moonslav59

If you count that sweep and the 3-2 win over CLE, they ended the season at 41-45, and yet these Yankee fans are gloating, like they are defending champs, or something. Yes, projections have them rightfully ranked ahead of us and other ALE teams, but talk about question marks and relying on dubious or injury-prone players. Their list is about as long as ours. The difference is they have 2-3 solid studs in Judge, Cole and maybe Stanton to our one (Devers), but the rest are pretty much as questionable as our and other ALE teams have. Cole: He's let up 9 ERs in his last 20 IP in the postseason. His 3.84 ERA/3.90 FIP over his last 22 starts of 2022 is pretty good, but it does not match: 2.50/2.64 in 2019 2.84/3.89 in 2020 3.23/2.92 in 2021 2.78/2.56 in his first 11 starts of 2022 He turns 33, this year. Judge just had perhaps the best season since Barroid Bonds, and it will be hard for him to repeat that at age 31. Stanton has put together 2 seasons in a row with 450+ PAs at an .821 OPS. He's 33, and these are the 3 Yankee "givens." Now, the questionables: Rodon: He just turned 30 and might have the best starts for a SP'er since 2021, so why is he a question mark? Well, 310 IP in the last 2 seasons is not spectacular, and his record before 2021 can be frightening, depending on what stretch you choose to look at. 9 games started '19-'20 (5.74 ERA). His career numbers before 2021 were fine, but not great (4.14 ERA in 92 GS'd from '15-'20.) Kluber '15-'20: 134 GS 3.07 ERA C Sale '15-'20: 147 GS 3.21 ERA Paxton '15-'20: 119 GS 3.72 ERA Now, I'd be a hypocrite to say the last 2 years don't mean as much as the previous 6 years, but previous years do matter. Cortes: This kid looks like the real deal, and at age 28, one could rightfully argue he is not in the "questionable category." He's had an awesome 42 starts over the last 2 seasons with a 2.61 ERA, so why am I calling doubt to his projection? Kind of a small sample size. Severino: Soon to be just 29, this guy's GS'd record since 2018 is worse than Sale & Paxton, yet somehow, Yankee fans brush off Sale & Paxton while having high hopes for Sevy. . 2019-2022: 22 GS 2.85 ERA (Much better ERA, but way fewer starts) 36 GS 4.09 Sale 35 GS 4.18 Paxton Montas, German, Schmidt: Some nice depth, but some are hurt and others are up and downers. Holmes: He's had a nice season and a half run, and like Cortes, is close to being off the questionable list, but it's only been his last 93 IP that have been impressive. He was stunning over his first 38 outings in 2022 (0.46 ERA), but his ending raises questions: 24 games 5.92 ERA/ 4.59 FIP and .748 OPSA Loaisiga: He's been a pretty good pitcher for 3 years, but nothing all that great (3.05 ERA/3.21 FIP). Unlike most Yankee pitchers, he did very well after Aug 22, but pretty much sucked over the first 4 months of the season. Peralta: He's had a couple very good seasons with the Yanks Trivino: He finished strongly for the Yanks, but was very unreliable before that. Kahnle, Marinaccio, King, Weissert, Abreu, DGarcia: Meh. Catchers: Trevino & Higgy: .655 team catching OPS in 2022. Good D, though, but these guys are not a net plus. 1B: Rizzo turns 34, this year. He has done well with the Yanks 0.804 OPS), but he was showing serious decline since his great 2019 season, except for '22: .755 2020 .792 2021 .817 2022 2B: Torres/LeMahieu: Torres has been trade bait for a couple years and for good reason. He's never come close to how he looked from '18-'19. He's had a .730 OPS over the last 3 seasons. 3B: Donaldson/LeMahieu: Josh is a 37 year old cancer growth. DJ is no where near who he was in 2020. He turns 35, this summer and has a .721 OPS since 2021. SS: Kiner-Falefa: Good glove: .642 OPS. Nuff said. LF: Hicks/Cabrera (Stanton): LOL! CF: Bader: Pretty good get by Cashman, but losing Montgomery was horrible. He turns 29, this year and hit .650 in 2022, while playing just over half a season. He's never had more than 427 PAs in a ML season, and that was back n 2018. RF: Judge: He's great, but is highly unlikely to improve or even repeat 2022. DH: Stanton (Donaldson): Stanton slipped to .759 in 2022 at age 32. That's about a hundred points lower than his previous worst season as a rookie baCk in 2010. Once could say he is a question and nasty or Clay are not.

