moonslav59

If you look at the Sox ring seasons, it's no coincidental that nearly all of them included very few starts by the 6th or 7th starters: GS 2004: 33 Pedro & DeLowe 32 Schilling & Arroyo 30 Wake 5 by 3 others 2007 32 Dice-K 31 Wake 30 Beckett 24 Schillin 23 Tavarez 11 Lester 11 by 3 others, including Buch who would have been top 5. 2013 33 Lester 29 Lackey & Dempster 27 Doubront 16 Buchholz 10 Peavy (acquired mid season) 18 by 4 others 2018 33 Porcello 30 Price 27 Sale (Yes, Chris Freakin; Sale!) 23 ERod 11 Pomeranz & Eovaldi (acquired mid season) 14 by 4 Non Ring Years GS beyond top 5 33 by 6 SP'ers in 2002 23 by 5 in '03 18 by 5 in '05 (30+ starts by Clement, Arroyo, Wake & Wells) 50 by 9 '06 30 by 6 '08 37 by 6 '09 23 by 3 '10 36 by 5 '11 32 by 4 '12 54 by 6 '14 (4 SP'ers traded) 38 by 7 '15 29 by 5 '16 26 by 5 '17 35 by 10 '19 21 by 11 '20 (60 gm season!!! and Sale & ERod not counted as a top 5'er!) 25 by 5 in '21 46 by 7 in '22 Note: these numbers do not reflect the true nature of non top 5 GS'd. Take 2017 as an example:Fister was 5th.

20 for all 3? Man, pessimism rules, here.

How about this BTV approved deal: Dugo, Duran, Murphy & Dalbec to SFG for Yastrzemski (3 yrs) + Crawford (1 yr) We have a better RF'er and a bridge SS who can play D, and might hit well again.

Would you really prefer Wendle to Rojas, and why?

I'd give more than Duran for Rojas.

There is now talk Rojas is on the block as Chisholm moves to SS. I'd prefer Rojas, even if he slightly more costly. The team would be better with a SS added and not a 2Bman.

There was also the added promise of returning key players from the IL. It seemed like half the team went on the IL in July and mostw ere expected back, including Paxton and Sale. I get why there was still hope, but to me that was the best excuse- the feeling the team could do better with everyone back, and not based on how the team looked at the time. I didn't get the sense Sox fans were all that excited about our chances in late July 2019 or 2022. the feeling was much different in 2021. To me, it was over a few weeks before the deadline. We lost like a million series in a row and showed no energy or spirit. I know, I know- real empirical proof. It was more of a gut feeling, but I felt we were toast in '19 and '22.

There was also Miley He had a tougher time with pen arms, except for Kimbrel, although even he turned into a pin & needles pitcher at the end. Thornburg Carson Smith Mujica Ogando Abad Layne Still, the guy put together a fine staff with big checks and trade capital.

Okay. I don't remember thinking he was a major addition, at the time. Wasn't it like 2 weeks before the deadline? I don't think we gave up anything considered promising. Worth a try, though. They did nothing at the deadline, despite being 59-50.

By "well before the [2019] deadline" do you mean Nate at the 2018 deadline? Or are you really calling Cashner the best available based on a couple months of stats?

What's your over/under on games started by Sale+ Paxton and Sale+Paxton+Kluber. Mine might be: 32 Sale (18) + Paxton (14), and maybe that's wishful thinking. 54 Sale (18) + Paxton (14) + Kluber (22) If we can get 54 from those 3 and 32 from Pivetta, that leaves 74 from... 28 Whitlock 26 Bello 20 Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford, Winckowski., Seabold (Houck?)

Many were pissed we only got Schwarber, Robles, Davis and later, Iggy and Shaw in 2021, too. That season had a winning feel to it, to me. Just my opinion, but I didn't feel it in 2019 or 2022. I respect others for their views and reasonings. I just disgareed, then, and still do now. If I knew our owner was willing to spend and pay lux taxes like others now seem to be willing to do, I'd think differently. Until he does, I'm going to keep trying to weigh the balancing act between the here and now and the long term future outlook. I realize, I may be close to alone thinking this way, but I plan on living at least another decade or two, and winning in 2024 or 2028 is just as important as 2022 was.

