moonslav59

Every team "worries" about the bottom of their 40 man roster. It is often where their stars of the future are hanging out. Winning and losing teams pay an enormous amount of attention to those 38th, 39th and 40th slots.

He's a career +4.5 UZR/150, but has been up and down over the last 4 years. He's +69 in DRS, career, but just +1 over the last 3 years, combined. That's not bad.

I'd trade Dalbec or Duran for Crawford plus maybe $2-3M. I mentioned Crawford, because he'd be one year vs Andrus 2-3, and he would cost anything in return- other than someone close to DFA level, anyway. He's just one SS of many out there. You mentioned DeJong, who has 3 years left. There is also Mateo, Mondesi and a couple others being dangled.

I hate to ask for clarification, but what were some of the "3rd options" that have failed, before, and what makes them 3rd, as opposed to second options? I'm not trying to bust your balls or overanalyze, but I'm curious about this "signature 3rd option in the fork in the road" comment. I'm pretty sure he and many GMs have had to settle on 3rd, 4th and even lower options, but what makes this "signature." If reports are true that Abreu was our first winter option, I'm glad we got our 2nd, 3rd or more choice, assuming it was Yoshida. But, that's just me.

Now that Correa is actually signed, the SS options are not that great or plentiful on the FA market (Andrus, Iggy, Simmons,) but there seem to be a more than 3 SSs on the trading block. I think it's a matter of several teams looking at trade options while telling the Andrus camp to not sign, quickly, until they explore other options. He is going to sign, somewhere and will likely get more than what anyone projected. I'd love to see us get him, even if for 3 years. We could trade him once Mayer wins the job. However, a trade might be the better option, anyway. We could possibly trade for a guy like BCrawford, who is owed $16M/1. We probably could get him for Dalbec or maybe Duran or Murphy. We'd still be under the tax line enough to get a pitcher or 2Bman, now or at the deadline.

Maybe someone did tell him surgery was an option, or even that "someday, you will need surgery, if you keep playing 2B or SS." I doubt someone said, "You should have surgery now," or "I recommend you have surgery, now," but who knows. Even if that was said, at any time, the doc might also have added, "Rest and rehab may work, too." There are so many unknowns in this situation, it's hard to form an opinion. That's not to say, we can't conclude we made the wrong choice by signing him, unless you think he's worth $140M/5, which in today's market, he may still come close to that in production, over the last 4 years of the deal- doubtful, but possible, maybe.

How many non pitchers have some degree of damage in their elbow and rest and rehab works? I know it depends on the extent of damage, which may or may not be known precisely and what position the guy plays, like SS v 1B, but my guess is there are dozens and dozens of MLB players who have gotten bye without surgery. Correct me, if I am wrong. Again, I'm not saying mistakes weren't made or that the blame should not be focused on just one or maybe two guys, but it's not a clear issue, at least right now. We may or may not find out details, later that focus more of the blame on one guy over another (or more,) but right know, we can only assume. I do think it's safe to assume Story, Bloom, JH, top brass and the team medical staff knew there was an issue and a risk. They made the wrong choice based on accurate or faulty information. We don't know, if there were factions within those who made the call that swayed the decision to sign Story, or who was in opposing factions, if there were some. They may have all known the risk, but thought he was worth it. Hell, for all we know, they may have decided that even if he missed a year, he was worth about $140M/5, too. It's not a simple process or decision. On the Sale signing, I do think they expected he might miss a full season and would still have been worth $145M/4, too. That's just my opinion, and it looks like Sale's deal might end being more like $145M/ 1.5 or $145M/2.

Yes, that was precisely "not so bad." Make a list of the players out hurt in 2021 and previous years. Plus, you traded for two guys on the list.

I'd feel better with Arroyo, EValdez and even Bobby Dee at 2B than Duran in CF. We could also sign Andrus and trade for Wendle. It can't be about the money with Andrus. It must be he wants 3 years or 2 with a hefty 3rd year option buy out. I'd say give it to him, just don't have a no trade clause.

What could be the cover-up? The docs said, "Major injury risk," and Bloom ignored them? The docs said "moderate injury risk." and Bloom took the chance and now doesn't want people to know it was all on him? Is the cover-up about top brass meetings where Bloom went to the mat defending taking the risk and had to convince JH and others the risk-reward was worth it? Who know? Maybe something like this did happen. I'm not sure why following the law and not discussing medical information with the public "sounds like a cover up." Somehow the info got out on why Correa's contracts were not finalized, so maybe we'll hear more about Story's situation, at some point. I know some are dying to find out it was all or mostly Bloom's fault, and when your the GM, that's the way it works, and often, it is the GMs fault or mostly his, but as of now, it's kind of speculative.

I don't wonder. There are confidentiality laws about talking about these things. Yes, nobody knows what the physical revealed and what sort of risk level was given by the medical staff. We may never know. I'm sure they knew there was a risk, despite what Dr. Biggio and Dr, Bagwell thought, it's not a given that every player with this type of elbow issue ends up under the knife. We can speculate all day. We can lay blame all we want and focus it on one person or a few. The fact is, we made the wrong decision and now have to hope he can redeem some of his value in the last 4 years of his deal. Another large and long deal looking like a stinker for the Sox. I can see why the team has avoided these types of deals, recently. Since the Price deal, only the Story deal has been longer than 5 years (Sale, JD & Yoshida were 5, and Nate was 4.)

