moonslav59

I'm not trying to bash players on the way out or already out, but when we say names like Bogey, JD and Nate, we think of the 2018 or 2021 Nate, the 2018 and 2019 JD and the Bogey who hit 25+ Hrs with 100+ RBIs. If you are going to take the win total from 2022 to work from and who we need to replace, you need to look at the 2022 Nate, Bogey and JD. True, replacing the 2022 Wacha, Hill and Strahm will not be easy. I think we replace Strahm and then some with the pen, and $40M does not seem like enough to replace others, but IMO, it does not look as bleak as you see it. Also, we are replacing JBJ, Cordero, Diekman, Robles, Davis, Sawamura and hopefully less games from Dalbec, Plawecki, Duran and Brasier. This what we are replacing from 2022 and what we might be replacing them with: The Good: Nate (109 IP/4th most and 3.87 ERA and 20 GS) We don't need to replace 33 GS'd, but this will not be easy. Replace his 20 GS with 20 more from Whitlock. Wacha (127 IP/2nd most and 3.32 ERA in 23 GS) Very difficult to replace, and as much as I like Bello, he will most likely not match those numbers, but he should be all that bad at coming somewhat close. Hill (124 IP/3rd most and 4.27 ERA in 26 GS) It's hard to envision 26 starts by Sale, but that might be our only hope replacing Hill and making up for the downgrade from Wacha to Bello. Another hope would be to add a solid SP'er better than Hill was in '22 Strahm (45 IP/14th most and 3.83 ERA) replaced by Jansen- big plus Bogey (631 PAs/2nd on team and .833 OPS- his OPS+ did not dip but his RBIs took a massive dive) You can't replace Bogey, in kind, without signing someone like Correa, and that ain't happening. Let's agree that we take a major hit at SS with someone like Andrus or Segura at 2B and Story at SS. JD (596 PAs/4th in PAs with a .790 OPS- his OPS+ was his worst since 2013, not counting 2020 and his RBI total was less than half of 2018's total.) Call me crazy, but I think we can come close to replacing him with a platoon that can match .790 without any additions, and I won't use Yoshida at this slot to plug in- see JBJ/Duran & Co. Vaz (318/8th most and .759 OPS) + Plawecki (175 PAs/15th and .574 OPS) Call me crazy, again, but I think the improved defense fro McGuire and maybe Wong can come close to making up for the offense lost by Vas, although Plawecki's OPS brought or catching OPS down quite a bit. Maybe we add a catcher, but I don't think it is a high priority. I accept the idea we a re stepping down, slightly, at catcher. That's 7 decent to very good 2022 players we are replacing (I'm counting Vaz and Plawecki as one player, if you don't mind.) Now, look at the okay of bad we are replacing, along with the expected less and more PAs from many players still in our system: Pitching: IP 62 (9th) Brasier 5.78 ERA (DFA or reduce his IP) replace with Joely. 54 (12th) Davis 5.47 ERA replace his and some of Brasier's IP with Martin- big plus 51 (13th) Sawamura 3.73 ERA replace with Martin 40 (15th) Danish 5.13 ERA replace with more IP by Crawford or Wink 38 (17th) Diekman 4.23 ERA replace with Kelly 28 (18th) Ort and 25 (19th) Robles replace with German and Mata Others like Seabold, Bazrdo, Valdez and Familia (about 50 IP) repalced by more IP from Crawfor and Wink or Mata/Walter/Murphy Does this make up for the differentials above on pitching? Everyday Players: (I linked Plawecki with Vaz in the "good section.") PAs 402 (5th) Kike .629 OPS with something closer to the 2021 Kike and maybe 550 PAs 396 (6th) Story .737 OPS with something like the pre-2022 Story and 550+ PAs 353 (7th) Dalbec .652 OPS with Casas- should be a major gain on O and D. Add most of Dalbec's PAs and some of Cordero's to the 95 Casas had and you get to 550+ PAs 290 (10th) JBJ .578 OPS with Yoshida - a major gain that could wipe out the O loss at SS 275 (11th) Cordero .697 OPS with Casas and Yoshida- major gain on O and D 235 (12th) Pham .672 OPS with, yes Yoshida again. It's 525 PAs between JBJ and Pham.- Add some from Cordero and you get to 600. 223 (13th) Duran at .645 can be made up with more PAs from Refsnyder- another plus. It remains to be seen who has their IP and PAs slashed or increased, but we can assume most. It doesn't look as dire as some think it is, to me, and we still have some moves to go.

