moonslav59

Some Numbers... Pivetta 4.00 ERA/3.97 FIP first 15 starts of 2021 5.11/4.62 last 15 starts of 2021 3.23/3.67 first 16 starts of 2022 6.0/5.25 last 17 starts of 2022 Maybe we need to yank him earlier in games of give him extra days rest, sometimes. The guy is like a 2/3 slot SP'er the first half and a 5/6 the second half. Whitlock: 4.15 ERA/ 1.26 WHIP as a SP'er (39 IP/9 starts) 2.24 ERA/0.99 WHIP as RP'er (113 IPin 68 games) Let's hope the starting sample size is too small to project out. Kluber 4.34 ERA/3.57 FIP in 164 IP in 2022. )1.2 BB/9 led the league) 4.17 ERA/3.66 FIP last 244 IP ('12-'22) Gotta like the FIP. Need the IP. Bello 7.27 ERA/3.23 FIP first 7 games in '22 (5 GS) 2.59/2.70 last 6 starts in September 2022. He finished strongly, and 3 of those 6 starts were vs NYY and TOR. Sale & Paxton I could post numbers from their glory days, but for what purpose? They both are huge question marks, and my hope is that the two can combine for 33-34 starts and be effective. 3.17 ERA/3.54 FIP Sale from 2021-2022 in 48 IP. (Not far from 3.03/2.92 career) Paxton has 22 IP in the last 2 seasons combined )6.65/4.25)

Yes, but if it was actually paid "up front," how can the contract officially begin in 2024?

For some reason, I thought I typed 6th, but it came out as "th."

Yes, I understand your point, and it makes me think the taxable contract begins in 2023.

Devers is 6th highest.

I thought so, too, but I'm not sure they can give a singing bonus in 2023, but have it count and be spread out from 2024 to 2033.

That's what I keep saying. Sure, almost all of us think locking him up at $170M/6 would have been great, and it was a mistake, if we could have but never offered that, but even that seemingly "good deal" may not look all that great 4, 5 or 6 years, from now. I would not bet against Bogey, but it's all speculation, right now, and we don't even know if he'd have taken $170M/6.

Thankfully, yes. To me, many were false narratives fueled by emotions and anger to begin with. I'm glad we have something to be positive about. The pessimism, here was nearing something I don't even have a name for. It seemed like it was getting worse than the 30+ years of no rings I went through, and many more years for older fans than I. I get the frustration. I get the blame games, oversimplifications and the reasons for increased pessimism. I wasn't happy, either, and I still have deep criticisms on why we chose to spend such a big chunk of our winter budget on two guys best suited for DH, and who's secondary positions are LF (Yoshida) and 3B/1B (Turner)- all positions way down on my highest needs list. However, I felt the downward spiral was too extreme and fatalistic for my liking. I realize I am in a small minority in a few areas, and I'm not trying to preach that my way is better, or that I am a better fan, although I do apologize for coming across like that, at times. We are all Sox fans and want us to do well. To me, I think being a fan is to be as supportive or players and leaders, as much as possible, within reason. We disagree on the extent of what is reasonable and what expectations should be or should have been, but we all want the Sox to improve.

The Yanks just added Omar Minaya as a Senior Advisor. He joins Brian Sabean, who was added in the same position. They must think Cashman needs help.

I think they wanted to avoid having to pay Sale $218M x 7 after 2019.

cots has the Devers contract as the 6th highest of all time, in total value at $331M. That's $1M more than Bryce Harper's 13 year deal and $6M more than Seager's 10 year deal. In terms of $millions per year, he ranks 21st at $30.09M just behind Betts at $30.42M and ahead of these $30M players: Scherzer x 7 Machado x 10 Ohtani x 1 Price still remains the all time Sox leader in AAV at $31M x 7.

What about the narrative that nobody will want to sign or extend with the Sox anymore? That Devers and Bogey were close friends, and losing Bogey meant RD was all but out the door? That we are Tampa Bay North? I could list more.

