moonslav59

Agreed. I heard an interesting point made on the radio down here about how the Astros don't give up too early on their young Latin American pitcher prospects like some teams seem to do.

Wilyer Abreu was considered, by some, to be the better of the two prospects we got for Vaz. Enmanuel Valdez is closer to ML ready. They also had Tucker after Springer left. Notice they don't trade many of their stars, they lose them to free agency. Correa, Springer, Cole, Keuchel, Morton and others.

Notice how those major farm additions were made from 2011-2016 or 2017. It takes time to see the results of farm building. Yes, the jury is still out on Bloom and his farm system building. Many of the next prospects coming up are DD additions. It will be quite some time before we see the full results of Bloom's influence on the farm. It looks pretty good, on paper, but nothing is a sure bet. Bloom has also made plenty of trades for prospects- weakening the big club to improve the longer term odds of success. We haven't seen any Yordan Alvarezes, yet, but he did acquire a lot of far-away prospects with decent upside potential. Many of his ML ready or near ML ready prospects acquired have not wow'd us, at all, and that is fair game. He did steal Whitlock from the Yankee farm, and guys like Kelly, German and Wink may turn out to be helpful in 2023- maybe even Enmanuel Valdez will, too.

Those high picks did help, but they also had their share of hic-ups in drafting, including losing several picks over the cheating incident and picking Mark Appel & Brady Aiken with two of the 4 straight number one picks they had from 2012-2015. No doubt these first round picks nailed it: 2011 Springer 11th 2012 Correa 1st 2015 Bregman 1st 2016 Tucker 5th They also traded for Yordan Alvarez before he even played one game in the minors. IFAs include Altuve, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Urguidy. Javier was a minor league FA signing in 2015. Hunter Brown a 5th round pick in '19, and Jeremy Pena a 3rd round pick in '18. The current Astros GM, James Click, who became their GM in 2020 got his first MLB job with the Rays thanks to a recommendation from Chaim Bloom. He has made some key moves, but much of what the Astros have now was inherited. Bloom inherited a much different team, farm and system. Astros current budget situation: AAV (Tax Dollars) $25M/1 player option Verlander $23.4M x 2 Altuve $20M x 2 Bregman $19.2M x 6 Y Alvarez $17M x 4 McCullers $15M x 2 Pressley + opt $8.5M x 1 Neris ARBs left: 4 Dubon, James 3 Tucker, F Valdez, Javier, Urquidy 1 Stanek Pre-ARB L Garcia, C McCormick, J Pena, H Brown and many more

And also Springer and Cole. It is a pattern, and their pattern works.

My prediction, as of now (not my wish list)... We stay under the tax line in 2023. We extend Devers with the start date of 2024. We sign Dansby Swanson to $110M/5. We sign Jameson Taillon to $60M/4. We sign Mitch Haniger to $44M/3. We sign Rafael Montero to $25M/3. We re-sign Matt Strahm to $9M/2 We trade Houck, Rafaela & Wikelman for Pablo Lopez (accepted on BTV.)

Well said, and the flip side highlights just how difficult it is to win when you don't have a deep farm that is yielding core players or providing trade capital to fill some key, high need slots. When you look at the significant prospects we have called up or traded since the Devers call-up in mid 2017, a context becomes apparent to anyone willing to look deep enough at the team situation. It's nearly impossible to build a consistently winning team when your farm gives you, basically just Houck and Dalbec in 5 years. The good news is, that all seems to be changing with the mid 2022 season callups of Casas, Bello, Kelly and quite a few on the immediate horizon.

Depend on free agents "to get over the top." Many teams don't even try to get "over the top," and hence don't depend on free agents much at all.

When we add the four on the 60 day IL to the 40 (Sale, Taylor, Houck & maybe Cordero), we'll have 43. Bye Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Strahm & Pham- that brings us to 37. Add Rafaela #38 Add Walter #39 Add E Valdez #40 Add T Ward/ Subtract Add Abreu/ Subtract Add FA1/ Subtract Chang Add FA2/ Subtract C Hamilton (or RHern) Add FA3/ Subtract Cordero Add FA4/Subtract Ort Add FA5/ Subtract Brasier Next (Trade or DFA?) Seabold RHernandez (or C Hamilton but not both) J Reed E McGee Hosmer

I just pointed out there is no big league team without the farm. It wasn't meant to contradict the vice versa.

No, I fully understood your point. Of course no AAA teams play in MLB, so cannot win a MLB ring, but every single team that won a ring did so because they had major contributions from the farm. That was my added response to your point. In the context of the current Sox team, we cannot really expect to compete until we start getting meaningful contributions from the farm, and when judging the effectiveness of our current GM, the context should be applied to why we aren't having parades in November and when judging whether we think the farm is improving, or not. A good farm does not just build itself. While the success of Bloom's farm (and leftovers from DD's) is still speculative, we can view the building of the farm as looking very good, okay or bad, so far. To me, it looks way better and way deeper than 3-6 years ago. I think that has to be part of the total grade we give Bloom, so far, since that was a major priority he was handed.

Certainly, this has been the rule way more than the exception. The Sox have never won without at least a couple key FA signings. 2004: Manny, Damon & Foulke (Mueller) 2007: Manny, Drew & Dice-K (Lugo) 2013: Vic, Napoli & Lackey (S Drew, Gomes) 2018: Price & JD (Moreland)

I think he makes it until our 2nd or 3rd FA signing.

By the Sox, yes, mostly. Other teams have won rings with their farm and farm arms. That was the point I was making.

Oh, you were talking about only the Sox farm never winning a WS. I guess Betts, Bogey, Devers and others were from some other farm

Example: the Astros are where they are because of their farm. When Verlander was on the IL, they had 6 homegrown starters in the rotation.

I think it matters plenty. You reset in years you are pretty sure you need a miracle to win it all- like 2022. Instead of knowing we don't have to reset until 2025, instead we have to do so in '23 or '24. To me, with the influx of prospects joining the big club, tis year and next, the chances of winning it all looked brighter for '23 and '24 than '22. Now, if the plan was to wait until 2024 to focus hard on a ring, then resetting in 2023 works, too, but I still think our chances looked brighter for 2023 than 2022 at this past deadline. We could have traded JD with $2M and reset, or Nate with about $1M, instead. I get the point about still thinking we could win. Had everyone comeback strong and we had traded JD only to miss the playoffs by 1 game, we might have been pissed, assuming JD hit well the last 2 months. (Lots of ifs.)

It is very clear, farm teams win many championships. The Astros may be the next example.

I never like the "playing it halfway" approach, but it seems like we end up doing just that, more often than I like. I'd have felt a lot better about our future had we just unloaded enough to reset.

I understand why Bloom did (not) do what he should have, and the returning players was a solid reason not to, but IMO, we were toast in mid July.

At those dollars, I'd look to trade for a solid pitcher. If I had to, I'd sign 1-2 from... 1. Manaea 2. Wacha 3. Taillon

I totally agree and not just in hindsight. The '22 team had a way different feel to it than '21's.

All but Verlander are homegrown SP'ers. Take that farm building naysayers!

Bet all you guys wish he was back on the Celts.

Think of how great our farm would have been had we traded those 26!