moonslav59

Sox interested in Andrus & Profar. Must mean we get neither. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-interested-in-jurickson-profar-elvis-andrus.html

Soxprospects.com has us signing: Tony Ruiz OF $1M+ Yoelin Cespedes SS $1M+ Luis Arredondo IF ~$200K Argeny Sanchez RHP Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Moises Semerite OF/SS Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Nathanael German IF Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Starlin Nunez IF Dominican N/A Jan-2023 Yoiber Ruiz SS Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Franklin Arias SS Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Jhoan Solarte OF Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Andruw Musett C Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Jesus Garcia RHP Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Kleyver Salazar C Venezuela N/A Jan-2023 Chad Delancey IF Bahamas N/A Jan-2023

I agree.

The Sox seem to be doing okay with IFAs after a little down stretch. I'm not worried.

Yup. I hope this kid works out. I hope we can sign one or two more noteworthy IFAs. We lost $500K in IFA bonus pool money by signing Story.

Cespedes compared to Howie Kendrick... Red Sox 2023 international prospects signings WWW.MLB.COM The Red Sox are in the process of adding an international prospect that has been compared to a young Howie Kendrick. According to industry sources, the club has agreed to a deal with Dominican shortstop Yoeilin Cespedes, who is the No. 25-ranked prospect on the Top 50 International Prospects list.

I'm fine with that. Most of the best young players are put at the hardest position: SS. They don't end up there, often enough. Plus, by the time this guy b ecomes ML ready, Mayer will be close to the end of his team control.

I know my point was more about the percentage of money spent on DH/LF and DH/3B/1B, and I get the idea that we were never going to spend big at SS, but it was and still is a high priority need area, and I do still expect us to add a SS by opening day. I hope we also add a 2Bman, so Kike can play CF FT. My 4th with is to add a real RF'er, but I'm not sure that happens. Maybe tied for 4th is adding another solid pitcher, but I think we will not do that. I think we will add 2 players from SS, 2B and CF (Kike moves, if we get a CF'er.)

I'm remaining hopeful my whole point ends up being moot. Add a SS who can defend well. A one year deal makes the most sense, but more is okay. Add a 2Bman, maybe Wendle. Keep Kike in CF. Add a RF'er, maybe Dugo is traded to fill the SS, 2B or RF need. I'd like to see us add Fulmer or Chaffin, but if we do the 3 things listed above, I'm totally fine with spending a lot on LF/DH and DH/1B/3B. I like Yoshida's prospects. I think Turner will do great in Fenway and offers us nice depth at 3B and 1B. He also makes Dalbec expendable or nice AAA depth at 3B, 1B, DH and maybe even 2B or eventually LF. Something as moderate as Andrus, Wendle and Laureno would do the trick for me. Mateo, Mondesi, DeJong or BCrawford are also SS options. Michael Taylor from the Royals might not cost us much. I'm sure there are some 2B bridge options out there beyond Wendle, too.

Story vs Bogey Bogey: .872 Home .758 Away Story: .958 Home .739 Away While the differential is stunning for Story, his away OPS was not very different from Bogey's. Many of Story's away PAs were in pitcher's parks like LAD, SDP and SFG. .658 in SF (200 PAs) .981 in AZ (199) .691 in SD (188) .770 in LA (151) Those were the 4 largest sample sizes outside of Coors. The next largest was 70 in CHI Cubs' park. Maybe they felt he'd be helped by Fenway nearly as much as Coors, and he did end up with a nearly 200 point differential: 2022 .841 Fenway .642 Away

I agree. The narrative over this seems contrived and misdirected, but that's not surprising. We don't know what the medical reports said, and we can assume many different things. I'm pretty sure the reports did not say he would need surgery or was at a major risk of needing it, shortly. If that was true, it would mean they felt he was worth something like $140M/5 not $140M/6. You are right, he went the end of last season and the whole 2022 season without any signs of elbow issues or discomfort. Maybe he's the only one who knows about the term discomfort, if he never told anyone he had it. Again, it always seems to come down to the "blame game." We have this incessant need to assign blame when anything goes wrong, and finding one guy to blame makes everything much neater and provides some sort of closure or whatever. I'm not saying I never assign blame, or that finding out who was responsible for something going wrong isn't a necessary step towards making sure the problem is not repeated, again, but really, in this case, who is to blame and why? Maybe 99% of doctors would have given the same report Bloom & Co. got. B ecause Story got hurt, were the doctors wrong? To me, it's no so black and white. Maybe most GM would read what ever report Bloom was handed and would decide not to sign Story based on his injury risk. Maybe not signing him had more to do with the money sought or as you pointed out, the Coors factor and the unknowns on how his skills would transfer to another home park. Was Bloom's mistake not to heed the injury risks pointed out by the docs or the money, years and Coors factor, or the fact that we already had a SS and were trying to keep him happy and wanting to stay in Boston? Did Bloom even have the final say? Was Bloom trying to convince JH to sign or not sign Story or vice versa? Before I assign blame or majority blame, I'd need to know a lot more than I know, now, and I may never know what needs to be know to assign final blame percentages. (My guess is my assignment of blame would likely differ from others, even if we had all the facts.)

