moonslav59

A trade is likely to get more than a measly comp pick.

Career numbers (not very big sample sizes) Whitlock as SP'er OPS Against .587 1st PA (81 PAs) .901 2nd PA (72 PAs) .573 3rd PA (11 PAs) (As RP: .615 first PA (425 PAs) & .361 second PA (20 PAs) Houck as SP .504 1st PA (180 PAs) .647 2nd PA (164) 1.017 3rd (30) (as RP: .588 in 1st PA (195) and .423 in 2nd (25)

It might be closer to $90M, and instead of 8-12 slots needing help, like the past 3 winters, we might get by with 4-6 significant additions.

I did not mean by opening day. I think we start with Hoz-Dalbec or a new addition. If we signa RF'er, Refsnyder has to be a consideration, too. Arroyo is a decent hitter, as well. His splits are nearly even.

I'd prefer Brantley, but even his moderate contract cost could be used to upgrade other possible FA signings.

If he never plays for us, he'll agree to a trade. We could also throw $500K to him to waive the NTC.

I also think someone like Enmanuel Valdez surprises Sox Nation and wins the DH slot, outright. Also, bench guys like Arroyo or Refsnyder may end up wrestling away the job or platoon from Hoz or Bobby Dee.

I'm not really a fan of that DH platoon, but I think the money saved at DH can and should help us get better players at the other 4-5 high need slots. I'm not a driver of that wagon, but I'm on the edge of the tailgate.

He won't be DFA'd: he may be traded.

Yes, and personally, I don't see anything wrong with setting a top bar and not budging from it. The lowball offers to Lester and apparently Bogey seem more like outliers when compared to how many ex-Sox players who left to free agency or were traded right before free agency that ended up not doing all that well, afterwards. That being said, I hope we make a final and fair offer to Bogey and Devers. If Devers says no, we should then tell him he may be traded. I hope the comp pick is worth losing Bogey over, but we may end up signing Swanson for less, and maybe he does better going forward or the comp pick balances out losing Bogey and gaining our next SS.

...and they'll blame Bloom, if the budget is restricted, again. (This time, he will deserve criticism, if we fail, badly.) One difference, this winter: we can reset and still spend over $90M, and we have less high need areas to fill than the last 3 winters, thanks in large part to the long-awaited infusion of young and cost effective players from the farm. Bloom should be able to build a playoff team and reset, at the same time. This is his firepoint winter and may very well set his legacy in stone... good or bad.

We can get him to sign an extension that begins in 2024, which may help us reset in 2023.

I agree that re-setting in 2023, not 2024, makes more sense, and we still can spend a lot, this winter and stay under the tax line. When it comes to signing free agents, this winter, I see 5 major slots to fill: SP1 or 2, SS (assuming Story stays at 2B & Kike in CF), RF, RP, RP. Secondary priorities might be another pitcher, catcher and DH/1B. With over $90M to spend, we should see a major difference from the last 3 winters, where we had less money and more high need slots to fill. This, alone, should change what we should see. If we assume the re-set comes in 2023, I'd think about setting these guidelines to FA signings: 1. Don't make signings based on the ETAs of Mayer (SS), Rafaela (CF, SS, 2B) and other top prospects. If we end up with a bottleneck at a couple positions, trades can help other areas out. 2. Any FA signing longer than 2 years should only be made, if we think the player will not be in serious decline from 2024 and beyond. In other words, avoid long term signings of anyone already at the point of decline or very near it. 3. Look to sign shorter term deals at higher AAV, so we aren't handcuffed in 2024 and 2025, when we are more likely to go "all in" or near "all in." 4. Focus most of our resources on the big 4 or 5 high need areas, and move away from the previous, but needed at the time, quantity vs quality mentality. We need a top SP'er, SS, RF'er and 2-3 solid pen arms. (One can be a SP'er, if Houck stays in the pen.) I know these are mostly obvious overgeneralizations, but I'm hopeful we can build a solid 2023 team that looks poised to be even better in 2024, when the budget shackles can be removed.

Dear God, NO!

Pitching is certainly a top priority. I think trading for an ace makes more sense, due to the the cost and uncertainty of just about every FA pitcher on the market. I agree, we need to add at the very least 3 solid pitchers. Now that Whitlock has been told he will start, the focus shifts more to the pen, but we still need an ace or solid 1/2 type.

