moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Troll!
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The thing is, he can make the bigs on his D alone. Add the versatile D, and he will make it in some role. Yes, his bat will determine 4th OF/Utility status vs FT'er or even All Star, and I share in SP's and MVP's concerns about that ever happening. If we are going to trade a top prospect but want to keep Bello, Casas, Mayer and Bleis, who is left that can net us some solid talent?
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AP Top 13 1. Georgia 11-0 (v GA Tech, then SEC Championship game) 2. Ohio State 11-0 (v Michigan, then Big 10 game, if they win) 3. Michigan 11-0 (@ Ohio St, then Big 10 game, if they win) 4. TCU 11-0 (v IA St, then championship game) 5. USC 10-1 (v #13 ND, then Pac 10 game) 6. LSU 9-2 (@ TX A&M, then maybe SEC game) 7. Clemson 10-1 (v upstart South Carolina, then ACC game) 8. Alabama 9-2 (v Auburn) 9. Tennessee 9-2 (@ Vandy) 10. Oregon 9-2 (@#23 Ore St) 11. Penn St. 9-2 (v Mich St) 12. Washington 9-3 (@ Wash St) 13. Notre Dame 8-3 (@ #5 USC)
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Agreed.
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You tell me. You brought it up.
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That's big if and the big "gamble," if we choose to trade him, this winter. Personally, I think he's worth more than the 15 BTV gives him, but trading Mayer, when we need a SS seems less likely. We do need an OF'er, too and another one after Kike leaves, and Rafaela could probably be a plus D SS, too. Tough decisions to make. More likely, we trade neither one.
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Not likely, the same as any big loss in a Henry investment would hurt the sox winter player spending budget. Your statement about the forced sale of Liverpool made it sound like Henry might have less to spend on the Sox, when the opposite would be truer.
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Might Perales be viewed as "too far away" to be selected next winter? He might be too damn good to not protect, no matter what the ETA is.
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I really like Rafaela. His defense and flexibility are huge pluses and make him valuable, even if his bat never amounts to anything above average. I don't think this small sample size changes his trade value or likelihood, but I do see him as one of the obvious subjects of this winter's trade suggestions.
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"Forced to sell." That's a good one. You do know the massive profit that will be made, right? Enough to pay several Dodger payrolls, for sure.
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Even if he lost $90M or more on a venture such as that, there is no reason to expect it to force a tightening of the Red Sox winter spending budget.
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I did not expect him to do as well as he did in 2021 nor as poorly in 2022. I think, overall, he's done about as expected. I'm hopeful 2023 will be closer to 2021 than 2022, and he can play over 140 games.
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A look at our lux tax history under Henry: Over/Under the Tax line: -12 '03 +10 '04 -11 '05 +1 '06 +7 '07 -8 '08 -23 '09 +1 '10 -4 '11 -2 '12 -0.3 '13 -3 '14 +11 '15 +15 '16 -3 '17 +43 '18 +38 '19 -23 '20 -2 '21 +12 '22 Some obvious patterns: 1. Never 3 years over the tax line in a row. 2. Several times going under for 2 or more seasons in a row (once for 4 years) 3. Only 2 seasons being under the tax line by more than $12M (2009 & 2020). 4. Almost all the years under the tax since 2009 were by less than $4M. (6 under $4M and only 2020 was by more) 5. Only 2 seasons saw us go over by more than $15M- 2018 and 2019.
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Maybe. I'm going on the assumption we once again, end up near the tax line, knowing full well I could be wrong to the plus or the minus.
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BTV accepts this: Rafaela, Dugo, Walter and Jordan for Lopez, Soler and Berti (Soler as a salary dump who can play LF for the Sox in 2023.) We then sign Bogey or Correa and a couple very solid pen arms and are still way under the tax line- enough to sign Nate or Kluber and a catching upgrade. 1. Berti RF 2. Devers 3B 3. Story 2B 4. Correa/Bogey SS 5. Kike CF 6. Casas 1B 7. Soler LF 8. Dalbec-Hosmer-Valdez-Arroyo-Refsnyder DH/Bench 9. McGuire/Wong SP: Lopez, Sale/Paxton (count as one), Whitlock, Nate or Kluber, Bello, Pivetta RP: _____, Houck, _____, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, Crawford/Wink/Mata/Brasier/Taylor/German/Politi
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I was just thinking that naming a one for one player might make more sense- maybe someone valued a little more than Mayer is - like... 66 Logan Gilbert (5 yrs of control) 64 Freddy Peralta (4) 61 Zac Gallen (3) 57 Max Fried (just 2 yrs) 57 Shane Bieber (just 2 yrs) 51 Christian Javier (3 yrs but worth less than Mayer on BTV) .