A lot comes down to expectations vs hopes. I doubt any Sox fan expected us to be ranked ahead of the Yanks before this winter began. I'm sure many hoped we'd have done more, me included, but my expectation was to get better- a lot better. Is 6-9 games better good enough? To most Sox fans, no. Before the winter began, I had higher hopes we'd be looking at maybe an 8-12 game improvement over 2022, but 6-10 seems more likely, to me. We've left a lot of cash on the table, but with incentives and deadline deals possible, maybe it's not as much as it appears to be. I feel like an Andrus and Chafin signings would have got us closer to 9-12 more wins, but I like just about every move made, this winter- one by one. I had hoped for a bigger splash here and there: more quality over quantity, as I like to say, but having so many choices has it's advantages, too. Within the last 12 months, we have made 3 long term signings: Devers (1 + 10), Story (6) and Yoshida (5.) We had gone about 3 years without one. (Sale was extended in March 2019.) This winter, we also added way more 2 year-deals, instead of the pattern of 1 year deals we've seen since the Sale extension. While 2 year deals don't really instill much of a sense of continuity, it does offer more stability in the roster as so many prospects are looking to join the 26, this year and next.

Indeed, and I seriously doubt even 75% of those optimistic projections will happen. Maybe 50% is being optimistic about the optimistic projections. I do wonder how many we will need to happen to be relevant in 2023. I'm thinking if 33% come true or very near true and another 33% come somewhat close, we'll make the playoffs. The big two if, IMO, are Sale and Yoshida. Those two, alone could make major impacts. We all know how fickle RP'ers can be, but it's nice to have one that looks better than good, on paper, but seeing it happen in 2023 is another thing. I think optimisim over the pen is fully justified. The rotation is a grab bag of what ifs, but there are a lot to choose from, including up and coming Bello, Mata, Walter and Murphy and sophomore hopes like Crawford and Wink. I'm probably more hopeful about our catchers than just about anyone else, and we'll have to wait and see the influence they will have on our pitching staff. Since much of our staff is new, too, an adjustment period would have been needed, even if we had kept Vaz & Plawecki. Casas, Mondesi and some upcoming prospects might make a big difference. Duvall & Turner need to beat the age curve to help this team. Verdugo and Kike have shown flashes of plus play, but haven't always shown it. Yes, we need a lot to come together, all at once, but most teams have similar situations at multiple positions: they just have more "givens" than we do, which, of course, is why they are ranked ahead of us.

I've felt worse about many a Sox team, around this time of year, including some this century.

It's not a good sign, but he could be fine.

As noted, these were meant to be as optimistic as possible, within reason. No doubt, much of this won't happen, but is any single optimistic projection unreasonable? One could easily come up with a reasonable but pessimistic post that might scare the bejesus out of any Sox fan.

I think the projection of 4th place is not absurd, but it assumes none of the big 3, NYY, TOR and TBR decline much in 2023. I see a ton of upside with the Sox- perhaps more than some of the teams ranked ahead of them, but of course there is a ton of downside, too. Don't be shocked, if we give you guys a run or finish in 2nd place.

The depth of Wong, Chang, Tapia, Alfaro, Dalbec, EValdez, Duran and maybe Rafaela and others may not be all that great, but the above list is 10 long.

