It will be interesting to see how this winter winds down. Is JH hearing the rumblings enough to realize something needs to change?
If we still stick to the idea that the budget restes, what are our chances?
What are our options?
We could decide to make a push for higher competitiveness in 2023 by trading away a top prospect or two, but that compromises the idea of building a sustainable system for years to come.
We could try and hit gold with the $40M or so we have left, but we need some major additions. We can all argue over how many or which areas need the most help, but here is my take:
1) We need a solid SP; an ace would be best, but a strong #2 might due. Are we willing to trade for one? Is Nate or Kluber good enough? Is Senga out of our price range due to other high needs?
2) We need a solid RH'd bat for the line-up. We have some positional flexibility, if we are willing to move Story or Kike to SS and/or Dugo to RF. That makes 4 positions, 5 if you count DH, where we can fill the offensive needs while filling a positional need, at the same time.
SS
RF
2B
CF
3) If we fill #1 and #2, we can probably get by with covering DH with a mix of bench players, but we still need to fill one more slot, even if mostly with a defensive player. (SS or RF makes the most sense, defensively, as Kike in CF and Story at 2B are big pluses on defense.)
3 big needs. $40M to spend. Trade possibilities, if we are willing to pull the trigger. I know I've beaten a dead horse on the idea of taking on Avisail Garcia's contract, so we can get Pablo Lopez for less than it would normally take to get him. Together, they will make about $19M AAV. That is only half of our remaining budget and we fill 2 positional slots (SP and RF/DH.) I would not say Garcia fills the big RH'd batter need I listed, but he may bounce back to help the O. The other $20M would need to be spent on a hitting SS at $20M per (not Swanson) or to go with Andrus and try to find a RH'd DH that combined make $20-22M. Is that doable?
There are a few combinations of trades with the Marlins, I think might be enough to fill all our needs and keep us under the tax line:
Pablo Lopez ~$5.3M (2nd of 3 arbs) 119 ERA+ from 2020-2023 and 3.48 FIP
Jon Berti ~2.5M (2nd of 4 arbs) RHB best at 2B & SS but can play OF, too. Has speed and a .335 OBP
Avisail Garcia $13.25M x 3 (RHB RF/DH) He's a salary dump. He's a negative defender. He sucked on O, last year (65 OPS+), but a 96-99 OPS+ from the last 2-4 years, combined
one from...
Garrett Cooper $3M in last arb (RHB- 1B/DH) Maybe a change of scenery will help him. 113 OPS+, last year and 120 from 2020-2022.
Jorge Soler $12M x 2 (RHB LF/DH) A salary dump, for sure, but a 99 OPS+ since 2020 is not beyond hope.
BTV Values
-26.0 Garcia
-20.9 Soler
+5.0 Cooper
+7.5 Berti (I'd give more than this value)
+38.7 Lopez
So, let's say...
Lopez, Berti, Garcia and Cooper (Total BTV: 25.2)
BTV accepted: Rafaela (15.1), Verdugo (6.7), Walter (5.6), Wikelman (1.4), Downs (1.1) and Dalbec (0.8)
or
Lopez, Berti and Soler (Total BTV: about 0)
Give 'em Duran, Downs, Dalbec and Verdugo.
This doesn't solve every problem, but we'd still have money to spend and all our top 4 prospects and young players (Bello, Casas, Mayer, Bleis)