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Other than carry-overs from this year's Rule 5 list, here are some of the newbies that will be eligible in 2023's Rule 5 Draft: Jacinto Arredondo Rivaldo Avila Bradley Blalock Maceo Campbell Allan Castro Juan Chacon Casey Cobb Nathanael Cruz Kelvin Diaz Jordan DiValerio Shane Drohan Juan Daniel Encarnacion Jose Garcia Jhon Garcia Jhostynxon Garcia Alexis Hernandez Graham Hoffman Lyonell James Robert Kwiatkowski Chih-Jung Liu Blake Loubier Matthew Lugo Yorberto Mejicano Jose Mendez Henry Núñez Luis Perales Railin Perez Ronald Rosario Cesar Ruiz Johnfrank Salazar Reidis Sena Karson Simas Cesar Soto Joey Stock Nate Tellier Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jeremy Wu-Yelland
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I think, by opening day, we will have a roster where most baseball prognosticators pick us as a probable wild card team. How we get there is the 90 million dollar question.
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Even after the Beni trade, I thought we'd see Renfroe in LF and Dugo in RF. I was one of the few that wanted Kike in CF, not 2B, from day one.
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I don't think Alcantara is a good name to bring up. We'd trade Mayer and Rafaela for him in a heartbeat and the Marlins would be criticized for accepting just those two.
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I've been saying for a long time, our best chance at greatly improving our rotation is by trade. I still feel that way. It's not just about our history with Pedro, Schill, Beckett and Sale: it's about not spending so much on the next Price or Lackey.
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I totally agree, but it is a dice roll. In no way am I comparing Duran and Downs to Mayer and Bleis, but we could/should have traded them before that "one more year."
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I'm not saying this is the best class I've ever seen. I don't believe it is. The Betts, Bogey, Devers, Vaz & JBJ one jumps to mind. A few from the Theo years, too. My point was more about the quantity with some decent quality attached. I named over 20 players that could have a positive contribution in 2023. Yes, more likely 8-12 might, and some could suck, so badly, they wipe out the plusses by the others. I get that.\ Maybe it's just the complete disaster our farm has been between the Devers and Bello promotions that has me wide-eyed. I like the class coming up, right now. I think we have 3-4 solid prospects and enough sleeper prospects to put the odds of 2-3 of the secondary tier doing something special at more than 50-50. I'm thinking 7-8 will leave us feeling real good ab out by season's end. Since we have about 6-8 high need areas, and should fill some by additions, I'm optimistic about 2023, even if we don't go "all in." (Not optimistic on being a top 4-5 contender, but odds on faves to make the playoffs with just some decent additions.)
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Good points. Other than getting a solid SP'er via trade, I think this might be the best we can expect to happen: 1 from Nate or Senga 1 from Kluber, Heaney, Lugo, and maybe Wacha or Strahm as a starter. To me, this essentially make 2023 a punt season. Nothing else we could do would make me think we're a top contender, even if we sign Correa, Nimmo and a couple solid pen arms, which ain't happening.
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Most of that was from atrocious defense and being forced to play 1B, when it was obvious he was a butcher, there. His meager + O bWAR in 2022 (+0.4) keeps hope alive he could stick, somewhere, as a DH, but certainly he did not fulfill the hopes he had at the time of the trade. Nobody can say we won that trade, unless you can claim we signed Renfroe with the money saved, but that is a stretch and dubious reasoning. The solace is that we can look back and say that no way Beni would have led us to greater things, beyond maybe a few more wins in lost seasons. The 2021 team was better with Renfroe not Beni.
