moonslav59

So, he didn't get 7 years or $20+M as some reports said he was seeking. This seems like a deal the Sox might have/should have topped. The contract has an opt out after 2025.

Pretty sure we add 2-3 more pieces, minimum, but here is how our slots might line-up, right now: 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Kike CF 3. L Devers 3B 4. R Story SS 5. L Casas 1B 6. L Verdugo/ R Refsnyder RF 7. L Hosmer/ R Dalbec DH (Verdugo could DH when Refsnyder is playing RF) 8. R Arroyo 2B (maybe at some point L Enmanuel Valdez) 9. L McGuire/ R Wong C SP1 Sale SP2 Whitlock SP3 Bello SP4 Pivetta SP5 Paxton SP/LR Crawford SP/LR Winckowski/Mata/Seabold/Walter/Murphy/Santos Closer Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Schreiber RP4 Barnes RP5 Joely RP6 Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Ort/DHern/Wallace/Fernandez

I guess nobody is expected to play past 42.

Yup. Not great, but here are our last seven 4th rounders: Chase Meidroth Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (Nathan Hickey in 5th Rd.) Shane Drohan Noah Song Kole Cottam (Thad Ward) Jake Thompson Bobby Dalbec One could say they were better than our 2nd and 3rd rounders most years.

This isn't the realistic thread, LOL. I think I'm closer on ERA than GS and IP. I think Sale, Whitlock and Bello might do better than I guessed but the others probably worse.

I'm thinking Andrus on a 2 year deal or maybe Segura for 1 year to play 2nd, and Story plays SS for one year before Mayer takes over. That allows for more money for RF (Conforto or Gallo) and SP (Nate, Senga, Kluber, Wacha) and if we go light maybe bring Vaz back or trade for a RF/SP/SS/C.

We actually lose the pick we'd get for Nate signing elsewhere, if we sign him, though. I think I like B, but I'm not sure that can be done for under $43M, I don't think we sign Swanson. I didn't even put a Correa option out there. He'd take up most of the $43M (maybe Correa & Wacha or Correa & Vaz.)

I think we add a starter, but here is what I think might happen (subject to adjustments, later) GS/IP Pitcher ERA 33/180 Pivetta 4.25 26/160 Whitlock 3.25 26/150 Bello 4.00 20/110 Sale 3.00 16/90 Crawford 4.75 16/90 Winckowski 5.00 10/40 Paxton 4.25 15/60 Others 5.75

If you had to choose from only these remaining options, which do you take? A. Senga, Gallo, Andrus B. Senga, Conforto, Andrus C. Swanson & Nate D. Swanson, Kluber & Mancini E, Swanson, Wacha & Vaz F, Nate, Conforto & Andrus G. Nate, Gallo & Andrus H. Kluber, Conforto/Gallo, Andrus & Vaz

Kiermaier to sign with Jays. Details not known.

I'd be all for signing Correa and trading Mayer for Lopez and Berti. Now, that's a team to get excited about. We might even have enough money to add a decent DH/RF'er.

What cracks me up, and I am literally laughing, right now, is the statement "Say Goodnight Dick" is exactly like taking your toys and going home, or wanting to end the discussion, right now.

That's what you always say when you know you lost the debate. Why bring it up, if you don't think it applies, now? I don't expect an answer- just a rehash of the poster's previously wrong positions- like that helps strengthen your position. Notin's point was maybe we can get by by stregthening D at SS but making up for it by adding O at DH. How does the JBJ position he held relate to this? We did not replace renfroe's offense anywhere else, and we lost Schwarber, too. It's strawman, again. How many times do you make a statement and then have to follow it up with, "Where did I ever say_____?" If the point about JBJ did not pertain to what you were trying to say, why bring it up? If it did, then you did "say it." Either way, you lose.

