moonslav59

Yes, your strawman misread the room. You finally got one right. Congrats!

Yes, I am talking about last offseason. I only mentioned this as a reply to you saying Bloom "never made another offer." I actually agree with you on much of the whole Bogey situation. I don't agree with your wording or belief that the major mistake was "misreading the room," but I too, wish we had made an acceptable offer last offseason, or as you pointed out, before then too (even back to the DD years, which you seem to mostly shy away from.) If BorA$$ and Bogey would have accepted $162M/6, alst offseason, I'm 100% with you and others that it was a big mistake by Bloom & JH. If we know JH would have agreed to that, I'm in on it b eing 100% Bloom's fault. I also realize that even $162M/6 might end up being a bad contract, but I doubt it. I think Bogey will earn more than that, even without inflation adjustments. I think it was a mistake not to offer that, then, yes. I'm not sure he takes it, and I don't trust "reports" that say he would have, unless I hear it from Bogey or Borass, and actually, maybe not from Borass.

You still won't answer the specific "wow." Do you believe Bloom had an offer he liked and just chose not to offer it, because he misread the room and thought he could go lower, later? Do you think Bloom thought there was an offer he liked AND felt BorA$$ would accept but for some reason did not even bother to make it? To me, these seem like the only other options, and bot seem like bigger "Wows!" to me. Tell me the Wow! I never said I thought Borass would leap at the first lowball offer. You can't explain where my position is wrong, except by inventing positions I never held or even implied.

Only reports that support his position count. He even mentioned this report once and said it was not far from his $168M/6 position. Now, he acts like Bloom was wildly off base.

Love it!

I never mentioned he "might b e traded." That's strawman. I suggested it would take a trade like casas to get an ace, and that I preferred it being Casas over Mayer- the only two worthy of getting an ace. Geeesh. Again, you are the "reports" guy, not me.

Indeed, and the shifted farm building priority that actually began during DD's last 1.5 years in BOS. No major prospects have been traded away sine the 2018 deadline, and one could argue Beeks and others traded, then, were not top prospects either. 1. Limited winter spending budgets, at least up to the March 2022 Story signing, and still no real large and long contract since Price. 2. Intense focus on rebuilding the farm and not trading any top prospects higher than Beeks or Aldo Ramirez since the Sale, Kimbrel or Pomeranz trades. 3. No additions from the existing farm, other than Houck, since the Devers call up in mid 2017. He was acquired in 2013, so nearly 10 years of no major farm additions that impacted the ML club. Seriously, what sort of great expectations could anyone realistically have after the 2019 season? It's been 2 seasons since 2020, and we really expected greatness in 2 short years, despite those 3 factors? No, the problem could not possible be mistaken expectations: it has to be on the GM given an impossible task. Yes, that makes more sense and takes the heat of us having to admit we were wrong in having high hopes.

No, but the word "discussions" does make one wonder about the "amenable" aspect of the talks, if the report is even accurate.

No. Again with the strawman. I never said I wanted Casas traded or that we would, and he may never b e traded. I said all long we needed an ace, and trading for one seemed like the best way to do it. To get top talent, we'd need to trade top talent, and Casas made more sense than Mayer, because it seemed Bogey was all but gone, after the Story signing. I suggested they may think about trading Casas, and now it is reported they are in talks. You are the one so high on "reports." not me. I hope they don't trade Casas. I would not mind seeing a trade centered on Rafaela for Luzardo & MRojas or even Cabrera & Rojas. I've been talked out of wanting Lopez all that much, due to just 2 years of control, Garnett and Rogers look to iffy to give up Casas for, even if they add Rojas, Wendle and Berti. No pat on the back, just a mention that I took flack for thinking it was a possibility, months ago. (BTW, that also was when I still had false hopes on Dalbec as our 1Bman for years to come.)

Why do you think Bloom never made a second offer, and please, "misreading the room" is not an answer. Do you think the opposite? Bloom could have made an offer that would have been accepted b ut chose not to, because why? He didn't think he was worth what he, himself would have offered? Yeah, that makes sense, LOL! Or, because he never felt Bogey was worth what BorA$$ would have accepted or a near true market value at any point? Why did BorA$$ never give Bloom a number? Maybe the first Sox offer was too insulting. I'm fine with that answer. That does not automatically mean no counter offer ever being made was a big mistake, unless we know if it would be accepted and then earned by Bogey. What part of this position is so "WOW!" to you? Can you try being more specific?

