moonslav59

Does the evidence show Devers is swinging at more bad pitches, this year? Out of Zone swings: 38.7 Career 40.3 in 2022 37.6 in 2023 In Zone swings 76.4 Career 77.3 in 2022 80.8 in 2023 Overall swing rate: 53.7 Career 54.5 in 2022 54.2 in 2023 He is swinging more than his career numbers, but as a result of swinging at more way more pitches in the zone and less out of the zone. He's making more contact, too> 67.1% Career out of zone[> 67.2 in 2023 80.9% Career in zone? 81.9 in 2023 (I'm no expert on these types of numbers, so please correct me, if I am wrong- somebody.)

There is more than one scenario, where he ends up a pretty cheap deal: 1. The team does not take the option, and Wacha says no to $16M x 3 remaining, and this could happen if Wacha starts 28+ games with an ERA under 2.99. Cost $7.5M/1 ($4M + $3.5M signing bonus) 2. The team refuses the option, and Wacha says yes to the player option, and this could happen, if he sucks or gets hurt going forward. Cost: $6.5M x 4 years Only the 3rd option looks expensive (Wacha takes the player option), but if he is doing as well as 2022-2023, it's still not a gross overpay, and could end up a bargain to SD. Cost:about $14M x 4

Whether it was luck or whatever, some catchers consistently got a 1 or more run better ERA from certain SP'ers nearly year after year, than the back-up. (Usually Leon v Vaz or Plawecki v Vaz, but earlier with VTek vs whoever, too.) 1 run every 5 games is a huge factor. One had to expect a learning curve with not just 2 younger and or new catchers to the ML team, but a near total staff changeover from 2022, as well. Maybe the improvement of late, is showing the learning curve is over. IP Leaders in 2022 180 Pivetta (demoted to pen) 127 Wacha GONE 124 Hill GONE 109 Nate GONE 78 Whitlock 77 Crawford 70 Wink 65 Schreiber 62 Brasier GONE 60 Houck 57 Bello 54 Davis GONE 51 Sawamura GONE 45 Strahm GONE 40 Danish GONE 40 Barnes GONE 38 Diekman GONE 28 Ort (demoted to AAA) 14 Kelly + 6 Sale (on IL) 100+ combined IP GONE from Robles, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, Familia, DHern, German & Feliz Catchers: McGuire 27 games started w BOS prior to 2023. C Wong 20 games started as a C w BOS prior to '23.

We are not "small market." Currently, we are high end "mid market (middle third,) and we have gone up and down in the past, winning rings after "going cheap" for a year or two. It's not making excuses or "apologizing" for anything. it's realizing the way it is and knowing no matter how hard we can reason that Henry can and or should spend more, if he doesn't, it is what it is. The fact is, JH has started spending more since March 2022 with the Story signing. The Devers extensión, alone, nullifies any talk of small market, but it kicks in, next year. It's not an apology. I think we all wish JH would spend more, but his history shows he will not go 3 years in a row over the line and still has 4 rings to his name. I'm not ready to call for another owner. I guess, if that's apologizing, to some, I'm guilty as charged, but I don't see it that way. I think, when JH hired Ben, his idea was to get back to the early Theo plan of establishing and maintaining a strong farm, while spending big, when needed, here and there. Yes, we were the top spenders for a few years, here and there, too, but not to the point where we were taxed at the 3rd year rates or incurred stiff penalties on drafts and IFA bonus pool money for over-spending. (The lower draft picks for losing Nate and Bogey could hurt, some.) The plan DD implemented worked very well, but it was polar opposite to what the early Theo, Ben and now Bloom plans and strategies. It is no coincidence that we only had one semi-meaningful prospect graduate between Devers in 2017 and Bello in late 2022. That's 5 years of basically nothing, as compared to so many homegrown studs we saw from Theo and all the talent we acquired by trading away much of Theo and Ben's farm by DD. We've seen an uptick in farm infusion, some looking real good. We've seen additions like Whitlock, Wink and Schreiber, all with 2+ more years of team control start to change the idea that we cannot improve on increasing our young pitcher production. That area still has a long way to go, but we have moved in the right direction: something the later years Theo, Ben and DD did not do. Again, this is not apologizing, but just pointing out some good aspects of Bloom's reign both now and looking forward, on the pitching front. The W-L results have sucked since the end of 2021- no doubt. With this budget, we should be winning more. That is on Bloom and the players who have not been meeting expectations based on their previous production and age curve projections. Maybe Cora is to blame for some of this under-performing. Nobody is pretending JH does not have money. We just can't force him to spend, and using his reluctance to spend or overspend as the reason for us losing, seems like apologizing for underperforming players, to me. If these pitchers pitched like they could since the start of April, and our hitters hit like they could (and did in April,) we'd be in a playoff slot, right now with a budget re-set in place and 2024 looking brighter. I still think JH will spend big, again. I've given up on projecting when that will be.