Without any addition at SS or RF, we'd have to play Story at SS and Arroyo/EValdez/Hamilton/Downs at middle IF. Kike in CF and Dugo/Refsnyder in RF. DH would be the off-handed RF'er with Hosmer/Dalbec (likely both will not be on the 26 at the same time.) This really brings the win total down from what the other slots gained. I'd say with no additions, our offense is little worse and the defense a little better, Maybe a push? A lot depends on the return of Story and Kike FT and the emergence of Casas at 1B. If we add just Andrus and Conforto, we will see a plus 5-8 wins from everyday players. (Total guess) No additions on the staff? The rotation might be lucky to break even, if Sale or Paxton are healthy and Bello shines. I really like Whitlock getting 25+ starts. The pen should add major wins over 2022. Maybe the pitching staff adds 3-6 wins with no additions. If we add Senga or Nate, bump that to 5-9 wins. If we add a minimum of Nate, Conforto and Andrus, I'm guessing 12-15 more wins with normal injury issues. Maybe 9-12 is more reasonable. Casas (Hosmer/Dalbec)>>> Dalec/Cordero/Hosmer Healthy Story>>> Half a Story Healthy Kike >>> A third Kike Yoshida>>> JBJ Maybe McGuire/Wong = Vaz/Plawecki Hosmer/Dalbec/Dugo/Ref/Arroyo= 2022 JD They key comes to how close we can come to replacing Bogey and will Devers have a bigger year to maybe help make up for part losing Bogey. Jansen, Martin & Joely plus a full year of Houck in the pen more than makes up for losing Whitlock to the rotation and we have a ton of addition by subtractions by losing all the IP'd by Sawamura, Davis, Diekman, Danish, Robles and hopefully replacing those by Brasier, Ort and others still in the system. To all the people saying the pen cost us so many games, let's see how right you were.

...and somehow, he knew Bloom was a bad nerd from day one.

How quickly these guys rewrite history and have selected memories. We may still be looking for our first ring in over 100 years had we not trusted nerds.

Fine, just stop pretending others are the name callers and personal attackers and not you.

You seem to totally ignore context. Did you see the roster and farm Click was handed? You do know, they let him go, too. You keep acting like DD id some miracle worker. Give him the 2019 Red Sox and the 2020, 2021 and 2022 budgets and see what he would have done. Do you really think think our record comes close to the 2016-2018 stretch? If you do, can I have some of what you're smoking?

Can you at least entertain the thought that maybe the Sox did not value Bogey as much as you and many here did? Maybe, just maybe, they value Devers or Correa more than they did Bogey or more than you or some of us do. There is some evidence that even you pointed out, earlier. You think they paid Yoshida more than what he was worth. That means they valued him more than you do and paid him more than you or some here would have. $105M was not chump change. Could they value, Correa, Swanson or Devers much more than Bogey? You thought they overpaid on Story and Kike. Why can't they overpay on someone else? BTW, I don't think the sign Correa. Others will offer grossly overpays, but I do think they value him more than Bogey-perhaps way more and would offer way more. (I just don't think our "way more" will be enough, assuming we even make an initial, let alone final offer.)

