moonslav59

Soxprospects has both Sheriff and Tapia making the 26, although neither are on the 40. They also have Alfaro in AAA, but he can bolt, if he is not added to the 40, so something has to give, for any of these things to happen. The bottom 4 on the 13 man staff are Crawford, Winckowski, Kelly and Sherriff Possible 40 man roster replacements for Sheriff or others: Mata, Walter, Ort Will start on IL: JRod, Mills, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock The bottom 4 on the everyday player list: Wong, Chang, Refsnyder, Tapia Possible replacements: Wong> Alfaro (if added to 40) Chang> Valdez, Hamilton (not going to happen) Refsnyder> Duran, Rafaela (not going to happen) Tapia> Duran, Rafaela, Dalbec 60 Day IL: Story Starts season on IL: Mondesi If we add 1-3 from Tapia, Alfaro and Sheriff, who gets DFA'd or placed on the 60 day IL? JRod to 60? Mills to 60? Trade someone? Dalbec, Brasier, Ort, Murphy, Hamilton, Valdez? DFA?

It sure seems this way. That's why I said "I'd DFA..." and not "He might be...)

Hope it's just one rehab start, and he joins the rotation for the Sox on the second turn.

He's .855 vs LHPs (.696 v R), but that is the short end of a platoon, and how many teams platoon 1B, anyway? How valuable is a short side DH platoon? Now, .696 leaves some room to get to a decent level, but he's not young, either. To me, 1B like him are a dime a dozen and easily picked up off waivers or via trades with minimal return. I'd still DFA Ort before him, but I'd rather have Tapi and Alfaro on the 40 than Bobby Dee.

I'm wondering if he might be a rare late ST'ing trade candidate, so we can make room for Tapia and Alfaro- both who seem more needed than a poor fielding 1Bman. I know, I know: selling low is a no-no.

Ok, 20th string was an exaggeration.

I totally agree, but many good and even great MLB pitchers started out shaky. Others, like Houck, never looked all that great in the minors, but burst onto the ML scene doing well from day one.

I'm thinking maybe one of the 2 could turn into a solid #5 SP'er, but maybe not in 2023. The odds of this happening may be under 50% but may be close to 50-50. More likely, one may become an okay to decent long man out of the pen. The odds of one filling this sort of role is probably better than 50-50.

He certainly is, as Red likes to call them, "suspect," but it was his first MLB season, so some slack may be called for. He looked pretty good in AAA (.653 OPSA with 62 Ks in 61 IP) This may be his "make or break" season.

Pretty telling- how we came so close with our 20th string pitching staff.

Agreed. Both Wink and Crawford will likely get chances to earn their stay. Their numbers were not great, last season, but pitchers often need at least a year or two to establish themselves and make a stand. Of course, many fail to find a foothold. I'm not overly optimistic about either one, but I do still think both have a decent chance to find a niche, and maybe the odds are better than 50% that one of them makes it. It's hard to assign a percent to any unproven pitcher, but I like the odds than one or two of our bottom SP'ers will make a mark in MLB. Maybe not this year, and I guess what one defines as "making a mark" is likely subjective. Let's say having a season over a 1.0 fWAR (like Nate in 2022) or 1.5 (like Pivetta and Wacha in 2022) is "making a mark," what are the odds each of these guys reach that level at some point in their careers. What percentage would you assign? Beyond Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck... As SP'ers only... 45-75% ??? Bello 35-65%??? Mata 30-60%??? Walter 25-55%??? Crawford 20-50%??? Winckowski 15-45%??? Murphy To far away to estimate: Perales Wikelman E R-C (Just an off-the-cuff guesstimate.)

He might be one of the top 5 fifth starters in MLB, but we have to keep him there to be so... LOL! As a #4 he might be top 15. As a number 3, he's likely a bottom 10-15. Some teams have pretty lousy rotations. He might be a #2 on some teams.

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

Yes, I knew you were just talking about ST'ing. I was just adding a separate observation. I have often wondered, if it's a warm weather thing, too, but JUL is warmer than SEP. He seems to not like it cool or too hot. .535 APR .613 AUG .693 May .750 JUN .940 SEP .983 AUG Maybe it just takes him 4 months to find his stride.

But sucks in April and the first third or more of May. 2021: .558 to May 12th (108 PAs) /.867 afterwards in 345 PAs 2022: .453 to May 12th (91 PAs) / .721 afterwards in 262 PAs

Bobby Dee goes deep. Does make the 26?

Others not spending improves our odds of winning. Apparently, that is his bottom line.

Ah yes, Beni's one really good year.

It sure would be nice to see LF be a top 5 position for us. When is the last time we had a top 3 LF'er in WAR?

And Yoshida in away games, either.

I saw the word "like." "Like" another SS who no longer plays plus D? I missed nothing. I gave my opinion on not wanting a minus defensive SS replacing Bogey. I'd have been okay with Iggy over an oft-injured Mondesi, but I'm okay with Duvall in the line-up. I'd prefer Kike in CF, but maybe Mondesi can make that happen more than we expect.

Agreed, but it puzzles me as to why the major shift in perceived winning strategies? They went out of their way to improve the D, last winter by trading renfroe for JBJ and signing Story to play 2B.

Maybe we can put JRod on the 60 and add both. (Trade, IL or DFA one other.)

Iggy's D at SS is highly suspect, at this point in his career.

It was concerning, but remember, he was new to every pitcher and many of our best pitchers were out of action. Most PAs with McGuire: 186 Pivetta (.840 OPSA) 120 R Hill (.800) 110 Crawford (1.034) 67 Bello (.592) 67 Brasier (.902) 60 Schreiber (.980) 52 Barnes (.620) 46 Ort (.882) 45 Wink (.905) 41 Davis .839) 35 Seabold, 31 Danish, 30 Sawamura, 29 Bazardo, 26 Familia, ONLY 21 w Whitlock (1.000), 19 Kelly, 19 Strahm, 14 German 10 DHern. Total 1028 PAs (.874 OPSA) 574 (more than half) were with (our best) pitchers not named Pivetta 186, Nate 0, Hill 120, Wacha 0, Houck 0, Bello 67, Schreiber 60, Whitlock 21 and Strahm 19. Top PAs w Vaz: 456 Pivetta 262 Hill 215 Whitlock 202 Wacha 174 Houck With Plawecki 303 Nate 251 Wacha 149 Wink 124 Crawford 101 Hill