Indeed, but there does seem to be a consistent flaw in fWAR that penalizes pitch to contact pitchers who consistently get weaker contact than some higher K pitchers. As long as we know that, we can "paint" our own picture, but in some ways, I think WAR was designed to minimize the needs for having to add other "data points." It tries to take that away, as much as possible. Nobody uses it as the be-all-end-all, but how hard could it be to make adjustments for these type of pitchers, rare as they are?

I'm not arguing "bad luck" or anything, and one could point to Wacha's previous numbers before 2022, but this has got to be driving Bloom nutty: Martin Perez 4.65 BOS 3.36 TEX ('22-'23) Jeffrey Springs 7.08 BOS 2.53 TBR Nathan Eovaldi 4.05 BOS (20/33 GS last year) 2.49 TEX (13/13 GS this year, so far) Connor Seabold 10.55 BOS (6 GS/21 IP) 4.70 COL (8GS/54 IP) Michael Wacha 3.32 BOS 2.89 SDP (so far) A little different tangent: 2019 3.81 ERod 34 GS (0 GS in 2020) 4.28 Price 22 GS (0 GS in 2020 for BOS & LAD) 4.40 Sale 25 GS (0 GS in 2020 and not much afterwards) 5.52 Porcello 32 GS (0 GS for anyone, afterwards) That's zero GS'd from 113 GS'd from just these 4 guys! There might be just as long a list of pitchers who did better with us, but I doubt by this much, under Bloom's range. One could argue, Bloom saw the talent but missed on the timing. (He also really wanted Eflin (3.28 in 12 GS) and I think Heaney (4.05 in 13 GS) this past winter- just not enough to get them to sign with us.)

What is it, if both say no?

Two years in a row. I'm not so sure FIP works equally with all pitchers. Low K pitchers who get weak contact more often are penalized.

I said "some sense," and I think the idea was, he may play SS for 5 of the 6 years. Even that money for an .800 2Bman with near GG defense is worth it. I'm just saying your "no sense" point seems too much.

Boone gives days off right before a team day off and vs wrong-handed SP'ers, too? (At the same time?)

Top OPS after July 1st 2022: (230+ PAs) 1.228 Judge .967 Alvarez .962 Altuve .958 Freeman .958 Realmuto .936 J Turner (5th in wRC+) May 26th 2022-Oct 5 14th Turner at .867. June 15, 2022 to Today: (500+ PAs) 10th Betts .875 18th Turner .844 35th Devers .806 44. Dugo .797 49. Renfroe .790 50. Bogey .787 71. JD .760 88. Beni .734

I'm not sure why it has to be so rigid, if you feel the need to do it. I don't get the two days off thing, either. I don't keep track of other teams' strategies, but Cora might be alone on that part. A couple of times, he ended up giving big split guys a day off vs the better handed pitcher. I can't see why a switch to another nearby day would not work better. BTW, did it help our team in August and September of '22 being so well rested? (One could argue it did in '21, but the two key, second half hot hitters were Dalbec and Kike.)

Turner is notorious for being a 2nd half hitter, and last year was maybe his best 2nd half, ever. I know "last year" barely repeats itself, but he is showing signs of heating up. Yes, if Duvall can hit like 2 years ago, and the rest can regain just some of their early season magic...

He was a better defender than Bogey, even with a weakened arm. His offense was boosted by Coors Field but not by a whole lot more than Bogey's was by Fenway. He certainly ended up being way cheaper. The injury has killed the signing, but 4.5 years left is enough to gain some redemption. The deal looks awful, in hindsight. At the time, I can see some sense to the idea.

He did know Mondesi would start on the IL. Story had a known injury, and he knew he'd be out in enough time to add depth. Chang was not expected to be hurt. Kike had pretty good numbers at SS, beforehand, but his sample size was scattered across several seasons. Reyes is not a FT IF'er, let alone SS. Hamilton is the enigma. Mayer and others are too far away to have has anything to do with adding a short term SS solution.

