Potential bat-first bench player. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations. Has taken major strides at the plate in 2022; now has a chance to develop into at least a platoon bench bat and potentially more. Connor Seabold Potential swingman. Ceiling of a fifth starter. Has a four-pitch mix, but only his changeup projects better than average. Strong pitchability and advanced command and control profile allow his arsenal to play up. At his best, can generate whiffs with three pitches, but does not show consistency with his arsenal from outing to outing. Not the highest ceiling, but command/control and feel/pitchability, combined with proximity to MLB, give him a fairly high floor. Stuff is unlikely to be good enough to start for a contending team. Profiles better in a long relief and depth starter role, but could start for a second division club. Jeter Downs Potential emergency utility infielder. Ceiling of fringe-utility infielder who struggles to hold down a consistent role and jumps from team to team. Future potential is largely tied to development of his hit tool. Has really struggled to make contact in the high minors, especially on velocity. May have been promoted to Triple-A a bit too aggressively after the lost 2020 season given his limited exposure to Double-A. If he can develop even a below-average hit tool, has the chance to carve out a major league role, but even that is a question after prolonged struggles in Triple-A. Other tools are all about average, and he lacks another carrying tool if his hit tool does not develop. Frank German Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. Stuff has taken off since he moved to the bullpen in September 2021. In short bursts, his velocity has increased and his secondaries have improved. Lacks a plus secondary pitch right now, but has shown bat-missing ability with both splitter and slider against minor league competition. If one of his secondaries takes a step forward along with his command, has late-inning potential. Zack Kelly Projects as a middle reliever. Ceiling of a consistent seventh-inning arm. Likely lacks late-inning upside due to inconsistent command, but could stick around for a while as a sixth-inning arm. Fastball and changeup both project as plus pitches, with changeup showing true bat-missing ability. Cutter is more of a pitch-to-contact offering at present, but if it improves, would give him a third pitch that can miss bats. Late bloomer who could continue to improve and see his stuff take a step forward again. Ronaldo Hernandez Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher. Ceiling of an everyday catcher if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as is. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm. Eduard Bazardo Potential 11th or 12th pitcher on a major league staff. Ceiling of a quality middle reliever. Drastically improved velocity at the 2020 Fall Instructional League changed his projection, forcing the Red Sox to add him to the 40-man roster and putting him on the bullpen depth chart. Did not show that velocity after he got hurt in 2021, but as the 2022 season went on, velocity ticked back into the low-to-mid-90s. Potential for an above-average fastball and breaking ball combination with a jerky, deceptive delivery that could play against major league hitters. Needs to improve fastball command and improve consistency with his breaking ball in order to reach his ceiling. I can't remember seeing so many in one year. 14 on this list with a chance for maybe someone like T Ward to make, it up as well. There are also quite a few scheduled to arrive in 2024. The farm pipeline is looking much better and in a quicker time frame than I thought it would take.

I don't think a single poster believes or has said we should not be winning more with the budget we have. The disagreement- to some degree- is over how we got to this mess, and whether we should repeat the methodology that got us here in the first place, or not.

I never said they would. That is one reason I think we may make a plashy deal a year or two before maybe we should- emphasis on "maybe." Remember what’s good for how you see things might not be good for others see things especially the fans who pay the high ticket prices to go to the games at Fenway. If you think many fans were irate, and crybabies this year things will get worse next year if things don’t improve. I don't need to "remember." I made this exact point in my past posts. I'm also not against making a 2 or 3 good prospects for one, cost-controlled ace, right now. Not just to placate the crybabies, but to placate those who look beyond just the here and now and are not crying all day long, 7 days a week. I think our farm is near enough to where it has to be to allow for a big deal, but it should not, IMO, become a common occurrence. In reality, I do not think we are just a key player or two, or even 3 away from being a top contender, so I'd be fine waiting another year, but I also realize I am in a very small minority, and I would be drowned out by the crybabies, next season, if we punt to 2024 while trying to look semi-competitive in '23. This is not saying the crybabies have no right or reason to cry. I fully understand their reasons. I'm frustrated as hell, too. I'd rather see us get near the top sooner rather than later, but to me, unless we see a major shift in JH's spending tendencies, and it would have to entail going over the tax line for 3 or more years, perhaps by a lot, I'm not in favor of going all in for 2023, only to re-set in 2024 and then not have the prospects needed to pull us back up. We'd just be repeating the mistakes in the past.

We all do. It's who we lay most of the blame on that we diverge.

I call them crybabies, because they are babies who cry and cry and cry.

He'd be on his 4th one year deal, then.