Here's an optimistic, yet realistic view at our hitters: Rafael Devers: I got my Devers Forevers and at age 26, I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could be on the cusp of a career year. He’s had 2 seasons between .890 and .916, so I do not think it’s a stretch to get up to .950. Masataka Yoshida: He's the wildcard in the line-up with the potential to be a real head-turner. It's hard to project from one league to another, but this guys has a great hitting approach. His last 5 season were fantastic and had an OBP over .400 in his last 4 seasons. 2020: .351/.453/.512/.966 2021: .336/.426/.557/.983 2022: .336/.449/.559/1.007 Is it unrealistic to think he might hit this in MLB? .310/.400/.450/.850 Justin Turner: The guy is 38, so expecting an improvement of even no regression might be unrealistic, but the way he finished 2022 at age 37 offers hope for a nice 2023 season. Over his last 59 games and 246 PAs: .349 9 43 (.419/.549/.968). He also has way better stats after 32 than before: 2017-2022: .870 OPS 2009-2016: .787 OPS I realize he hit .788, last year at age 37, but I do not think it’s unrealistic to think he may hit over .800 with the Sox in 2023- maybe even .850. Adam Duvall: He’s 34, but he’s not too removed from his best career seasons: .882 in 2019 .833 in 2020 .772 in 2021 (led the NL in rbi with 113 and had 38 HRs and 57 xbhs) Maybe he can find the magic, again and come close to .800. Alex Verdugo: His career has not followed the age curve progression bell curve. He was better at ages.. 23-24: .300 18 59 (.827 OPS) 598 PAs than 25-26: .284 24 137 (.754) 1248 PAs I’m thinking .780-.820 is not too much to ask. Enrique Hernandez: Kike has had some up and down seasons and ups and downs within some seasons, but his finish to 2021 was pretty freaking amazing. 1.260 in 50 playoff PAs .876 last 334 PAs of 2021 His 2 best career years were .836 in 2015 and .806 in 2018. He’s had some memorable postseasons with the Dodgers, too. Is it too much to expect a .780-.820 season in 2023? Christian Arroyo: He’s had a .747 OPS since 2020 (102 OPS+) which is not bad for a 2Bman. He just needs to stay healthy and maybe hit .750. Adalberto Mondesi: He’s got a ton of potential but needs to stay healthy and put it all together in his “walk year.” He’s got 133 SBs in 358 games. He averages 60 SB per 162 games. He did hit .804 in 2018 and has some power (18 HRs per 650 PAs.) If we can just get a healthy season from him, we might not need great stats. Just get on base over his career .280 mark and play plus D at SS. Tristan Casas: He showed some impressive plate discipline in his first 95 PAs of his MLB career. The .358 OBP is a nice sign. The 5 HRs projects to 30 per 162, so that’s nice, too. I’m thinking .780+ would be something reasonable, yet optimistic. Reese McGuire: he started his career, nicely with Toronto (.882 in his first 138 PAs), hit .582 from 2020-2021 and then bounced back after the trade with the Sox to hit .877 in 108 PAs to end the season in ’22. I’m not expecting .800 in 2022, but maybe one could realistically expect .740 or better, or to lead the team to a better catcher Ops than 2022 (.694) while providing better defense and intangibles with the staff.

I have seen him as our 5th starter, but due to injuries, he's often been moved up the slots.

The more you talk, the more I get pumped up about our chances.

Nothing we say matters, in terms of what the Sox do, but we keep spewing our thoughts.

Since this is the "realistic thread," I'm going to try and present the most optimistic, pink glasses look at the 2023 Red Sox, while still remaining as close to keeping it real, as possible. Just a start with the pitchers. I'll do the hitters, later. Chris Sale: Why not start with the biggest swing/question mark on the roster? Although he turns 34 in March, it's not like pitchers have never had career or near career years at his age- surgeries and all. His first 2 seasons with the Sox were about as good or better than any other 2 year stretch by a Sox pitcher in history. 59 GS 29-12 2.56 (175 ERA+) 0.924 WHIP and 7.1 K/BB If he can come anywhere near these numbers, watch out MLB! Corey Kluber: Look at the same 2 years as Sale above ('17-'18) 62 GS 38-11 2.58 (172 ERA+) 0.932 WHIP and 7.0 K/BB Kluber and Sale could be called the best pitchers from 2014-2018. We are far enough removed from then to have realistic hopes of repeating those numbers, but coming close might not be a total pipedream. James Paxton: The forgotten one and for good reason. We all know the bad, but he did have 20+ GS from 2016-2019 and 24+ from '17-'19 with these numbers: 81 GS 38-17 3.54 (119 ERA+) 1.161 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB Garrett Whitlock: A bit of wildcard as a starter, but he has awesome numbers, so far after 2 years of mostly long relief and spot starting: 152 IP in 77 games 12-6 2.73 1.062 WHIP and 5.1 K/BB It's not a stretch to think this guy could be special in 2023. Tanner Houck: He seems like the odd man out of the rotation, but he may fill in Whitlock's role as a high leverage long man in 2023 with some meaningful spot starts here and there. Like GW, he has some impressive numbers to start his career: 146 IP in 53 games (20 GS) 9-9 3.02 1.123 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB Nick Pivetta: Since coming to the Sox, he's become perhaps one of baseball's best 5th starter, especially in terms of durability and dependability. 66 GS 21-20 4.47 ERA (99 ERA+) 1.343 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB Is it a stretch to think he may put together a full season like some of his nice runs he's has in the last 2 years? 2021 first 11 GS: (team 9-2) 3.77 ERA (3.27 FIP and .657 OPSA) 2022 first 16 GS: (team 9-7) 3.23 ERA (3.67 FIP and .630 OPSA) All he has to do is put these two stretches together and BAM! Brayan Bello: He got his feet wet, and started to show signs he's going to stick around awhile. After his first 3 starts he went... 45 IP 3.18 ERA (2.69 FIP and .724 OPSA) All this with a .380 BAbip. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about him. Kenley Jansen: He's 35, but he's been one of MLB's most consistent longtime closer since Mo. He is no Mo, but I'm not sure any MLB closer since Mo has gone 12 straight years with 50+ IP (except 2020) and an ERA under .372, every year. He's only had 3 seasons over 3.01. He's not the same guy as the 2011-2017 version (2.08 ERA/0.872 WHIP), but if he can just give us what he's done since then, we'll be getting a huge boost at a slot we have struggled with since the second half of 2018: 292 games/ 161 saves (4.3 seasons, counting 2020) 3.08 ERA/ 1.045 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB Chris Martin: There are not many RP'ers around with less BB/9 than CM. (1.2 Career and 1.0 since 2019 with a 10.1 K/BB- one of MLB's best rates since '19) 173 IP 2019-2022 in 183 games 3.17 ERA (144 ERA+) 2.87 FIP and 1.029 WHIP He turns 37 in June but seems to be aging well. John Schreiber: Just give us something close to 2022, and we'll have solid set-up man: 65 IP in 64 games 2.22 ERA (190 ERA+) 2.50 FIP and 0.985 WHIP with a 3.9 K/BB Career: 2.95 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB Richard Bleier: He will turn 36 in April but has aged pretty well, so far. His career numbers are pretty impressive: 3.06 ERA (3.49 FIP) 1.201 WHIP and 3.5 K/BB His WHIP, FIP and K/BB has been better since 2020: 3.09 ERA (almost identical to career) 3.09 FIP, 1.18 WHIP and 4.4 K/BB Just give us 45-50 solid IP. Joely Rodriguez, Ryan Brasier, Wyatt Mills, Zack Kelly and Kaleb Ort, plus SP/RP'ers Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy offer 10 promising choices to fill any holes the above players may open up. Sometimes quantity is a good thing. We certainly have plenty of pitchers with past records of quality.

