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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I'm only repeating my opinion s much as you do. I've even said my opinion is based solely on speculation. How is that trying to force it into becoming thought of as fact? Again, I agree. If they knew the market was going to jump, but did not think Bogey was worth a long term commitment, for whatever reason, they should have signed him and traded him. Big mistake. I'm agreeing with you on this. My points about what I think their reasoning was.
  2. moonslav59
    That's a separate point, and I agree, fully.
  3. moonslav59
    I agreed some was luck, but provided some info that showed he pitched better, too. It wasn't all luck. How much does a hard hit % drop of almost 9% affect one's numbers? And, that 9% did not move to medium hit: it moved to soft hit. 9% less hard hits, and 9% more soft hits, makes a significant dent in BAbip. Right? BTW, it was you who disagreed with me.
  4. moonslav59
    True about any new player to the league. Matsui was special. He started with the Yanks at age 29. He had just come off 4 straight 1.000 plus seasons in Japan and a .996 career OPS in Japan. Yoshida will be 29 to start the season and has a .957 career OPS in Japan. Last 5 seasons: .956 in '18 .956 .966 .983 1.007 in '22
  5. moonslav59
    This was about signings and non signings.
  6. moonslav59
    That surely was part of it, but winning does not always translate to better attendance. How much of the drop was due to the league wide drop reasons? Hard to know.
  7. moonslav59
    Just give me a .380+ OBP and .460 SLG (due mostly to BA) and I'll call it a big win. I'm thinking we might see .400/.480/.880 with a floor of maybe .360/.420/.780.
  8. moonslav59
    Can we wait and see who we end up with and how well Bogey does over the next 6-7 years, before we say they "failed," for sure. I totally agree, it looks like they did, but again, I think they never wanted Bogey at market value, even when that value was was less than what he got. Maybe they will end up being proven right. It's not like big signings have a great track record.
  9. moonslav59
    I said I think it hurts club morale, but I saw no issues with the 2021 clubhouse a year after letting Betts go. Did you?
  10. moonslav59
    We know it wasn't from great D behind him. Some obviously came from: Hard hit% 42.7 '18 39.5 '19 35.5 '20 39.0 '21 30.3 '22 Soft hit: 15.9 14.5 15.5 10.8 18.9 Okay, he had some luck, but he also helped himself get better numbers. Kluber had better hard hit and soft hit numbers, even better than his career numbers, so maybe he comes back to reality, next year, too. I'll take Kluber over Wacha, so I'm not sure why we need to do this. Boredom, I guess.
  11. moonslav59
    I value FIP, but not as much as fangraphs does. bWAR 3.3 Wacha 0.7 Kluber (2.1 2021+2022) I'm not so sure Kluber matches his own 2022, either, but I agree, Wacha has a worse chance at duplicating '22. OPS Against in 2022 .693 Wacha .729 Kluber 36 points is not chump change. Lord knows, Wacha did not have great D behind him, either.
  12. moonslav59
    Even if we add no more OF'ers, every OF position looks to greatly improve on offense while the corner positions get worse on D. LF: Yoshida CF: Kike (150+ games?) RF: Dugo/Refsnyder (platoon?) Last year, every OF position had an OPS under .695 and 90 OPS+. Overall, it was .676. (86 OPS+)
  13. moonslav59
    Even if he's 100% following the script, he'll be the scapegoat just as Ben was.
  14. moonslav59
    The only FA solution, yes.
  15. moonslav59
    It seems like the years are worse than the contract totals are.
  16. moonslav59
    I've said all along, the best way to get a quality SP'er, this winter is via trade. I'm not sure we will part with the prospects needed to get one, and I doubt we do, but we still have $40M, so maybe we get a high priced SP'er or take on some salary with a lower priced SP'er, like A Garcia with a MIS SP'er. We do need a RF'er who bats RH'd and has some upside on offense and power. (.766 since 2017, averaging 24 HRs per 162)
  17. moonslav59
    No doubt, and that has to hurt team morale, but nothing some winning can't change, quickly. Who is the clubhouse leader, now?
  18. moonslav59
    The Sox did not think he was worth even $180M/7 or $170M/6, last year. If they did, he'd probably be here, right?
  19. moonslav59
    How many times will it take, before people stop believing any GM? Also, they could be dumb enough to have actually believed he was their #1 priority at $170M/6 or thereabouts. (I'm not saying that is the case. I think they lied through their teeth from day one. They never wanted Bogey at market prices. Never.)
  20. moonslav59
    He should be, but I'm not sure he out pitches the 2022 Wacha. I'm fine with signing him, and I'd rather have him over Nate, who might cost more. I was hoping we might add a 1/2 SP'er not a 3/4 with hopes of being a 2. Maybe we sign Kluber and trade for a 1/2, but trade who?
  21. moonslav59
    Could we sign a RF'er and use Dugo at DH and 4th OF'er? (Ref is the 5th OF'er/DH?)
  22. moonslav59
    They don't say he's a bad fielder, so he'll be in LF for a while. I can't see us going with Dugo and Ref in RF, but their splits make for a good platoon. (Cora has refused to platoon Dugo for a long time, despite his poor splits.) Dugo vs RHP .812 career .746 '22 .894 '21 .876 '20 Ref vs LHP .728 career 1.005 '22 .784 '21 2020-2022 .815 Dugo v R (27th among OF'ers with 1000+ PAs v R) .800 Ref v L (49th among OF'er with 220+ PAs v L) Last year, our RF OPS was .661. Our LF OPS was .694 (added Yoshida) Our CF OPS was .671 (maybe a healthy Kike changes this) The OF D did not get any better, except maybe CF, but the O surely should.
  23. moonslav59
    I keep hearing about our "clubhouse," like it's a given it has been great or even good up until losing Betts and/or Bogey. Where was the clubhouse leadership, this summer? I'm not saying it was bad or was a reason we lost, but I'm also not assuming it was something we had and just lost. The clubhouse looked great in '21, basically a year after losing Betts.
  24. moonslav59
    Devers Forevers or Adios Devers. Agreed.
  25. moonslav59
    Why does everyone seem so sure spending on Bogey was the essential signing? Look, I agree. I wish we'd have signed him a year or two ago. I wish we'd sign another big player (or trade for one,) but I also want us to be good for a long time, and I think that priority has been number one, and still is. We are not signing anyone to more than 1 or 2 years, who will not still be in or near prime when his contract ends. That's a good strategy when you feel you do not yet have the foundation to make a "splurge" signing or two. I thought, before this winter, we were very close to that moment. Maybe the Sox top brass thinks that is 2024 or 2025. I can, at least understand why they think that.
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