There are enough solid RH'd bats available via trade to help the line-up. I do think our biggest two needs are a 1/2 SP'er and a 3-4-5 RH'd solid bat, preferably with HR power. FAs is not the only way to spend $40M.

The funny thing is, it seemed Old Red used management quotes to support what he felt their ideas were than anyone here, so I can understand why he's more shaken than almost everyone else. GMs lie or fudge more than just about anyone else in baseball. How would saying, "We don't think Bogey is worth as much as other GMs and many fans think he is" going to work out? They say what they think needs to be said, and many times it is disingenuous. Should we really be this surprised?

I don't think that was a lie, but I don't think it meant compete for a ring every year, either. We were competitive in 2021, and IMO, Bloom made more moves for the good than bad before 2022, and more importantly we were better positioned for improvement after 2022 than after 2021- based mostly on having a bigger budget and having way more prospects becoming ML 5eady than 1-2 years ago. They thought they were on a steady path towards longer term success while also building up the foundation of the current team to expect continued success. How many posters projected we'd miss the playoffs, this year, let alone finish last? We we liars, too? They and we said what we believed. Not many foresaw a significant decline by 90% of the returning vets that did not spend long times on the IL, nor did we foresee so many players being on the IL for long periods of time, except for maybe Sale & Paxton. Bottom line: we failed in 2022. We can explain some reasons why, but I truly think the Sox top brass and most of us, thought we'd compete for the playoffs and maybe advance a round or two. Maybe 2021 was a fluke or outlier, and we were never that good. Maybe they and we were fooled by their success, but I do think the depth of our 40 man roster has continually improved since 2020, and the amount of ML ready and near ML ready decent to very good prospects has grown to a level I have not seen in a very long time- maybe more in quantity than quality, but we do have a lot of promising young players, right now. There was reason to be optimistic and make statements reflecting that optimism. Quite a few posters saw it differently, and the 2022 results only fed their frenzy. Maybe in the long run, they will end up being right. I hope not, but certainly much of the on paper success of Bloom's tenure may never materialize or won't to a level large enough to keep us competitive for an extended period of time. I do think that has been the plan, all along, and that it was not a lie to say they wanted to try and be competitive along the way.

His plan is to build up a foundation to support and extended and consistently winning team, and that may not happen soon enough for you and many fans. I'm not happy watching us lose, either, but I see a very clear and obvious plan that does not involve getting studs at every position at the expense of the long term- like DD did. I get it. You and many hate this plan. Bloom could, if JH allowed it, trade away Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Mata, Rafaela, and fill all those major need areas you just mentioned and create a team you and all of us would be very excited about, but we'd be where we are no in 3-5 years, once again. Again, you may not like the plan, but to me, it is very clear and understandable. To answer your specific questions, here is my take: SS: we sign someone like Andrus or Segura (Story to SS for one year) as a bridge to Mayer. Totally fits into the clear plan. C: we add a non splash catcher (Vaz or via trade) of go with McGuire and Wong and see if one plays into our longer term plans (Hickey might be long term solution) Big bat: I agree, Yoshida is not enough, even for an apparent "bridge season." Maybe we sign Conforto and Gallo and pray. Both will likely get one year deals, so this, too, plays into the "plan." Last, but most importantly, IMO, is SP. We have $40M, but who is left? Rodon, Bassitt, Nate and Kluber + Wacha. I don't think any fit into what I see is the "plan," but maybe this is the one area we just bite the bullet and hope whoever we add is still productive in 2024 and beyond. I'm not happy that it looks like we are punting to 2024. I have said and thought this winter was the time we can make the push, "Bloom's legacy moment," and I'm not happy, overall, with what has happened, so far, but there is still $40M to spend, and we could choose to reset, next year. A Devers extension and solid pitcher addition would get me closer to thinking we have taken another step forward towards the plan of sustainable and long term winning based on constant farm infusions and targeted FA signings, when needed. On paper, it's a good plan, but it might take more time than any of us wanted to see it come true. It may never come true, as well. Notice hos the best prospects Bloom has traded in 3 years are Aldo Ramirez and Jay Groome. Compare them to who we have added and the ones we kept, like Houck, Casas, Bello, Mata, Walter, Rafaela, Perales and Paulino to what DD did, and you can see a major shift in philosophy and "plans." Again, you might not like this plan, but I think it's clear the farm became the top priority, and not as a mechanism to trade for studs.