I pretty realistic take, although not too in depth. Only Yoshida is a longer term deal other than the mega Devers extension, which begins, next season, but a lot more 2 year deal and 2nd year options than any other season under Bloom. Jansen $32M/2 Martin $17.5M/2 Turner $22M/2 (player option for '24 included) Kluber $10M (with incentives) + $11M club option (no buyout) Bleier $3.5M + $3.75M option ($250K buyout) J Rodriguez $1.5M+ $4.25M option ($500K buyout) Chang $850K + 2 arbs W Mills Pre-arb (We added McGuire at the deadline: $1.25M + 2 arbs) One year players added, or extended: Kike $10M Duvall $7M Paxton $4M Mondesi $3.1M

Trying to find one thing... He's got a ML deal, so I guess there is noe real choice.

Are we all in agreement, that as of today, Chang will be the 26th man?

It is pretty telling that only 2 Yankee players finished '23 strongly.

Keeping Cashman and Boone is the best thing that's happened for the Sox since JH took over control.

Why does how well some Yankee players did at the end of 2022 matter so much, but not with guys like Turner?

How about the 13 game stretch to end August? 3 @ NYY 4 @ HOU 3 v LAD 3 v HOU We end the season with 4 games at BAL. Our west coast road trips are split into 3: Mid May 3 @ SDP 3 @ LAA (day off then 3@ AZ) Mid July (3 @CWS) 3 @ OAK End July to early Aug. 3 @ SFG 3 @ SEA

Yup. Middle IF'er it is.

If we are going to be any good, this year, we should get out of the gate on a winning note. We start the season... 3 v BAL 3 v PIT 3 @ DET 4 @ TBR

It's crazy, but I love it! Boston Red Sox Schedule | Boston Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball or chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://mktg.mlbstatic.com/redsox/documents/2023/2023-regular-season-printable-schedule.pdf

If you don't like the talk of schedule, then ignore it. We did not suck vs non ALE teams. In fact, we were damn good. "Get over it?" Get over what? It's not bothering me. I'm just stating facts and trying to figure out what may or may not help us, this year- player changes, different strength of schedules, injury factors and more. It's what this site is for. I'm not "wha, wha, whaing." it seems to me, you are doing so. Get over the fact that it is an issue of discussion!

Only if we end up better than NYY, TOR & TBR. Based on 2022 or projected 2023, we have a harder schedule than they do. In terms of 2022 vs 2023, yes, we all are helped by the schedule change pretty equally.