MLBTR reports the Sox and Marlins are discussing a possible trade involving Casas. (Remember, I was called crazy for suggesting he might be traded.) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-have-pursued-triston-casas-in-trade-talks-with-red-sox.html I have to think any trade of Casas would involve a top SP'er coming to the Sox, not named Alcantara. Lopez only has 2 years remaining and Rogers, Luzardo and Garnett all have questions and are not really "aces." We do have Turner to play 1B, and if we acquire a RF'er, we could play Dugo in LF, where he belongs, and Yoshida at DH. perhaps where he belongs. Maybe we take on A Garcia's contract to lessen the return. Apparently, MIA likes Rafaela, too. I'd love to see a deal centered around a SP'er from MIA, A Garcia and M Rojas for Rafaela and maybe Duran/Dalbec/Murphy types, but if it takes Casas, then we would not need to take Garcia.

It was reported we were close to signing him, shortly before we found out he signed with the padres, so I'm not so sure why "reports" matter much, anymore to you or to anyone. I'm fine accepting that no offers were ever made by either side after that initial lowball offer. It does not change my position or beliefs than Bloom and JH never felt Bogey was worth what it would take to sign him at any given point on the timeline. I don't get why you think my positions is a "conspiracy theory" or other words you have called it.

Yes, I have said I do not think any second offer was ever officially made. Yes, I have said I am not aware of any asking price BorA$$ ever made. That doesn't change the fact that at no point did Bloom and BorA$$ ever come to a meeting point on an acceptable offer from either side. Why no offers were made from both sides, if true, is a big wonder, but I don't think I'm crazy to think and believe that Bloom never felt any offer he would counter with would have been accepted by BorA$$ and Bogey. Bloom either valued Bogey lower than what he felt BorA$$ would ever accept or never felt Bogey was worth whatever number might have been accepted had he offered it. I'm not sure why this position seems so unbelievable to you. Had the two sides ever been really close, Bogey would be here, now. No matter what all the swirling speculations and what ifs abound, that seems like an essential truth. Oversimplifying, yes, but a truth, nonetheless.

The thing is, they were so bad in 2020, that saying we will be better in 2021 and then 2022 was actually not lying. A lie has to be an intentional statement made knowing it is false. We all thought the 2021 team was better than 2020. We all thought the 2022 team was better than 2020- some felt better than 2021, too. As notin said, the whole "competitive" statement has changed with the extra playoff berths, so that might not be a lie, either. As far as I know, they have never said "highly competitive" since the DD years- just words like "better" and "competitive.' Competitive with who? The Orioles? I get your point, though. They have projected an image that while the farm is a top priority, the ML club has been expected to be playoff worthy in 2021, 2022 and now 2023. Again, I take it back to after the Story signing in March. Did most of us think we'd make the playoffs in '22? If most of us did, and I think that was the case, how can we now say, they knew we'd suck and lied to us all along?

If I had a dollar for everytime you said Bloom misread the room, we'd be able to have signed Bogey and Devers. Okay, even if there was never a set asking price given by BorA$$, we all know how he negotiates, and to me, it's not a clear mistake we never offered what BorA$$ would have accepted and finally did accept with SD. Neither of us know what it would have taken, and both of us are basing our positions on our opinions and beliefs based on speculation. The difference is, I know this and say this about my opinion. You act like it is a fact Bloom misread the room, when he might have known all along what was going on and never wanted Bogey at the price it would have taken to get him. Can we agree that he never made an offer BorA$$ would have accepted, otherwise Bogey would be a Red Sox, right now? We can disagree or agree on why or why not he never did, but we do know they never reached a meeting point acceptable to both sides. If no num ber was ever put forth by BorA$$, I'd find it hard to lay blame on a GM for not meting it. If no counter offer was ever made by Bloom beyond that $30M/1 added on, I'd certainly agree a mistake was made. Why not even try another offer? Maybe JH said no. Maybe Bloom convinced JH to not make another offer. Again, we won't know if that was mistake or not, until we see what Bogey does or doesn't do. I've never said Bloom is blameless. I don't feel the need to assign blame as much as you and others do, and I certainly don't feel the need to try and narrow the blame down to just one person, when there are so many complexities than go back years and years and involve many moving parts, the biggest of which is JH's ever-changing checkbook and not whoever the GM is.