It was probably the worst 400 inning stretch, I can remember (since 1971.) If you prorate Kike to 1200+ innings, his DRS would be -21. Here are Sox SSs by season since 1971: (-21 Kike pro-rated) -13 Renteria '05 -11 Bogey '17 -10 Bogey '16 -9 Bogey '19 -8 Bogey '18 -7 Kike '23 (411 innings) -6 S Drew '13 -6 Lugo '08 (after the injury & 671 innings- pro-rates to about -11) -5 Bogey '14- 880 innings pro-rates to about -9 over 1400. -4 Alex Gonzalez '06 in just 361 innings- pro-rates to -12. -4 Bogey '20 -3 Bogey '15 The shorter list... +14 Aviles '12 +12 Reese '04 (507 innings pro-rates to +32) +6 Lowrie '08 (386 innings projects to about +30) +6 Nomar (an anomaly) +6 OCab '04 (491 innings pro-rates to about +17) +5 Bogey '22 (anomaly?) +5 Cora '06 (434 pro-rates to +19_ +4 Gonzo '06 (966 pro-rates to about +7) +1 Cora '08 (386 pro-rates to about +4) (No others above zero)

WOO won big, tonight. Murphy pitched 3 innings in relief (4H, 0ER, 0BB, 5Ks) Dalbec is making a case for another look (or a trade): 4-6, 2 HRs and a 3B (only 1 K) He has 16 HRs and a 1.072 OPS in AAA Fitzy hit 2 HRs after coming in for EValdez. RHern has is OPS up to .823 by going 2-4 w his 8th homer. Hamilton went 2-4 w 2BB POR was rained out. GRE had some excitement in their win: Rogers went 6 no hit innings with just 1 BB and 11Ks! The team let up 2 hits. Anthony 1-4 w HR Jordan 2-3 w BB Paulino 2-4 SAL split two: ERC won (6-1) 5 IP. 2H, 1ER, 2BB, 5K (2.23 ERA) Coffey 2-4 w HR James 3-3 w two 2Bs My dark horse prospect, Luis de la Rosa lost (4IP, 5H, 3ER, 1BB, 3K) 3.93 ERA Simon went 2-4. Never heard of him.

I still think this can be the same team that won 7 in a row. Maybe we can go 10-1 in a stretch. Probably not, but maybe. The pitching has improved by a lot. The bats have not been a thing anybody really worried about, until mid Mayish. Right now, we are 5 back from the Yanks, who hold the final WC slot. TOR (4 Games ahead of BOS) and LAA (3.5 ahead) are between un and NYY. It's not impossible, and I'm not basing this hope on any evidence or hint of a positive trend coming, but I just don't think the team is as bad as it has looked over the past few weeks. Maybe we were also not as good as we looked when we were 4 or 5 games over .500, too, but there is still a lot of baseball left to be played. Other teams ahead of us have some major weaknesses, too.

Refsnyder rules LHPs.

I hate to bring this up in mid June, and it does not mean I have given up on the season, but the way we are playing, it seems like a fire sale might be a possibility or even a likely event. Some of our players will not be in demand, let alone high demand, but we can afford to pay most or all of their salaries, in order to improve the return. Even paying all of some players salaries may still not bring back much. Here is a breakdown of who we may put on the block: (Don't shoot me for listing players that are untradeable.) Last Year of Control (est 1/3 or remaining salary in $Ms) 6.5 Kike 6.5 Kluber (w option and no buyout) 2.5 Duvall 1.5 Paxton 1.0 Mondesi 2024 Last Year of Control 9.0 Sale w $27.5M in '24 and $20M option with no buyout for '25. 5.5 Jansen w $16M in '24 3.0 Turner w $13.4M player '24 option and $6.7M buyout (chances are he takes it and we don't buy it out.) 2.5 Martin w 9.5 owed in '24 2.0 Verdugo w 3rd/last arb in '24 2.0 Pivetta w 3rd/last arb in '24 1.0 Bleier w $250K buyout of option in '24 0.6 Arroyo w 3rd/last option in '24 3+ Years of Control I seriously doubt we trade Devers, Yoshida or Story. I seriously doubt we trade any promising young players. 0.5 Joely w $500K buyout in '24 and 3rd arb in '25 0.4 McGuire w 2 arb years left 0.4 Chang w 2 arbs left 0.4 Refsnyder w $1.9M in '24 + option for '25 w $150K buyout Dalbec may be the only prospect readily available

