moonslav59

Apparently, Sox scouts have longed for Yoshida for years, and the timing matched up better with JD's departure than Schwarber's timing did, but your point is well-taken. Who do we not sign, if we added Schwarber? Wacha, Hill and Strahm don't even equal his AAV. With Bogey going, the Story signing makes more sense than Schwarber.

They do seem to have a way of placing value that differs from other teams. If the Yoshida reports are true, it proves their formula is not short-changing everyone, and they did offer more for Turner, Jansen, Martin and Kluber than other GMs. They've always seemed a bit tough on their own stars as they reach prime.

I have no idea. Niko's sample size in POR, this year was rather small, but I do share your concerns. BTW, he still had a .366 OBP in POR. It was his slugging that took the deeper dip. The K rate rise is surely an issue.

Still, nothing longer than 5 years, and only one deal longer than 2. Since the Price signing, nothing has been longer than ... 6 Story 5 Sale, Yoshida, JD 4 Nate, Porcello, Whitlock 3 Bogey (opt out), Vaz Am I missing anyone?

I think Kavadas does, because he walks, a lot. A high K rate is much more acceptable, if your OBP is high enough. Binelas is close to the point of no return for me.

It might have been a combination of that SS issue along with age projections and not wanting to go beyond 6 years. I still think letting Betts go was a bigger let down, and because of Devers' age, letting him go would be worse. The Lester fiasco got worse when they ended up signing Price to way more and longer than what Lester would have taken. If they truly felt he was worth $162M/6 a couple weeks ago, that seems to be less than what most of us felt he was worth, even if he was mov es off SS in 1-2 years.

We do have a history of not extending our own players at top dollar- all along. The biggest extensions were AGon, Porcello and Beckett. Bogey's was a big one, but the opt out after 3 might still make it top 4, but not on the scale of some other extensions after figuring inflation. Henry has gone through patches like this, before, so it's hard to know. If we was planning on selling, soon, why sign Story and Yoshida?

You did say... If I ran a business and hired away a competitors operating manager and my business got worse and my competitors got better, it wouldn’t take me years to figure out I made a huge mistake. if money is still being made, what is the business mistake?

Exactly, and there is also a chance they did not think he was worth $162M/6 in March, but adjusted it to inflation and rising salaries and made the final offer that was higher than what they felt in March. Is that "misreading the room" or doing what most GMs do- adjust their evaluations formulas with the times and new data? Does it even matter if the reason was some sort of "misread" or a flaw in their value formula? What matters most to the fans is it appears they did not value Bogey as much as we did.

All fair points and nothing anyone seems to disagree on, but in no way an opinion on what happened afterwards or suspected reasons for all the nonaction. I gave my opinions on what I felt were the most likely reasons for all the non action. You called it "conspiracy theory" and commented with "WOW!" You regurgitate "misread the room" over and over, but give no speculation on why there were no further offers until it was too late and a mega dollar too low. You don't have to give a reason, but you could specifically explain why you think other's speculations are "conspiracy" or "WOW-"ly wrong.

I did it with Steamers a few days ago, but they did not have Turner's or Kluber's numbers. Considering how their projections are generally considered conservative, we still came out with more plusses than minuses. but the Bogey loss was a big one, and there is debate about where to put Story- at 2B or SS. If at SS, it's a loss. If it's at 2B it's even or a plus at 2B. I think they had Dever's fWAR projected as lower than 2022, which I don't agree with, but maybe some 3B play by Turner, instead of Dalbec could flip 3B to a plus by Steamer.

We still look to be about $30M short of 2022's tax line budget, but we expected a dip to get below the line, just maybe not this far under. There is still time for spending, including a Devers extension that begins in 2023 or a trade that involves taking on a salary to lessen the return needed. I'm not projecting we spend much more, but we still might. Even just signing Andrus would get us closer.

Agreed, but if you are going to talk about the Red Sox as a business, then how are they doing as a business? When JH goes to sell the team, will he take a loss? Is he losing m oney, year after year? Are his overall profits less and less each year?

I'm not all that excited about 2023, either, but other than SS and maybe a slot or two in the rotation, do you think we should improve, stay about even or get worse at each of the other 24 slots on the 26 man roster or 38 slots on the 40? Please grade one by one: Catcher .694 (Vaz/Plawecki/McGuire) vs McGuire/Wong 1B .683 (Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer) vs Casas/Turner/Dalbec 2B .724 (Story/Arroyo) vs Story/Arroyo/EValdez 3B .856 (Devers/Dalbec) vs Devers/ Turner LF .694 (Verdugo/Pham) vs Yoshida/Dugo CF .671 (Kike/Duran) vs Kike/Refsnyder RF .661 (JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Arroyo/Cordero) vs Dugo/Ref DH .763 (JD- the 2022 JD) vs Turner (Yoshida/Dalbec) I see improvement at 6-7 slots and even or maybe slightly worse at 1-2 slots. The pen looks better at all 8 slots and pen depth in the minors. That's + 8 slots, maybe it ends up plus 6 or 7. The rotation is the hardest to project and compare to mixed evaluations of our 2022 rotation. Was Wacha really as good as his ERA indicated? Was Nate really the same Nate from 2021? Was Hill really any better than any of the 5 we have for 2023? I'd be fine with saying we got worse at 2 of the five slots, about even at 2 and maybe better at one. I do think SP'er depth is light years better than 2022's. Is that enough to balance 2022 with 2023's rotation? Who knows. Again, I'm not projecting greatness, but I see a rotation pretty even to 2022. I see a major loss at SS. I see a major gain with the pen and likely gains at 6 or 7 of the other 8 slots in the line-up. What do you see, slot by slot?