Is the business worse than it was in 2020? Is the business outlook worse now than it was after 2019? JH & Co. chose Bloom for a reason. The same way they chose Ben, years ago. They knew we were heading into rough times, and the massive budget cut after 2019 proves it. You really think any business that slashes it's budget so drastically is thinking they will be better than their competitors that are increasing their budgets in 1-2 short years? Could the problem actually be with some of our expectations rather than what the new operating manager did or did not do given the parameters forced down his throat. You think DD would have won in 2018 had he been forced to cut the budget and not trade a single top prospect? Were the Ben years a "big mistake?" Maybe. They did can him and hire DD, bjut without the groundwork Ben left for DD, there would be no 2018, either, right? Maybe, JH decides to flip the script again, but somehow I think he wants to give the balanced approach a little longer and not swing the DD pendulum ever again. Is that a mistake or not? We'll see,

I totally get this point, and agree that this is probably how Sox management views it. I also think Sox management places the farm and long term future as the highest priority beyond maximizing profits. To me, it's about getting to the point of- being "highly competitive," and this is where I veer away from many here and likely Sox management. Almost from mid June on, my gut said there was no chance this team was going to win a ring, even if Sale, paxton and others returned and did well. I know that is not a scientific approach, but I was certain we'd not win a ring in 2022. By mid July it was a lock, IMO. It seemed blatantly obvious. Yes, just a few games behind in the WC seemed attainable, despite there being 3-4 or more teams b etween us and that last slot at any given time. It's not hindsighting for me. I'm not puffing my chest out and trying to claim I was right and all of you were wrong. I was dead wrong about our chances back in March, and I probably predicted more wins by that team than most others, here, so it's not about me rubbing anyone's faces in the end results, but even just a simple JD trade to get us under the tax line would have helped in many ways. I had hoped for much more, but I understand why they didn't have a fire sale. It would be interesting to know, if anyone in Sox management was lobbying for a fire sale, but were overruled.

The Mets would probably be dumb to trade Baty for Devers, but since they can lock Devers up forevers, they would almost certainly do it. The Sox better make a trade like that, if they know they are not going to extend him. Pissing off the fans should not be a reason to keep Devers for one year then get just another comp pick. They will be triple pissed getting nothing for him. It's just putting off the anger.

That's the part that confuses me. They seemed to make choices in the interests of not upsetting fans and revenue streams, yet they ended up pissing off fans more than I've ever seen, since the late 70's early 80's star purges. Do they really think most Sox fans are so dumb as to not see through all this and be more pissed than had they traded Bogey or even just JD? I guess they may think we have short memories and winning would help erase the anger, but nobody is super impressed with what they did, this winter to make winning a 2023 expectation or even hope for most fans.

1. The dog and pony show could have been what they were told to put on. 2. They may have truly wanted Bogey, but never met the meeting point with BorA$$ to get it done, so saying they wanted him was never dog and pony show, because it was the truth. Is it possible they really wanted him but never above $160M/6? If yes, where is the lie? You can say that was a massive "misread of the room," if they ever felt they could get him for that, but if they believed that offer might be close, again, it's not a dog and pony show. If Bogey does not earn $160M/6, it's not a misread of the room in any way, shape or form, either, but that remains to be determined. At this point we can opine about mistakes made, misreading rooms or whatever, but we won't know the results, until years from now. What we do know, now, is taht we could have gotten more than a lousy comp pick for him. That doesn't mean I'm saying that is the bigger or b iggest mistake made- it's just the only known one we have, right now.

I'd have been happy had we offered and Bogey accepted $162M/6, last March. I'm not sure he'd have taken it, but my guess is, he will earn that or more, perhaps much more. I can't imagine the Sox being so dumb as to think they'd take Bogey at $162M/6, but felt waiting until he became a FA would somehoe allow them to get him for less or the same. That leads me to think one of two things: 1. They did not think he was worth $162M/6, last March. 2. They thought he was was worth $162M/6, last March, but did not think he'd accept $162M/6, and so never offered that (which seems dumb, unless something BorA$$ told them made them feel an offer like that would have been pointless.)