Nobody said it, but they fail to realize that spending in one area means not spending in another. "We went over the tax line anyway, so we could have done both." Could and would is the key and flawed mindset switch, IMO.

Okay. I think DH was not a high need area, either, but it was above LF in the pecking order. $18M is about 20% of the assumed winter spending budget. IMO, these were our highest need areas: SP1 or SP2: still open SS: still open RF: still open Closer: Jansen Solid set up: Martin Pen depth: Joely C: still open DH: Yoshida (or Dugo, if we fill RF) or DH/RF or DH/1B (and trade Dalbec and/or Hosmer) SP3 or SP4: still open My biggest beef, so far, is we spent $50 of the $90M, counting the Kike extension, and filled one of our top 4 need areas (CF.) We have just $40M left and 3 major needs. We can trade to fill one or two, but that goes against the long term future priority. It looks like Mayer is going to be our next significant SS. I'm fine with that. I'm fine with signing Andrus or Segura (move Story to SS for just one year) to bridge to Mayer. This might leave $30M to fill the RF and SP needs. My guess is they go with Dugo and Ref in RF- perhaps ending up with a platoon, which on paper looks very nice- on offense, but that really makes their priority for RF defense and the whole JBJ fiasco look even worse- not that they care a bout their image, anymore. Senga is now off the board- some I think had more upside than Nate or Kluber + Wacha. Is Rodon a meaningful target? To me, he is not "the guy" you choose to overpay. Without parting with Mayer, what kind of ace can you trade for without pulling a DD and parting with 3-4 of our top 6 or 7 prospects? I'm not even sure we can get one without giving up Mayer. Maybe, next year, if Romero, Bleis and Yorke see their stock go through the roof. I'm not all that optimistic we pull off any deal or signing that wows me, but maybe JH will be moved by the intense disgust Sox Nation seems to be feelin, right now, and feels the need to do something he didn't want to do just a few days ago. He may have to force Bloom to do something he's against doing.

I don't agree on Betts. I do think they lied on Lester, but every GM does this sort of thing. They can't bad mouth a star just because they don't value them like the market does. Yes, they can be more truthful, and I wish they would. I don't think any fan would be offended, even if they disagree, if a GM or team spokesman just said, "We offered _____ what we felt was a very fair contract based on how much we value him. We wished he would accept it, but he did not, so we have to do what is best for the team and part ways." It's hard to say that before looking for a trade, because teams now know you are desperate to trade him, and may think they can hold the GM hostage and give less in return, so maybe that statement is made at the time of the trade. I seriously doubt these guys really believed what they were saying near the end. It was all for show, and they should now realize nobody is buying that kind of crap anymore.

I meant to say "hollow" not "hallow," and I agree. I do think they liked Betts more than Bogey and their offers show that, even more so when adjusted to inflation, but they did not like him as much as what Betts felt the market value was, at the time. I hated the Betts decision, but I felt like they did what they could, offered a pretty fair deal, and did what needed to be done when he turned it down. This whole Bogey thing was a ruse from day one. It sours me, too. If they do the same to Devers, my camel's back breaks, too.

Maybe it wasn't a look of shock; it was a look of realization that he and top brass were about to be subject to "heavy" lambasting by the media and fans. Their ruse about to be exposed. I'd turn white, too.

They have to, now, assuming they feel the same a bout him as they did with Bogey. They have to see how they handled Bogey turned out worse for the fans and their image than with the better player, Betts. Or, are they really that dumb?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, EFFF YOU!

I'm in total agreement here. Do they really think they are fooling anyone? I know taking the word of nearly any GM is foolhardy, but they need to realize their strategy is having the opposite affect they are hoping for. Fans are not dumb, and maybe Sox fans are less dumb than any. With the expansion of social media and access to so many commentaries, fans can see right through these ruses. Losing Bogey like this makes it worse than if they'd just come clean a year ago and said, "We just don't think he is of the value his agent thinks he is. We love him, but we need to do what is best for the team's future by trading him, now." Yes, fans would be pissed, like they were with the Betts trade, but this is worse.