The injuries could easily be the reason for the O dip. I'm really excited about Bleis & Perales. I'm hopeful we see Mata & Walter in 2023.

Yes, we have just arrived at the point where we can start to expect a steady flow of helpful graduating prospects. Some will surely disappoint, and some may surprise us. We may even have enough, where we can afford a trade very now and then that involves giving up 2-3, but to sustain the system, those times should be few and far between, and ideally made at strategic times when the team seems like it is just a key player or two away from a ring challenge, and the budget lines up with the window. NOT just because many fans are irate and screaming for an all-out strategy before everything is lined up. I'm not saying 2023 isn't the "right time." Much of the timing depends on spending plans none of us are privy to. Much depends on what Bogey and or Devers might accept as "hometown discounts" or overpays. Much depends on secondary signings and additions that may look like Marwin, Andriese, Richards and Diekman, or hopefully may look like Schreiber, Refsnyder, Renfroe, Wacha, Strahm or the 2021 Kike. I think the farm is currently lined up to expect about 3 useful to key additions every year for the next 3-5 years. If we keep signing good IFAs and drafting like Bloom seems to be doing well at, maybe 5-7 years or more.

I'm counting prospects that were in the system, before DD became the GM, too, plus the ones he drafted and needed years to develop. Many players take 5-7 years to develop, alone- or longer. I'm not sure what your point is. Also, DD could have "decimated the farm" by trading Devers. Later, he could have traded guys like Dalbec. He sure traded a lot, but clearly no decimation.

We have a lot to be hopeful over, next year on the farm.

One would expect the GM from 4-7 years ago to have more top prospects than the one from 0-3 years ago, due to aging and development, and I'm pretty sure DD added better prospects than many of expected he did when he left, and even a year or two beyond his departure. Here are the top prospects there were in the system before DD and added by DD during his time, here: Graduated (date became a non prospect) Devers 9/17 Brasier 8/18 Taylor 8/19 DHern 9/19 Dalbec 5/21 Houck 9/21 Duran 7/22 Crawford 8/22 Bello 10/22 Still prospects (pre-Bloom) w current soxprospects rankings 2. Casas 4. Rafaela 6. Mata 8. Walter 9. Paulino 12. Murphy 13. Wikelman 15. Perales 17. Lugo 18. TWard 19. Bonaci Bloom prospects of acquired when prospects: Graduated: Whitlock 6/21 Winckowski 9/22 Still prospects (current soxprospects ranking) 1. Mayer 3. Bleis 5. Yorke 7. Romero 10. Anthony 11. Wong 14. E Valdez 16. Jordan 20. Hickey 21. Coffey 22. Kavadas 23. Seabold 24. Downs 25. Rodriguez-Cruz 26. Abreu 27. German 28. Drohan 29. Kelly 30. Brannon 31. J Paez 32. R Hern 33. Binelas 34. McDonough 35. Uberstine This is not even close to "decimation" or "emptying."

I'm one who has no beef with DD bring us 2 first place finishes and the best season the Sox have ever had, but think we also went overboard in trading prospects. I, too, agree it is ******** to say he decimated or emptied the farm. Devers, alone exposed that exaggeration. A couple posters, maybe 3 or 4, in moments of hyperbolic rants have said he "decimated" or "emptied" the farm. I'm not sure why we are going on an on about this. DD traded over 20 prospects, who at one time or another were top 20 on soxprospects.com. Many had already lost value, when traded. Many had hyped value when traded, and never met the promise they had when traded. A few have done okay or better than okay. A few are still pending to some degree. In hindsight, the trades were worth it, but let's not shortchange the affect, even if less than many think it is, on the current team and farm value. We basically have nobody left from those trades, but a lot of glory to show from many of them. We'd also be better, right now with Kopech, Moncada, Margot, Beeks, and a few others. We'd also be better, if DD was handed a better farm or drafted/signed IFA better than he did. I think he did better than I expected when drafting so lowly and having penalties on IFA signings and restricted bonus pool money due to winning so damn much. All we need to do is look at who our farm has produced since Devers was called up in 2017. That's over 5 years ago. Let's not pretend the farm has been a big help since then. Even if you count the DD prospects trades after the Devers call-up as prospects that helped us, that list is short and nearly insignificant, excpet for maybe Beeks for Nate.

.426>.599>.438 ('12-'14) .481>.574 ('15-'16) .667>.519 ('18'19) not quite .600 to .400 but still a .148 drop followed by .400 in '20. .400>.568 ('20-'21) Not exactly .400 to .600 or ,600 to .400 but not are for us.