The 13 man Red Sox MLB staff before any winter additions- my take: (Assuming the impossible: 100% good health on opening day) SP1 Sale SP2 Whitlock SP3 Bello SP4 Pivetta SP5 Paxton LR1 Crawford LR2 Winckowski Closer Houck SR2 Schreiber SR3 Barnes SR4 Taylor SR5 Kelly SR6 Brasier/J Reed ML Ready or Near Ready on the Farm Mata Walter TWard Seabold Murphy German Ort Wallace Politi Thompson Shugart DHern

Before any additions, this may be the rotation, as of now: 1. Sale 2. Whitlock 3. Bello 4. Pivetta 5. Paxton/Houck (Big leap of faith on the health front.)

If this report is true, it looks like the Whitlock decision has been made, while the Houck choice has not been made: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-planning-to-use-garrett-whitlock-as-starter-in-2023.html The Red Sox are planning to deploy right-hander Garrett Whitlock out of the rotation in 2023, general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). O’Halloran added that Tanner Houck could get a look as a starter as well, although that decision hasn’t yet been made. With Whit, we told him to plan to be a starter and we expect him to be a starter,” the GM told reporters. “With Tanner, we said something similar. We talked through that he will go through the offseason planning to be a starter and we’ll build him up as such. But there’s a little bit (less) definition around his role and he knows it could go in either direction.” O’Halloran added the decision to move Whitlock to the rotation “was a little bit more clear and definitive” than the situation with Houck, whose role figures to be determined in part by the course of the Boston offseason.

If this report is true, it looks like the Whitlock decision has been made, while the Houck choice has not been made: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-planning-to-use-garrett-whitlock-as-starter-in-2023.html The Red Sox are planning to deploy right-hander Garrett Whitlock out of the rotation in 2023, general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). O’Halloran added that Tanner Houck could get a look as a starter as well, although that decision hasn’t yet been made. hit, we told him to plan to be a starter and we expect him to be a starter,” the GM told reporters. “With Tanner, we said something similar. We talked through that he will go through the offseason planning to be a starter and we’ll build him up as such. But there’s a little bit (less) definition around his role and he knows it could go in either direction.” O’Halloran added the decision to move Whitlock to the rotation “was a little bit more clear and definitive” than the situation with Houck, whose role figures to be determined in part by the course of the Boston offseason.

If this report is true, it looks like the Whitlock decision has been made, while the Houck choice has not been made: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-planning-to-use-garrett-whitlock-as-starter-in-2023.html The Red Sox are planning to deploy right-hander Garrett Whitlock out of the rotation in 2023, general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). O’Halloran added that Tanner Houck could get a look as a starter as well, although that decision hasn’t yet been made.

Updated: The 2023 Red Sox Budget We have no way of knowing, if the Sox will reset the tax budget this year or in 2024, but the pattern seems to indicate it will happen, next year or the one after. Here are the tax numbers (AAV) in $millions: 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 10.0 Kike 9.4 Barnes 4.7 Whitlock 4.0 Paxton 1.2 Refsnyder (78.0 sub total) Arb Estimates: 16.5 Devers 5.5 Verdugo 5.3 Pivetta 3.0 Arroyo 2.5 Brasier (non tendered?) 2.1 McGuire 1.1 Taylor (if not healthy, non tendered?) 1.0 Cordero (non tendered?) 0.8 Chang (non tendered?) (38.0 sub total) 6.0 0-3 yr players 1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool 2.3 40 man roster players in minors 16.5 player benefits (17.5 sub total) $134M Total Estimated The tax line is $232M, so if the Sox spend right up to the line without going over, we'd have a winter AAV spending budget of about $97M with no non tenders.

It sure feels that way much too often with Bobby Dee. The guy did have an .819 OPS after his first 2 partial seasons. 497 ABs .244 33 94 (62 XBHs) It just does not feel like this .754 career OPS guy after his first 900 PAs in MLB deserves another look, let alone a long one. Many felt the long look in 2021 was way too long, but he surprised many of us. No such luck in 2022.

I'd love to see us get a real DH, or even upgrade with someone like Brantley, but who knows what the budget and 40 man roster will look like by opening day. It might just take Hosmer and Dalbec to reach the 2021 DH OPS in '22. I listed others as options in case one or both fail. I also think trading for a DH at the deadline, assuming we are in it and need a DH, should be less costly than trying to add a pitcher, SS or legit OF'er. Who knows? Maybe Bloom crosses us all up and gets a catcher and DH and we skimp in the OF or rotation. Maybe we don't skimp anywhere.

You troll!

The thing is, he's not the 40th. He did show slight improvement on O, this year, but his time here should be short.