How many here, knew the minute we signed Story, the odds of keeping Bogey were cut in half or not more? Many felt that way the minute the reported $30M one year addition to that current contract was given. I know some here might think I didn't like Bogey, weird talking about him in the past tense, but I did- and a lot. I has serious issues with his defense, and I think a guy like Bloom did, as well. They did not want to pay him like a great SS, because they did not see him as a SS going forward. I doubt the Padres do, too. I totally get the whole argument about how "WE COULD HAVE GOTTEN HIM FOR $__________!!!" (Fill in the blank.) I totally agree. My point has been, all along, that at any point you choose to estimate his current market value, the Sox never felt he was worth whatever that price and years were. It's really very simple, if you believe that. What evidence, other than the obligatory and courtesy statements made by Sox brass to placate rabid Sox fans on how much they love Bogey and "want him back" shows they ever felt he was worth market value. Look at their actions not their words. Not even the recent words that are saying, "We meant what we said about him" crap. Maybe, I'm wrong. My opinion is speculation. I know that. I felt that even when they made that final offer to Lester, they really did not want him, and made it just low enough, they knew he'd say no, That's total speculation, on my part, but under Henry, this team sets a price on the value of their own players and very rarely counter with a significantly higher offer (like Lester's) or let sentiment cloud their reasoning (like Schilling's one year pat on the back final contract.) All their sentimental extensions or re-signings seem to be, not coincidentally, one year deals, except maybe the Lowell one. Posters are free to pick apart anything the Sox brass does, but to me, any criticism should be over a disagreement on how the Sox valued Bogey vs how the poster valued him, and not these what if we signed him earlier. I'm not trying to force anyone into my way of thinking, but that criticism rings hollow, to me and maybe only me. o If Bloom was a fortune teller, and saw these prices about to shoot for the roof, here's my big "what if:" he'd have extended Bogey at whatever it took- say $180M/7 or even $200M/7 or 8, and then he'd have traded him at today's market prices, because he still doesn't think he's worth even $160M or $170M/6. That's my belief, and by the way, I do think he's worth $170M/6, but that's my max, even in today's inflated market.

The only beef I have over signing Yoshida is that LF was not a high need area. If we end up trading Dugo to fill another need in a decent way, that beef goes away.

But, hey, we fixed the pen! Wasn't that all we needed to do, according to so many, here. This could end up being a fine exemplar of how robbing Peter to pay Paul ends up leaving a team no better off. Yes, we could have signed Jansen, last year, but would we have been any better off with him over Wacha and Hill? We'd have needed to start Whitlock or Houck more or given Wink and Crawford 15-20 more starts each- or both! It's a balancing act.

It's happened, even with Henry, but just nowhere near this extreme. He's making the Rangers, Dodgers & Padres look like the Rays.

Maybe after they win a ring, he slows down.

Man, the excitement over this signing last what? Like 17 minutes?

When you hit over .300, they care. It's b een a very remarkable "tool," and he hits the ball hard- just not for a lot of homers. Think of the big Fenway RF and no shift. This guy may lead the league in BA and or Doubles. A slugging percent over .500 the last 2 years, thanks Bell, is a great "tool." I'm not sure why so many people are choosing to be so pessimistic. I understand he is hard to project or translate to MLB, but it's not like there is no history of success with batters from that league. I'm going the optimistic route with MY and hope I'm not wrong.

It seems very obvious to me. Don't confuse not understanding long term planning with not liking it.

I'm with you (and Bloom.) I'm for sustainable winning and not building just windows. That takes time and patience.

It's likely something DD would do (and also trade away Bleis, Rafaela & Mata), but in a few years from now, we'd be right back where we are, now. Dream, now: nightmare, later.

Or, trade Mayer, Dalbec & Walter to KC for Brady Singer & Michael Taylor

Would this highly unlikely change of events call off the fire bloom brigade? Sign Carlos Correa Trade Dugo for Urquidy Trade Mayer, Wong, Duran and Dalbec for Sean Murphy and Ramon Laureano 1. Yoshida LF 2. Story 2B 3. Devers 3B 4. Correa SS 5. Murphy C 6. Casas 1B 7. Kike CF 8. Laureano RF 9. Hosmer/Refsnyder/Arroyo DH SP: Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Urquidy, Pivetta (Paxton, Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold. Walter) RP: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Joely, Taylor, Brasier (Kelly, German, Mata, Murphy)