moonslav59

Not me, either. Like you said, "who knows?" That's why it's called a "scenario." (One of many)

Looks exactly like the minimum one should expect from your DH.

Too unpredictable.

Depends on his health.

Not likely, but they would fit in the $100M AAV budget scenario. That would then bolt the pen to the highest need area in a second.

I'd take Swanson due to an upgrade in SS defense and being a year younger. His contract would end at 3 years younger than Bogey's in my second scenario.

Yes. It's hard for even good DHs to get above a 1 WAR, so I'm not sure that should be the bar set for determining, if he ends up helping us, or not. If he gives us a +0.5 WAR as a platoon DH and back-up 1Bman, it's an improvement over Dalbec and Franchy at 1B and DH. JD gave us only a 1.2 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR in 2022.

OH! No you DIH-ENT!

$4M or less is not a big gamble, hence it's low risk almost by definition, but maybe we are just arguing semantics. Perez has been a pretty consistent innings eater- another reason he was a lower risk than someone like Paxton. He also had plus bWARs in 2020 and 2021, so the risk of a 0.0 or negative WAR was not high- another reason to say "low risk."

Yes, he was a "low risk." That was my point, since his 2020 (1.1 bWAR) and 2021 (0.5 bWAR) were not really failure seasons. He did have a higher reward possibility than others getting $4M, and in hindsight- he was a high reward. I do think the "risk" is tied to how much money you are "risking." We gambled on Paxton. It wasn't a real low risk, since we paid him more than Perez and the risk was greater for a complete zero in the reward column. He was a high(er) risk- maybe high reward type signing, IMO.

Pretty close for me. How about Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $140M/6 (same as Story's deal)?

Is there no hope Hosmer can give us medium reward?

I was talking about the Perez signing before 2022. (Low risk- High reward)

If it comes down to Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $160M/7, who do you take? They both reach the same age for the final year of the deal.

Yess, Bogey opted out, but maybe some talk show clown convinced Red, he's still under our control.

Again, I know we have plenty of money to fill all 4-5 high need slots. I was responding to someone who said the pen was the top priority. I stated why I felt other slots were actually higher need areas based on who we had there, now. How is that overanalyzing? To me, your response to my simple post was overanalyzing. Of course, we will address all 4-5 slots, or we better. My point was about which was weakest or weaker. It wasn't some deep dive analytical point made. I simply listed our current players at each slot and the eye test says the pen is not the weakest, right now. I'm not sure why that set you off.

I'm responding to what is our #1 priority. I'm fine with listing 4-5 slots as tied for #1, but IMO, the pen is in better shape, right now, than SS, RF and the rotation. That's all this means. Stop overanalyzing! (LOL!)

We know we need serious help on the pitching staff. It's not clear exactly which areas need the most help until a few questions are answered or known- some may not be known, until the season starts, so we have to plan for various answers. I count at least 10 big Q's: 1. Will Whitlock, start, closer, be a relief ace or be a set-up/long man, again? 2. Will Houck recover from his back injury? 2B. Will Houck close, be a set-up man or start? 3. Can we count on Schreiber to be a solid set-up man in 2023? 4. Did Barnes do enough in 2022 to give us serious hopes he can help, significantly in 2023? 5. Is there any hope Taylor can return at pre 2022 levels? 6. Can Kelly or German (or both) morph into RP'ers we can count on in higher leverage situations as the season progresses? 7. Can we count on Crawford or Winckoski to fill the long relief/spot start role, effectively? 8. Just how good will Bello be in 2023? 9. Can we count on just one from these kids to shine in 2023- Mata, Walter, Ward, Murphy? 10. Last, but not least, what the hell can we expect? "Freakin'" Chris Sale or Chris "Freakin'" Sale?

True, and many might be okay, if he said the same about Houck, as long as he beefed up the set-up men, especially if Whitlock is not in the pen. Nobody would be fine with Bloom saying... "Downs will be our starting SS." "Refsnyder and Duran will platoon at corner OF." "Winckowski will be our 5th SP'er."

I'm not saying any are pretty, but which slot looks ugliest? IMO, it's not the pen. Hence, the pen is not the clear #1 priority, although we all agree it needs serious attention.

Bringing up Beni's GG in LF does not mention the downgrade we'd have in RF with Dugo v Nimmo, but signing Beni at a fraction of Nimmo's cost is not a bad idea. We could also sign Brantley for LF for cheaper and shorter than Beni or Nimmo... a bridge to Rafaela, maybe.

I'd make it simpler: SS Swanson 2B Story LF Dugo CF Kike or Nimmo RF Nimmo or Kike

I'd say filling Bogey's shows, finding a RF'er and at leat one SP'er to replace wacha, Nate & Hill are just as high a priority as the pen. Our pen could look like: Houck Whitlock Schreiber Barnes Taylor Crawford Kelly/German looks as good or better than... Arroyo and Downs at SS Duran/Refsnyder at corner OF Winckowski/Seabold filling a SP slot or two

Papelbon was already an established closer in 2007, but he wasn't before 2006. Uehara was not considered a closer at the start of 2013. Nobody said he was "another Papelbon" at the start of 2013. Of course, we'd all like to see someone resembling a lock-down closer on the 2023 roster, but I'd be happy going into 2023 with Montero, Fulmer, Houck, Strahm and maybe Whitlock in the mix. (I'm not counting out Barnes, either, and maybe Taylor can come back as a decent set-up guy, too.)

IMO, having a whole bunch of qualified RP'ers in our pen is more important than obtaining one lockdown closer and a smattering of decent set-up guys..