I see us as being in a way better place- future wise, than we were 1, 2, 3 and even 3.5 years ago. To me, that was the top priority, whether we liked/like it or not. The farm looks way better, on paper. The 40 man roster depth looks better than the 2019 team, in terms of future outlook and projections based on age. The budget, as you pointed out, is almost totally rid of deadwood contracts, and Sale may be able to bring us to zero deadwood with a good 2023 season. I'm not saying this to distract from the pain we all feel about losing Betts and Bogey, and maybe even back to Lester. I'm still more hopeful about Devers than many seem to be, and I don't blame anyone for expecting him to go, next. I have nothing to base my hope on, expect that I do n ot think JH is this dumb. If we trade Devers, I'll be very pissed. It still won't change the fact that our farm should start helping the big team in ways we haven't seen since Devers in 2017, and really, he has been the only major addition from the farm since Bogey in late 2013. Beni and Houck we good ones, but not on the level of Betts and Bogey. Once guy since 2013. That's 10 years. This has to be viewed as a major reason we have just 1 ring since 2013. Even the 2018 ring was largely a result of prospects added in 2013 or earlier and several FAs and costly trade acquisitions.

They did, then, but it turned out, that was the beginning of the shift from using the farm to reload the big club or to spend bigly on additions meant to "get us over the top." It might have also been when DD pushed too hard for making moves and or spending money the top brass was not on board with, and the split was made. The whole shift actually began slightly before Bloom was hired.

The 2018 rotation and starter depth reached a point where they felt the need to trade for Eovaldi, at the deadline. The starting 5 was meant to be: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod and Pomeranz The depth, before Nate, was Brian Johnson, Steven Wright and Hector Velazquez. William Cuevas and Jalen Beeks each started a game. Beeks was traded for Nate. Pretty good depth, but I like the depth we have, now more, and it certainly looks deeper if not higher quality- for what that is worth. 2019 saw the same starting 5 back, although with much worse numbers, and Nate only started 12 games. The depth was Velazquez, Johnson, Cashner and Weber/Lakins. Yuck! 2020 was a yuck of a rotation and depth, especially since Sale and ERod missed the whole short season. The 5: Nate, Perez, Godley, Mazza, Weber. The depth was Houck, Brewer, Hart, Kickham, Triggs and the deadline acquired Pivetta. 2021 was supposed to include Sale for more than 9 GSd with Nate, ERod, Perez, Richards and Pivetta. That's actually a nice 6, if healthy. The depth was a capable Houck, but then Peacock, Seabold and Crawford. I like this year's depth more. 2022's rotation was not thought to be all that great in March. Adding Wacha and Hill did not wow anyone, but they both did pretty well. Again, Sale was supposed to give us a half season and maybe Paxton, too. Neither did. The expected 5: Nate, Wacha, Hill, Pivetta and Sale/Paxton. The depth was Crawford, Whitlock. Houck, Winckowski and Seabold with Bello rising more quickly than some expected. 2023, now has Whitlock and Bello in the 5, along with Pivetta, Kluber and Sale/Paxton hopes, again. I'm counting those 6 as 5 and thinking having the 6 does not add depth, but the depth still looks very promising. Not proven, but promising: Mata Crawford Walter Winckowski Murphy Seabold (Drohan/Santos) Last resort: Houck

What are the odds Sale, Paxton and Kluber are all ready to start their next turn, at the same time? Factor in lesser chances that Pivetta, Bello or Whitlock may miss time, here and there, I doubt we'll have to use Bello in the pen or send him to AAA for more than a week or two. We may want to limit his innings, anyway and could even "piggyback" with someone like Paxton for a while, or we could go with 6 starters for a while, like the Astros did, but I'm not keen on that idea. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but my guess is a SP'er will be on the IL or even the 60 day IL for more than 66% of the season, and with the idea of keeping Bello's IP under 140 or so, I doubt we face these choices being discussed, very often, anyway.