Starting the deal in 2023 just marginally helps them the next 10 years (about $1.1M per year), but it would explain why they have not signed Andrus or didn't sign Bogey, too. The signing bonus part makes it seem like it starts in 2023.

Yes, and much of it was a result of a huge drop in XBHs (almost 30% from 2018-2019 to 2021-2022.) Men on base and RISP play a big role, too. I was impressed with Bogey's OBP and improved D numbers in 2022. He was still worth the deals we suggested. I'm just saying his power and run production number trends are concerning.

Yes, except in written form. Again, I never said it was all bad, just like this site is not all bad. I think it was you who didn't consider talk shows social media.

Yes, that is another way it may be structured. $17.5M salary for 2023 + $20M bonus= $37.5M for 2023. That might put us over the tax line or very near it. I think the tax line will either be $30.09M x 11 or $17.5M for 2023 and $31.3M x 10 afterwards, which would mean the signing bonus is paid in 2024 or counts towards that tax line number NOT 2023. It's a bit confusing.

They kind of contradict themselves, and I think they even edited their previous opening paragraph that says... "Though many outlets reported this as an 11-year extension worth $331MM, Devers and the Sox had already agreed to a $17.5MM salary for 2023. By MLBTR’s standards, then, he agreed to a ten-year, $313.5MM extension today. " Later, the article says this: In the short term, this won’t change the makeup of the Red Sox on the field, since Devers was already going to be a part of the 2023 club. But it could have an impact on the financial ledger. Devers was previously set to have a $17.5MM count towards Boston’s luxury tax but that number will now jump to $30.09MM. The specific breakdown of the Devers deal isn’t known, but the competitive balance tax is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal, so the breakdown won’t change the CBT calculations.

Now, you are doing what you criticize me of doing. I never said sports talk shows are bad or that all who listen or respond to them are bad. I said some of the opinions I heard while in New England were extreme, and that some of the talk show hosts stated things not supported by facts. I kinda think it's cool JH showed up at a talk show station and spoke up. A also, never tried to even imply that the influence of crybaby fans was always bad, like you painted my opinion as meaning. I do wish he had not listened to them at the deadline, but I'm glad he did on Devers, assuming it had something to do with these two choices- which we don't really know, if it had any affect at all on either choice.

True. Many hit the wall around 32 or 33. Jim Rice dipped a little at 31, had two more decent years, then kinda declined quickly, and his age 36 year was pretty bad, but I think he has vision issues. I like Devers approach, despite the free-swinging aspect. I think he'll be fine until age 32 or 33, and maybe not be a drag from 33-36.

MLBTR says $30.1 Fangraphs has $30.1M for 2023: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox I'm not sure who is right.

I would not be surprised, either. If he never regains his power, a higher OBP more than makes up for it. To me, his full value will be tied to his defense and his age curve. As I have said, I think he will earn $170M/6 pretty easily. Anything beyond that is more speculative and expected. Now, how much value ids translated to dollars has to do with the market rise rates, too, so we'll see. I wish him well, and would have liked to have seen him stay, especially if we could have gotten him at $170M/6 or less, but with Devers under control, I'm fine with the the choices they made, overall.

I know you feel JH's "time has come." I'm just going by what you said. I figured your "one of the bad guys" statements was tongue and cheek, but you did say it, and it fits the "used up his usefulness" narrative. I won't ask you to clarify, because you don't know what that means.

I know you feel that way. Some of us don't. My guess is many talk show listeners feel different about JH, now, but I'll leave that for you to figure out.

It's all averaged in on the AAV, but if the deal technically starts in 2024, I think the "signing bonus" cannot be given, now. I think it is being called an extension, so it starts, now. $30.1`M x 11 on the tax line. $17.5M + $20M signing bonus for 2023.

36 is not really that far beyond prime, and that will be his age, year 11. Most of his years will be before age 32. It's a great deal, on paper.