I think most teams try to plan 3 deep at each position, with some back-up covering 2-3 positions or possibly being forced to play an unfamiliar position as the 3rd stringer. The Kike at SS is different, because we knew early enough that Story and Mondesi were not going to play in April, so we added Park, and then switched to Chang. Kike was technically the #1, but Chang was always the #1 defender between the two (and Hamilton/Arroyo...) Reyes is not a great SS, but anyone is better at SS on D than Kike, at this point. I'd say, to start the year we had this... C: McGuire/Wong and Alfaro. Now, it's non 40 man catchers Caleb Hamilton, RHern or SScott 1B: Casas, Turner and Dalbec in AAA (Kavadas too far away for '23) 2B: Kike, Arroyo and EValdez/Hamilton in AAA (Reyes was added and turned out better than Kike at SS on D) SS: Story and Mondesi (IL) Kike, Chang, Arroyo with Hamilton mysteriously not available. (Mayer and others are too far away) 3B: Dever and Turner with Dalbec in AAA LF: Yoshida, Duvall, Refsnyder CF: Kike, Duvall, Duran replaced Tapia (Rafaela too far away) RF: Verdugo and Refsnyder, Tapia (Abreu maybe too far away)

It wasn't enough to keep Ben around. 1. I think the spending cuts are temporary and have already begun to be eased. 2. I think time will be given to correctly evaluate the farm building, and since many of Blooms highest picks were from HS, 4 years is not long enough. 3. I think the expectation, after 2020, of course, was to be better than .500 and maybe compete for a playoff slot by 2022 or 2023. (We jumped the gun in 2021, but look to be going two straight on misses. I'm not making any predictions, but with Devers and Yoshida in their primes, and Story moving beyond his, 2024 might be "the year" we spend significantly over the tax line, maybe including a bunch or 1-2 year deals, so a reset will be easier in year 2 or 3. (I said the same about 2023, so I'm not holding my breath.) The farm has started to make contributions, although some are faltering of late, and we hear a lot about the lack of good young pitchers on the team and in the farm. I don't disagree, but I do think there is an improvement, of late. After the Devers promotion in 2017, we basically saw Houck as the only meaningful player promoted until Bello, last summer. That's 5 years getting just Houck! (And, people wonder why we can't win. It's seem so obvious, to me.) Now, counting trades, waivers and Rule 5, these are the pitchers under team control until at least 2026 and who are 29 or younger: Whitlock (Rule 5- option 2026) Schreiber (Waivers- arb 3 is 2026) Houck (System- arb 3 is 2027) Bello (System- pre arb) Winckowski (Trade- pre arb) Crawford (System- pre arb) (Drohan might be our best minor league hope closest to ML ready.) I'm not going to brag about this list. Other teams have done better and much better, but this list is clearly better than any list we've had in a long time. Under 29. Under team control for 3+ years. Is this promising enough for JH to think Bloom gets a longer leash, as we wait for HS everyday players to mature? I have no answer. After what happened to Ben, and he won a ring vs Bloom's 2021 near miss, I would think Bloom is gone after 2023, but I'm wondering, if Bloom saw not giving Ben one more year as a mistake.

Only 5 Sox batters are over .700 in the last 2 weeks, and one is platooned: .913 Devers- rested, tonight .838 Turner- at 3B, tonight .780 Casas- .380 OBP .713 Wong- just 33 PAs .707 Refsnyder- just 19 PAs and playing, tonight Last 7 days: 1.123 Devers .882 Turner .801 Wong .764 Duran- not playing, tonight (Refsnyder 0-5 and .286 OPS) OPS Against Last 28 Days (55+ PAs) .566 Pivetta (.500 last 14 days) .593 Bello (.455 last 14) .672 Paxton (.551) .680 Whitlock (.727) .701 Sale (on 60 Day IL) .702 Houck (.715 last 14) .745 Crawford (.797) 1.130 Kluber (1.172) 25-54 PAs .400 Martin (.519 last 14 days) .408 Bernardino (.429) .611 Garza (.836) .716 Winkowski (.989) .846 Sheriff (1.010) ERA Last 28: in order of most IP (only 2 above 4.71) 2.79 Bello 3.00 Paxton 4.71 Houck 3.38 Whitlock 2.30 Sale (IL) 5.40 Crawford 2.70 Pivetta 2.19 Wink 8.44 Kluber 1.80 Jansen 4.50 Garza 1.29 Bernardino 3.18 Sheriff

I've never agreed with so many scheduled days off, and right during a hot streak is unforgivable. At least this one coincided with facing a lefty. You don't bench a hot hitter when your team is struggling to score runs.

SF is 35-32. If only…