Crybaby fans who stop coming to games or paying for NESN or just threatening to would lead to losing money. YES, I get it, and that was likely a big reason they did not do even a mini fire sale (beyond trading Vaz.) Losing fan interest affects the bottom line. Do you think JH felt the team would lose money, if they had a fire sale or mini fire sale? I do, at least temporarily, and to me, the main reason for that would be pissed off fans. I think the two things are related. I thought that was one of several points being made, last deadline- along with the sliver of hope not being extinguished and other lesser reasons.

I've always felt like Houck's profile fits the pen more than the rotation. I just hope they stick with set roles, all year, even if someone else gets hurt. We have other options to fill in if a SP'er or RPer gets hurt. I actually really like our pitching depth more than in a long time. 5 SP: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta Depth: (before needing to use Houck) Paxton, Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy, Seabold (Drohan/Santos) 8 RP: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Joely, Taylor, Brasier Depth (options remaining) Mills, Kelly, German, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Ort, DHern, Winckowski, Seabold (Paxton, if all 6 SP'ers are healthy) then Whitlock, maybe, if not Bello or Pivetta.

Good point on when "the right guy" is available, but say we felt a guy like Price was exactly what we wanted and needed after 2020, but the influx of farm help was not due for 2-3 more years. Why sign a guy who will be post prime when the window is reached? Now, signing a guy like Devers would be a different story, as his prime will overlap the projected window. On Whitlock, I wanted him in the pen, too, along with Houck, but once we added 4 Rp'ers and only 1 SP'er, despite losing our best 3 from '22, I'm fully on board with Whitlock joining the rotation. If he does well, he's more valuable giving us 150-180 IP than 80-110.

The only reason I care about going over or not depends on if the plan is to spend bigger the next year (by staying under this year) or by going for glory, this year, because it seems worth it, knowing it will likely force a reset in 1-2 years, afterwards.

It really was an absurd choice, and it stifled what I thought was always their #1 priority: the future of the team. I realize a balance has to be maintained by keeping the here and now team relevant enough to keep fans in their seats and paying to watch them on TV. They missed on both fronts.

Okay. I get that, and yes, pissing off fans is one way to lose revenue. How did that work out, though? Fans happy, now?

You related it my comment on the extra $1M in bonus money during drafts. If that was not intended, I missed the point. Sorry. My point about having a fire sale was only partially about not going over the tax line, which would have made it easier to go over in 2023 and improved our draft positions and draft bonus money, I fully expected we'd get something very useful for Bogey, Wacha, Nate, Strahm and Vaz, and maybe something of use from Hill. I did not expect much for JD, at all, unless we paid a chunk of his salary, which we could have done on several players to improve return and still gotten us under the tax line. The main reason was to acquire players and prospects with more team control. While the tax line was also important, I never said it was the major goal was to save JH a boatload of money in salaries. He may have chosen not to sell off a bunch of fan faves so as to not upset fans to the point that they stopped coming to games or watching them on NESN, not just in 2022 but for 2023, too. Yes, he cares about the business part of the team, and much more than I do. I tend to think winning is good for business and long-sustained winning would lead to more money making in the long run, but I assume they know what is better for their bottom line than I do, and just how much of a priority that is. Seeing how pissed fans seem to be, now, I can see why not wanting that to happen in August could sway their choices, but that looks like a joke, in hindsight, because I think fans are more pissed, now than had they traded bogey and others to better the team in 2023 and beyond. I can't imagine it being any worse than it has been the last couple weeks. I admit, I'm biased and seemingly in a tiny minority among fellow Sox fans to want our extended future to be as strong as possible, even if it means sacrificing, today (and yesteryear.)

I found E Valdez's Away splits, and I think I know why MVP did not want to provide them: .996 w Sugarland, including 9 HRs in 22 games Home: .773 OPS w 1 HR in 16 games

Again, I don't see myself as "worrying" about JBJ's added cost, but I do think JH might have decided to spend a little less this winter, because of JBJ's deal helping put us over the tax line in '22 and the $8M buyout check Henry had to write out, this winter. Maybe not, but who knows? Either way, I don't worry about it, I just accept it likely matters to JH and the 2023 spending plan, even if just a little bit.