I'm no expert on prospects, even our own. I was high on Seabold, last winter. LOL! Here are a few prospects I think might take a big step up, next season: soxprospects.com ranking 3. Bleis- It's hard to imagine taking another big step, but this 18 year old looks to be a true 5 tool wonder. 8. Walter- His next step should be at the ML level. The guy put up some impressive numbers at AA/AAA: .585 OPS Against and 75 Ks to 7 BBs in 58 IP. He's 26 and does not have to really improve on his numbers; he just needs to translate his skills to the bigs. I know- easier said than done. 7. Romero- He was a surprise pick in the first round in '22, but he looked very impressive. 10. Perales- Seems like he might be poised to bust out in '23. 14. Lugo- He's my sleeper pick, this spring. He had some early hype and took a while to start showing promise, but he's still only 21. 6. Mata might end up being a solid MLB pitcher as early as this season. 11. Paulino- He's just 20 and seems like he could be a plus in the IF or OF. Kinda raw. 5. Yorke- He did not look all that good, last year, but I'm expecting a bounce-back. The fact that SP's kept him at #5 shows they still have faith, too. 16. Bonaci- He's only 20 and looked much better in '22. 9. Anthony- I admit I don't know much about this guy, but he got an overslot bonus picked in the 3rd round. Let's hope Bloom & Co. knew what they were doing. 19. Elmer Rodrigues-Cruz is supposed to start in Salem, this season. He's 19 and has some serious upside. 18. Hickey- Despite being 23, he put up some nice numbers, last year, including almost as many BBs as Ks. If he can stick at catcher, maybe we found someone good. 20. Kavadas- He struggled after his promotion, but his numbers were off-the-charts. I still have hopes this fellow Domer can keep rising. Older prospects like #17 EValdez (24 yrs old) hit the ball real well in '22, #25 Zach Kelly (27) might end up being a key piece in the Sox pen and #23 Frank German (25 yrs old)showed serious numbers in the minors, last year (.495 OPS Against was the lowest of any Sox pitcher with 49+ IP), There are also Abreu, Murphy, Drohan, Ro Hern and a couple other older prospects that might step up. Other younger prospects that may shine: 12. Wikelman (20) 15. Jordan (20) 21. Coffey (18) 28. Brannon (18) 29. Paez (18) 32, Guerrero`(22) 35. F Encarnacion (17)

No. You are overanalyzing. The whole world, except Bloom, knew Story was going to need surgery, even Biggio and Bags! Until we can get a GM that overrides the medical recommendations of his staff, we have no chance at ever winning again.

Only on the Red Sox, yes... OWWWWW!!!!

Agreed, and while judging a farm is highly speculative, we have several players like Paulino and Rafaela. We might also see Bleis take another big step up. Maybe I'm just pink galling it here, but...

Nothing on Google. Might have just been a drunk caller on talk radio.

He was a better football player.

I'd be thinking of... FA: SS: Andrus, Iggy, Simmons CF: Duvall Trade: (BTV Value/yrs) SS: A Rosario 10.8/1, J Mateo 3.2/3, A Mondesi 1.5/1, Kiner-Falefa 0.8/1, B Crawford-0.7/1, N Ahmed -5.9/1, P DeJong -7.1/3, J Baez -14.4/5 2B: Wendle 2.5/1 and many others CF: M Taylor 2.8/1 and many others

He's just the first to go down. Your team is maybe the most injury prone team in MLB the last few years. Last year was not so bad, so expect a double whammy, this year.

I'm not sure the Tigers, who sign Baez and the Rangers, who signed Semien and even Seager are happy either, but at least they are healthy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Sale was pre-arb when he signed that deal with the CWS. He was scheduled for 3 arb years from 2014-2016. It paid him $850K for his final pre-arb season in 2013, then $3.5, 6.0 and 9.15 before the $12M in what would have been his first FA season in 2017. The kickers were the club options for the next two years, which turned into no- brainers at $25.5M then $15M for the final season under that deal. That deal was signed in March 2013. It turned out to be a great team-friendly deal, but Sale had only 286 IP under his belt, at that time, and mayb e injury concerns led him to take all that guaranteed money. Note: he had finished 6th in CY Young voting in 2012, his first full season in MLB, He had 71 IP in 2011.

With arb numbers now finalized, cots has the Sox estimated at $203.5M or $29.5M below the first tax line. Fangraphs has us at $209.4 or $23.6 under. Spotrac has us at $204.9 or $28.6 under. Which ever service is right, we should have over $23M to spend on at least 2 from these 3 positions: SS, 2B or CF and maybe even another decent pitcher.

It's a major swing. The bWAR and fWAR differentials are much more pronounced with pitchers, ad fWAR uses FIP-based metrics way more than bWAR. I think averaging the two really seems to get the placements right.

Exactly. While his FIP was 3.39, it was 3.46 in 2016 and over 3.12 each season from 2011-2013, too. Yes, there was concern, but the risk-reward calculation was not some obvious no-brainer choice. The reward side of the choice was enormous. The risk side was, too. We guessed wrongly. It happens with all GMs.