It's not just who we lost, it's what we got at other positions and who we have at areas of need. Nobody looks and say, "We need to replace JBJ in RF," but we needed a RF'er more than a DH, and we ended up getting Dugo there. All of a sudden, defense doesn't matter in RF? We gave up Renfroe over this same issue! 2021 OPS by position: .661 RF (We had Ref and Duran on the Nov depth chart, here) .671 CF (presumably, Kike was the solution for 2023.) .683 1B (presumably, Casas was the solution w Dalbec in reserve) .694 C (not a high offensive priority with the Sox.) .694 LF (Dugo at .732 was going to play LF FT, before the Yoshida signing) Yes, I agree that we needed a big b oost on offense, but my point is about the positions we chose to boost. We have Devers at 3B. We have Casas and Dalbec at 1B- not sure bets, but better than Duran and Ref in RF or Arroyo needing to play middle IF. We had several rotating DH options from Dalbec, Arroyo, Dugo or Ref and maybe EValdez that, to me, looked like better options than we had in RF & SS. I get that there were not many FA options in RF. Nimmo was way overpaid, and I'm not saying he'd have been a better signing than Yoshida, but to me the positional priority list was out of whack. I get yours and notin's points, but to me, this was a mistake. Forcing Dugo to RF is a mistake. The Turner signing by itself is not upsetting, and like I said, if we add a decent SS on now 2Bman or CF'er/RF'er, it will no longer be an issue. I'm just saying, as of right now, our priority list looks out of whack.

LF, 3B and 1B were not our high need areas for 2023, 2024 or beyond. DH was a need, but it should never be a top need, unless you are a stacked team to begin with. Your point about SS is a good one. To pay big for a SS would have meant large and LONG, and we don't need LONG. We may still fill that short term need, yet, and that part of my position takes a major hit. That being said, I still think spending so much 2023 AAV and extended financial commitments on 2 guys that should be DHs and as secondary positions play LF, 1B and 3B is not what we needed most, now or in 2024 and beyond. We look all set at 3B and 1B. I've been crying about us having 3 LF'er in our OF for a couple years, now, and that was before we signed Yoshida. I'm excited about Yoshida and Turner's projected offense, and I do think they'll help us a lot. I had hoped we'd trade Dugo and get a real RF'er, and that would have made the Yoshida signing more understandable. Dugo has 2 more years of team control, so we needed a LF'er for 2025>>> not 2023 and 2024. Casas is somewhat of a question mark, so maybe having Turner might help at 1B, if we need him there. My point is, simply put, I wish we'd spent more on a solid SP'er, even if by trade, SS and RF than DH/LF/1B/3B. Do you disagree, in theory.?

Yes, but during the whole season, you had less than previous seasons. 2019-2020 were horrific. Judge, Stanton, Sevy...

Doctors rarely say "never" or "definitely" anything. Most likely, they told Story and the Sox management that he might need surgery, one day, but that rest and rehab should work. It's not like rest and rehab never work, especially for non pitchers. Maybe the risk of surgery and lost time was a factor in our $140M/6 offer. Maybe it would have been $165M/6 had the docs said there is zero added risk due to any pre-existing conditions. I kinda thought $140M/6 was on the low side, but I was unaware of the lingering arm issue, until after the signing. $325M/10 Seager $175M/7 Semien (We were linked to his name, last winter) $140M/6 Baez $105M/3 Correa w opt out I liked Baez, especially his defense, but he had a much shorter history of good offense than Story and had these career numbers before signing (162 game avg): .265 28 87 (179 Ks in 612 PAs) .307 OBP .477 SLG .783 OPS Story .272 34 98 (188 Ks in 681 PAs- a slightly lower K% than Baez.) .340 OBP .523 SLG .863 OPS Defense 3.5 Baez UZR/150 and 49 DRS in 3650 innings (better rate) 2.8 Story UZR/150 and 69 DRS in 6300 innings

Do we need a LF'er, 1Bman and 3Bman in 2024 or beyond? Devers is locked up forevers. Casas has 6 years. DH is the easiest slot to fill. Even going by just AAV, the percent is still way too high on positions far down my top priority list. 18 Yoshida (it would be 21, if the $15M posting fee was divided by 5 and added) 16 Jansen 11 Turner 10 Kluber 10 Kike 7.5 Martin 2.0 Rodriguez Either way you slice and dice it, 2 of our top 5 signings were at positions of low priority needs. $29M AAV out of $74.5, which is nearly 40% of the AAV spent. If you count the posting fee of $3M x 5 years, it's over 40%. To me, and this is just my opinion, our top needs were: Urgent 1. SS 2. Closer 3. SP #1 or #2 Semi Urgent 4. RF 5. RP 2/3 6. SP 3/4 Secondary Needs 7. DH 8. RP 4/5 9. C LF, 3B and 1B were near the bottom of my list. Were they high on your list? I can see DH being higher than #7, but in no way was LF/DH a top 5 need. We made it our number 1 signing. We made DH/3B/1B our 3rd highest signing. How is this not an issue worthy of criticism or even harsh criticism?