Perhaps like the 2021 team, this time of winter.

How a business got to where it is matters, and sometimes it goes back farther than 1-2 years or even 3-4 years. If you want to think of the Red Sox as a business, then are they really failing on profit-making as we suck?

I've said I felt we never wanted Lester at market value, before during or even possibly with out last gasp offer that was short of the Cubs offer. I'm thinking the two cases may be exactly alike and even that last $162M/6 offer was perhaps one we hoped he would not take, but IMO, I do think they wanted Bogey at $162M, it just came too late. Before the market exploded, they likely did not think he was worth even $162M. but who knows. Certainly, I do not know or pretend to know. I'm just speculating like all of us are. It would answer a lot of questions as to why we never offered it last season. We did not think he was worth that, then.

I said that was one possibility for why another offer was never made. I never stated it as fact. I also said another reason could be they never felt he was worth an offer that might be accepted. You don't make offer you don't want the other side to take, although I do think the late offer made to Lester may have been such an offer. How does "misreading the room" explain why no further offers were made? To me, that response is a "wow." You won't give specifics, as always, and no this is not overanalyzing as my positions are a simple as can possibly be, while yours is as vague as anything.

Now, Tulane up 1, late!

The fact is there are so few facts to explain anything that was done and not done in this whole Bogey situation. We all agree the initial offer was a lowball and insulting one. We might not agree that it was all Bloom's doing or how much of an influence JH had on that offer. We all agree no further offers or counteroffers were made, at least until that reported $162M/6 offer. We are all trying to figure out why, and have come to a variety of conclusions based on what we know and beliefs or biases we held all along. Nobody can claim they are right or the other is wrong until (and if) we ever get more specifics. "Misreading the room" is certainly a viable opinion, although it is sort of nebulous and vague on what was actually misread. If they really thought they could have signed Bogey at $162M/6 and misread the market. Thats sounds totally plausible. It also does not negate what I believe happened along the way, or what others think happened. My point all along is a pretty simple one, and IMO, not even close to "overanalyzing" as Red accuses me of doing. I think the Sox, whether it be Bloom only, half Bloom and half JH or mostly JH, felt they never wanted to pay Bogey what they thought he'd accept- whether that was near market value or not. I guess if they felt he was only worth $150M/6, last off season and $162M/6 a couple weeks ago, one could say that was "misreading the room," too, bjut in a much different way than the example above. That is one reason I keep asking Red, what exactly he means by "misreading the room," but maybe the "publications" never gave details, so Red has no foundation to explain. I'd be okay with calling this "misreading," too, but again, the final evaluation of that opinion is to be determined after we see what Bogey does, and it's merely opinions, right now. I just want to know the specifics on where Bloom "misread the room," according to Red. I could be wrong, but I think he mentioned, one time, that Bloom misrepresented Bogey's value to JH, and JH went with Bloom's valuations of Bogey, and that Bloom misread Bogey's true value-making it NOT JH's fault. That is certainly a defensible position on the valuation aspect, but I'm not so sure about pulling the wool over JH and other upper management people on Bogey's value. I think the Sox have a set way to place value on players that the whole top brass involved in deciding who to sign or not knows about and likely trusts. Just my opinion, here. I'm still not sure what is so crazy about believing the Sox never felt Bogey was worth offing a deal he'd accept all along the timeline. I'm not sure how it is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy on a nonspecific "WOW!" like I can't believe you actually still think this crazy idea.

But your analysis was needed? The fact that you won't or can't answer the most simple questions leads me to believe you have no answer other than the vague "misread the room." You still have not explained why me thinking the Sox never wanted Bogey at a price he and BorA$$ would have ever accepted is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy of a "WOW!" Again, I don't expect an answer that doesn't create a strawman or just further vagueries, but keep in tune with "other publications" that are not "social media" and your much wider exposure than old narrow-minded me.

Not anymore. USC up by 11!

What is the reason he did not make an other offer before that last gaps offer after he became a FA? Tell me where I go wrong. 1. He did not think BorA$$ would accept a second offer based on what Bloom felt he was worth (maybe around $162M/6 last offseason or maybe even lower, then.) 2. He had an idea what BorA$$ would accept but did not think Bogey was worth what it would take to get to yes, and so never bothered to make a counter offer. 3. He thought going to free agency would show BorA$$ he was wrong about Bogey's FA market value and would end up settling on something around $162M/6- his final last gasp offer. BTW, it is totally possible 2 or all three of these statements are true, and personally, I think #1 and #2 are likely true. Again, you cannot or will not give specifics. It's no overanalyzing to give specificis to your position or where you think another poster is not only wrong, but wrong to the point where you call it a "conspiracy theory," whatever than means in the context of a contract negotiation. You throw words like "conspracy" and "Wow" around, like it's obvious what you mean, but then never explain it. It's like debating a boulder.

USC game is a close one!

If the Sox end up trading Casas, I will not say or brag that I was right, because I wouldn't be right (or wrong.) I never predicted we would trade Casas or even imply that we might trade him. I merely suggested it would be a way to acquire an ace other than by free agency, and it still is a way. I'm less inclined to support the idea, now that Dalbec's stock has fallen, but now that no free agent aces are left, it's the only way, other than trading Mayer, to get an ace, this winter. With Bogey gone, trading Mayer would be crazy. With Turner on the roster, trading Casas over Mayer makes more sense, but I still would not do it, unless Alcantara came back.