Okay, here is an attempt to be "realistic" and objective about our 2023 roster, position by position, as it compares to 2022. Granted, improving on a last place team should not be all that hard with $90M to spend. "Improving" may not guarantee getting out of last place or getting to 3rd place. I'm going to use a point system based on what I feel a consensus or objective position would be: 5 The position should almost certainly be an improvement area and likely a major improvement over 2022. (Note: if we sucked in '22 and get to average, it's a 5.) 4 The position should likely improve and near certainly should be about the same, at worst. 3 The position looks to be close to the same 2. The position looks to be a declining area with little hope of being even. 1. The position looks almost certain to be a decline and likely a major one. C: 2.5 Vaz was good with the bat in 2022. Plawecki was not. I almost gave this a 3.0 (We may add a catcher and get this to 3 or more) 1B: 4.5 I can't see how Casas (back-ups Hosmer/Dalbec) can do any worse than 2022 with Dalbec/Cordero. 2B: 4.0 Based on a reasonable assumption that Story plays more and that both him and Arroyo are not hurt at the same time as with 2022. (EValdez hopes) 3B: 3.0 I wanted to put 3.5 as Devers is reaching prime and had an August funk in '22. SS: 1.0 As of now. Stay tuned. (Hard to know if it will be Kike, Story, Andrus or whatever) LF: 4.5 I started to put 5.0, but there are doubts about how well MY's skills translate to MLB. CF: 4.0 A healthy Kike is all we need to make this a 4.0. A 2021 Kike would make this a 4.5 or 5.0. RF: 3.5 Addition by subtraction is all I have to say. (Dugo/Refsnyder platoon can maybe bring this to a 4 or 4.5?) DH: 2.5 This could be a 3.0 or 2.0 as we see Dugo, Refsyder, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo and maybe EValdez share time here in 2023. That's 29.5 for the 9 everyday positions. Avg: 3.3. This is not great, but I have to think we add something at SS and RF. At worst one significant one at either slot- likely with some offense. If we can change SS from a 1.0 to a 2.0 or 2.5 and or RF/DH up a point, we might add 2-3 points to the total and have 32/9 or a 3.6 average. Is that enough on the non pitching ledger? Now the pitching. It's hard to figure out how to compare, and this might not be the ideal way to do it, but here I go. SP going by GS'd (ERA+ in 2022) >> projected 2023 GS and grade 33 (92) Pivetta >> Pivetta 33 (3.0) 26 (98) Hill + 5 (38) Seabold>> 33 Sale + Paxton (hard to grade, but 3.5???) 23 (127 Wacha) + 9 (122) Whitlock>> 32 Whitlock (3.0) 20 (109) Nate + 11 (90) Bello >> 32 Bello (2.5) 14 (72) Wink + 12 (77) Crawford + 4 (127) Houck 4 (134) >> 32 Crawford/Wink/Mata (Paxton?) for a 3.0 That brings the rotation to about a 3.0 before any additions. Maybe I'm being biased by assuming better health than we will get but I like Mata, Walter and think Crawford or Wink will do better- not both. We only need one. The pen should be vastly better, despite moving Whitlock to the rotation. Maybe having Houck in the pen, FT and with a defined role can almost cancel out the loss of Whitlock from the pen. Addition by subtraction on losing Diekman, and if we DFA Brasier and less or no IP from some bad RP'ers we can gain a lot here. 2022 Relief IP and WHIP 65 Schreiber 0.985 >> 2.5 Schreiber- projecting regression 62 Brasier 1.300>>> 4.5 Jansen 51 Sawamura 1.421>>> 4.5 Martin 48 Davis 1.708>>> 3.5 Joely - pure guess 45 Strahm 1.231>>> 2.0 Kelly - hard to match Strahm's 2022 43 Houck 1.131>>> 4.0- more IP from pen 40 Danish 1.289>>> 3.5 Taylor 40 Barnes 1.437>>> 3.5 - more IP and a turn around 39 Whitlock 0.788>>> 1.5 more pen IP from Crawford and Wink 38 Diekman 1.487>>> 3.5 Mata/German 28 Ort 1.765 >>> 3.0 Ort 25 Robles 1.581 >>> 3.5 German/Walter/Murphy (16 Bazrdo & Valdez, 14 Kelly, 10 Familia, 25 others) Overall maybe a 3.5 or 4.0 average, assuming no additions and no major health issues

To me, a Corea signing and not letting Devers go is more than enough to at least muffle the irate fans enough to hear themselves think. I'm not sure if Swanson & Senga/Nate does the same trick I won't be surprised to see Senga, Conforto/Gallo and Andrus with a Devers extension mixed in there somewhere. We reset, this year and splurge in 2024. The Devers extension might be enough to keep NESN subscriptions level.

...and Theo, Ben and DD relied heavily on nerds in the back room.

Who wouldn't choose a place where a $40M winter spending budget feels like a 3 year budget with the Rays?

No, but he did lose Ortis's salary to retirement and had the good fortune of the Devers call up that season, who helped more in 2018. He essentially lost Pedey, too (in 2017) and didn't really replace him until the 2018 deadline with Nunez & Kinsler. Had he been a big spender in 2017, maybe we win back-t-back. Had he been allowed to bring back Kimbrel and spend more in 2019, maybe we go back-to back, there. 2019 was not a reset, but it felt like one.

In this context, planning to "splurge" in 2024 or 2025 and building up the foundation to be timed to match that time period, maybe some recent moves make more sense. BTW, extending Devers fits into the window planning very nicely, too. (A bogey extension, not so much.) Notice Yoshida's age and the fact that his contract is all prime years or maybe one year out of 5 slightly past prime, depending on what ages you consider "prime" for a batter.