They will never say "We did not want Bogey," even if they never did. That would be fantricide. More likely is they never wanted Boget at what they felt the market price was at anytime. They may not have wanted him at $25M x 6, when DD extended him 3 years ago. They may not have wanted him at $170M/6 at the time of the Story signing, although I'm not sure Bogey would say yes to either. They certainly did not want him near $280M/11. This doesn't mean they never wanted him- just that they never wanted him at an acceptable amount for Bogey & BorA$$, My position has been, all along, that they never felt he was worth market rates, and knowing this, they should have known they'd never re-sign him and should have traded him for better than a comp pick. They may have misread the market or call it "misread the room," if you wish, but either way, they were never going to meet the demands of BorA$$. It's not the first time a GM failed to meet a BorA$$ demand. The big assumption, being made here, is that Bogey at $200M/6 or 7 or whatever anyone concocts as an offer Bogey might have or would have accepted 1, 2 or 3 years ago would be better than not having him. This may very well be proven true, but it's not a given. It turned out to be true with Lester, as he did very well after we "let him walk," but it does not always work out that way. The Ellsbury case comes to mind as one many felt was a big mistake not extending earlier. While not many liked the amount the Yanks ended up paying him, he never cam close to earning even what we had felt we could have extended him to a year or two earlier. Chances are Bogey earns $170M/6 or $200M 8 or $225M/9, especially when you factor in rising salaries and inflation, but it is not a sure b et.

I'm fine with the larger mistake being called "not locking him up earlier," but at what cost? Probably, the best chance we had was when DD got him to agree to the $20M x 6 year deal with the opt out after year 3, which essentially extended him just one year beyond his initial FA date. I'm not saying this to shift blame away from Bloom. Bloom had his chances, too. It's easy to say, we shoulda-coulda way b ack, and now with salaries sky-rocketing, almost any number from years ago would look great, now, but looking great and being great are two different things. Deals made years ago would also have included more prime years than any deal made this winter. Of course, I wish we had locked him up before it came to think. Had DD offered Boegy $25M x 6, he might have taken it, and we'd have 2 more years of Bogey- taking him exactly to the end of his prime years. I'm not sure Bloom would have been allowed to rework Bogey's deal during the 2020 year of uncertainty, but he did have time before 2021 and 2022 to try and get things done. This whole make a low ball offer and then do nothing narrative irks me as being either a really dumb and repeated strategy by upper Sox management since the Lester fiasco or a misrepresentation of what really happened in the negotiations. I tend to think it's the Sox playing dumb games they keep losing, but part of me thinks they never wanted to "win" these negotiation games to begin with. They never wanted to sign Lester and near FA market value (the whole over 30 SP'er policy) and the same with Bogey. If this is the case, then, to me, the return or lack of one is the biggest mistake, as of now. If Bogey does great for the next 3-5 years, then the bigger mistake can be called "letting him go."

To me, this team would be clearly better on paper if we added M Rojas and Laureano via trades plus Fulmer as the final FA addition. We'd still be significantly under the tax line, so we could add players at the deadline and would not have to part with major FAs to get Rojas and Laureano. There are other players we could trade for or sign, but this team would look like a playoff contender: 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Story 2B 3. L Devers 3B 4. R Turner DH 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Kike CF 7. L Dugo/ R Laureano RF 8. R Rojas SS 9. L McGuire/R Wong C Bench: Arroyo & Dalbec SP: Sale/Paxton, Whitlock. Bello, Kluber, Pivetta (AAA: Crawford, Wink, Seabold, Mata, Walter, Murphy) RP: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Fulmer, Schreiber, Barnes, Joely, Brasier (AAA: Taylor, Mills, Kelly, German, Ort, DHern)

To me, the farm is the ultimate direction setter, going forward, but the 26 and 40 man roster has not progressed as much or as quickly as I had hoped, and certainly much worse than many has hoped. In all fairness, I did think we look competitive, last March- after the Story signing. Wacha, Hill and Strahm overshot my expectations, but still we got worse with out wins and losses. It's not easy projecting this team Just ask Jacko. The guy is like oh for his last 5.