I'm trying hard to not stir the pot. I'll only say I was chided for calling him a playoff hero. BTW, he was also a major factor getting us into the playoffs. He hit .809 after April 17th and .874 over his final 80 games of 2021 (363 PAs). His per 162 game average after June 19th was... .267 30 89 (79 XBHs and 107 Runs) 89 RBI was not bad for a lead off hitter. The team went 50-42 in that stretch as many other player struggled at the plate. Kike hit .897 in the last 13 games, when the Sox needed every win and went 8-5. Maybe "hero" is too strong a word, but he was an essential player in us making the playoffs and going as far as we did once in the playoffs.

Almost every team, every year, uses over 40 players in a season. To think caring about #38, #39 and #40 is not important is a losing strategy. One big reason we sucked in 2020 was that our bottom 10-12 sucked. In 2020, 19 players got a PA and 30 pitched to at least one batter. In our one good season under Bloom, we saw 23 non pitchers get up to bat and 34 pitchers throw a pitch (not counting the 3 everyday players who pitched.) That's 57 different players. So, #38-40 out of 57 are not important?

He also signed Kike, who had one of the best playoff seasons in Red Sox history. .408 BA .423 OBP .837 SLG 1.260 OPS 49 AB in 11 games 5 HRs 4 2Bs 1 3B 9 RBI 9 Runs scored I won't call him a "playoff hero," anymore. Apparently, that is only allowed for players on teams that win rings.

So, we'll get #25 and no other top 50's. Hmmm...

Agreed. Red Flags existed with the 4 year Nate extension, too, but to a large extent, he earned his $68M/4. I don't think there were any red flags on Price, other than his age, and that signing was "wrong," too, although one could argue he helped us win a ring. One could also argue, we could have won without him, especially if we spent his $31M x 7 wisely. HRam and Pablo? HRam had health issues prior to the signing, and Pablo had weight issues to worry about. The Porcello 4 year extension had no red flags, and he remained healthy all 4 years. All 4 years were within prime (ages 27-30,) and he did great one year, okay another and not so good inn 2 others, except to give 30+ GS'd and 175+ IP, every year. It's hard to determine whether our high risk signings did any worse than those with no or few red flags, at the time of the signings. All longer term signings are risky. Of course, the Sale and Story signings had known risks, up front, but I think those risks were factored into the contract total amount given to Sale, Stroy, Nate and HRam. Age is also a factor in many signings.

I'm sure he's not done, but even if he signs Andrus and trades for Wendle, he still spent the bulk of his winter spending, beyond the Devers extension that begins in 2024 on... 90M/5 on DH/LF Yoshida (+$15M posting fee) 32M/2 on a closer Jansen 22M/2 on DH/3B/1B Turner 18M/2 on RP2/3 Martin 10M/1 on SP3/4 Kluber (or $21M/2 w club option) 10M/1 on CF Kike (extended before the winter) 2M/1 Joely (or $6M/2 with club option) $112M spent on DHs with their positions being ones way down on our needs list (LF, 3B/1B.) Not counting the $15M posting fee. $72M spent on high priority areas (Closer, SO, RP, RP, CF) Even if we spend the remaining $23-27M on high need areas (SS, now 2B or OF/P/C), we'll have spent more than half on low priority areas. This, to me, is a major blunder by Bloom & Co., more so than not reaching some imaginary number that would have gotten BorA$$ and Bogey to accept or the Story signing based on faulty or accurate medical reports, which was actually not a "this winter" decision.

The "Bogey Fiasco" was not made the day he signed with the Padres. It was made months or maybe even years earlier, or so it seems.

Abreu got $58.5M/3, which is about between Yoshida and Turner's deals. I think Bloom was looking for a big addition to the offense and Abreu reportedly was his first choice. To me, Yoshida filled that desire more than Turner, but certainly Turner was signed to be the DH, like Abreu would have been. To me, this was one of Bloom's biggest mistakes, and I find it interesting that those who seem to delight in blaming Bloom for everything and anything, raely bring this up. Of all our winter priorities, why was DH number 1? I know we lost JD, but we did have Dalbec, Arroyo, EValdez, Refsnyder and others that seemed more capable than our depth at SS, CF/RF, SP1/2, SP3/4, Closer, RP2, RP4, C... Our biggest two signings were DH/LF (Yoshida) and DH/3B/1B (Turner). Yes, we filled the closer and pen slots well enough. Yes, we ended up signing a decent 3/4 SP'er, but why 2 DHs over a SS, CF/RF and SP1/2? We had a LF'er (Dugo.) We had a 3Bman (Devers) and 1Bman (Casas). We signed two guys best served at DH or LF/3B/1B. Talk about head scratching.

My guess is some doctor, at some point, might have said, "You may need surgery, one day." I guess there is a chance one or more doctors might have said, "I recommend surgery, now," but also offered other plausible options. I doubt a doctor said, "You need surgery, now," (before last week, anyway) and Story and the team decided to go against the recommendation. Maybe a second opinion said rest and rehab had a good chance of working. We seem to be going around in circles- caught up in a swirl of what ifs and speculations.