moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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21 GAMES at 3.4 R/G.
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Remember the "Black Holes in the Line Up" criticism? Here are some interesting numbers: All slots at .725 or lower are listed. 2018: Best Sox team ever! .607 8th slot .667 7th slot .684 6th slot .704 9th slot 2019: .616 9th .723 7th .725 8th 2020: Maybe the worst Sox team I have seen live. .638 8th .678 9th .711 7th 2021 .671 9th .674 7th 2022: .570 8th YUK! .642 9th .665 1st WOW! .724 6th 2023: .659 9th .684 7th .723 3rd WOW! 2021 and 2023 are the only 2 years with 2 slots below .723! Not 2018 or 2019.
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The worst 10 game scoring stretch I could find in April was 41 runs (4.1 per game) That worst stretch was better than all of June and our most recent 21 game stretch: 4.7 R/Gm May (122 runs/26 games) 3.4 R/Gm June (41 runs/12 games) 3.4 R.Gm since May 20th (71 runs/21 games) It's 4.3 since May 1st.
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DRS 2018 vs Pro-Rated 2023 1B + 5 Moreland -15 Casas 2B -12 Nunez -8 Valdez, -2 Arroyo 3B -11 Devers 2018 -5 Devers 2023 SS -8 Bogey -10 Kike, -2 Arroyo
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I think it has been worse than we say it is, but we’ve lucked out on not losing more games from poor D. If you count the games we lost from great D by our oops plus the ones we lost from bad D, it’s enough to maybe tie us for the last WC slot. You are looking at dWAR from B-R, which is fine, but I trust fangraphs DRS and UZR/150 more, and they say 2018 was a plus on both counts.
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Team DRS since 2004 79 '17 69 '16 64 '12 51 '14 22 '13 18 '11 17 '08 10 '18 5 '19 4 '21 2 '07 1 '20 (short season pro-rates to about 2.5) 0 '10 -2 '15 -4 '22 -26 '04 -35 '05 -15 '23 (prorated to about -37) -56 '09 -57 '06 UZR/150 7.2 '14 7.2 '08 6.7 '18 5.3 '11 5.2 '16 3.7 '23 (I don't know how.) 3.6 '12 0.6 to 3.3: '19, '17, '13, '07, '21, '20 -1.3 to -2.5: '05, '15, '06, '22, '10 Worst: -8.8 2004 Only 2004 was a minus D winning team.
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Great SS defense is one of my favorite things to watch. Too bad, it has often been our opponent's SS doing the spectacular. The difference about this year, is that the surrounding cast sucks, too.
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Fangraphs has these team farm rankings: Red= Playoff Bound 1. BAL 2. CIN 3. LAD 4. BOS 5. NYM 6. TBR 7. PIT 8. AZ 9. CLE 10. MN (These teams had good farms a few years ago, but many prospects graduated and are leading their team to wins, now: 13. NYY, 17. HOU, 21. TOR, 28. ATL) It is very hard to win and maintain a top 10 farm, every season. ATL, HOU, TBR and LAD have probably come the closest. I'm sure someone can add other teams or show I am wrong about one of those 4, I listed. 2021 top farms 1. BAL 3. TBR 8. NYY 9. BOS 13. LAD 22. ATL 25. HOU 2019: 1. TBR 3. LAD 6. ATL 10. BAL 24. HOU 30. BOS
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It doesn't really bother me. It's more fun watching playoff games than regular season games, and it makes a ton of money, which helps pay for the drop in MLB attendance over the years.
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SIX, which is more than double the amount a crapshoot would predict. Lost WS in 2003 (NYY) Lost WS 2004 (STL) 3rd best team (BOS) won Lost NLCS 2005 (STL) 2nd best team (CWS) won Lost in NLDS (NYM tied w NYY) and ALDS (NYY) 2006 Won WS (BOS tied w CLE for best record) 2007 Lost in ALDS (LAA) 2nd best lost in WS (TBR) 2008 Won WS (NYY) 2009 Lost in NLCS (PHI) 2010 Lost in NLDS (PHI) 2011 Lost in NLDS (WSH) 2012 Won WS (BOS) 2013 (STL tied & lost WS) Lost ALDS (LAA) 2014 Lost NLDS (STL) 2015 Won WS (CHC) 2016 Lost WS (LAD) 2017 to 3rd best team (HOU 101 wins) Won WS (BOS) 2018 Lost WS (HOU) 2019 Won WS (LAD) vs 2nd bestam (TBR) short season 2020 Lost NLCS (LAD) 2021 Lost NLDS (LAD) 2nd best team (HOU) won 2022 For a 5 year stretch the best team won 3 times and lost in the WS the 2 other times. That blows away any idea that the playoffs are random (or a true crapshoot.) To me, it's farther away from being a crapshoot than it is being one. Just my opinion.
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A playoff contender!
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The Yanks took away a near homer from Devers, a couple games earlier. It's not just our poor D that is hurting, it is other teams' plus D. The chasm is enormous. One big and valid criticism of Bloom is that his strategies seem to be all over the map. He trades Renfroe to improve the D and (Cora) refuses to play Dugo in RF, despite the disaster it became. Then, he trades for Pham, moves Dugo to RF and suddenly, Dugo is fine in RF. I'm waiting for him (and Cora) to wake up on no Kike at SS, this year. This year, I do think the plan was to improve SS defense, but it backfired. The idea was Casas would be much better than the Dalbec/Franchy calamity of 2022. It hasn't been much of an improvement. The OF was a punt on 3rd down, for defense. Had Duvall played LF, maybe it would not be horrific, and the miracle advance by Duran on D, made it not as bad as we might have expected. 2B was a know drop off, as Story moved to SS, but Kike/Arroyo are not bad at 2B. The catcher tandem has not met defensive expectations, although it was hard to know what to expect, there.
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LOL, they were all breathing, too!
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Max, it's all subjective. Some might call just last night's game "disastrous." It kinda was, even if a bit hyperbolic.
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4 in 20 years may be significant, but it's also pretty close to a crapshoot, too. The rule changes that make it harder for winning and rich teams to build strong farms has given weaker teams a better shot. I think, before 2003, it was more of a crapshoot. More playoff games and wins needed counters this idea, though.
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I’m not a playoffs are a crapshoot guy, but surprises do happen.
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Exactly. We likely are not a 5.5 or 3.0 runs per game team. We might finish between 4.4 and 5.0.
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The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term
moonslav59 replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I like Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Wink in the pen, and what a unique and powerful thing it would be. Maybe revolutionary, even, but I doubt we can ever have that luxury, even with a 30 start season from Sale. We’d have to add 4 SPers or hope Pivetta can return to plus 5th starter status. Then it would still be 3! That would be expensive, either by money or prospects traded away- or both. -
I don’t think that was the goal, despite the playoffs are a crapshoot beliefs.
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Let the season play out, but as of now, I can’t disagree. I’ll make one point: if the JH plan was to just compete for a playoff slot, this year, regardless of what we wanted or expected, Bloom has missed the mark by 2-4 wins. Wait a week and we might be 1-2 GB a WC slot. (Not a prediction.)
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We better hope Chang stays off the IL!
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Indeed!
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The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term
moonslav59 replied to Fan_since_Boggs's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
C Wong/ McGuire OF Refsnyder Maybe 4thSP Crawford or Wink. -
That would be Chang then Story, but we shoulda got Iggy, faults and all.
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Story might help, but not enough.
